Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[marceau]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

You just have to be smart about it. You bury your precious metals in the woods somewhere and come back and get it twenty years later when it's safe to do so. In the meantime you muddle through same as everybody else, maybe using the odd silver coin to keep the wolf from the door if it's safe to do so and isn't going to draw attention.

If you can guarantee 20 years is enough, then sure. Of course, every ancient coin hoard that's been dug up across the world once had an owner who thought the same thing.

[HousePriceMania]

34 minutes ago, afly said:

They're not asleep. They are retards

Or....they are clever ****ers who've been on top of the pile for 1000 years and say an opportunity to take everything back from the people that the people fought and won under "real" labour governments

 

[humdrum]

We are doomed I tell you, doomed.

Things will get worse and worse until they finally start to get better when we will stop taking notice because we rather enjoy being glum.

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

If you can guarantee 20 years is enough, then sure. Of course, every ancient coin hoard that's been dug up across the world once had an owner who thought the same thing.

Most of them probably never told anybody where it was and then got killed / had a heart attack. You'd need to have somebody you could trust, which would be difficult for some. I have children I trust so I'd be ok.

[Lightly Toasted]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/25/big-energy-firms-refuse-to-supply-small-uk-businesses-bankruptcy-fears-contracts

This is new, those evil energy companies are refusing to quote for some small businesses because they don't think they will get paid come winter!  Pubs and beauty salons not essential expenditure for consumers it seems.

 

They can still get energy, just not on a fixed price contract.

If they cannot find a fixed-rate contract, they move on to an out-of-contract “deemed” rate, which is uncapped and can soar in line with market prices.

Mark Dickinson, the chief executive of energy broker Inspired, said some energy firms were only choosing to renew contracts with customers they already had, “so they’re withdrawing from new business. [Others are] effectively saying they don’t even want to renew current customers.”

In the current climate it makes sense for energy suppliers to avoid fixed price supply contracts lasting several years -- the supplier's business is on the line too, and I imagine hedging costs are through the roof and will be exposed to counterparty risk.

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The govt needed 60% of the adult population on the debt treadmill to keep the banking system solvent and to pay for the 40% who were benefit recipients/pensioners/public sector .

Then the problem becomes how do you run it when it becoems 50/50??? How do you fund it when it becomes 40% working 60% taking?

I say that as a public sector worker.The maths is simple.You can shrink reserve requirements at banks over the decades,you can run consistent fiscal deficits but at some point the piper will want paying.

More and more of the worker bees are saying 'f*** that'.

Saw an old army mate yesterday,he was saying him and his Mrs were looking at a bigger house,did the maths,thought about all the extra work and tax and thought 'f*** that'.

The worker bees are waking up to the parasites in Westminster and not before time.

At last, I'm at the top of a list and happy.  Almost "earn nothing for nobody and be happy"!  My net zero! 

[HousePriceMania]

Inflation linked bonds anyone ?

Oh, not for the little people ?

 

https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/fixed-income/uk-gets-strong-demand-for-ultra-long-inflation-linked-bond-nifjqqv7

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Starsend said:

You just have to be smart about it. You bury your precious metals in the woods somewhere and come back and get it twenty years later when it's safe to do so. In the meantime you muddle through same as everybody else, maybe using the odd silver coin to keep the wolf from the door if it's safe to do so and isn't going to draw attention.

Iv i ever disappear you might get lucky if you go down Smokey's Cave.Its a culvert hidden away,but right down there is a shaft leading off and it connects to one of the old drift mines around here.Its the only one i know you can still get in,not many know where the entrance is.If you notice the last few photos thats the coal seam.Amazing really.You could set up a rope and pulley system and extract a lot of coal out of there by hand and a pic axe.Only prob is the seam gets very thin in places and you need 11 year olds to squeeze in those bits,like they used to.

https://www.28dayslater.co.uk/threads/boxed-in-smokies-cave-bishop-auckland-august-2016.104933/

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, humdrum said:

We are doomed I tell you, doomed.

Things will get worse and worse until they finally start to get better when we will stop taking notice because we rather enjoy being glum.

I wish I lived in more sane times when adults were in charge, hard work was rewarded and the girlies were slim. Nobody enjoys trying to navigate this mess surely.

[RJT1979]

Tesla. Oops share spilt

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv i ever disappear you might get lucky if you go down Smokey's Cave.Its a culvert hidden away,but right down there is a shaft leading off and it connects to one of the old drift mines around here.Its the only one i know you can still get in,not many know where the entrance is.If you notice the last few photos thats the coal seam.Amazing really.You could set up a rope and pulley system and extract a lot of coal out of there by hand and a pic axe.Only prob is the seam gets very thin in places and you need 11 year olds to squeeze in those bits,like they used to.

https://www.28dayslater.co.uk/threads/boxed-in-smokies-cave-bishop-auckland-august-2016.104933/

Interesting website that, some great photo's.

Have to say I'd be bloody tempted to dig some of my own coal if it's that accessible near you. Filthy work but if it gets bad enough this Winter...

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The govt needed 60% of the adult population on the debt treadmill to keep the banking system solvent and to pay for the 40% who were benefit recipients/pensioners/public sector .

Then the problem becomes how do you run it when it becoems 50/50??? How do you fund it when it becomes 40% working 60% taking?

I say that as a public sector worker.The maths is simple.You can shrink reserve requirements at banks over the decades,you can run consistent fiscal deficits but at some point the piper will want paying.

More and more of the worker bees are saying 'f*** that'.

Saw an old army mate yesterday,he was saying him and his Mrs were looking at a bigger house,did the maths,thought about all the extra work and tax and thought 'f*** that'.

The worker bees are waking up to the parasites in Westminster and not before time.

UK can only support ~10% of workforce in public sector and 10% of working age households on benefits.

50% of the bennies household need taking out.

 

[Majorpain]

12 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

They can still get energy, just not on a fixed price contract.

If they cannot find a fixed-rate contract, they move on to an out-of-contract “deemed” rate, which is uncapped and can soar in line with market prices.

Mark Dickinson, the chief executive of energy broker Inspired, said some energy firms were only choosing to renew contracts with customers they already had, “so they’re withdrawing from new business. [Others are] effectively saying they don’t even want to renew current customers.”

In the current climate it makes sense for energy suppliers to avoid fixed price supply contracts lasting several years -- the supplier's business is on the line too, and I imagine hedging costs are through the roof and will be exposed to counterparty risk.

Yes, if they think you can actually pay, when the fixed deal ends you automatically go onto their pay as you go market rate supply.  However, some of the businesses are such a lost cause that the suppliers don't actually want to deal with them at all, when none of the energy companies want to supply you what are you going to do?  This is proper uncharted waters territory.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, marceau said:

If you can guarantee 20 years is enough, then sure. Of course, every ancient coin hoard that's been dug up across the world once had an owner who thought the same thing.

Its where the word bank came from.Soldiers etc used to stick their money "in the bank" actually a hedge/bank near a certain tree or feature and collect later,as you say for many there was no later.I used to do a lot of detecting back in the day.

Vikings used to hide theirs away though on purpose they thought it went with them into the afterlife.Roman coins etc on nearly every field near me Dere Street ran straight through here.

My best finds were always where people would sit though,corners of small streams,big trees in field boundaries etc,you get coin spills there.

[spygirl]

28 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/25/big-energy-firms-refuse-to-supply-small-uk-businesses-bankruptcy-fears-contracts

This is new, those evil energy companies are refusing to quote for some small businesses because they don't think they will get paid come winter!  Pubs and beauty salons not essential expenditure for consumers it seems.

 

So ... the great UK employment miracle- see various threads here, on TCs, UCs, based on hordes of single mums working PT in hair n nail salons, inc EU migrants in pizza n burger eateries, with huge tax payer subs, is about to blow up.

Good.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Crikey, I didn't realise there were so many peasants in this country, £20,000 a year wtf! All they'd get out of me for that would be a loud fart on my office chair then I'd announce I'm done for the day. 

I expect most of those earning under £20,000, and all of them earning under £12500, are working P/T... Am not judging those individuals, instead i blame the crazy incentives/disincentives inherent in the welfare/tax system...  They used to talk about the 'Brain Drain', but the new worrying trend is the 'Brawn Drain'!!

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Interesting website that, some great photo's.

Have to say I'd be bloody tempted to dig some of my own coal if it's that accessible near you. Filthy work but if it gets bad enough this Winter...

Its quite a way in the seam,but  a rope and pulley system would get the bags out.Some youngsters know about it of course and go into the first bit,but they dont go past the crawl bits.There used to be some real easy ones near me where they just capped off the drift,but you could dig away the soil and get in.At Cockfield fell you can still see where the coal is at the surface,lots of Iron Age holes there where they dug the coal out,they werent daft.

[Stuey]

9 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Yes, if they think you can actually pay, when the fixed deal ends you automatically go onto their pay as you go market rate supply.  However, some of the businesses are such a lost cause that the suppliers don't actually want to deal with them at all, when none of the energy companies want to supply you what are you going to do?  This is proper uncharted waters territory.

Really big (but risky) companies can be handled with next-day payment but the admin cost of that would be horrendous, probably one FTE. 

[Axeman123]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Inflation linked bonds anyone ?

Oh, not for the little people ?

https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/fixed-income/uk-gets-strong-demand-for-ultra-long-inflation-linked-bond-nifjqqv7

Remeber when they declined to issue 50yr bonds locking in record low rates, which would have inflicted losses on bankers? Now they are rushing out exactly what they need, inflation protection at the taxpayers' expense. Remind me who he works for again?

"The price paid suggests investors expect RPI to average around 3.4% over the lifetime of the bond" So when we have an inflationary decade they presumably appreciate strongly, as that average expected inflation level to term drifts higher and hence the value of inflation protection rises.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Crikey, I didn't realise there were so many peasants in this country, £20,000 a year wtf! All they'd get out of me for that would be a loud fart on my office chair then I'd announce I'm done for the day. 

There's a lot of full time workers on circa £20k.Which is why so many are opting out to go on TC/UC give up work.

Band 2+3 NHS is around that level ie HCA's ,ECA's on ambulances.You'll get a bit more for unsocial but for all the sh1t you tkae in A&E and pre hospitally,I'm amazed they keep anyone at all.

As for carers, who are mainly min wage,I'm amazed they can recruit anyone at all.

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

They also reduced capex by roughly the extra they had to pay in windfall taxes so far, it seems to me, and pretty much said that the tax means less availabe for investment. And increased buybacks . If the government cant interpret that as two fingers from the biggest producer in the north sea, they are completely blind.

There was a few interesting things in the release

Nice to see them paying down debt while they can.Interesting their market cap is £4bn,heading towards an FCF yield of circa 25% to 35% in 2023..........

Decl:long

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/harbour-energy-ups-buybacks-300-mln-after-free-cash-flow-jump-2022-08-25/

LONDON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Harbour Energy (HBR.L), the UK North Sea's biggest oil and gas producer, increased a share buyback programme by 50% to $300 million on Thursday as it reported first-half free cash flow of $1.4 billion.

Harbour, which is set to produce just over 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent this year and reduced its net debt to $1.1 billion from $1.7 billion in March, expects to pay $500 million in UK tax for 2022.

Around $300 million of this is due to a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers introduced in May, said Chief Executive Linda Cook.

Having reduced its debt, Harbour also has less stringent requirements from its lenders to hedge its output.

At current levels, it is required to hedge 40% of its output 12 months out and a third of its production in the following year with no requirements three years out.

Harbour, which pays $200 million in annual dividends, reduced its investment programme by $100 million to $1.2 billion for the year "primarily due to the delayed arrival of two drilling rigs in the UK", it said.

For the full year, Harbour forecasts its free cash flow to reach $1.8 billion-$2 billion. It expects to be debt free next year, assuming an average oil price of $100 a barrel and gas price of 200 pence per therm this and next year.

The lower second-half free cash flow is due to the higher tax payments, more spending on drilling and lower production in the period, Cook said.

In terms of its non-UK portfolio, Harbour said it expected to submit a development plan for the giant Mexican Zama field next year with a final investment decision by the end of 2023.

[Noallegiance]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

..you need 11 year olds to squeeze in those bits....

 

That's a whole different thing these days.

[Don Coglione]

55 minutes ago, Starsend said:

You just have to be smart about it. You bury your precious metals in the woods somewhere and come back and get it twenty years later when it's safe to do so. In the meantime you muddle through same as everybody else, maybe using the odd silver coin to keep the wolf from the door if it's safe to do so and isn't going to draw attention.

What kind of life would that be, for 20 years? Most on this site would likely be dead.

[Spiney Norman]

28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its where the word bank came from.Soldiers etc used to stick their money "in the bank" actually a hedge/bank near a certain tree or feature and collect later,as you say for many there was no later.

I'm not sure thats correct DB.

I unserstood the word "bank" came from the Italian word "bancho" which means bench. It's were you sat to discuss terms with the money lenders in medieval times.

 

[HousePriceMania]

46 minutes ago, humdrum said:

We are doomed I tell you, doomed.

Things will get worse and worse until they finally start to get better when we will stop taking notice because we rather enjoy being glum.

 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Great tweet from Gromen