Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Betfair punters see coalition govt for UK next GE.It's hard to disagree with that on the grounds that a lot of the soically conservative labour voters who voted Brexit will not return their red wall votes and they likely won't vote Tory either.Tories lsot the 40-50 age group at the last GE for the first time and I suspect the cost of living/expensive housing/no school places means they won't be returning either.

Looking at my own vote(I'm 51,long term Ukip voter until 2019),I won't be voting Tory or Labour.I won't be the only alienated by the corruption moral/financial in Westminster.

Which  virtually guarantees some form of electoral reform under a Lib/Lab govt which could spell doom for the Tories.Labour are well aware that they could be shut out of power for years by the skewed pro Tory electoral system we currently have.

Interesting article on the admittedly left wing Political Betting site

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/22/something-to-ponder/

If the Tories lose the next election, changes to the voting system (always demanded by the Lib Dems) may see them locked out of office for a generation. And what happens if the Tories discover, in opposition, that its new coalition of voters doesn’t have much in common post-Brexit? The party could, literally, fall apart.

In one sense, the Tories have more to fear from a Starmer-led coalition than an outright Labour victory. The reason electoral reform has never happened is that the first-past-the-post system tends to create majority governments and so suits both Labour and the Tories when they are doing well. So, once in office, they lose interest in reform. Even a Labour leader like Blair, who was sympathetic towards the idea of a “progressive alliance”, wasn’t going to change the Westminster voting system that delivered him a 179-seat majority. But a Labour Party that had failed to get 326 seats, and hadn’t garnered a majority in close to two decades, would be far more open to electoral reform. And this would be the price demanded by Lib Dems for their support in a hung parliament.

 

 

The problem with people being alienated by corruption is that rather than vote for another party, they don't bother voting. If somehow everybody had to vote, the party in power wouldn't like it, that's why they never try to make it happen.

This political piece had some amusing bits in it (might be of interest to @feed)

Quote

 

Political parties as varied as France’s Rassemblement National and the US Democrats have been consoled in defeat by the fact that, while they might have been routed electorally, they did at least win a majority of votes among the young.

Defeated parties like this kind of thing because it allows them to imagine that happier days are around the corner, and that victory can be achieved without having to do anything so grubby as getting the other lot’s voters to support you. It’s much more congenial to imagine that you will win because your opponents will be dead rather than admitting they have a point.

Triumphant parties like it as well, because it is also more comforting to see your beaten opponents as young and stupid rather than having to think about whether they might also have a point. The problem is that although age is, at the moment, a good predictor of how someone will vote, the generational divide in most democracies is an illusion. Look closely and such “new divides” look a lot like the old ones — in which asset ownership and wealth are still key in explaining electoral behaviour.

The latest study to underline that truth, by Jane Green of Nuffield College, Oxford, and the University of Reading’s Roosmarijn de Geus, in many ways simply deepens our understanding of what happened in the UK’s 2019 general election. They explain that the Conservative party’s success came in expanding their reach further into the ranks of the economically secure: winning not only the votes of middle-class workers with secure jobs and stable incomes, but also the support of people in working-class occupations who enjoyed the same.

In many ways, that is wholly unsurprising. When James Kanagasooriam, the Conservative pollster, coined the term “red wall”, he did so precisely because these were seats with large numbers of voters who, in other parts of the country, were already reliably Tory. The Conservative party’s electoral achievement hasn’t been in attracting a new sort of voter, but ending its long-term underperformance among the same type of voter elsewhere.

cont...

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F6f11e75c-5edb-4ad9-bd26-05352c40321c

 

 

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

If they don't get a grip soon and start behaving like were in a reflation cycle (which we are) Inflation will get out of control and their problems will be far worse than trying appease BTL'rs and Bennie recipients

Some of us are better prepared than many working if I get lucky I will be entering the jobs market just has the shits reving up.if I get realy lucky house prices might fall and I choose The perfect time again then again I might fuck up badly lol

[Joncrete Cungle]

26 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-govt-poised-to-announce-multibillion-pound-cost-of-living-package-as-sue-gray-report-expected-12620711

Hyperinflation on the cards?

Printy printy. GFC style.

[Axeman123]

28 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-govt-poised-to-announce-multibillion-pound-cost-of-living-package-as-sue-gray-report-expected-12620711

Hyperinflation on the cards?

Distraction tactic IMO, and/or making Pishy the bad-guy that has to say no.

I bet this comes to nowt. BJ is really under the gun.

[King Penda]

31 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-govt-poised-to-announce-multibillion-pound-cost-of-living-package-as-sue-gray-report-expected-12620711

Hyperinflation on the cards?

Well I was not going to have a drink tonight but I did say wait for the cavelry on the hill but it’s turning up faster than I expected which was sept or October 

[Democorruptcy]

29 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

For the moron who have leveraged up say 90% then it’s worse. If they sell for £400k, have debts of £380k and will only see £320k they just won’t sell.

That seems to be backing up my earlier suggestion that this reduced CGT might partly be to help bankers. Reducing an overstretched LL's tax liability, so they can pay off more of their debt to the bank.

[Shamone]

4 hours ago, WICAO said:

London is a place for the rich or the benefits class IMHO.

100% 
Which is why it’s such a shithole.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Shamone said:

100% 
Which is why it’s such a shithole.

You missed the word “total “. Sorry to point that out. I’m not a grammar nazi. Not even a nazi. Correct though. Shithole.

[Virgil Caine]

17 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Distraction tactic IMO, and/or making Pishy the bad-guy that has to say no.

I bet this comes to nowt. BJ is really under the gun.

Johnson can’t manage his own finances let alone the nations. He has always been a showboating politician relying on publicity stunts and looking for quick fixes. That said I doubt many people will be that keen to take on his job at the moment. I noticed that  when Jeremy Hunt was asked if he fancied being Tory Leader his reply was that he would interested “at some time in the future”.  Labour won’t be sorry that the GE is a couple of years away either.  I am sure they will remember that winning two elections in 1974 in a similar economic crisis did them no long term favours either. as they got thumped in 1979 and were out of power for the best part of two decades.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

...I doubt many people will be that keen to take on his job at the moment...

The interesting thing about that is Pishy recently making the Sunday Times rich list, which is obviously untennable for a PM during a cost of living crisis. I had previously heard that you more or less had to apply and provide evidence to be included, especially if assets are sensibly held in privacy-focused offshore vehicles or trusts. Allegedly many people outside the public eye would rate the top echelon but don't even appear.

Did Pishy ask to be in the list to nobble himself, because he doesn't want to be the one to eat the shit-sandwich of 2022-2023? I am sure that the Johnson camp could have called in a favour to have him included based on public information of course. 

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

[MrXxxx]

I know a few of you folks were recently asking about brokers, and AJ Bell have just announced a reduction in their charges as follows...don't know how it compares to others but if you are currently 'researching' you may have missed this:

What we’re changing   If you deal in international stocks, you’ll pay less in foreign exchange (FX) charges per deal. To give you an example, for a £6,000 deal, you’ll currently pay £60 in FX charges – this will go down to £45 from 1 July.   We’re also lowering our dividend reinvestment service charge to a flat fee of £1.50, making it more affordable to reinvest your income automatically.   And we’ll also be simplifying our custody charge for funds. You can see full details of the changes we’re making to our charges below.   Foreign exchange charge on international dealing and foreign currency funds    Existing charge  New charge  Deal value  FX charge  Deal value  FX charge  First £10,000  1.00%  First £10,000  0.75%  Next £10,000  0.75%  Next £10,000  0.50%  Next £10,000  0.50%  £20,000 +  0.25%  £30,000 +  0.25%

Dividend reinvestment charge    Existing charge  New charge  1.00% (min £1.50, max £9.95)  £1.50

Funds custody charge – SIPP, Junior SIPP, Stocks and shares ISA and Dealing account     Existing charge  New charge  Value  Annual charge  Value  Annual charge  First £0 - £250,000  0.25%  First £0 - £250,000  0.25%  Next £250,000 - £1m  0.10%  Next £250,000 - £500,000  0.10%  Next £1m - £2m  0.05%  Value over £500,000  No charge  Value over £2m  No charge

Transfer out charges   You won’t pay any charges for moving your cash and/or investments to another provider.

Other charges updates   ISA and Dealing account cash withdrawals – CHAPS charges   We’re now paying all withdrawals from an ISA or Dealing account by Faster Payments. That means you’ll no longer need to request and pay for a CHAPS payment when you want to receive your money quickly.   AJ Bell funds – annual ongoing charges   The annual ongoing charge for our AJ Bell funds is now fixed at just 0.31% for our Growth funds, 0.45% for our Responsible Growth fund, and 0.65% for our Income funds.

Changes to interest rates    From 1 July, we’ll pay the below interest rates on cash balances:     Cash balance  SIPP/Junior SIPP  Interest rate (AER) for this tier only  ISA*/Dealing account  Interest rate (AER) for this tier only  Above £100,000  0.25%  0.15%  Above £50,000 - £100,000  0.15%  0.10%  Above £10,000 - £50,000  0.10%  0.05%  £10,000 and below  0.00%  0.00%

*Includes Stocks and shares ISA, Lifetime ISA and Junior ISA

[Froggy2000]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

[HousePriceMania]

I thought this lot were toast before the pandemic... The magic money tree is chopped down and so are they 

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

Theatre IMO...it would all be D noticed if there was anything truly revolutionary about it

[MrXxxx]

5 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

Well Starmer of course!....well, when he has got up off his knee...or was it knees?.....

[Virgil Caine]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The interesting thing about that is Pishy recently making the Sunday Times rich list, which is obviously untennable for a PM during a cost of living crisis. I had previously heard that you more or less had to apply and provide evidence to be included, especially if assets are sensibly held in privacy-focused offshore vehicles or trusts. Allegedly many people outside the public eye would rate the top echelon but don't even appear.

Did Pishy ask to be in the list to nobble himself, because he doesn't want to be the one to eat the shit-sandwich of 2022-2023? I am sure that the Johnson camp could have called in a favour to have him included based on public information of course. 

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

The worst outcome for Starmer would be the Tories oust Johnson, the new leader calls a a snap GE using his majority to force a poll and Labour end up in power as the largest party but dependent on the Lib Dems in some sort of rerun of the mid 1970s. In my view the Labour leadership will be earnestly praying that Tory MPs are more worried about hanging onto their seats for a couple of more years than replacing Johnson. It is in Starmer’s interest to let the current PM stay in power attracting more and more negative headlines in the run up to 2024.

[Axeman123]

Just now, Froggy2000 said:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

Well, thats the $64 000 question.

Probably the biggest macro-economic factor at the national level over the next 12 months will be how government policy handles things; firehose of money, or stoicly refusing. Now we have another unknown. The last thing we need is an ambitous careerist trying to be popular. David Davies woud be my preference, and then a new leader mid-2024 to prepare for the latest possible GE (which seems baked in to me). 

[HousePriceMania]

Petrofac up 0.19%

Snapchat down 43%

🤣🤣🤣

[King Penda]

14 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

Abbott

[Shamone]

4 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Abbott

 

[feed]

People he been calling it for Boris for months.  But arguably he is a better position than he was earlier this year.  

The local elections ended up being worse for Labour 
Rishi (assuming that he ever really wanted it) is out of the game at least for now, if not permanently
and no other serious contender wants the job, and really who would right now.  

I suppose there is a chance that they dump Truss in as May rerun, but that's a huge risk when Boris follows the narrative and they've two years to go.  If the want him out, much better to let him eat as much of this shitshow as possible and dump him with a year run up for a new leader.  
 

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The interesting thing about that is Pishy recently making the Sunday Times rich list, which is obviously untennable for a PM during a cost of living crisis. I had previously heard that you more or less had to apply and provide evidence to be included, especially if assets are sensibly held in privacy-focused offshore vehicles or trusts. Allegedly many people outside the public eye would rate the top echelon but don't even appear.

Did Pishy ask to be in the list to nobble himself, because he doesn't want to be the one to eat the shit-sandwich of 2022-2023? I am sure that the Johnson camp could have called in a favour to have him included based on public information of course. 

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

He is finished i think.His government is a disaster.If he announces £1k for the bennies tomorrow then the middle will be outraged more than they already are and will stay at home come elections.I was talking to a few staunch Tories who despise Labour,but wont vote Tory until this lot are cleaned out,they are staunch.Strikes everywhere will be next as workers try to keep up with the bennies.

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Theatre IMO...it would all be D noticed if there was anything truly revolutionary about it

There have been so many "speculations" from Kuensberg et al about almost that exact photo ( ie "are there photos of him near bottles?" "our sources say he may have been photographed with a drink in hand" etc), that I think those photographs have been circulating for months and until now were effectively D noticed.

6 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

..In my view the Labour leadership will be earnestly praying that Tory MPs are more worried about hanging onto their seats for a couple of more years than replacing Johnson...

Allegedly there is proof that Labour members and staff actively sabotaged their general election campaign to get rid of Corbyn. Labour will need to put that to bed, or wait for Corbyn to die, before they can risk a leadership contest of their own.

Can you imagine the damage Angela Rayner could do to the UK over the next 12 months as PM?

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is finished i think.His government is a disaster.If he announces £1k for the bennies tomorrow then the middle will be outraged more than they already are and will stay at home come elections.I was talking to a few staunch Tories who despise Labour,but wont vote Tory until this lot are cleaned out,they are staunch.Strikes everywhere will be next as workers try to keep up with the bennies.

Do you see any possibility of a co ordinated bail in off the west ie 10% of our savings shares and pensions ?

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, King Penda said:

Do you see any possibility of a co ordinated bail in off the west ie 10% of our savings shares and pensions ?

No,just inflation ,same as its always been.10% bail in wouldnt cover bennies for a year,worthless.