Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[geordie_lurch]

Brilliant part 1 of 2 videos via Adam at Wealthion describing everything @DurhamBorn and this thread has been aware of and positioned for for years but great for those looking to get up to speed or reassure themselves where we are heading.

 

[DoINeedOne]

Sold Admiral yesterday thinking about how everyone might panic today

Yes im a cunt bought back my shares at a slight loss 

 

Anyway nice Divi coming

Dividend

The Board has declared an interim dividend of 60.0 pence per share, made up of a normal dividend of 44.2 pence and a special dividend of 15.8 pence per share. The payment represents 90% of earnings per share for the first half. 

The Board has also declared a further special dividend of 45.0 pence per share reflecting the final payment of the phased return to shareholders of the proceeds from the sale of the Penguin Portals comparison businesses. This payment, along with the previous two payments of 46.0 pence per share,  brings the total amount returned to shareholders to just over £400 million. 

The total interim dividend, including the further special dividend is 105.0 pence per share, made of a normal dividend of 44.2 pence per share and a special dividend of 60.8 pence per share. 

Payment will be on 30 September 2022. The ex-dividend date is 1 September 2022 and the record date is 2 September 2022. 

 

[Harley]

42 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Sold Admiral yesterday thinking about how everyone might panic today

Yes im a cunt bought back my shares at a slight loss 

 

Anyway nice Divi coming

Dividend

The Board has declared an interim dividend of 60.0 pence per share, made up of a normal dividend of 44.2 pence and a special dividend of 15.8 pence per share. The payment represents 90% of earnings per share for the first half. 

The Board has also declared a further special dividend of 45.0 pence per share reflecting the final payment of the phased return to shareholders of the proceeds from the sale of the Penguin Portals comparison businesses. This payment, along with the previous two payments of 46.0 pence per share,  brings the total amount returned to shareholders to just over £400 million. 

The total interim dividend, including the further special dividend is 105.0 pence per share, made of a normal dividend of 44.2 pence per share and a special dividend of 60.8 pence per share. 

Payment will be on 30 September 2022. The ex-dividend date is 1 September 2022 and the record date is 2 September 2022. 

 

"Panic"?

[DoINeedOne]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

"Panic"?

They said in their last results thats profits would be less, because during the pandemic claims dropped alot so they had less to payout if i remember correctly

 

 

Now we have more claims and inflationary costs of repairs etc... thought people would of panicked more

 

No big deal, just me trying to be clever 

 

 

"Everyday is a education"

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

They said in their last results thats profits would be less because during the pandemic claims dropped alot so they had less to payout if i remember correctly, now we have more claims and inflationary costs of repairs etc... thought people would of panicked more

 

No big deal, just me trying to be clever 

 

 

"Everyday is a education"

Cheers.  Thank heavens as I already have something to panic about today!  I sold down a while back but kept a ladder.  I was waiting for a double confirmation of the uptrend given the past run down but that may have cost.  IMO the weekly has been on the up for a few weeks but the monthly not 100% confirming atm.

[M S E Refugee]

Energy costs pushing Europeans into food poverty – Bloomberg https://www.rt.com/business/560571-europe-energy-costs-food-poverty/

I wonder when the Sheep are going to work out that the sanctions weren't a good idea.

[stoobs]

Interesting reading others talking about peak earnings when younger.

My peak earnings were around 2001-2002 in my early-thirties. No responsibilities, flexible, willing (and fit enough) to put up with stupid amounts of travel and hassle.

I'd always assumed I was a complete outlier as the narrative when I was growing up had been steady growth of earnings from starting work until retirement.

However, that old narrative is from an age of jobs-for-life and promotion throughout your career.

I have the same job title today as I had in 1994, but have changed employers a dozen times. I don't want to manage, team lead or veer off into other roles. I enjoy what I do and see no need to change that.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9 hours ago, mcdongle said:

Interesting talk with Arthur Laffer

 

 

 

It's no use having 10s like her interviewing people on economics.

 

I finish the video and I can't remember a fucking word anyone's said.

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It's no use having 10s like her interviewing people on economics.

 

I finish the video and I can't remember a fucking word anyone's said.

There was an Arthur?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Think this was shared last week but in case anyone missed it it's one of the best I've seen.

 

Gromen really gets deep into how we got here, what it means and where were going he also points out in detail how bad this is and why there is no precedent from the 70s or the 40s.

 

Really is superb.

 

On another subject: I'm sure it's nothing.............

[ThoughtCriminal]

Does anyone in the hive mind have ideas of the best way to short Germany?

 

Call me Contrarian T, but I'm strongly starting to suspect they're the most fucked out of everyone.

[CannonFodder]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Does anyone in the hive mind have ideas of the best way to short Germany?

 

Call me Contrarian T, but I'm strongly starting to suspect they're the most fucked out of everyone.

The smaller european countries will be more fucked.

Germany can get in trouble with energy etc 

But Germany is paying for rest of Europe and can simply stop doing so

It nets off to an extent

I dont buy Peter Zeihan's view of demographics - sure its not great having an older population and maybe their population might reduce from 83 mil to 75 million but 75 million is still a powerhouse.

It will be hard for average german but germany be fine.

Euro may not survive but I think that now in Germany's interest.

[Starsend]

17 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Does anyone in the hive mind have ideas of the best way to short Germany?

 

Call me Contrarian T, but I'm strongly starting to suspect they're the most fucked out of everyone.

I've got a big ass short on the DAX using Wisdom Tree's 3x Daily Short 3DES. I'd have preferred an unleveraged one but I don't think they did one.

[ThoughtCriminal]

28 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

The smaller european countries will be more fucked.

Germany can get in trouble with energy etc 

But Germany is paying for rest of Europe and can simply stop doing so

It nets off to an extent

I dont buy Peter Zeihan's view of demographics - sure its not great having an older population and maybe their population might reduce from 83 mil to 75 million but 75 million is still a powerhouse.

It will be hard for average german but germany be fine.

Euro may not survive but I think that now in Germany's interest.

Problem is their entire industrial policy assumes plentiful cheap energy.

 

That's about to be shown up as the fallacy it is.

 

I disagree, I think Germany is an absolute disaster in the making.

[Don Coglione]

35 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I've got a big ass short on the DAX using Wisdom Tree's 3x Daily Short 3DES. I'd have preferred an unleveraged one but I don't think they did one.

Must.

Resist...

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Problem is their entire industrial policy assumes plentiful cheap energy.

 

That's about to be shown up as the fallacy it is.

 

I disagree, I think Germany is an absolute disaster in the making.

Oh I dont disagree that industrial-wise it may be difficult but as they support everyone else and that german industry pays for say latvian or italian debt- not sure Germany will be the largest bag holder here.

If they can run it at 50% and that pays for germany and the other non running 50% had paid for rest of europe well rest of europe will miss out.

Food prices go up for germans - germans stay at home and dont holiday to sunnier rest of europe tourist industry.

[geordie_lurch]

It's not looking good for Germany IMHO and they seem to be the bag holders for the whole of the EU

 

[HousePriceMania]

Another day, another reason why Sunak needs to be told to **** off.
 

"and keep interest rates low to unite the country"
 

 

[Plan-b]

51 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Another day, another reason why Sunak needs to be told to **** off.
 

"and keep interest rates low to unite the country"
 

 

Yeah right, the old school economists say that the only way to properly tackle inflation is to have interest rates higher than inflation to make money scarce then make goods plentiful.

[Froggy2000]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

I've got a big ass short on the DAX using Wisdom Tree's 3x Daily Short 3DES. I'd have preferred an unleveraged one but I don't think they did one.

Watch out for time decay on that. Not advice etc!!!

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yeah right, the old school economists say that the only way to properly tackle inflation is to have interest rates higher than inflation.

That would tackle the rich mens house price inflation....the rich men sound like they have no intention of tackling that "good (for them)" type inflation.

[Starsend]

5 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

Watch out for time decay on that. Not advice etc!!!

I've used qqqs in the past successfully. I've found these products are ok for medium term use, few months, but prob not years unless you're expecting huge falls

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

The smaller european countries will be more fucked.

Germany can get in trouble with energy etc 

But Germany is paying for rest of Europe and can simply stop doing so

It nets off to an extent

I dont buy Peter Zeihan's view of demographics - sure its not great having an older population and maybe their population might reduce from 83 mil to 75 million but 75 million is still a powerhouse.

It will be hard for average german but germany be fine.

Euro may not survive but I think that now in Germany's interest.

An interesting set of questions

While Germany could just stop sending electronic "paper" to the PIGS etc, surely they could stop sending food? Who would be worse off in that scenario? While Germany could leave the EU, if it could bear chrystalising the total loss of TARGET2 ballances, how much of their success has been down to an artificialy cheap currency? Probably for the best long term, but a tough sell with short-term pain for a long-term lower standard of living 

How homogenous is the german population? Lots of Merkel's millions too within the rest of the EU could swamp the country if they had warning of the borders closing. An EU breakup could be the trigger for migrant dumping on a mass scale IMO.

[Starsend]

26 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Another day, another reason why Sunak needs to be told to **** off.
 

"and keep interest rates low to unite the country"
 

 

Raab is basically saying we need to get it back to how it was. What a dimlow, hasn't he noticed things have changed just a little and are never going back. Fucking monkey.

[Starsend]

Sold the last of my SSE this morning. Too many unknowns for my liking going forward if millions of people can't pay their bills next year. Up about 35% inc. divis over two and a bit years so prob kept up with inflation at least.

Still holding National Grid. Not decided on what do with them yet. Anybody else holding?