Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I noticed HOC too....they were being discussed only last month and they were 110p then and now they are 81p.

Tempted....but they are a small business so maybe just a small purchase.

Like yourself I have absolute confidence should I buy they will dip irrationally and totally out of character. I pride myself on having that ability 

Coeur has hit my ladder today,the PM complex is getting nicely cheap again.

[Pip321]

53 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Coeur has hit my ladder today,the PM complex is getting nicely cheap again.

Thx...just had a look and I see the PMs have had a tough time and indeed more widely commodities generally. But it feels very short term and some based on China having a snooze for a few weeks.

What I am learning is 'traders' and therefore prices seem to react like a 3 year old who cant have an ice cream...ie they cry, get their own way and just seem to look at the next 3 minutes. With hindsight over the past few years its easy to spot where the traders pushed prices up or down completely wrongly. I guess that's what we try to 'game' in order to build a solid platform but if possible with a bit of extra margin on top. 

Mentioned before several of my ladders are flashing but I am being a bit wary at the moment.....but mainly because my big SIPP is switching funds and it takes 28 days (another 23 days to wait). I would like to see where I am and the markets are at that point before dipping too much into anything else. But I am still tempted with the PM dip...cant help myself. 

Without prying (too much) I imagine your own position is it you prefer Coeur v's Fres/HOC at these prices but that is perhaps a backdrop of the other stuff you already hold ie having balance? Or do you like Coeur more?

[Axeman123]

Any latest thoughts on a Fed Pivot? DH thinks soon, but .75% rise locked on for August. An interesting metric from this tweet says we are already there...

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

Thx...just had a look and I see the PMs have had a tough time and indeed more widely commodities generally. But it feels very short term and some based on China having a snooze for a few weeks.

What I am learning is 'traders' and therefore prices seem to react like a 3 year old who cant have an ice cream...ie they cry, get their own way and just seem to look at the next 3 minutes. With hindsight over the past few years its easy to spot where the traders pushed prices up or down completely wrongly. I guess that's what we try to 'game' in order to build a solid platform but if possible with a bit of extra margin on top. 

Mentioned before several of my ladders are flashing but I am being a bit wary at the moment.....but mainly because my big SIPP is switching funds and it takes 28 days (another 23 days to wait). I would like to see where I am and the markets are at that point before dipping too much into anything else. But I am still tempted with the PM dip...cant help myself. 

Without prying (too much) I imagine your own position is it you prefer Coeur v's Fres/HOC at these prices but that is perhaps a backdrop of the other stuff you already hold ie having balance? Or do you like Coeur more?

I like Coeur for risk reward,my favourite miners are Pan American Silver and Harmony Gold.I thought id made most of my money in PMs when they ran last time,but some are getting interesting here.Im not chasing big gains anymore,but some are looking interesting now.

[BadAlchemy]

54 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Any latest thoughts on a Fed Pivot? DH thinks soon, but .75% rise locked on for August. An interesting metric from this tweet says we are already there...

Hmm, it's a neat little chart that has worked for 30 years and seems too US centric. But now we have inflation everywhere, and 'dollar milkshake' playing out. Would seem harder now to pinpoint when the pivot will be... EMs are doing the defaulting, and that seems to suit the US very well. 

Soon, but not as soon as we might normally expect?

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Any latest thoughts on a Fed Pivot? DH thinks soon, but .75% rise locked on for August. An interesting metric from this tweet says we are already there...

The thing is though liquidity isnt the problem,there is bucket loads of it,but its sat in repo mostly.The Fed will do what it needs to to get that into the economy first.If they monetise government debt now with that in repo they risk hyperinflation.I think they will only do that if the repo money simply wont enter the economy and then they will monetise for government fiscal spending.The private sector is crowded out by the government at the moment,Fed is reallly boxed.They want lending to increase into production so that repo turns into loans.The price signals are there in spades,but lefty governments have destroyed the work/investment ethic.Fed might have to let the economy burn as a funeral pyre for the lefty ideology thats infested the west.

[Axeman123]

@DurhamBorn @BadAlchemy

The interesting thing is that the indicator is focused on the cost of the US servicing it's national debt, and the threat of a debt spiral with ever more Treasuries having to be issued to fund it.

[Noallegiance]

Any commentary on the reasons for this rather relentless US$ climb? 

[dnb24]

58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fed might have to let the economy burn as a funeral pyre for the lefty ideology thats infested the west.

I don’t see how the fed can do any different. People won’t change unless they see the repercussions of their actions. Working with people daily- most have zero clue about action and reaction - our pols are the same- it’s been 40years of a transactional democracy leading to ever greater lunacy. Infrastructure and nation building cannot be developed with the current wet around the ears youth - it simply can’t- but if things got very tough- then the generations that are able to build may pull us through. 
I personally cannot see a smooth transition- the socialist ideologies in all walks of life are just too numerous.

[Noallegiance]

Hydrogen-powered aeroplane engines to be mass produced at British factory (msn.com)

[Boon]

20 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Any commentary on the reasons for this rather relentless US$ climb? 

I would guess that although we all are speculating the Fed is going to pivot at some point, I bet the rest of the central banks like us will have weak arseholes and cave in some time before they do.

[HousePriceMania]

26 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Hydrogen-powered aeroplane engines to be mass produced at British factory (msn.com)

Used to do them in Germany

 

[Noallegiance]

Hydrogen world leader Air Products teams up with VPI for Immingham production plan (msn.com)

 

Just looked up Air Products.

They pay a dividend and are into a variety of industries. $51b market cap.

[Chewing Grass]

31 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Hydrogen-powered aeroplane engines to be mass produced at British factory (msn.com)

I smell American bullshit startup scam seeking gullible investors.

[Transistor Man]

9 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I smell American bullshit startup scam seeking gullible investors.

Fuel cell based. Power/ thrust to weight ratio will be very low - for a plane.

[Loki]

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62121262

 

Signs are there that the arse is falling out of everything.

[geordie_lurch]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62121262

Signs are there that the arse is falling out of everything.

Yep I saw it late April / early May in the eCommerce sector data I see and posted about it in this thread whilst I also sold most of my stocks to sit in cash. IMHO we are already months into a recession no matter what the official stats say and nailed on for an economic depression

Remember the larger the bubble the further everything has to drop to correct things

[ThoughtCriminal]

43 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep I saw it late April / early May in the eCommerce sector data I see and posted about it in this thread whilst I also sold most of my stocks to sit in cash. IMHO we are already months into a recession no matter what the official stats say and nailed on for an economic depression

Remember the larger the bubble the further everything has to drop to correct things

I agree completely.

 

My only worry now is that we're so far into Alice in the looking glass world that the data can be made to say anything.

 

I mean they've always lied, but inflation was more or less the headline figure etc, it had some relation to reality. But now...........

[jamtomorrow]

11 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Any latest thoughts on a Fed Pivot? DH thinks soon, but .75% rise locked on for August. An interesting metric from this tweet says we are already there...

No particular thoughts on Fed pivot, but - zooming out - this style of analysis is, for me, getting closer in terms of asking the right questions about where we're at, systemically speaking.

Full marks for bringing acceleration into it - shows awareness that we're dealing with a dynamical system, and therefore stability is in play.

[BadAlchemy]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The thing is though liquidity isnt the problem,there is bucket loads of it,but its sat in repo mostly.The Fed will do what it needs to to get that into the economy first.If they monetise government debt now with that in repo they risk hyperinflation.I think they will only do that if the repo money simply wont enter the economy and then they will monetise for government fiscal spending.The private sector is crowded out by the government at the moment,Fed is reallly boxed.They want lending to increase into production so that repo turns into loans.The price signals are there in spades,but lefty governments have destroyed the work/investment ethic.Fed might have to let the economy burn as a funeral pyre for the lefty ideology thats infested the west.

Apparently, the RRP rate doubled (from 0.8 to 1.55%) on June 16th.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYAWARD

Jeff Snider tweet just now about "massive repo fails" in 2nd half June

His explanation of what a 'repo fail' could be... https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/03/01/last-year-wasnt-the-year-of-inflation-it-was-a-year-of-consistent-inflationary-fail/

Summary... Could be short sellers of treasuries, though he believes more likely collateral shortage and deflationary risk ahead.

I dont know, just feels to me like that RRP cash is needed to stay where it is, for whatever reason, for now, otherwise something blows up...

?

Edit: or perhaps to ensure that something DOES get blown up/rest of world is suitably punished for the attack on USD hegemony etc etc...

[geordie_lurch]

Posted this elsewhere but warrants posting here too as Martin Lewis has started calling for communal warm spaces this winter in the UK. Germany has been converting Covid places already apparently

EDIT Added Martin 'Twat' Lewis' tweet below for context now too

[Pip321]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Posted this elsewhere but warrants posting here too as Martin Lewis has started calling for communal warm spaces this winter in the UK. Germany has been converting Covid places already apparently

 

Nice find…

I am confused….if people are cold why can’t they just warm up when they go to their gym or golf club? Ps I am now so out of touch I am thinking of entering politics. 

Because of Putin….🤦🏻‍♂️. If (or when) China are more fully dragged into this by ‘The West’ then this is going to be a real shit show.

Still….I might get my lower ladder on a few more shares, so every cloud etc 😉

[wherebee]

Just now, Pip321 said:

Nice find…

I am confused….if people are cold why can’t they just warm up when they go to their gym or golf club? Ps I am now so out of touch I am thinking of entering politics. 

Because of Putin….🤦🏻‍♂️. If (or when) China are more fully dragged into this by ‘The West’ then this is going to be a real shit show.

Still….I might get my lower ladder on a few more shares, so every cloud etc 😉

the correct utterance is 'If people are cold in their homes, why don't they go to the conservatory?"

[The Bear of Doom]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Posted this elsewhere but warrants posting here too as Martin Lewis has started calling for communal warm spaces this winter in the UK. Germany has been converting Covid places already apparently

 

We could call these places "public houses" instead of "warming halls". Maybe they could serve refreshments as well. Hang on, I think I'm onto something here!