Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bus Stop Boxer]

1 hour ago, BurntBread said:

Maybe she could just implement the manifesto from the last election? That would be a start.

There are so many easy wins available to her, its always made me wonder why Boris never went for them.

Boris, it is said, is a man who wants to be liked. So why did he not go for said easy wins?

There are 80 diversity officers in the MoD according to Kevin O'Sullivan on Talkshyte just now.

The whole civil service needs bringing down and starting again.

RED MEAT.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

My division at work has today gained a new Parasite, a quote 'sustainability lead' to report on 'sustainability metrics such as carbon, energy and water savings' to 'develop our capability in this area as a differentiator to grow the business'.

Blackrock and the lizard people will be chuffed.

 

[Errol]

Just now, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Boris, it is said, is a man who wants to be liked. So why did he not go for said easy wins?

Another easy win - cut fares for public transport by 50%. Encourages people to travel to spend money and keep more money to spend in the economy after commuting.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone know why Hargreaves is shooting up today? ,something over the Woodford legal stuff,or delayed reaction to results?

Upgraded by Barclays and DB

[geordie_lurch]

For the more open minded amongst those here covering the larger picture take on what's most likely been going on the last few years and more importantly what could be next from Dr Verman Coleman in this 18 min video:

https://vernoncoleman.org/videos/i-warned-about-soaring-inflation-and-interest-rates-2020-so-whats-next

He'd fit in well in several threads here and I like his 'death rattle' analogy for where we are currently 

[Errol]

 

[Starsend]

Anybody remember when banks used to offer you a tenner to switch your current account to them? It gradually increased over the years, £20 then £50 then £80 then £100.

Just got an email from Santander offering me £160 to switch my account to them. If that doesn't show the debauchment of the currency then I dunno what does.

[Axeman123]

Winter of discontent is being organised:

https://wesayenough.co.uk/about-us/

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, desertorchid said:

Harley. I have a mixed portfolio of china/HK and UK stocks. I think you contradict yourself a bit as by and large (China developers excepted) Asian (HK in particular) have much stronger balance sheets than most on the FTSE. I would be interested to hear your interpretation of this. Also these stocks are pegged to a USD which seems less skittish than GBP atm. Don't get me wrong HK/China have some huge issues but I cannot see how you tie these two thoughts together as you say you are selling China/HK..

I think you have to be careful ref China/HK balance sheets depending on the business where it operates etc in terms of goodwill/untangibles.Even the tangibles have to be carefully vetted if any of it's property.

One of our oil/energy leads poss @Cattle Prod suggested that staed reserves of big China oilies might not be that accurate.

[sancho panza]

via kaplan

 

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think you have to be careful ref China/HK balance sheets depending on the business where it operates etc in terms of goodwill/untangibles.Even the tangibles have to be carefully vetted if any of it's property.

One of our oil/energy leads poss @Cattle Prod suggested that staed reserves of big China oilies might not be that accurate.

True but the world has moved on so I would no more trust the Western ones.  I do look for red flags, and not only in HK, these include:

. Owned by a tycoon

. Interlocking subsidiaries, parents, joint ventures, minority interests, etc

. Conglomerates with a diverse set of lines of business

. Key contracts, related party transactions, events, contingent liabilities, disclosures/notes, movements in asset valuations, risks, etc 

. Odd cash flows

. ......

No guarantees but I have avoided a few.  I'd like to think funds have boots on the ground doing due diligence but then most seem passive trackers.

PS:  I thought everyone lied about their reserves!  My play on Chinese refiners were to process Russian crude!

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

via kaplan

 

But I saw a chart only last week or the week before saying the opposite!  So much noise out there.

[Harley]

39 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Winter of discontent is being organised:

https://wesayenough.co.uk/about-us/

What do they mean by "rich" and precisely how do they expect to achieve this in an economically literate way?

[desertorchid]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

True but the world has moved on so I would no more trust the Western ones.  I do look for red flags, and not only in HK, these include:

. Owned by a tycoon

. Interlocking subsidiaries, parents, joint ventures, minority interests, etc

. Conglomerates with a diverse set of lines of business

. Key contracts, related party transactions, events, contingent liabilities, disclosures/notes, movements in asset valuations, risks, etc 

. Odd cash flows

. ......

No guarantees but I have avoided a few.  I'd like to think funds have boots on the ground doing due diligence but then most seem passive trackers.

 

 

Conglomerates with a diverse set of lines of business- some of these companies have their toes in telecoms, utilities, infrastructure,  property, logistics, healthcare. This seems pretty useful when combined with strong cash flow and high net assets. If taken on face value some of the P/B ratios are insanely good compared with UK stocks.(an example might be Hutchison with 0.69 P/B value, lower than anything I can find on the FTSE)

 

 

[JohnnyB]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

What do they mean by "rich" and precisely how do they expect to achieve this in an economically literate way?

"It’s not just about those in work, either. There needs to be the same increase in pensions and benefits to ensure those who need support aren’t left behind."

 

If they had said to massively reduce tax credits instead I would be signing up

 

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

What do they mean by "rich" and precisely how do they expect to achieve this in an economically literate way?

Organised by trade unions, so the bolded part isn't going to apply of course. This kind of organisation must still terrify the establishment though, this group want the £1200 energy price cap reinstated* for example and a majority would agree with that if polled. Convincing people that something isn't even an option seems to be a key strategy for controlling people.

*People will say that isn't economically literate, I would counter that neither is £4k.

[Boon]

That company Enough is Enough was incorporated only 4 August, already got Twitter accounts.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14276790

Suspect the main guy will end up enriched somehow and inflated 'management' fees will be paid.

Someone with deep pockets is backing these things.

[Starsend]

46 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Winter of discontent is being organised:

https://wesayenough.co.uk/about-us/

Hopefully they'll be some good riots this Winter, I've always wanted to trash a Lidl but I'd never have the balls to start chucking avocados around by myself.

 

[CannonFodder]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

A lot has been going in since then with more in the pipeline.  I've always been with Napier on financial regulatory repression, but with a wider view. 

Got any links - sounds interesting?

[nirvana]

bloody hell, you'll never guess what's on the radio? I am the black gold of the sun......

Markets are up, we're all saved! wot da fuk is happening out there? 

[SpectrumFX]

8 minutes ago, nirvana said:

bloody hell, you'll never guess what's on the radio? I am the black gold of the sun......

Markets are up, we're all saved! wot da fuk is happening out there? 

Perhaps Mr Hunter was on the ball, and this is the bit where we watch and learn?

[janch]

On 07/08/2022 at 12:22, MightyTharg said:

I think she’s doing well. 

If you don’t understand the time value of  money, just look at the extremes. If money became completely worthless she would have 2 and a half properties and owe nothing. (instead of having the same properties and owing hundreds of thousands of pounds). Can you not see that this makes her a lot better off?

if money loses half it’s value over the next four years (which is about what we expect) then she is better off by half as much.

There’s no way she could make that much by working or investing in shares.

The only way it doesn’t work is if inflation goes down, but the people making the decision on whether to fight inflation all benefit from inflation (public sector pay and especially pensions will soar compared to those in the private sector). Or if she has cash flow problems in the meantime.

But you've entirely forgotten to include the capital in the equation.  If the house price falls in value then when she comes to sell her net position could well be negative.

There;s not much point in having a massive mortgsge wih rapidly rising inflation eating away at your debts if house prices are falling like a stone.

It worked in the 70s as it was a time when house prices were rising.......now as we have a mighty bubble it's likely they'll tumble (unless the government props them up...............again)

[nirvana]

14 hours ago, Pip321 said:

If you begin to regain perspective and hope, can I strongly recommend you then watch Inside Job. 

fyi, that's available on thepiratebay.......can't remember if I watched it.....it's a YIFY upload too, that guy was a legend, then he retired

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think Powell's 'neutral rate' has helped asset managers get a bid since.

what exactly did he say??

[JMD]

5 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

WTF is this piece of legislation: Sanctions and Money Laundering Act of 2018.

I've never seen anything publicised about it. A quote from a firm of lawyers discussing it "However, the Act goes further than is strictly necessary to achieve post-Brexit international compliance: it gives the U.K. government new powers to operate its own sanctions regime and one that, in some respects, goes beyond current practice."

https://www.shearman.com/perspectives/2018/06/sanctions-and-anti-money-laundering-act

A piece of legislation from a "Tory" government that Tony Bliar would be proud of. Introduced in anticipation of a Russian special operation, perhaps!

Agreed. And I think it is so insidious that these UK laws can be used internally on its own citizenry. I agree it is outrageous that these laws have been passed without any real public debate. The online harms bill is another recent example of increased government powers. The Free Speech Union (Toby Young) and both the Good law project and the Bad law project (Laurence Fox) all do good job at attempting a fight back - however these organisations are not invited onto MSM, which tells me they have been effectively sidelined by tptb. Very very worrying.

Apartheid South Africa operated 'banning orders' which effectively censored activists it didn't like by not only preventing the individual from attending public gatherings, giving speeches, writing articles etc, it also banned anyone else, including newspapers, from even mentioning the name of the 'banned person'. They became a non-person.

Imo the 'sanctions and money laundering act' goes much further. Because if you can't hold bank accounts in a (virtually) cashless society, the sanctioned individual becomes a mere supplicant of the state. Plus because these measures are classed as 'security powers', there is no legal oversight or open court process, instead the orders are implemented by government decree.