Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, ste said:

Didn't know that fact about inflation index-linked debt...

https://vocaroo.com/1jBVhf7PzfEq 

My indexed link saving certs are up 30k in a year.  The average wage round us is less than that 

I always intended them to fund my retirement essential spending 

[The Grey Man]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The 50 year intergenerational mortgage fuelled by more QE? 

 

Boris is full on wef mental now 

 

 

A good point to note.

EDF own a fair chunk of the energy supply in the UK.

Switch to the earlier comments, or perhaps late last week, the UK would not share gas supplies in undefined difficulties.

Hmm. That is a potential fight. 

Can we just go back to about 1999? 

It seemed so easy then.

[JMD]

49 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

 

Is state nationalisation allowed under EU rules?

[HousePriceMania]

Let's face it, fat boris refusing to quit is a sure sign something is seriously fucked. 

 

What next? 

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Let's face it, fat boris refusing to quit is a sure sign something is seriously fucked. 

 

What next? 

More likely that Princess Nut Nut won't relinquish her powers or Bojo knows she will leave him once he resigns.

[Lightly Toasted]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is state nationalisation allowed under EU rules?

Not necessarily, and particularly now that the UK is no longer a member 

https://www.anothereurope.org/lets-be-clear-nationalisation-is-not-against-eu-law/

Important point made in the article is that while nationalisation per se is not prohibited, unfair competition by state-owned entities is. But to my mind, a nationalised corporation is inevitably unfairly advantaged -- if only by the fact that it never has to worry about going bust.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, Lightly Toasted said:

It wouldn't have to fund our deficit. The idea of going "cap in hand" to the IMF is that they give you a one-off (or at least, not open-ended) emergency loan and in return you commit to making fiscal/economic reforms to put your house in order.

IMF intervention may offer political cover for the administering of bad-tasting medicine. OTOH I don't think it was a coincidence that the UK's 1976 bailout was followed a couple of years later by the Winter of Discontent.

 

The IMF gets its funds from countries who in turn get one vote per dollar or drawing right.

The IMF is a middleman who facilitates these loans

There are 3 places the IMF could look to get a bailout for UK if UK needs help

The EU - they skint

America who it would be difficult to throw in more due to their inflation

Russia and friends in Brics.

We the UK cannot go to Putin for a bailout.

 

 

 

[RJT1979]

The imf don't exist. There is no magic money tree. No more loans will help. Either they print or they balance books. That simple. Print or let house prices fall.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, RJT1979 said:

The imf don't exist. There is no magic money tree. No more loans will help. Either they print or they balance books. That simple. Print or let house prices fall.

1. Print, hyperinflation, everything fails 

2. No print, rich lose out 

 

1 all the way... Its akways the same 

[Lightly Toasted]

8 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

The IMF gets its funds from countries who in turn get one vote per dollar or drawing right.

The IMF is a middleman who facilitates these loans

There are 3 places the IMF could look to get a bailout for UK if UK needs help

The EU - they skint

America who it would be difficult to throw in more due to their inflation

Russia and friends in Brics.

We the UK cannot go to Putin for a bailout.

 

 

 

Indeed, as comforting as it is to see others sinking into the same morass as is sucking you down, in practise it's better to be the only one in the swamp. Then the others can throw you a lifeline.

Still, the IMF does seem to have pre-committed funds -- whether they would be available as pledged, or sufficient for the level of bail-out that might be required, I do not know.

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/21/business/global/imf-adds-430-billion-in-emergency-lending-ability.html

TBH "emergency loans" are a red herring; the real solution for the UK is economic reform and population adjustment to that which can support itself on these islands.

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

34 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

1. Print, hyperinflation, everything fails 

2. No print, rich lose out 

 

1 all the way... Its akways the same 

They will print imho, chuck in a bit of wealth theft / confiscation. History shows it's the preferred way throughout the world. No political party has the integrity, will, nor cojones to undertake the huge changes required to try and avert collapse. Eventual collapse will be the only way the huge structural changes required will ever be implemented.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is a telling quote from No.10:

 

"The source adds that Johnson explained to cabinet ministers tonight that the options are not "Boris or no Boris".

Rather, it's about giving Johnson either a "fresh chancellor and new programme, that Rishi was not prepared to do"

 

Looks like sunak wasn't prepared to implement a change of direction in economic policy which tallies with what he said in his resignation letter.

Yes Its my understanding that Sunak would have been one of the big beasts culled in the touted pre summer recess cabinet reshuffle, but the ever shambolic Boris couldn't decide things in time and so events once again overtook him (another truism of his priministership).                                                                                                                                       Crazy summer ahead methinks as believe BJ is going to force this political farce to play out to its bitter/sweet end. Which could involve another GE. Personally I was always deeply suspicious of the open hostility and even hate shown by most MSM toward BJ, plus the covert sabotage by many of the 'un-conservative' backbenchers and his 'serving' cabinet. However I would still blame the chaotic and lazy personality of BJ for failing to push through his radical - Singapore on Thames - free market policies, ideas hinted at by Zahawi in the Times article posted up thread. But anyhow those ideas have seemingly now gone to dust; Ultimately this country required a Thatcher type aided by loyal and competent lieutenants. (...or maybe that odd-couple partnership of Boris-Cummings could/should have been 'allowed' to work?).                                                                                                The reason I think BJ will attempt to at least limp on regardless is because all this will be excellent copy for his book, I mean Cameron got £1M for his memoirs, so BJ should trouser at least £10M for what surely promises to be a very spicy shame and tell?!

[leonardratso]

take a breaks offering £250 for stories.

[JMD]

Another good State of the Markets podcast, this time with guest David Murrin... commodity markets, China, Ukraine, etc.                                                        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tJNuQJOXOeI&t=745s

[JMD]

13 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

take a breaks offering £250 for stories.

Hmm, he got paid 300k/year for his weekly column for the Telegraph, which he boasted took only an hour to write.

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Yes Its my understanding that Sunak would have been one of the big beasts culled in the touted pre summer recess cabinet reshuffle, but the ever shambolic Boris couldn't decide things in time and so events once again overtook him (another truism of his priministership).                                                                                                                                       Crazy summer ahead methinks as believe BJ is going to force this political farce to play out to its bitter/sweet end. Which could involve another GE. Personally I was always deeply suspicious of the open hostility and even hate shown by most MSM toward BJ, plus the covert sabotage by many of the 'un-conservative' backbenchers and his 'serving' cabinet. However I would still blame the chaotic and lazy personality of BJ for failing to push through his radical - Singapore on Thames - free market policies, ideas hinted at by Zahawi in the Times article posted up thread. But anyhow those ideas have seemingly now gone to dust; Ultimately this country required a Thatcher type aided by loyal and competent lieutenants. (...or maybe that odd-couple partnership of Boris-Cummings could/should have been 'allowed' to work?).                                                                                                The reason I think BJ will attempt to at least limp on regardless is because all this will be excellent copy for his book, I mean Cameron got £1M for his memoirs, so BJ should trouser at least £10M for what surely promises to be a very spicy shame and tell?!

 

As I mentioned on the main forum those trying to force Johnson’s resignation(constructive dismissal) by spreading stories in the media and organising Cabinet revolts would have been better advised to come up with a decent redundancy package to induce him to leave. Instead their plotting has prompted him to hang on perhaps in the hope of bidding up the price. In reality he has little to lose personally by dragging out the process while his opponents will almost certainly inherit the long term consequences.

Unlike most politicians memoirs Johnson’s might actually be worth reading.

[ThoughtCriminal]

600 billion on renewables since 2000 and this is the result.

 

It's starting to give the impression of a car driving off a cliff in slow motion and nobody seems to notice.

 

Keep thinking of that line from Big Short:

 

"It's time to call bullshit"

 

On what?

 

"Everything"

[Axeman123]

9 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

"The source adds that Johnson explained to cabinet ministers tonight that the options are not "Boris or no Boris".

Rather, it's about giving Johnson either a "fresh chancellor and new programme, that Rishi was not prepared to do"

Bishy and BJ have been openly at loggerheads over spending, with Pishy all but openly measuring up for curtains too. I had always assumed the chancellor was imposed on bJ, and he probably sees this situation as his big chance to get a yes man in to spend spend spend.

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Is state nationalisation allowed under EU rules?

When has that ever stopped the French before?

8 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

More likely that Princess Nut Nut won't relinquish her powers or Bojo knows she will leave him once he resigns.

She was breifing against him the other day, saying she opposed appointing Pincher! I think she is dellusional enough to expect a continuing career after BJ goes.

6 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Unlike most politicians memoirs Johnson’s might actually be worth reading.

Why? It would all just be lies and self-serving rationalisations. I would rather read Larry the Cat's memories of this period...

[Lightscribe]

 

[stoobs]

39 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

 

So what's the next safe haven after CHF?

[Democorruptcy]

47 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

 

I was just reading that Santander have whacked their saving rates up a lot in comparison to other high street banks. Is something brewing....?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-10980341/Best-savings-rates-Santander-boosts-rates-big-banks-follow.html

 

[Democorruptcy]

12 minutes ago, stoobs said:

So what's the next safe haven after CHF?

Baked beans.

[RJT1979]

Boris resigned. Fx

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I was just reading that Santander have whacked their saving rates up a lot in comparison to other high street banks. Is

Was just looking yesterday at moving my 0.14% cash isa to *edit see later post, ballsed this up*

In the words of Han Solo 'Ive got a bad feeling about this'. Ive bought more sovs this week.

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Was just looking yesterday at moving my 0.14% cash isa to santanders 2.09% one!

In the words of Han Solo 'Ive got a bad feeling about this'. Ive bought more sovs this week.

Their 2% is a 2 year fixed, bit early for that?

The nastiest ISA is Tesco's "Variable" rate ISA that includes an annual bonus. It's 0.25 variable with bonus 0.97. After BoE rate rises they leave the "Variable" rate at 0.25 but up the annual bonus - for new accounts but don't apply it to the existing ones! "Variable" but "Fixed" at the same time! When I explained it to a couple for friends with money there they weren't happy, thinking they were getting the BoE rate rises because it's "Variable".