Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

On another subject: I'm sure it's nothing.............

That's very interesting to see.........appreciate the heads up.

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Does anyone in the hive mind have ideas of the best way to short Germany?

 

This looks a prime candidate.A cold winter with no heating,consumers won't be buying in food they cna buy themselves at half the price .  down heavily already but still a long way to go to imho

tow bumper years during the coof and thats about it.

also looking peaky,although the russians and chiense do like their mercs so maybe not

Also another coof beneficiary,so short GMY and aslo the return of the coof

[Bus Stop Boxer]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Does anyone in the hive mind have ideas of the best way to short Germany?

 

Call me Contrarian T, but I'm strongly starting to suspect they're the most fucked out of everyone.

 

[Sugarlips]

 

 

[DoINeedOne]

23 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Our local Waitrose became a Lidl,which tells a layman like me the direction of travel isn't going to be kind to John Lewis.Also Mrs P and her friends are the type who'd have frequented M&S and JL stores in the past in terms of earnings/disposable income and I don't think any of them shop there.Another cold winter and things will be even worse for both those co.s.

We've discussed before but it's worth reiterating,the JL leadership team have very little retail experience.Diverse though.The only two males seem to carry the bulk of said experience.FInance lady has been there 14 years too.But otherwise the other 4,look very lightweight imho especially going into the recession that will likely take it down.

https://www.johnlewispartnership.co.uk/about/meet-the-board.html

I think Shaun Ricards nailed the essence of the western sanctions when he said

'the only people we seem to be sanctioning is ourselves.'

I shop at Waitrose weekly not a full shop but there's 4-5 things i buy weekly from there that i like and with there app i get vouchers for around 50% off 2 of those items each week

One thing i have noticed over the last couple of months is shorter dates on things normally they are pretty good but also lots of yellow stickers they really seem to be struggling to shift stock 

[DoINeedOne]

4 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

 

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

How homogenous is the german population? Lots of Merkel's millions too within the rest of the EU could swamp the country if they had warning of the borders closing. An EU breakup could be the trigger for migrant dumping on a mass scale IMO.

Two years ago,I'd have said the EU break up was a decade away.Looking at the repercussions of how badly they've mangled the sanctions by using them to destroy their own industry and the scope for extended financial support of peripheral Target2 debtor nations,the whole facade could collapse if/when Italy leaves which could be three years away.

Lot of people will be hitting their cars at that point.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The best way to actually invest this cycle is find the countries with the most resources per capita and invest in their domestic companies and bonds.Norway,Turkey,Brazil,Chile,Argentina (i know) etc.Even Ireland with its huge food production.

 

AS I've said previously telecoms are a great way to access these economies imho.Turkcell looks a great punt as does Argentina Telecom.Ideally think you need to avodi the banks and they do oftern dominate the upper ends of ETF holdings.

https://www.investing.com/equities/telecom-argentina-financial-summary

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Any thoughts on Colombia? 4th largest economy in Latin America, and heavily tipped elsewhere.

It would be great if someone could put some metrics (akin perhaps to coma scores) to.  candidate countries

Goodidea.I've got the kids off school so have little time but definteily an idea.

stock mark chart/debt to gdp ratio/currency stability(incl infkation)/poltical stability(UK f*cked then)/commodity potential

the mind boggles but it makes a lot of sense to try and score these countries in some way.

[ILikeCake]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

All the contractors have disappeared.  They all went permy, making it looks like wages were rising.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/where-have-all-the-uk-s-self-employed-gone/ar-AA10sCG7?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=81fc74d0883e44b4ae12baebf87150ab

 

 

IR35 killed it for most of the ones I work with.

[Pip321]

Just now, DoINeedOne said:

I shop at Waitrose weekly not a full shop but there's 4-5 things i buy weekly from there that i like and with there app i get vouchers for around 50% off 2 of those items each week

One thing i have noticed over the last couple of months is shorter dates on things normally they are pretty good but also lots of yellow stickers they really seem to be struggling to shift stock 

We bought 4 nacho boxes from Waitrose last week £2.18. They are £3.95 at the Co-op and £3 at the large asda. 

Our main shop is now M&S and often end up with yellow sticker items….if it’s a decent reduction. But haven’t notice more of them yet. 

Interestingly the Orange Juice, big milks, yogurt (proper Greek), fruit and bread are all cheaper at M&S than the local stores ie Co-op, Sainsburys, one-stop. Also their own products (yet to try) like beans are hugely cheaper than heinz. Now from a snob value The public might not buy Asda own beans but they may replace heinz with M&S.

Pretty sure all retail is doomed but I am keeping one eye on M&S…it’s an interesting proposition. I guess it’s biggest challenge is getting a younger customer base. 

[Sasquatch]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was the same,my peak earnings were when i was 29 at GSK.Iv had close since,but never more.The key to my life was i learned about macro and cycles etc in my early 20s,so most of the times iv earned decent money its compounded up.Being able to be frugal has also been vital to my life.From that 29 i could just about live on the divis,hard then,but doable.It meant when i was working on good money i could save 80% of it and over time with investment gains it increased to where i now get investment income almost the same as my peak earnings.ISAs and SIPPs in tandem work very well for a tax free income.£16,700 tax free a year from a SIPP with Uncrystalised pension lump sums,then the ISA income.33% less income can equal the exact same income of a worker and less costs,its probably 50%

I did run some capital down though from 30 to 36 because i had 6 years off travelling around the country seeing different women.127 i think the tally was.No regrets at all on that,fantastic times.

Just a few investments that do very well can make a huge difference though.My dad bought some Anglo American just below £5,his divis on them last year were something like 45% on his initial investment.

This cycle can easily take even us on here down though,inflation and a government eyeing taxing any wealth in panic at what they have created.

 

Different for me. Peak earnings right now (in terms of earnings per hour). Probably because I'm in a niche part of the industry doing a niche job. Nearly 35 years of experience just when my peer group are starting to retire young. On top of this, skills are dumbing down at an ever increasing rate. It's not difficult to look good in that kind of environment.

[Sugarlips]

21 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

We bought 4 nacho boxes from Waitrose last week £2.18. They are £3.95 at the Co-op and £3 at the large asda. 

Our main shop is now M&S and often end up with yellow sticker items….if it’s a decent reduction. But haven’t notice more of them yet. 

Interestingly the Orange Juice, big milks, yogurt (proper Greek), fruit and bread are all cheaper at M&S than the local stores ie Co-op, Sainsburys, one-stop. Also their own products (yet to try) like beans are hugely cheaper than heinz. Now from a snob value The public might not buy Asda own beans but they may replace heinz with M&S.

Pretty sure all retail is doomed but I am keeping one eye on M&S…it’s an interesting proposition. I guess it’s biggest challenge is getting a younger customer base. 

Interesting. Is there an aggregator app that tracks prices of individual comparable items yet?

[DoINeedOne]

8 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Interesting. Is there an aggregator app that tracks prices of individual comparable items yet?

https://www.trolley.co.uk seems pretty good 

[nirvana]

On 09/08/2022 at 07:45, nirvana said:

ALL's FAIR IN LOVE AND WAR......DXY has found a new support level at 105.5.......never mind Dave 

ok I'm back to call myself a CUNT for making that prediction   Tempted to post a bum but I'll behave myself 

tough gig bros.......is it time for a holiday?

methinks markets overreacted a bit to those CPI figs but TWT eh....

I was a bit mean to a couple of cunts upstairs so I've come to hide down here again.....

[sancho panza]

Barrick announced Monday,held divi at $0.20 for Q2.Also chart measuring relative perfomance from Sept 18 low of $1200 on the monthlies versus some of the bigger players

 

same stocks at the july 20 peak

 

Decl:long already,likely adding some NEM calls this afternoon Mar 23 $55/60

[Yadda yadda yadda]

47 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

 

 

When she was translated as saying "buy and hold" I was wondering "how much" and thinking "a timeshare would probably do".

[sancho panza]

Dixie getting a kicking.Weak dollar phase??

[Axeman123]

50 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

stock mark chart/debt to gdp ratio/currency stability(incl infkation)/poltical stability(UK f*cked then)/commodity potential

Just taking some data from the CIA world fact book:

Colombia

Debt to GDP

49.4%

Currency Stability

"Colombian pesos (COP) per US dollar -

3,457.93 (2020 est.)

3,416.5 (2019 est.)

3,147.43 (2018 est.)

2,001 (2014 est.)

2,001.1 (2013 est.)"

Not great.

Political Stability

"Despite decades of internal conflict and drug-related security challenges, Colombia maintains relatively strong and independent democratic institutions characterized by peaceful, transparent elections and the protection of civil liberties."

Mixed

Commodity potential

"Colombia heavily depends on energy and mining exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. Colombia is Latin America’s fourth largest oil producer and the world’s fourth largest coal producer, third largest coffee exporter..."

Decent.

Turkey

Debt to GDP

28.3%

Inflation certainly helps with that I am sure.

Currency Stability

"Turkish liras (TRY) per US dollar -

7.81925 (2020 est.)

5.8149 (2019 est.)

5.28905 (2018 est.)

2.72 (2014 est.)

2.1885 (2013 est.)"

LOL - USD:TRY currently 17.9!

Political Stability

"Since the attempted coup, Turkish Government authorities arrested, suspended, or dismissed more than 130,000 security personnel, journalists, judges, academics, and civil servants due to their alleged connection to Gulen's movement. Following the failed coup, the Turkish Government instituted a State of Emergency from July 2016 to July 2018. The Turkish Government conducted a referendum on 16 April 2017 in which voters approved constitutional amendments changing Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system. The amendments went into effect fully following the presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2018."

Not great

Commodity Potential

"Turkey remains highly dependent on imported oil and gas but is pursuing energy relationships with a broader set of international partners and taking steps to increase use of domestic energy sources including renewables, nuclear, and coal. The joint Turkish-Azerbaijani Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline is moving forward to increase transport of Caspian gas to Turkey and Europe, and when completed will help diversify Turkey's sources of imported gas."

Industrial rather than commodity driven.

Turning that into scores gets more complicated.

Source:

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/

 

 

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Dixie getting a kicking.Weak dollar phase??

Yup. Here’s where the miners should run (along with everything else). If DH is going to be in any ballpark of being right with his call it’s going to be from here.
 

Look at the FT comments, they all think inflation is over. Well done to the Fed a couple of rate rises to 2.50% have sorted 10% inflation right out. One more to go and everything will be fixed.

Except it won’t. Oh no, oil price was a lead, really just pricing in lower demand in a recession not down to fantastic Fed policy decision and high employment was just a lag to higher unemployment when the recession takes hold thanks to high costs and people with no money to spend. Stagflation.

Oh shit market tanks, BK, Fed pivot, QE to hyperinflation.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 09/08/2022 at 13:12, DurhamBorn said:

.........People can knock Truss all they like but at least she seems to want to help those who actually go to work.I actually get quite aroused by her 

Most sexual excitement that speaker has ever seen in his life at the commons!

 

Onwards to the serious stuff ...

I watched Peter Zeihan's video posted upthread, next in the queue was Gerald Celente - love this guy, I ain't seen a video from him since winter, blimey was this interview FULL ON, One of Gerald’s best interviews!

 

Daniela was visibly shaken!

 

"This time, there will be no getaway plan [for investors],"warns trends forecaster and publisher of the popular Trends Journal, Gerald Celente. The crisis that we are facing now is unprecedented and he believes, "we are in a "new world disorder." he tells our Daniela Cambone.

 

Gerald warns, "When all else fails they take you to war, and this economy has failed." He says, "Gold prices should have been skyrocketing the last three years," but financial institutions are stifling the price. "Gold prices should be $2,500 an ounce, they're rigging @nirvana the precious metals market," he concludes.

 

 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Labour and Tory Governments for the last twenty years have relentlessly hounded anybody with the balls to work for themselves, especially if you were working with the 'white heat of technology'.

Hardly surprising if people don't want the demented cretins on their back any longer.

They'll be moaning pretty soon about a lack of flexibility in the economy. These people are so stupid it's incredible, it wasn't always like this, even in living memory.

I start a new job in a couple of weeks. It's a one year fixed contract. We negotiated a day rate as though I was a contractor, then they converted that into a permanent salary and benefits package. I was flabbergasted, frankly. Now getting contractor wages and permie benefits, including matched pension contribs! Bonkers.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

45 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Most sexual excitement that speaker has ever seen in his life at the commons!

 

Onwards to the serious stuff ...

I watched Peter Zeihan's video posted upthread, next in the queue was Gerald Celente - love this guy, I ain't seen a video from him since winter, blimey was this interview FULL ON, One of Gerald’s best interviews!

 

Daniela was visibly shaken!

 

"This time, there will be no getaway plan [for investors],"warns trends forecaster and publisher of the popular Trends Journal, Gerald Celente. The crisis that we are facing now is unprecedented and he believes, "we are in a "new world disorder." he tells our Daniela Cambone.

 

Gerald warns, "When all else fails they take you to war, and this economy has failed." He says, "Gold prices should have been skyrocketing the last three years," but financial institutions are stifling the price. "Gold prices should be $2,500 an ounce, they're rigging @nirvana the precious metals market," he concludes.

 

 

Gerald on his best behaviour. Worth watching for her face when he mentions fascism.

[Axeman123]

Biden starts the push for a pivot:

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Biden starts the push for a pivot:

WTF BRO! Clown World on steroids innit

 

[feed]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Biden starts the push for a pivot:

89 days and counting 

 

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

WTF BRO! Clown World on steroids innit

 

Clown World believers need a clownworld avatar ..you know what to do ..

[Axeman123]

Just for context on inflation topping: