Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JimmyTheBruce]

23 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

@kibuc

Hope you’re feeling better with the investments now fella. Some of the miners are flying from their lows. ABRA and AXU are on the way up and recovering nicely.

Well that was the kiss of death:

But come back anyway @kibuc

[Lightscribe]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

if @AWW is right( he said something like 4 flats out of his block of 16 have been put up for sale by LL's trying to exit) ,then we're llooking at the pre panic phase in London LL's.The savvy ones are bailing out(you could argue the savvy ones are gone) but soon there will be a crush at the exit.

Rents will rise for a while now as BTLers withdraw from the amrkets.The rising rents will convince the majority it's jsut a BTFD moment and some will.

Interesting times coming as we head to winter and rising fuel/food bills & unemployment meet rising rents.There's a sh1tstorm coming.

This was always going to be the crunch point. Since 2015, I thought that ‘Build to Rent’ new build blocks rented by large organisations in the cities would overtake the individual private BTL landlords as the increasing regulations and taxes drove them slowly out, creating less competition for driving prices up those wanting able to buy as landlords gradually sold off portfolios. That would have been the obvious solution.

Then during the pandemic the government poured petrol on the fire with the stamp duty holiday which sent the property market and BTL speculation into overdrive. 

We are now at pivotal point and the government hasn’t even acknowledged the elephant in the room.

Theres going to be lots of people defaulting, not paying rent/energy/bills and a court system backlogged for years so no evictions. Rent rises will exasperate the situation by making people secure rentals paying 12 months in advance etc. 

This will then ricochet onto the over leveraged landlords making them go bust when they can neither cover their rising costs with higher than market rental prices or evict their tenants.

The shit is going to massively hit the fan and the government are completely unequipped to deal it.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

No idea........

Weak dollar pahse then recession.History suggests mroe than likely.Fed fears unemployed BLMers more than bond holders getting hosed.

Really enjoy and look forward to your twitter posts TC.Saves me scrolling throuhg.and quite often the message is about as succinct as you can get

Nice of you to say, SP.

 

I don't have the knowledge of you, DB, Harley, CP and others, so I just try to share interesting information.

 

My approach to what's interesting information matches what the Supreme court justice said of pornography: I can't define it but I know it when I see it. 

[Harley]

7 hours ago, Metalheadz said:

THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST: PETER ZEIHAN (August 8, 2022)

The latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast sees the welcome return of geopolitical strategist and author, Peter Zeihan – a man who has, in his previous two appearances, shaken many long-held assumptions about the balance of geopolitical power around the world.

This time Peter trains his gaze on Europe, picking apart the strengths and weaknesses of the EU as it tries to navigate its way through the most serious energy crisis in living memory as well as inflation that is headed for double digits.

Peter’s conclusions will likely surprise many as he singles out one particular country where the problems may lead to a catastrophic outcome for the country in question and the wider European Union.

Oh, of course, there’s still time to talk about China, the US and a post-Brexit Britain which is in the middle of a political crisis all of its own.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aeowOrczfRWkejps0tNvQH6cKX5MrJnh/view?usp=sharing

.

[Loki]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'm a stuck record, I know,

Don't care, keep posting 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

if @AWW is right( he said something like 4 flats out of his block of 16 have been put up for sale by LL's trying to exit) ,then we're llooking at the pre panic phase in London LL's.The savvy ones are bailing out(you could argue the savvy ones are gone) but soon there will be a crush at the exit. BAILED OUT 18 MONTHS AGO.

Rents will rise for a while now as BTLers withdraw from the amrkets.The rising rents will convince the majority it's jsut a BTFD moment and some will.

Interesting times coming as we head to winter and rising fuel/food bills & unemployment meet rising rents.There's a sh1tstorm coming.

 

[Loki]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Everyone better prey for global warming.

How dare you

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Betfair is implying ~90% chance of Truss, but I suppose anything is possible.

Most members will send their votes back as soon as they get them, and the claim that some might not get them until "as late as" the 11th probably means the vast majority have already had them. There might even be enough votes recieved at Tory HQ to call it already if the split is strongly enough for Truss.

The massive ramp up in Pishy propaganda on twitter starting yesterday implies to me he will essentially stop campaigning by the weekend. Unless there is a strict ban on opening returned votes I expect a leak well before the 5th Sept.

You noticed it too.

Everything on twitter yesterday was like the annual golden shower convention....Pishi everywhere.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

You noticed it too.

Everything on twitter yesterday was like the annual golden shower convention....Pishi everywhere.

The left and the elite are all pushing for Dishy as well.

[HousePriceMania]

Anyone get the feeling the BoE dont want to raise Interest Rates ?

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

The left and the elite are all pushing for Dishy as well.

I had noticed.

All the MSM commentators, media outlets etc all going for Pishi.

Odd that the voters aren't 

As I said....the old school tories are in the main WASP tory racists ****s, therefore Sunak has no chance.

Most of the women are sexist too so will go for the woman candicate.

That leaves him with about 10% of the tory members to support him.

If he wins, I think it's safe to say it's rigged, though May grabbing power was as rigged as anything that I have seen.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

if @AWW is right( he said something like 4 flats out of his block of 16 have been put up for sale by LL's trying to exit) ,then we're llooking at the pre panic phase in London LL's.The savvy ones are bailing out(you could argue the savvy ones are gone) but soon there will be a crush at the exit.

Rents will rise for a while now as BTLers withdraw from the amrkets.The rising rents will convince the majority it's jsut a BTFD moment and some will.

Interesting times coming as we head to winter and rising fuel/food bills & unemployment meet rising rents.There's a sh1tstorm coming.

I think London rents are also catching up with LHA rates after Rishi Rich Sunak banged them up at the start of the pandemic. Where I used to live the going rate for a basic one or two bed flat was LHA plus £200. New listing asking prices seem to now be back at that level.

[HousePriceMania]

41 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I think London rents are also catching up with LHA rates after Rishi Rich Sunak banged them up at the start of the pandemic. Where I used to live the going rate for a basic one or two bed flat was LHA plus £200. New listing asking prices seem to now be back at that level.

God bless Rishi....says no one bar the rich and the spongers

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Well that was the kiss of death:

But come back anyway @kibuc

I unloaded some Alexco and Abra yesterday as I was too heavy after averaging down, so maybe I did give some of the miners the kiss of death.

Gold not being allowed to go past $1800. $ still not turning just yet.

Widows and orphans but I can afford to wait for this widow.

[Ash4781b]

8 hours ago, afly said:

Now predicting £4,266 in Jan. £650 more than was predicted last week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62475171

 

Presumably that leads into the Bank of England raising inflation forecast. Maybe we will get to 20%.it will be in the fan chart. 

[M S E Refugee]

I have started nibbling at the Oil Tankers again, it looks like the sector is starting to consolidate as there has been a couple of mergers recently.

I'm starting to build a position in Navigator Holdings Ltd who own a fleet of LPG Tankers, hopefully they can take advantage of those stupid Germans this Winter.

[Ash4781b]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

This was always going to be the crunch point. Since 2015, I thought that ‘Build to Rent’ new build blocks rented by large organisations in the cities would overtake the individual private BTL landlords as the increasing regulations and taxes drove them slowly out, creating less competition for driving prices up those wanting able to buy as landlords gradually sold off portfolios. That would have been the obvious solution.

Then during the pandemic the government poured petrol on the fire with the stamp duty holiday which sent the property market and BTL speculation into overdrive. 

We are now at pivotal point and the government hasn’t even acknowledged the elephant in the room.

Theres going to be lots of people defaulting, not paying rent/energy/bills and a court system backlogged for years so no evictions. Rent rises will exasperate the situation by making people secure rentals paying 12 months in advance etc. 

This will then ricochet onto the over leveraged landlords making them go bust when they can neither cover their rising costs with higher than market rental prices or evict their tenants.

The shit is going to massively hit the fan and the government are completely unequipped to deal it.

BTL risk looks totally mis-priced. There’s no articles yet but how to pay the energy bill but depends on the hierarchy in peoples minds. One might be Food, heat, then rent etc.
 

I expect the gov’ will be working behind scenes as don’t see how the BTL doesn’t go from ok with low arrears to rocketing arrears and huge cashflow problems for leveraged BTL. 

[DurhamBorn]

 

31 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have started nibbling at the Oil Tankers again, it looks like the sector is starting to consolidate as there has been a couple of mergers recently.

I'm starting to build a position in Navigator Holdings Ltd who own a fleet of LPG Tankers, hopefully they can take advantage of those stupid Germans this Winter.

"about 99 red balloons,and how one thing leads to another"

 

[Lightscribe]

6 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

BTL risk looks totally mis-priced. There’s no articles yet but how to pay the energy bill but depends on the hierarchy in peoples minds. One might be Food, heat, then rent etc.
 

I expect the gov’ will be working behind scenes as don’t see how the BTL doesn’t go from ok with low arrears to rocketing arrears and huge cashflow problems for leveraged BTL. 

I expect they’ve been planning this for years. It’s the end of globalisation, cheap energy, labour and resources, it was always going to come to this point, however financially illiterate the general populace think the government is, the banking old guard is not.

I firmly believe that the reason we hear nothing from the government in the face of loud sirens screaming that we’re heading for catastrophe is that they are complicit in it. 

[Froggy2000]

14 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

however financially illiterate the general populace think the government is, the banking old guard is not.

I agree. The old monied elite know whats coming.

[No One]

@DurhamBorn Since the I bought based on the tip you gave me on Companhia Enrgetica de Minas Gerai I am up 60% (thank you).

My question is, it is currently at peak, never has it gone above this level. Its gone up and down twice before.

Is it worth selling at this point or do you see this stock possibly breaching its resistance lvel? What does your macro outlook say?

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn Since the I bought based on the tip you gave me on Companhia Enrgetica de Minas Gerai I am up 60% (thank you).

My question is, it is currently at peak, never has it gone above this level. Its gone up and down twice before.

Is it worth selling at this point or do you see this stock possibly breaching its resistance lvel? What does your macro outlook say?

 

 

 

I own the stock as well and its done very nicely for us hasnt it,as have others in Brazil.I cant give individual advice because i have no idea if it goes up or down this week,month,year etc.However what iv done with some of mine including that one is sell some and buy Blackrock Latin American Investment Trust.Exposure to the economies still,less upside maybe,but 4 divis a year.

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

"about 99 red balloons,and how one thing leads to another"

 

I nearly bought that single in Woolworths on a school trip to Keswick but I ended up buying "ullo John, got a new motor" by Alexei Sayle.

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

Looking at the FTSE 100 heatmap, it didn't look like a number go up day. It did, by +0.08%. Just had a look for the share weightings and these are from March. Shell, Astra Zeneca & HSBC make up over 21%.

Index of FTSE Russell weightings for world indices

 

 

[Animal Spirits]

Why your pension pot will now run out 15 years early

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fpensions-retirement%2Ffinancial-planning%2Fwhy-pension-pot-will-now-run-15-years-early%2F

DT journos reading the thread again.