Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[tank]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

FFS Liz!

https://news.sky.com/story/politics-live-rishi-sunak-takes-aim-at-liz-truss-boosterish-talk-labour-to-set-out-cost-of-living-plans-12593360

Leaked audio reveals Truss saying British workers need 'more graft'

A source from Liz Truss's campaign has told Sky News the UK needs to boost its productivity after audio from five years ago emerged of Ms Truss saying British workers needed "more graft".

In the audio, leaked to The Guardian, Ms Truss said those outside London were less likely to be hard workers.

She said British workers as a whole also lacked the "skill and motivation" of foreign rivals

"As prime minister, Liz will deliver an economy that is high wage, high growth and low tax."

She will deliver what her predecessors have delivered.

Mass immigration, low wages, exorbitant housing costs, abysmal public services,  crumbling infrastucture, reduced living standards and so on. She even kindly explains why we need another 10 million foreign grafters by 2030. Globalist neoliberal cunts like Truss and Sunak hate indigenous British people. 

Watch what these hard working Tory grifters do, not what they say. 😀😀

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

Propare for the worst you’re pension will be means tested a bigger house will be a liability and your going to get reamed if you want /need a car.Inheritance will get rarer they will suck the joy out of life and you will be surrounded by foreigners who won’t give a fuck 

The only good news that I can think

of is that a shag will be even easier to get if you’ve got a job a car and a house but even this is loosing its lustre 

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Spotted this boat when we stayed in Balmain, Sydney. A boat was anchored in the middle of the little harbour there.

It’s been there a few years so clearly owned by a local and it’s name was clear for all to see “Better Than Shares”. Bad photo attached…possibly the boat.

Perhaps following Michael Burry’s example. Whether it is “better than shares” is debatable of course….but it did make me smile😉

oooh I used to live not far from there, a long time ago!

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Lol the first round out the barrel might get somewhere near the target. The other three or four might be endangering some nearby gulls.

doesnt matter.  run 500 at the enemy and you will be killing more soldiers than you lose.

[Don Coglione]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

oooh I used to live not far from there, a long time ago!

#MeToo, before it became overrun with wankers.

[wherebee]

37 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

#MeToo, before it became overrun with wankers.

i didn't say WHEN I arrived....

[Lightscribe]

Time to stock up the freezer with beef.

https://www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/news/20600866.irish-dairy-report-recommends-paying-dairy-farmers-eur5000-cull-cows/

Meanwhile in Germany…

https://www.brusselstimes.com/world-all-news/272490/germany-introduces-additional-gas-tax-extra-cost-of-e480-for-households

[geordie_lurch]

Inflation officially 10.1% according to ONS

Some bits nicked from BBC...

UK inflation hits 10.1% in the year to July, according to the Office for National Statistics.  The figure is up from 9.4% in June.

Double digit inflation hits new record

The last time the Consumer Price Index - which measures price rises - was in double digits was in February 1982 when it reached 10.2%.

The latest inflation rate is higher than analysts were predicting.

Prices of items leaving factory gate are up by 17% - the highest since 1977

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

The latest inflation rate is higher than analysts were predicting.

Oh just do one, alone and silently.  So an "analyst" is a former "expert" who can no longer hide and an "expert" is a hiding "analyst"!

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Inflation officially 10.1% according to ONS

Some bits nicked from BBC...

UK inflation hits 10.1% in the year to July, according to the Office for National Statistics.  The figure is up from 9.4% in June.

Double digit inflation hits new record

The last time the Consumer Price Index - which measures price rises - was in double digits was in February 1982 when it reached 10.2%.

The latest inflation rate is higher than analysts were predicting.

Prices of items leaving factory gate are up by 17% - the highest since 1977

It's a pity the Governor of the Bank of England is a man rewarded for failure!

Panorama did a program last night that was scathing about Bailey and the FCA. It covered mug punters losing money in a Blackmore property bond but also touched on Woodford and London Capital.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001b7jh/panorama-the-billionpound-savings-scandal?page=2

[Harley]

12 hours ago, Harley said:

This popped up in my podcast feed.  A very good macro overview of monetary economics, inflation and the money tree, from the UK Column guys.  I had no idea they were so knowledgeable!

https://feeds.soundcloud.com/stream/1325084995-ukcolumn-deconstructing-the-magic-money-tree-episode-10.mp3

 

Upgraded to excellent after listening to it all.  What I was taught back in the day, plus further study.  A superbly structured walk through.  Refreshing to hear and get centered again after all the BS.  God knows what shiteshow it is in academia now.  Lovely voice!  Hope they cover off the Austrians (and Mises' related PPE stuff) at some point.

[GTM]

12 hours ago, Barnsey said:

In the audio, leaked to The Guardian, Ms Truss said those outside London were less likely to be hard workers.

She said British workers as a whole also lacked the "skill and motivation" of foreign rivals, specifically those in China.

This part is utter bollocks. If you go to factories and offices in China, as I have, you'll see that the ones in the factories do indeed work extremely hard. However if you go into the offices it will look very familiar if you are used to working in offices in the UK. On one customer site we had to use a piece of test equipment that was always in use during normal office hours. So we asked if we could stay on site past 5pm and use the equipment. Obviously we would need somebody there to keep an eye on things. Nobody in the office would do it. They finally got somebody to volunteer by paying them overtime.

Truss has the same mindset as the idiot managers I've come across who send projects to China and India because they believe they can get highly skilled, highly motivated workers for a fraction of the price of Western workers. Then can't work out why the hell that what they get back is crap, late and massively over budget. Of course the few who are highly skilled and highly motivated have left for a competitor for double the salary.

Most people work because they have to work and that is true the world over.

[Plan-b]

38 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Inflation officially 10.1% according to ONS

Some bits nicked from BBC...

UK inflation hits 10.1% in the year to July, according to the Office for National Statistics.  The figure is up from 9.4% in June.

Double digit inflation hits new record

The last time the Consumer Price Index - which measures price rises - was in double digits was in February 1982 when it reached 10.2%.

The latest inflation rate is higher than analysts were predicting.

Prices of items leaving factory gate are up by 17% - the highest since 1977

But But we've had interest rate rises why won't it stop

[Yadda yadda yadda]

58 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Inflation officially 10.1% according to ONS

Some bits nicked from BBC...

UK inflation hits 10.1% in the year to July, according to the Office for National Statistics.  The figure is up from 9.4% in June.

Double digit inflation hits new record

The last time the Consumer Price Index - which measures price rises - was in double digits was in February 1982 when it reached 10.2%.

The latest inflation rate is higher than analysts were predicting.

Prices of items leaving factory gate are up by 17% - the highest since 1977

That is properly worrying. US inflation moderated last month. What is the difference? Most obvious is exchange rate. We're importing inflation. Record balance of trade deficit too. This is running away in a death spiral. Sterling hasn't reacted much this morning, yet. I would expect it to sell off. The market could be expecting interest rates to rise in response to the higher inflation figure. Perhaps but I would expect sterling to go lower as that rise will be some time off. Unless they do an emergency raise, which would signal panic and draw in speculators to short the pound.

The counter argument would be that the US has raised rates faster. We just need to follow suit. I don't buy that because the interest rate rises haven't had time to have a full impact on demand yet.  We're looking at UK inflation for July here.  There will have been an impact on exchange rates and import prices but not much that will appear in last month's inflation.

Imagine where balance of payments and the exchange rate will be if we have a cold winter. Inflation to the moon. 🚀🚀🚀

[Noallegiance]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

doesnt matter.  run 500 at the enemy and you will be killing more soldiers than you lose.

If the enemy are flying soldiers?

[onlyme]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That is properly worrying. US inflation moderated last month. What is the difference? Most obvious is exchange rate. We're importing inflation. Record balance of trade deficit too. This is running away in a death spiral. Sterling hasn't reacted much this morning, yet. I would expect it to sell off. The market could be expecting interest rates to rise in response to the higher inflation figure. Perhaps but I would expect sterling to go lower as that rise will be some time off. Unless they do an emergency raise, which would signal panic and draw in speculators to short the pound.

The counter argument would be that the US has raised rates faster. We just need to follow suit. I don't buy that because the interest rate rises haven't had time to have a full impact on demand yet.  We're looking at UK inflation for July here.  There will have been an impact on exchange rates and import prices but not much that will appear in last month's inflation.

Imagine where balance of payments and the exchange rate will be if we have a cold winter. Inflation to the moon.

I don't know why but I think are a considerable way behind them in regards the inflation curve, often commented on some of the insane price hikes in food for example in the US (on the ground dnipprtd of info),  maybe we are due the same, govt only just started forcibly shutting down the food / farming sector to appease Gaia, or is that Gates?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, onlyme said:

I don't know why but I think are a considerable way behind them in regards the inflation curve, often commented on some of the insane price hikes in food for example in the US (on the ground dnipprtd of info),  maybe we are due the same, govt only just started forcibly shutting down the food / farming sector to appease Gaia, or is that Gates?

I have seen comment that the US has had a lot more food inflation. Also that US rents have gone up way more than their statistics suggest - although it is possible that disparity is caused by people looking at big city markets and missing the big picture.

If the US is ahead then their inflation statistics are a fabrication. More so than ours. EU stats likely to be similar as I'm told food prices in Germany have exploded higher.

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I have seen comment that the US has had a lot more food inflation. Also that US rents have gone up way more than their statistics suggest - although it is possible that disparity is caused by people looking at big city markets and missing the big picture.

If the US is ahead then their inflation statistics are a fabrication. More so than ours. EU stats likely to be similar as I'm told food prices in Germany have exploded higher.

US figures are a total fabrication, 20% at least. Huge rent increases, landlords just put up the rates to match latest ongoing mortgage rate plus demand from border crossings and nothing short of outright internal mass migration from blue states to red - mirroring the Land to shire money outflows cause inflationary pulse.

[King Penda]

19 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Shouldn’t it be winterroom.com?

Good point 

[Pip321]

19 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Shouldn’t it be winterroom.com?

 

2 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Good point 

If you were working in the public sector you would have paid a £150k marketing consultancy fee for that tweak and advice.

Dosbods it’s for free.😉

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, GTM said:

This part is utter bollocks. If you go to factories and offices in China, as I have, you'll see that the ones in the factories do indeed work extremely hard. However if you go into the offices it will look very familiar if you are used to working in offices in the UK. On one customer site we had to use a piece of test equipment that was always in use during normal office hours. So we asked if we could stay on site past 5pm and use the equipment. Obviously we would need somebody there to keep an eye on things. Nobody in the office would do it. They finally got somebody to volunteer by paying them overtime.

Truss has the same mindset as the idiot managers I've come across who send projects to China and India because they believe they can get highly skilled, highly motivated workers for a fraction of the price of Western workers. Then can't work out why the hell that what they get back is crap, late and massively over budget. Of course the few who are highly skilled and highly motivated have left for a competitor for double the salary.

Most people work because they have to work and that is true the world over.

Iv worked for GSK,3M,INEOS,CUMMINS and Reckitt.Iv also ran my own import business from China where i had my own agent who did all the factory stuff for me,she was amazing,but brutal.The factories i worked in and the people i worked with were fantastic,very hard working and well paid in those companies (apart from INEOS thats more of an asset stripper).The Chinese factories ranged from ok to didnt know to torque screws etc and everything fell apart.The problem in the UK isnt the private sector,its the public sector and bennies.Its amazing the private sector has managed to survive at all given they are carrying over half the country who do nothing.

My inflation target from when it was below 2% 4 years ago hit today,an incredible bit of work it i say so myself.A lot of work went into it,but a big chunk was productive capacity of the economy compared to the demands on it.I then simply roadmapped out likely printing size in the next slump,then push that liquidity through my models on productive capacity size and it came out at 12.1% now,65% over the cycle.

Now going forward that assumes government takes the hard choices,so far they have done the opposite of whats needed.My main worry now for my family  is we are on the edge of the event horizon where the state sucks all wealth into the black hole.

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

If you were working in the public sector you would have paid a £150k marketing consultancy fee for that tweak and advice.

Dosbods it’s for free.😉

Need a catchy logo now is that another 150k ? I was thinking of a walrus on a deckchair I just need a good Nordic name for her

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That is properly worrying. US inflation moderated last month. What is the difference? Most obvious is exchange rate. We're importing inflation. Record balance of trade deficit too. This is running away in a death spiral. Sterling hasn't reacted much this morning, yet. I would expect it to sell off. The market could be expecting interest rates to rise in response to the higher inflation figure. Perhaps but I would expect sterling to go lower as that rise will be some time off. Unless they do an emergency raise, which would signal panic and draw in speculators to short the pound.

The counter argument would be that the US has raised rates faster. We just need to follow suit. I don't buy that because the interest rate rises haven't had time to have a full impact on demand yet.  We're looking at UK inflation for July here.  There will have been an impact on exchange rates and import prices but not much that will appear in last month's inflation.

Imagine where balance of payments and the exchange rate will be if we have a cold winter. Inflation to the moon. 🚀🚀🚀

This is where housing wealth has to go to save sterling,rates will increase until house prices collapse.Housing wealth is what will take the massive pain.

[feed]

US "inflation" v UK CPI.  Obviously not a like for like comparison, but trend is fairly similar 

[Plan-b]

26 minutes ago, onlyme said:

I don't know why but I think are a considerable way behind them in regards the inflation curve, often commented on some of the insane price hikes in food for example in the US (on the ground dnipprtd of info),  maybe we are due the same, govt only just started forcibly shutting down the food / farming sector to appease Gaia, or is that Gates?

Looks like its happening   https://www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/news/20600866.irish-dairy-report-recommends-paying-dairy-farmers-eur5000-cull-cows/

Arseholes for even considering this during food inflation and shortages