Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JREWING]

Fuck me sideways with a ripe banana..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62566828

Meanwhile, average wage increases are falling behind, with the average salary buying 3% fewer goods and services than a year before

PhD student Rebecca Brown says rising prices mean she can’t afford things she once saw as essential.

She says: "After rent and bills plus my bus fare, phone, Netflix and Spotify bills, that leaves me around £300 to £400 a month for food, fun and necessities.

"I buy basics wherever I can and cook in bulk.

"Last winter we tried to be very frugal with the heating - bundling up with dressing gowns and blankets. But that didn't stop our bills going up from £80 to £140 somehow.

[Jay]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Upgraded to excellent after listening to it all.  What I was taught back in the day, plus further study.  A superbly structured walk through.  Refreshing to hear and get centered again after all the BS.  God knows what shiteshow it is in academia now.  Lovely voice!  Hope they cover off the Austrians (and Mises' related PPE stuff) at some point.

Absolutely agree it is excellent. Thanks for posting it…a good book on 1920s is Lords of Finance by Liaquait Ali…compares approaches by uk us France and Italy…also good to be reminded how well Britain was doing in the 30s..

They say that war is inflationary and the last twenty years of war is possible due to printing…I do remember that the taxation and government spending financed the Great War…seem to imply that inflation will continue as we continue with Ukraine and also Covid policy was a war strategy unless I misunderstood which is probable..

Always good to hear the other side ..I still believe that deflation and war are needed/will occur..will get the benefit cuts then…after stagflation…a tad pessimistic..

you emerging markets investors are ahead of the curve imo but demonstrate ability and talent which means that there still hope..

we live in interesting times..be lucky..

[Starsend]

5 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Fuck me sideways with a ripe banana..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62566828

Meanwhile, average wage increases are falling behind, with the average salary buying 3% fewer goods and services than a year before

PhD student Rebecca Brown says rising prices mean she can’t afford things she once saw as essential.

She says: "After rent and bills plus my bus fare, phone, Netflix and Spotify bills, that leaves me around £300 to £400 a month for food, fun and necessities.

"I buy basics wherever I can and cook in bulk.

"Last winter we tried to be very frugal with the heating - bundling up with dressing gowns and blankets. But that didn't stop our bills going up from £80 to £140 somehow.

"with the average salary buying 3% fewer goods and services than a year before"

 

MY FUCKING ARSE

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Fuck me sideways with a ripe banana..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62566828

Meanwhile, average wage increases are falling behind, with the average salary buying 3% fewer goods and services than a year before

PhD student Rebecca Brown says rising prices mean she can’t afford things she once saw as essential.

She says: "After rent and bills plus my bus fare, phone, Netflix and Spotify bills, that leaves me around £300 to £400 a month for food, fun and necessities.

"I buy basics wherever I can and cook in bulk.

"Last winter we tried to be very frugal with the heating - bundling up with dressing gowns and blankets. But that didn't stop our bills going up from £80 to £140 somehow.

3%, how have they worked that out? Are they including people on bennies? >10% inflation with wages, on the generous measure including bonuses, going up <5%.

Netflix and Spotify cost very little. Perhaps the equivalent of 3 pints per month combined. Although you can make do with free Spotify, like I do, if you can hear the adverts. The phone might be expensive but that is an area where they can make a cut by switching to sim only when the contract ends.

£140 per month is lower than the average utilities bill, currently.

[Jay]

2 hours ago, GTM said:

It really is difficult to call this. We've managed to stash a little bit of money offshore. I have recently added a little more physical gold, all sadly lost in an unfortunate boating accident. But buying lots of PMs with the £ at $1.20ish is either a stroke of genius or the mark of a lunatic.

Very good insurance policy physical gold…didn’t Robert maxwell also have an boating accident..seem to be getting more common..be lucky…

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, feed said:

There will be 10 of thousands of hours of recordings of Truss in meetings. Along with all other senior politicians. 
They will all have been scrutinised to find anything; a slip of the tongue, an out of context comment, a misheard reply.  
Anything for this kind of headline.  
The question is who leaked it and why? That Truss is being attacked this hard, is interesting.  

But still, a Truss government either delivers changes inline the change in the cycle from disinflationary to inflationary.  Reducing government spending and reducing taxes or they deliver a currency collapse.  Everything else is noise. 

That people still get hung up on individual politicians or guardian headlines, in a macro thread, really surprises me. 
 

The establishment want Sunak, so could be anyone.

To be fair though, most old skool tory voters would agree with her, so she is a shoe in.

[feed]

17 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

3%, how have they worked that out? Are they including people on bennies? >10% inflation with wages, on the generous measure including bonuses, going up <5%.

Netflix and Spotify cost very little. Perhaps the equivalent of 3 pints per month combined. Although you can make do with free Spotify, like I do, if you can hear the adverts. The phone might be expensive but that is an area where they can make a cut by switching to sim only when the contract ends.

£140 per month is lower than the average utilities bill, currently.

Wage growth is higher than you think ~6% incl. bonus.  Still behind inflation of course.   

 

 

 

[Boon]

I'd imagine wage growth is not evenly distributed.

At the bottom end there is a boost due to the min wage, but could imagine those people in jobs at the higher end where they cannot be replaced also skew it.

The lower middle class in jobs where replacements can be easily had would be the losers. And by and large, these will be the people featured in the sob stories.

[feed]

1 minute ago, Boon said:

I'd imagine wage growth is not evenly distributed.

At the bottom end there is a boost due to the min wage, but could imagine those people in jobs at the higher end where they cannot be replaced also skew it.

The lower middle class in jobs where replacements can be easily had would be the losers. And by and large, these will be the people featured in the sob stories.

no doubt

[A tremendous # on the lung]

Bit of a random question but - does anyone know where Moneyweek's John Stepek has gone to (he left Moneyweek recently)?

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Arseholes for even considering this during food inflation and shortages

So therefore......

[Yadda yadda yadda]

13 minutes ago, feed said:

Wage growth is higher than you think ~6% incl. bonus.  Still behind inflation of course.   

 

 

 

I must have seen the 5% figure for June. I did think I should check it though!

11 minutes ago, Boon said:

I'd imagine wage growth is not evenly distributed.

At the bottom end there is a boost due to the min wage, but could imagine those people in jobs at the higher end where they cannot be replaced also skew it.

The lower middle class in jobs where replacements can be easily had would be the losers. And by and large, these will be the people featured in the sob stories.

No doubt it is people on average wages who are being squeezed most.

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, feed said:

Wage growth is higher than you think ~6% incl. bonus.  Still behind inflation of course.   

 

 

 

Is that wage growth for the public sector or wage growth for the people forced to fund them ?

[M S E Refugee]

Greens offer solution to UK energy crisis https://www.rt.com/business/561006-uk-nationalization-energy-companies/

The Greens want to nationalise the Utility companies so the Government can set the price of energy.

What a great idea!

It's got me thinking, maybe I ought to phone Atkinson's Bullion and tell them that their 1oz Gold Coins are too expensive so I am going to cap the price at £250 per 1oz Gold Coin.

 

 

[feed]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is that wage growth for the public sector or wage growth for the people forced to fund them ?

far as i can tell, both

[Harley]

54 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

3%, how have they worked that out? Are they including people on bennies? >10% inflation with wages, on the generous measure including bonuses, going up <5%.

Netflix and Spotify cost very little. Perhaps the equivalent of 3 pints per month combined. Although you can make do with free Spotify, like I do, if you can hear the adverts. The phone might be expensive but that is an area where they can make a cut by switching to sim only when the contract ends.

£140 per month is lower than the average utilities bill, currently.

It's all bullocks and you really shouldn't be reading or listening to it!  It's not finance, it's not economics, it's not mathematics, it's not logic, it's not analysis,.........it's not even well written...... feck knows what it is besides very smelly intellectual poo!

[geordie_lurch]

Don't worry about all this macro stuff as BBBY is up 40% pre market so far and hit 395million trading volume yesterday

I got my money back even after HL's set trading fees + fx charges selling 3 of the 5 original shares I bought after going from $11.72 to $27.2 in under 7 days (~130%) so these last 2 are free I will HODL them until the end but I haven't seen https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ this fired up for a long while so there's no reason it can't hit $50 + and I'm kind of wishing I didn't do the sensible thing and top slice / get my money back already 

 

[sancho panza]

On 16/08/2022 at 10:39, Lightscribe said:

Pay spines encourage employees to stay in a job. (It costs the tax payer around about £100k to train a police officer). You would get a higher turnover than you do now and that is already increasing at a rapid clip. They start on £20k a year. And it’s true real wage declines have happened constantly for over 15 years. Without pay spines to a reasonable wage progression there wouldn’t be any. It depends if you think it would be better without them at all. 90% of people never have any interaction with the police until they need them. Then it’s a different story.

Don’t blame the current people working they will suffer the same as everyone else, blame the system and the ridiculous pension schemes of the boomer years that were never sustainable.
 

as we've discussed amongst the ex police/prison service @ThoughtCriminal/ambulance serivce on here ,institutional decay is spreading whilst our political class play their fiddle as the house burns..

One great thing about this thread is that we have a free and open discussion about the problems without being constricted by the wokeness of the world outside the basement which is jsut deluding itself as to the real state of affiars.

kudos to thread leader @DurhamBorn and others for teaching me about the scale of the problem in the benefits system.It's eye opening for someone from a middle class background like me to get to grips with it.Because we've been able to print money these last 15 years post 08,the cracks have been covered and Joe Public hasn't been forced to assess the price they're paying for Ukraine/Bennies/Public sector pensions.

Joe Public has no idea how thinned out that blue line has got because they look at the headline numbers totally oblivious to the fact that wehn they're dealing with a burglar in their own home they will want a copper who can at least defend himself unarmed one on one with a someone capable of violence.

They really need to defund the universities aside from STEM,Medicine and English,maybe one or two other subjects-everyhting else goes in hosue on day release.Then they need to use that money to sort out this country's infrastructure and institutional decay.I look at what we're throwing down the throats of University vice chancellors and then I watch the steady trickle of people leaving the police service because £20k is jsut not worth that hassle and think we've got the spending emphasis wrong.

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Seems a bit of tit-for-tat after Sunak's comments at Tunbridge Wells.

I don't even think it is that bad. It'll get people riled up, but only the people that aren't voting for her anyway.

And without the media frothing it up it is patently true. The question that nobody will ask is why there have been so many Eastern Europeans coming here to do poorly paid jobs while so many households are in receipt of benefits?

The evidence is just clear that the current benefits system does not incenvitise work for a lot of people.

Ok I’ve pretended I’ve got a job just above minimum wage and ran the figures for 39 hours through entitled to.I’d be worse off (only just ).however I’d have to pay for some childcare and petrol to work an end to free school meals (I do packed lunches but you get my drift).don’t shoot the messanger

[Harley]

Pool's open!  Seems IB have gone live with transfers into their ISA! 

[Harley]

Crikey, I've just checked a dormant options account and I've made decent money without even trading!  All held in USD!  Cry GBP baby, cry!

[Axeman123]

Seems like we are still on course for a Fed pivot IMO.

[DoINeedOne]

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Unthinkable 6 months ago.

 

We live in a new world and the old one is never coming back.

[DurhamBorn]

Here we go,the basement front running the politics again.Of course its bull because he has been chucking money at bennies.Its also not about taking a job for the unemployed,its about bennies being far too generous in work as well.They need to include working and disabled in the bennie cap,its far too easy to avoid unemployment benefit,just get carers,ESA etc etc.However it does show the direction of travel.

" if he becomes prime minister as he suggested he would force unemployed claimants to take jobs when they become available. 

Speaking at a leadership hustings in Belfast, Mr Sunak said he wanted to get more people "off benefits and into work" and that this would help businesses which are currently struggling to fill staff vacancies. 

The former chancellor said if he defeats Liz Truss and replaces Boris Johnson in No 10 then he would ensure that "if there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job". 

He said that other than rising energy bills the main problem facing companies is "getting access to workers and getting people to actually work". 

“And I strongly believe that part of the answer to this problem is being much tougher on our welfare system to get people off benefits and into work," he said. 

“Right now, there are more people claiming unemployment benefit than there are job vacancies in the economy. Just think about that for a second. And that is happening under a Conservative government. That is clearly not right, something has gone wrong.”

He added: “If there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job as opposed to just being able to stay on benefits and that is the change that I want to bring because I do think that is the right thing, it is the Conservative thing, those are our values, we believe in working hard and we want to support people off welfare into work because it is good for them and their families too because there is dignity in work.”