Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

54 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

3%, how have they worked that out? Are they including people on bennies? >10% inflation with wages, on the generous measure including bonuses, going up <5%.

Netflix and Spotify cost very little. Perhaps the equivalent of 3 pints per month combined. Although you can make do with free Spotify, like I do, if you can hear the adverts. The phone might be expensive but that is an area where they can make a cut by switching to sim only when the contract ends.

£140 per month is lower than the average utilities bill, currently.

It's all bullocks and you really shouldn't be reading or listening to it!  It's not finance, it's not economics, it's not mathematics, it's not logic, it's not analysis,.........it's not even well written...... feck knows what it is besides very smelly intellectual poo!

[geordie_lurch]

Don't worry about all this macro stuff as BBBY is up 40% pre market so far and hit 395million trading volume yesterday

I got my money back even after HL's set trading fees + fx charges selling 3 of the 5 original shares I bought after going from $11.72 to $27.2 in under 7 days (~130%) so these last 2 are free I will HODL them until the end but I haven't seen https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ this fired up for a long while so there's no reason it can't hit $50 + and I'm kind of wishing I didn't do the sensible thing and top slice / get my money back already 

 

[sancho panza]

On 16/08/2022 at 10:39, Lightscribe said:

Pay spines encourage employees to stay in a job. (It costs the tax payer around about £100k to train a police officer). You would get a higher turnover than you do now and that is already increasing at a rapid clip. They start on £20k a year. And it’s true real wage declines have happened constantly for over 15 years. Without pay spines to a reasonable wage progression there wouldn’t be any. It depends if you think it would be better without them at all. 90% of people never have any interaction with the police until they need them. Then it’s a different story.

Don’t blame the current people working they will suffer the same as everyone else, blame the system and the ridiculous pension schemes of the boomer years that were never sustainable.
 

as we've discussed amongst the ex police/prison service @ThoughtCriminal/ambulance serivce on here ,institutional decay is spreading whilst our political class play their fiddle as the house burns..

One great thing about this thread is that we have a free and open discussion about the problems without being constricted by the wokeness of the world outside the basement which is jsut deluding itself as to the real state of affiars.

kudos to thread leader @DurhamBorn and others for teaching me about the scale of the problem in the benefits system.It's eye opening for someone from a middle class background like me to get to grips with it.Because we've been able to print money these last 15 years post 08,the cracks have been covered and Joe Public hasn't been forced to assess the price they're paying for Ukraine/Bennies/Public sector pensions.

Joe Public has no idea how thinned out that blue line has got because they look at the headline numbers totally oblivious to the fact that wehn they're dealing with a burglar in their own home they will want a copper who can at least defend himself unarmed one on one with a someone capable of violence.

They really need to defund the universities aside from STEM,Medicine and English,maybe one or two other subjects-everyhting else goes in hosue on day release.Then they need to use that money to sort out this country's infrastructure and institutional decay.I look at what we're throwing down the throats of University vice chancellors and then I watch the steady trickle of people leaving the police service because £20k is jsut not worth that hassle and think we've got the spending emphasis wrong.

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Seems a bit of tit-for-tat after Sunak's comments at Tunbridge Wells.

I don't even think it is that bad. It'll get people riled up, but only the people that aren't voting for her anyway.

And without the media frothing it up it is patently true. The question that nobody will ask is why there have been so many Eastern Europeans coming here to do poorly paid jobs while so many households are in receipt of benefits?

The evidence is just clear that the current benefits system does not incenvitise work for a lot of people.

Ok I’ve pretended I’ve got a job just above minimum wage and ran the figures for 39 hours through entitled to.I’d be worse off (only just ).however I’d have to pay for some childcare and petrol to work an end to free school meals (I do packed lunches but you get my drift).don’t shoot the messanger

[Harley]

Pool's open!  Seems IB have gone live with transfers into their ISA! 

[Harley]

Crikey, I've just checked a dormant options account and I've made decent money without even trading!  All held in USD!  Cry GBP baby, cry!

[Axeman123]

Seems like we are still on course for a Fed pivot IMO.

[DoINeedOne]

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Unthinkable 6 months ago.

 

We live in a new world and the old one is never coming back.

[DurhamBorn]

Here we go,the basement front running the politics again.Of course its bull because he has been chucking money at bennies.Its also not about taking a job for the unemployed,its about bennies being far too generous in work as well.They need to include working and disabled in the bennie cap,its far too easy to avoid unemployment benefit,just get carers,ESA etc etc.However it does show the direction of travel.

" if he becomes prime minister as he suggested he would force unemployed claimants to take jobs when they become available. 

Speaking at a leadership hustings in Belfast, Mr Sunak said he wanted to get more people "off benefits and into work" and that this would help businesses which are currently struggling to fill staff vacancies. 

The former chancellor said if he defeats Liz Truss and replaces Boris Johnson in No 10 then he would ensure that "if there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job". 

He said that other than rising energy bills the main problem facing companies is "getting access to workers and getting people to actually work". 

“And I strongly believe that part of the answer to this problem is being much tougher on our welfare system to get people off benefits and into work," he said. 

“Right now, there are more people claiming unemployment benefit than there are job vacancies in the economy. Just think about that for a second. And that is happening under a Conservative government. That is clearly not right, something has gone wrong.”

He added: “If there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job as opposed to just being able to stay on benefits and that is the change that I want to bring because I do think that is the right thing, it is the Conservative thing, those are our values, we believe in working hard and we want to support people off welfare into work because it is good for them and their families too because there is dignity in work.”

[Noallegiance]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here we go,the basement front running the politics again.Of course its bull because he has been chucking money at bennies.Its also not about taking a job for the unemployed,its about bennies being far too generous in work as well.They need to include working and disabled in the bennie cap,its far too easy to avoid unemployment benefit,just get carers,ESA etc etc.However it does show the direction of travel.

" if he becomes prime minister as he suggested he would force unemployed claimants to take jobs when they become available. 

Speaking at a leadership hustings in Belfast, Mr Sunak said he wanted to get more people "off benefits and into work" and that this would help businesses which are currently struggling to fill staff vacancies. 

The former chancellor said if he defeats Liz Truss and replaces Boris Johnson in No 10 then he would ensure that "if there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job". 

He said that other than rising energy bills the main problem facing companies is "getting access to workers and getting people to actually work". 

“And I strongly believe that part of the answer to this problem is being much tougher on our welfare system to get people off benefits and into work," he said. 

“Right now, there are more people claiming unemployment benefit than there are job vacancies in the economy. Just think about that for a second. And that is happening under a Conservative government. That is clearly not right, something has gone wrong.”

He added: “If there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job as opposed to just being able to stay on benefits and that is the change that I want to bring because I do think that is the right thing, it is the Conservative thing, those are our values, we believe in working hard and we want to support people off welfare into work because it is good for them and their families too because there is dignity in work.”

At this stage he just looks like a copycat candidate.

[Axeman123]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

At this stage he just looks like a copycat candidate.

It is promising that this issue has become the battleground though.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here we go,the basement front running the politics again.Of course its bull because he has been chucking money at bennies.Its also not about taking a job for the unemployed,its about bennies being far too generous in work as well.They need to include working and disabled in the bennie cap,its far too easy to avoid unemployment benefit,just get carers,ESA etc etc.However it does show the direction of travel.

" if he becomes prime minister as he suggested he would force unemployed claimants to take jobs when they become available. 

Speaking at a leadership hustings in Belfast, Mr Sunak said he wanted to get more people "off benefits and into work" and that this would help businesses which are currently struggling to fill staff vacancies. 

The former chancellor said if he defeats Liz Truss and replaces Boris Johnson in No 10 then he would ensure that "if there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job". 

He said that other than rising energy bills the main problem facing companies is "getting access to workers and getting people to actually work". 

“And I strongly believe that part of the answer to this problem is being much tougher on our welfare system to get people off benefits and into work," he said. 

“Right now, there are more people claiming unemployment benefit than there are job vacancies in the economy. Just think about that for a second. And that is happening under a Conservative government. That is clearly not right, something has gone wrong.”

He added: “If there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job as opposed to just being able to stay on benefits and that is the change that I want to bring because I do think that is the right thing, it is the Conservative thing, those are our values, we believe in working hard and we want to support people off welfare into work because it is good for them and their families too because there is dignity in work.”

Of course you do luv, of course you do.  Today.

[Boon]

He is so far behind in the betting now I just think he's coming out with anything. 

Should have really said it at the start.

 

[GTM]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He added: “If there are hours to do, if there is a job going, people should have to take the job

And when they do in a lazy, half arsed way what happens when the employer gets rid?

Bennies are the honey pot whereas working is thin gruel. You might be able to hide the honey pot temporarily, but they'll be feeding from it again before too long.

[Axeman123]

22 minutes ago, GTM said:

And when they do in a lazy, half arsed way what happens when the employer gets rid?

Bennies are the honey pot whereas working is thin gruel. You might be able to hide the honey pot temporarily, but they'll be feeding from it again before too long.

Someone needs to shit in the honey!

[No One]

19 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I can't help feeling there's something gone wrong along the way. What about all these robots which are supposed to do everything? I thought I heard of factories which used to employ 2500 people but now produce same or more output with only 6 people to supervise the robots? What happened to that?

If we could get that to work nobody would care about the lazy workdodgers as we would not need them anyway. We could pay them some fraction of the saved 2500 wages as "bennies" or "Universal Income" and they could roll around in scratchcards to their hearts' content.

Meanwhile motivated folk who proved themselves superior to robots could justify really decent wages and enjoy better lives. 

I'll point out the flaw now before anyone else does - the factory owner wants the 2500x saved wages in their own globalist pocket and leave the taxpayer to pay the bennies etc.

That's a good point, I think I know the factory you mean. The SKF bearing factory in Luton used to have 1000s of workers and now its been all automated, effectively destroying those jobs and saving SKF in capex.

 

This is going to be a major issue in the future with increased automation.

 

 

18 hours ago, King Penda said:

Correct I’ve just been playing with entitled to this concept would mean I can get tipsy every night avoid paying tax (a bit ) and ream the government for 4600 in benifits thus leaving the doorway wide open for every single freebie going under the sun.all legal and I know I could even claim to be a carer on top for another 50 ish (let’s not get to ahead or greedy).this is not bullshit it’s a fact my biggest problem if I did it would be hiding the fucking cash or I could get a Range Rover and a big tv .

That's absolutely shocking, I'm guessing non means tested. Never knew it wa sthis bad.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, GTM said:

This part is utter bollocks. If you go to factories and offices in China, as I have, you'll see that the ones in the factories do indeed work extremely hard. However if you go into the offices it will look very familiar if you are used to working in offices in the UK. On one customer site we had to use a piece of test equipment that was always in use during normal office hours. So we asked if we could stay on site past 5pm and use the equipment. Obviously we would need somebody there to keep an eye on things. Nobody in the office would do it. They finally got somebody to volunteer by paying them overtime.

Truss has the same mindset as the idiot managers I've come across who send projects to China and India because they believe they can get highly skilled, highly motivated workers for a fraction of the price of Western workers. Then can't work out why the hell that what they get back is crap, late and massively over budget. Of course the few who are highly skilled and highly motivated have left for a competitor for double the salary.

Most people work because they have to work and that is true the world over.

I've worked with Indians before, from the excellent to the ghastly. I suppose you get a bit of evrything, but yes, the excellent ones cost more, and if you pay peanuts...

 

 

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

6 to 7% mortgage rates anyone ?

6/7% Savings account would be nice too  that way as my savings go up houses come down.

 

6 hours ago, feed said:

There will be 10 of thousands of hours of recordings of Truss in meetings. Along with all other senior politicians. 
They will all have been scrutinised to find anything; a slip of the tongue, an out of context comment, a misheard reply.  
Anything for this kind of headline.  
The question is who leaked it and why? That Truss is being attacked this hard, is interesting.  

But still, a Truss government either delivers changes inline the change in the cycle from disinflationary to inflationary.  Reducing government spending and reducing taxes or they deliver a currency collapse.  Everything else is noise. 

That people still get hung up on individual politicians or guardian headlines, in a macro thread, really surprises me. 
 

This is just Tory-on-Tory infighting. Hopefully whoever recorded that gets kicked out of the party.

 

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are slow arent they,i said 3.5% was the likely destination 6 months ago on here.The question then is though will they try to cut quickly if inflation rows back to around 7% as im expecting if sterling doesnt collapse.

Its funny how things never really change,i also suspected that they would only kill house prices when bread started to inflate away and thats whats happened.

Hopefully it will kill of some BTLs who are buying up here and importing bennies and immigrants here.

Goverment needs a fiscal move as rates increase,Sunak would do it through bennies,Truss through tax cuts,lets see.

I pray this is the case.

After 2008 my savingss hould have been min 5% and house prices allowed to correct. 

I would own a house and pay a reasonable mortgage for a reasonable house. I'm far above the national average wage and I cant afford a house because the rent has sucked up all the disposable income. 

 

I can't imagine those earning average wages how they can cope. I truly feel for them.

 

 

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

U.S. inflation solved

 

 

 

 

This wont end well.

The higher they pump the bigger the economic crash.

[DurhamBorn]

30 minutes ago, GTM said:

And when they do in a lazy, half arsed way what happens when the employer gets rid?

Bennies are the honey pot whereas working is thin gruel. You might be able to hide the honey pot temporarily, but they'll be feeding from it again before too long.

He is the man who chucked £1200 energy grant to bennies paid for by freezing the tax allowance that hits low paid full time workers not on bennies hardest,he is an utter cunt.Incredible how he is now saying the opposite of what he did in government.

[reformed nice guy]

4 minutes ago, No One said:

That's a good point, I think I know the factory you mean. The SKF bearing factory in Luton used to have 1000s of workers and now its been all automated, effectively destroying those jobs and saving SKF in capex.

We should be increasing our production to sell to all of the dirt poor countries that are growing a middle class. India, Africa, Asia.

There are probably a billion people that have moved into the middle class in the past decade - we should have been selling the stuff required to enter the middle class.

For every factory being automated there was scope to open a new one to meet the growing demands. Instead we encouraged the growth elsewhere while we sold each other houses, huskies and haircuts

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Unthinkable 6 months ago.

We live in a new world and the old one is never coming back.

At the same time Joe doesn't have a clue which world he's living in

 

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Someone needs to shit in the honey!

Some honeys don't like that

[Bobthebuilder]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is the man who chucked £1200 energy grant to bennies paid for by freezing the tax allowance that hits low paid full time workers not on bennies hardest,he is an utter cunt.Incredible how he is now saying the opposite of what he did in government.

Rishi is the man who will walk into a room to meet you, smash you in the face with a chair, walk out the room then walk back in again put his arm around you and say, "What horrible man did this to you? here, let me try and make it better".

Fukin weasel.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

We should be increasing our production to sell to all of the dirt poor countries that are growing a middle class. India, Africa, Asia.

There are probably a billion people that have moved into the middle class in the past decade - we should have been selling the stuff required to enter the middle class.

For every factory being automated there was scope to open a new one to meet the growing demands. Instead we encouraged the growth elsewhere while we sold each other houses, huskies and haircuts

Produce cocaine ? 

[reformed nice guy]

17 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Produce cocaine ? 

This is what the middle class really want:

 

[JMD]

On 14/08/2022 at 15:57, Animal Spirits said:

Simon Michaux was a guest on Nate Hagens podcast back in May:

https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/19-simon-michaux

00:45 - Simon Michaux info + works

01:10 - Energy Blind

02:58 - Mintech

03:11 - Geometallurgy

08:10 - Fossil energies are finite

08:15 - Mineral resources are finite

09:30 - Volcanic reproduction of minerals

10:25 - The fourth industrial revolution

14:20 - Coking coal

15:08 - Low carbon steel

15:59 - Scalability

17:11 - It takes decades to build a grid of new plants

19:40 - 19 terawatt powered society

20:44 - In general we’re adding 1-2 nuclear power plants per year

22:19 - Nuclear cannot scale up fast enough to replace fossil fuels

22:51 - Base metals are recycled at 30-60% and technology metals don’t get recycled at all

24:09 - Circular economy

25:20 - Resource balanced economy

26:42 - Quantitative easing

29:26 - Availability of uranium and thorium

30:50 - Energy properties

32:22 - Cobb Douglas Function

32:50 - Generation IV nuclear power

35:15 - 2018 Peak Oil

38:10 - Extracting copper will become more difficult

40:28 - Renewables: Right answer to the wrong question

32:35 - Minerals in a wind turbine (2-ton neodymium magnet)

43:28 - ⅓ of current system will be electrified according to the European commission

43:43 - There’s not enough time or materials to mine and replace lithium to meet goals by 2030

46:07 - Brandenburg, Germany 100% renewable by 2030

52:03 - Manufacturing and raw material production in Russia and China

52:38 - Natural gas in Europe comes from Russia

53:50 - Liquifying and unliquifying gas loses 30% of energy properties

58:04 - Peak coal 2013 and peak gas 2019

1:03:10 - Paul Ehrlich info + TGS Episode

1:03:20 - Industrial fertilizer

1:03:40 - We’ve lost 40% of arable land since 1960

1:05:45 - Cuban response to oil embargo

Yes the Nate Hagen's podcasts are brilliant. Really make you think about the crucial cultural imperatives and who and how these should be decided upon before the world goes pop.

There is certainly no dumbing down in this particular episode... Lots on energy, finance, etc. But careful your brain doesnt explode(!!) listening to these two polymaths riff for neaely 2 hours, lots of knowledge, insight and even some possible solutions I think.

                            https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/20-daniel-schmactenberger