Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Apologies, I am talking about taking positions in the short term but for long term holds. So by short term I mean week to week reviewing and waiting for dips in prices of shares I already know I want (the usual suspects eg BP, Rio, BAT, PMs plus 20 others). Once bought I don't 'intend' to sell. 

So not trading per se....rather trying to accumulate but at the same time trying to get in during dips and despite my original intention then maybe sell on a mini rally, to try buy back in cheaper and bring my overall cost of purchase down. 

However I am fairly bad at it...sold HL, Fres and Unilever only to watch them go up another 10%. I know I will be able to get back in on these (or at least other stocks we like) because eventually the BK should let me do so.  Just trying to get slightly ahead...whilst desperately trying to avoid holding when BK comes.

So I am clear longer term but quite nervous short term

 

It has taken me a while to get my trading head together after many years of reading this thread. I now rarely buy or sell, unless a share falls into my own "buy price". Take tobaccos for example, I bought IMB during the early days of the thread and was down 40% at one point, lesson learnt and now have a price that I will buy at, for BATS that's around mid £20 and I am happy to wait for those prices again at some point. 

Anything I buy in my SIPP is a long term hold, but use my ISA as trading money, keeping it emotionally separate like that works for me.

2020 was a once in a lifetime opportunity IMHO, I don't think I will ever sell my oillies/ tobacco that I picked up during that period. Don't make sense to me to try to trade them off on the hope of a lower price, you just end up with less divis by doing that.

I have come to the decision since starting posting here, that I am quite happy now with my divi income, and that's the most important thing to me going forward.

Going back to the start of this thread on TOS I had a figure that I wished my SIPP would be by the time I was 55. I am already at that figure 2 years early, just for that I am glad I've spent so many hours reading here, without adding much content of any worth.

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, janch said:

GSK have plunged today:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/sanofi-and-gsk-lead-30-billion-rout-as-zantac-worries-mount?sref=lbQAzuXj

Sorry @DurhamBorn as it was you who used to make it IIRC.  But of  course it was someone elses job to make sure it was safe!

I was the lead technician on Zantac ,then moved to antibiotics later.Lots of people used to come out in a bad rash working with it.All drugs have risks,its just the scale of them.

[No One]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What i find upsetting the most is my skills and those like me were given zero worth for decades.Actually ever since iv had them and before.I was saying to my old boss the company would be better employing me as a macro strategist rather than a technician i could add 10,000 times the value to them.The macro got so obvious i could of taught school children and they would of spotted it.Not the cross market stuff,but the actual roadmap.The rubber band was stretched so far yet nobody was looking in the right direction.Sometimes i look at my old jotters with my roadmap and see the dates back then plotting to now and its incredible how close it is on inflation.

The pain is going to be incredible,but the worry for us on here is the country might go to the hard left.The left caused most of this of course,yet people will demand more actions to make things worse.Watching Sunak makes me feel sick.His answer is more bennies but fuck everyone else.That road just ensures everyone apart from him his wife and his mates end up on bennies in the end.The problem so far is the government trying to shield the parts of the population that are causing the problems (not their faults,the faults lie with polos) but its not sustainable.The New Labour government caused most of out problems,then for some reason the Tories didnt bother fixing them,they just carried them on.

 

If you are up for it why not make a seminar or course? I'd be happy to learn Macro

If not could you maybe point to a good book ?

 

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

EMs will gain hugely from the falling dollar,their bonds first then equities.Key thing im trying to understand now is do i take those profits when they run (some are running already) or hold them for the cycle due to the structure and multi polar world we are going to see.? .BK is the huge risk,but so it being trapped in the wrong currency when it plunges in tandem with inflation.

I sold a position I had in TPI Composites which I had become trapped in a buy-the-dip spurr of the moment last year. I had considered it lost but thanks to Joe and the dems with their green energy stimmies, it came back up to where I had bought it and existed the position cleanly. 

I opened a position in Black rock Latin American, which I do out of my own free will and no worries @DurhamBorn I know not financial advise.

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Things like Harmony Gold give you leverage to the leverage.EM and gold,and uranium etc.

I was also thinking of which stocks to buy for long term hold for Nuclear energy as that is the only long term viable energy supply when carbos dry up.

[A tremendous # on the lung]

42 minutes ago, janch said:

I've been doing this and for energy bills.  It's much simpler and also means they don't get my money in advance (although I do miss out on any fixes etc).  Many people use a lot of water with daily showers/baths etc.  I've been thinking we should think back to how things used to be so as to get a handle on what could be coming.  Eg no-one even had a shower unless a hand-held one over the bath.  Lots ddidn't even have a bath.  Water use was much less.  This was comparatively recent eg 70s/80s.  When did it become a thing to have a daily shower yet that is something everyone takes for granted and many have never known anything different.

Similarly we never had shops opening on Sundays or staying open late.  Showing my age I an even remember early closing on Wednesdays when shops closed on Wed afternoons.  It would reduce staffing costs substantially to return to more limited opening hours.  I'm sure there are many other examples eg returning to open coal fires and calor gas heaters etc.

Yes I remember each member of the family having dedicated "bath nights" 

[Democorruptcy]

50 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Bit of a drop for PAAS today when the other miners are motoring. Q2 results less than expected.

 

Info:

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2022-08-10/pan-american-silver-reports-q2-2022-results-l6o6tk9e

[Option5]

1 minute ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Yes I remember each member of the family having dedicated "bath nights" 

I lived with my gran. Galvanised tub in front of the fire on a Friday.

Auntie and Gran went first, then my dad and two uncles.

I was bathed in the kitchen sink.

Then the council installed back boiler and a bathroom and almost everything changed.

Except me in the kitchen sink 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was the lead technician on Zantac ,then moved to antibiotics later.Lots of people used to come out in a bad rash working with it.All drugs have risks,its just the scale of them.

Small amounts of contamination then. Ever work on opiates? 

[DoINeedOne]

59 minutes ago, janch said:

I've been doing this and for energy bills.  It's much simpler and also means they don't get my money in advance (although I do miss out on any fixes etc).  Many people use a lot of water with daily showers/baths etc.  I've been thinking we should think back to how things used to be so as to get a handle on what could be coming.  Eg no-one even had a shower unless a hand-held one over the bath.  Lots ddidn't even have a bath.  Water use was much less.  This was comparatively recent eg 70s/80s.  When did it become a thing to have a daily shower yet that is something everyone takes for granted and many have never known anything different.

Similarly we never had shops opening on Sundays or staying open late.  Showing my age I an even remember early closing on Wednesdays when shops closed on Wed afternoons.  It would reduce staffing costs substantially to return to more limited opening hours.  I'm sure there are many other examples eg returning to open coal fires and calor gas heaters etc.

As a kid I used to have to get in after my brothers i was the youngest sometimes same water I swear they pissed in in just because it was funny

Can't even imagine suggesting that to some of the teenagers in the family now

[Democorruptcy]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was the lead technician on Zantac ,then moved to antibiotics later.Lots of people used to come out in a bad rash working with it.All drugs have risks,its just the scale of them.

No worries, if it has caused a problem one of the other big pharma's will come up with a cure, one sows and the other reaps. I see GSK have done OK recently with their shingles vaccine, it's been reported as a side effect of the covid jabs. Another assist!

[Calcutta]

Boil a pan of water over a small fire in the garden. 

Mix the pan with half a bucket of cold water. 

Take it upstairs to the bath, stand in the bath and use a jug to pour the contents of the bucket over your head. Couple of jugs to get you wet, then apply the soap, then use the rest to rinse it off. 

Simple. Free. As clean as any shower. Absolutely no excuse for being a soapdodger. 

[JimmyTheBruce]

28 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It has taken me a while to get my trading head together after many years of reading this thread. I now rarely buy or sell, unless a share falls into my own "buy price". Take tobaccos for example, I bought IMB during the early days of the thread and was down 40% at one point, lesson learnt and now have a price that I will buy at, for BATS that's around mid £20 and I am happy to wait for those prices again at some point. 

Anything I buy in my SIPP is a long term hold, but use my ISA as trading money, keeping it emotionally separate like that works for me.

2020 was a once in a lifetime opportunity IMHO, I don't think I will ever sell my oillies/ tobacco that I picked up during that period. Don't make sense to me to try to trade them off on the hope of a lower price, you just end up with less divis by doing that.

I have come to the decision since starting posting here, that I am quite happy now with my divi income, and that's the most important thing to me going forward.

Going back to the start of this thread on TOS I had a figure that I wished my SIPP would be by the time I was 55. I am already at that figure 2 years early, just for that I am glad I've spent so many hours reading here, without adding much content of any worth.

Slightly tangential to the original long/short term debate, but the key factor for me in deciding between SIPP and ISA is currency/location.

Most of my FTSE shares are in my ISA, but I try, as much as possible, to put the foreign stuff in my SIPP.  In addition to the tax advantages on the dividends, they also get paid (and remain in) the foreign currency.  So I avoid fx fees on the divs, and also build up a pot of forex which I can use to avoid fx fees on future foreign purchases.

[Option5]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was the lead technician on Zantac ,then moved to antibiotics later.Lots of people used to come out in a bad rash working with it.All drugs have risks,its just the scale of them.

I advise people who say the jab must be safe to Google withdrawn prescription drugs or read this:

https://ethics.harvard.edu/blog/new-prescription-drugs-major-health-risk-few-offsetting-advantages

 

[Option5]

6 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Boil a pan of water over a small fire in the garden. 

Mix the pan with half a bucket of cold water. 

Take it upstairs to the bath, stand in the bath and use a jug to pour the contents of the bucket over your head. Couple of jugs to get you wet, then apply the soap, then use the rest to rinse it off. 

Simple. Free. As clean as any shower. Absolutely no excuse for being a soapdodger. 

That's how it was when I was working in parts of Tanzania.

[DurhamBorn]

33 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

No worries, if it has caused a problem one of the other big pharma's will come up with a cure, one sows and the other reaps. I see GSK have done OK recently with their shingles vaccine, it's been reported as a side effect of the covid jabs. Another assist!

When i first started i asked them what each drug "cured".The managers burst out laughing,they said they binned any drugs that cured anything.They looked for drugs that "managed" conditions and hopefully ones you take forever.I remember Ventolin.The machines just churned the stuff out,big building,but just one little room making it.The lads had a dummy dressed as an operator they used to sit in the chair next to the machine so it looked like they were watching it,but they were in the tea bar room  .Bosses werent allowed in the area without an op and just had a little port hole window they could look through.The dummy was called Arthur Daley.One of the lads wrote his name on the overtime sheet once and the gaffer said who is this Arthur Daley ,is he from another section?

[leonardratso]

do you still get a bath in the sink?

[Castlevania]

I overslept and so only had time for a Mexican shower this morning. Not ideal in this heat, but is very quick.

[Bilbo]

5 hours ago, marceau said:

The key thing to watch is tax receipts, once they fall below inflation on an annualised basis a big red light will go on, 2 years below and alarms go off. The 12 months after that will see capital controls.

How many can remember when you could only take £30.00 when you went abroad!

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I overslept and so only had time for a Mexican shower this morning. Not ideal in this heat, but is very quick.

had to look that up, sounds better than  a golden shower anyway.

[JMD]

Lex Fridman interview with an ex-CIA intelligence guy about the Ukraine war. Worth listening from 12-50mins for the Ukraine discussion, for a very frank discussion about Ukraine war, and the politics of war in general.

I have watched many Fridman podcasts because I like the long form interview format. But I had to look this interview up after hearing a British radio host describe the CIA guy as 'cold and heartless with souless eyes'!!! Total crap of course - but the radio host was obviously triggered by the information he was hearing and simply didn't want to believe any of it. To think our media is so utterly dismissive of new information or even 'alternate facts' is alarming... not that we weren't already fully aware of MSM bias and moral cowardice.                                                                                   

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T3FC7qIAGZk

 

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Boil a pan of water over a small fire in the garden. 

Mix the pan with half a bucket of cold water. 

Take it upstairs to the bath, stand in the bath and use a jug to pour the contents of the bucket over your head. Couple of jugs to get you wet, then apply the soap, then use the rest to rinse it off. 

Simple. Free. As clean as any shower. Absolutely no excuse for being a soapdodger. 

I was thinking about getting one or two of those solar camping showers, filling them with water heated on the wood stove, and carrying them upstairs. I think I'll settle for a bowl in the bath if it comes to that though -- used to wash like that as a child. Wednesday and Sunday were bath nights, other nights was just a bowl wash. You wanted to make sure than any mucking out of the pigsty etc. was done on a Wed or Sun 

[DurhamBorn]

I have been waiting to get back into Evonik and im tempted to start tomorrow.Very interesting on BP as well looking after them and supplying LPG.Love the bit about the coal plant.Amazing things cycles arent they,we were thought nuts 2 years ago.Not now.

"The most significant measure is being implemented at Evonik's largest German site in Marl. In the new gas-fired power plant, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will be used instead of natural gas to generate energy. This does not only secure the energy supply and thus continuation of production in Marl. The natural gas volumes released are available to replenish Germany’s natural gas storage facilities. Evonik is being supported in this by bp. The energy company is making an important contribution to the supply of LPG at the Marl site.

The coal-fired power plant in Marl is also making a contribution to securing energy supply. Evonik had originally planned to shut down this power plant this year. Following the change in the legal framework, Evonik will now recruit the necessary personnel, invest in technical maintenance, and secure coal supplies to ensure continued operation beyond this year.

"By substituting natural gas with LPG and continuing to operate the coal-fired power plant, we can completely dispense with natural gas for energy supply at our largest German site in Marl - without any significant curtailments in production," says Christian Kullmann, chairman of Evonik’s executive board. "The energy supply at our European sites is thus largely secured, even in the event of a Russian gas stop."

[M S E Refugee]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I have been waiting to get back into Evonik and im tempted to start tomorrow.Very interesting on BP as well looking after them and supplying LPG.Love the bit about the coal plant.Amazing things cycles arent they,we were thought nuts 2 years ago.Not now.

"The most significant measure is being implemented at Evonik's largest German site in Marl. In the new gas-fired power plant, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will be used instead of natural gas to generate energy. This does not only secure the energy supply and thus continuation of production in Marl. The natural gas volumes released are available to replenish Germany’s natural gas storage facilities. Evonik is being supported in this by bp. The energy company is making an important contribution to the supply of LPG at the Marl site.

The coal-fired power plant in Marl is also making a contribution to securing energy supply. Evonik had originally planned to shut down this power plant this year. Following the change in the legal framework, Evonik will now recruit the necessary personnel, invest in technical maintenance, and secure coal supplies to ensure continued operation beyond this year.

"By substituting natural gas with LPG and continuing to operate the coal-fired power plant, we can completely dispense with natural gas for energy supply at our largest German site in Marl - without any significant curtailments in production," says Christian Kullmann, chairman of Evonik’s executive board. "The energy supply at our European sites is thus largely secured, even in the event of a Russian gas stop."

I've started buying these in my Freetrade ISA.

https://navigatorgas.com/

[Shamone]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

When i first started i asked them what each drug "cured".The managers burst out laughing,they said they binned any drugs that cured anything.They looked for drugs that "managed" conditions and hopefully ones you take forever.I remember Ventolin.The machines just churned the stuff out,big building,but just one little room making it.The lads had a dummy dressed as an operator they used to sit in the chair next to the machine so it looked like they were watching it,but they were in the tea bar room  .Bosses werent allowed in the area without an op and just had a little port hole window they could look through.The dummy was called Arthur Daley.One of the lads wrote his name on the overtime sheet once and the gaffer said who is this Arthur Daley ,is he from another section?

Are you sure this wasn’t public sector?

[CannonFodder]

Had a work trip today.

Train this morning seriously delayed

City I went to full of homeless

Train back seriously delayed.

We rapidly becoming  a third world country.

[Spiney Norman]

27 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

City I went to full of homeless

Let me guess, Birmingham?

Walking through Birmingham early in the morning is a real eye opener, like Hooverville it is.