Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Ludwig von Mises said, "he who is unfit to serve his fellow citizens wants to rule them." Who would want to be Tory leader or PM given the state of the country and the world? I have no doubt that we shall see a beauty parade of the rapacious, self-interested, narcissistic, ambitious, psychopathic and unscrupulous.  

With limited time to sort out the imbroglio Boris leaves in his wake, the current account deficit at record levels, debt soaring, the costs of servicing debt increasing and a public grown fat at the public teat, how could anybody make a decent first of it?

What we need, fiscal discipline and austerity, we don't want. What we want, government handouts and endless leisure, is self-destructive and beyond our means. Democracy is on the verge of eating itself.

Spot on.

 

It's a poisoned chalice now.

 

Look at those Tory benches and tell me who would have the balls to do whats necessary.

 

Put a gun to my head and I'd say Redwood, Rees Mogg and Baker.

 

None of whom has a chance because they're not wanky media whores.

[afly]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Spot on.

 

It's a poisoned chalice now.

 

Look at those Tory benches and tell me who would have the balls to do whats necessary.

 

Put a gun to my head and I'd say Redwood, Rees Mogg and Baker.

 

None of whom has a chance because they're not wanky media whores.

We're fucked

 

[Starsend]

43 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I dont buy often, i last bought in 2010 and after the Cyprus bail in (when prices promptly cratered)

But i check Baird almost daily.

But only Sovs. And when spot drops, so does a Sov. If its not as much as spot then it must be very close.

My mate owns and runs a semi pawn broker shop, and he is doing brisk trade in gold trinkets of all descriptions. So demand for physical is untainted, come what may, but its not quite accurate imho to say that the physical prices are outstripping spot on any given day. It was hard to get hold of Silver Britts when the whole Gamestop shite was going down back in Jan and thats really the only time physical was unobtainable for a bit. Even then i dont think Sovs were hard to get hold of.

There's a lot of shite spouted on YT etc re PMs. A lot.

Rick Fucking Rule has lost me about £2k in silver miners in a year for starters.

My main reason for not buying more physical is the exit strategy / trade-ability and the possibility of huge taxes or confiscation.

"Its what Putin uses" etc etc

 

Ramble mode: OFF.

That's exactly the reason I don't buy a lot more physical - fear that when it really starts to shine and come into its own (which it sure as hell will), the parasites steal it. Have to say though that I don't care if they introduce a prison sentence of ten years, I will not hand over mine out of principle.

All I want to do is bloody retire and maintain the pot I've built in real terms - that would be sufficient be for me, could manage with no real growth at all. This is extraordinarily hard to do given the state of the Western world, a monetary system on the brink of collapse and thieves running the show. Reckon those of us in our fifties must have drawn the short straw, fucking crap time to be close to retirement.

I'll shall refer to Rick Rule as RFR from this moment onwards 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I don't buy physical frequently enough to know liek you.But looking at bullionbypost,currently one ounce gold bar is circa £1527 which equates to $1826 on the forex sans bid offer.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-bars/1-ounce-gold-bar/

Is that the sort of mark up you normally pay on a bar if spot is $1738?

 

Also @M S E Refugee and any other of our regular physcil PM buyers @Lightscribe?

 

5% seems fair. For Britannia’s due to being CGT exempt the premium is usually slightly higher (6-8%) from my experience.

[Pip321]

On 06/07/2022 at 15:06, JMD said:

Similar result for me, plus my M&G looks to be about to do the same chart trajectory. I still want to buy more across the sector but looks too early at present to go deeper into any of them.                                                                                                            And on that note of when to buy, and also in terms of general buying strategies...    I know laddering-down is often mentioned on the thread, but does anyone here ladder-up? I'm thinking the momentum in the market - bear or bull - should crucially instruct which 'directional ladder' method you employ?

I have been thinking about this and I have laddered up when I think there is a new ‘trading range’. However in this environment if anything I have been doing the opposite ie lowering my ladders and even having sell prices if prices rise rapidly and I am back in the black on something I think has further to fall.

I have made a couple of calls too early and now will probably sell if we have a flurry of activity upward eg a couple of good days…it’s not that I think the long term decision was wrong but now I see the possibility of new lows.

But this is very much ‘trading’ rather than my long term plan. Ie I might now believe I can get the particular stocks I want at even lower prices over the next few months  

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think Rishi and Javid took the first lfieboats they could,find a reason and resign.Sh1t's about to get real methinks.

Boris will get the blame for what's coming and he'll go into the old folks home swearing he's the reincarnation of Churchill and that he won the war against covid.

I agree, something is afoot but what's about to come  ?

[Calcutta]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I agree, something is afoot but what's about to come  ?

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

Quite.

Politicians all of a sudden spouting about honesty is, well, dishonest.

[sleepwello'nights]

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I dont buy often, i last bought in 2010 and after the Cyprus bail in (when prices promptly cratered)

But i check Baird almost daily.

But only Sovs. And when spot drops, so does a Sov. If its not as much as spot then it must be very close.

 

I don't watch physical prices very often, but I see the gold charts on Kitco. The daily price has gone from $1850 to $1750 this year. Some of the move has been covered by the fall in £UK Gold Britannias do seem a tad cheaper than I last recall. There's quite a difference between various dealers:

Baird Mint £1521.91, Coininvest £1491.86, Bullion by post £1548.00

[Bricormortis]

6 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Gold has fallen dramatically in price in July. Any idea why.

The expectation of an ECB pivot is part of the jigsaw apparently.

Commodity weakness also.

[HousePriceMania]

39 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

That's a question I've been pondering.

First thing that happened to Fat Boris in 2020 was Sajid David quit.  Little was made of it at the time.  4 weeks later we have £1Tn QE and 0% IRs and a YES MAN chancellor.  

Roll forward 2 years.  Inflation 11%, IRs 1.25% and the BoE look like doing nothing about it.

House prices up 30%.

Sunak's name has been associated with all this but given that Sajid quit I'd say this was all Fat Boris.  Given his ego and unwillingness to change tact and now leave, it has the signs that this man is a banker front man will no regard for the consequences of his own actions.

Sunak's already rich, he didn't have to push up house prices 30%, Boris of the inbred blue blooded related to the monarchy, useless **** probably needed this economic miracle more than he did.

If someone has a compelling argument as to why the madness we witness was Sunak's doing I like to hear it.  It could of course be both of them, Sunak's ex GS .

[feed]

2 hours ago, afly said:

We're fucked

 

That all reads like it's part of Rishis leadership campaign 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Old faithful never disappoints.

 

Armageddon could be declared imminent and UK housing would still go up.

What sort of armageddon? A meteor crashing to the UK would obviously obliterate some houses, so yes with supply down prices would be up. When people came out of their underground shelters, they would be rushing to buy like after the covid lockdown starting pistol was fired.

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

If someone has a compelling argument as to why the madness we witness was Sunak's doing I like to hear it.  It could of course be both of them, Sunak's ex GS .

IMO Javid resigning was intended to wound BJ, as spite for his having won and perhaps intended to start a trend. He was also a failed leadership contender.

Pishy was parachuted in as fair exchange for his FiL having paid for a GE campaign, no doubt with intentions that he would move next door after BJ hand become soiled "getting Brexit done". Eat out to help out had Pishy front and centre, no doubt intended to build his profile ready for the leadership and subsequent GE. The mega covid handouts in an environment of seemingly limitless scope for QE no doubt appealed to him as he expected it to be the next chancellors' problem once he was in number 10. It is only recently that Pishy has become financially cautious, no doubt fearing he would be the fall guy.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv also bought a few more Ashmore this morning.

Macro: Talks OK

Fundamental: Assumed OK

Technical: Getting better?

[Pip321]

59 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

The way the resignation letter was written (other than it looking like a job advert of his achievements) suggested Sunak wanted to pull back the spending. Ie we have hard times ahead and about ‘being honest with people’. I think that read more economy related than recruiting sex offenders, parties, shagging women etc…those latter things are just business as usual for MPs nowadays 😉

So I think BJ wanted to spend.

However the context is now BJs resignation it now depends on who takes over…..with the inevitable outcome of ‘failing and fucking’ anyway.  

[afly]

Baker would bring Rishi back as chancellor?

 

 

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, afly said:

Baker would bring Rishi back as chancellor?

 

 

Baker setting out his stall as kingmaker, once he has demonstrated his support in the early stages of the contest IMO.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, afly said:

Baker would bring Rishi back as chancellor?

 

 

"Rishi Sunak (“unfulfilled potential”)".  Question answered then.  Although IMHO more like "has yet to show potential"?

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Harley said:

Macro: Talks OK

Fundamental: Assumed OK

Technical: Getting better?

I like their exposure to Asian debt,they should double or more from here over 4 years.Not advice to buy for anyone else,but risk/reward nice.Iv put a ladder down at £1.82 as well if needed.

[HousePriceMania]

57 minutes ago, feed said:

That all reads like it's part of Rishis leadership campaign 

Suddenly he's no longer the idiot who's destroyed the economy but the nice fella who saved us and everyone wants as PM.

A billionaire father in law could buy a lot of friends.

[afly]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Suddenly he's no longer the idiot who's destroyed the economy but the nice fella who saved us and everyone wants as PM.

A billionaire father in law could buy a lot of friends.

I never understood that about Mays election. She was only able to form a majority because she formed a coalition with the DUP by giving them £2bn of public money. That seemed scandalous to me? The press didnt really say much about it at the time, but I'm fairly sure that most people could become PM if they had access to £2bn of other peoples money to fritter away on getting there.

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, afly said:

I never understood that about Mays election. She was only able to form a majority because she formed a coalition with the DUP by giving them £2bn of public money. That seemed scandalous to me? The press didnt really say much about it at the time, but I'm fairly sure that most people could become PM if they had access to £2bn of other peoples money to fritter away on getting there.

The msm are all complicit and part of the establishment scam 

[Boglet]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

Yeah I think it's time to harbour some tins.COuld be a tought winter.For me big kahuna includes breaking of the credit wave in the banks and debt deflation.

Funily enough MP,Mrs P has always mocked my hoarding of tins and water filters and then two nights back we had a power cut and she was worreid about dinner getting cooekd for the kids.No rpoblems says I,wood out of the garage,Barby sparked and food cooked outside.All of a sudden I'm not such a loon....:-)

 

 

Steve baker would be my pick of a very bad bunch.I like the cut of his jib and he's the most libertarian leaning of the tories in parliemnt but he' s surrounded by blood suckers and blood suckers generally pick blood suckers to dish out the goodies.

Must say the US has some promising talent coming through eg ron de santis but for me this  is the sort of leader we need

 

LOL that's great. 

I'm a white nationalist and even I would give very serious consideration to voting for this guy 

[THEFREEMAN]

Gonna have a pint of cask or ginger beer and a chocolate bar tonight to celebrate USD to DKK roping 7.30

onwards and upwards to 8.00