Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Ex council 50s are incredibly well built, i would happily buy one. A lot of 30s places can be ropey, built with whatever was available, but survivor bias should help.

Few of my friends have 50s council houses, and they need an absolute fortune spent on them where they havent been maintained beyond double glazing and a new boiler.

Its the size of gardens that seems to be the attraction.

These are the sort of houses that are selling for 300k.

[sancho panza]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

There's a great follow on Twitter called "New Build Hate", Christ it's horrendous. A consequence of wages not going up in 20 years I think. When I was going on the sites there were trades and proper 4 year apprenticeships. Now, not so much. Its more prefab, less skill, more labourer (and I was a labourer) less spark/chippie/brickie. I couldn't understand why I could hear my neighbors through the wall in my first UK rental, till I found out about 'low density blocks'. Wtf? Disinflation, anyone? I bought an old house, Edwardian. The bricks are clean and true as a whistle, still don't need re pointing. It needs plenty of maintenance mind you, but you're working with a solid core, just like a good engine.  Look at this crap:

Ugh. They look like slips (whoever came up with such a thing?). And yes these houses will fall in price because they are essentially cardboard. 

there incredibel piccies.'ll find him.Must say it's handy having my pal if I ever buy,but then I never buy a car without my mechanic looking at it and running it.there's nothing obvious thsoe ears and eyes don't pick up hafter 25 years in the game.

[DurhamBorn]

This image from the twitter account,

 

[Gin]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This image from the twitter account,

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So much pain to come for those poor idiots, there is your HPC. I can just see the rubble under that grass. Slums of the near future.

Most old semis,had hedges,ponds,lawns,trees,bushes etc,packed with wildlife.Children would see hedgehogs,bats,the birds,nest,eggs,chicks,frogs etc etc.Now they get the above.Zero wildlife.Slums indeed.My first house was just a two up two down terrace with a back yard and a door onto the pavement,but the difference was it cost 1.5x my single wages and could be repaired for low expense when needed.Surely those new builds are triple their real worth.Massive underwater mortgages almost certain.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

My view is those 30s semis are now falling apart, as are the 50s ones.

Aesthetically new builds look appalling, have no gardens and are build on tp of each other .... but they've a long time of living in them without needing to spend a fortune on them.

My house was built in 1913.  The back end was built in 1970ish.

The front end is in perfect nick.  Has been painted, of course, to protect against the weather, but it's rock solid and after almost 110 years a few minor cracks, even though we had an earthquake here recently!  As it was designed before aircon, it keeps the heat out and the warmth in naturally.  Light switches are original.

The back end is shit.  when we rippe out the bathroom, half the timber had to be replaced.  shitty modern wood, not hardwood.  The roof leaked due to the 'new' gutters allowing pools which rotted through.  The skylight had a leak due to warping of the frame.  That end of the house is freezing in the winter, boiling in the summer.  All the electrics are shit.

In short, I'd rather live in old than new any day.

[jamtomorrow]

11 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its probably right. I had a quote for 2.5 meter concertina bifold extension doors recently, £24,000 fitted, I had to do the building prep work.

What, £24K for just the f***ing doors????!

[CVG]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This image from the twitter account,

 

That's sick. I've just bought a 50's council house in the middle of town with a garden around 75% of that total, for around 200K. Ok, needs another 50K spent on it (inside).

Funnily enough, I had a landscaper come round and quote me 30K to 'do' the garden. Perhaps it is bigger than I thought!

[JimmyTheBruce]

 

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Some of the NHS management are begging for more lockdowns on the basis that the last three didn't turn a 2 million patient waiting list into a 5.7 million waiting list.

QUite why our govt listens to these people when they've gotten everything else so wrong I don't know but they do.

It's noticeable that all the people interviewed on the TV are from NHS Providers who, judging by their site, appear to be a lobbying organisation.  Vested interests everywhere.....

[Harley]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

There's a great follow on Twitter called "New Build Hate", Christ it's horrendous. A consequence of wages not going up in 20 years I think. When I was going on the sites there were trades and proper 4 year apprenticeships. Now, not so much. Its more prefab, less skill, more labourer (and I was a labourer) less spark/chippie/brickie. I couldn't understand why I could hear my neighbors through the wall in my first UK rental, till I found out about 'low density blocks'. Wtf? Disinflation, anyone? I bought an old house, Edwardian. The bricks are clean and true as a whistle, still don't need re pointing. It needs plenty of maintenance mind you, but you're working with a solid core, just like a good engine.  Look at this crap:

Ugh. They look like slips (whoever came up with such a thing?). And yes these houses will fall in price because they are essentially cardboard. 

I do stone, not brick, so have no idea what's going on there.  Anyone know?  Maybe they'll end up rendering it like stone was meant to be (a new fad not to). 

PS:  One day Grasshopper.  There's a small group of elite DOSBODers who've done pointing.  It's the pinnacle of your DOSBODS training!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

That's sick. I've just bought a 50's council house in the middle of town with a garden around 75% of that total, for around 200K. Ok, needs another 50K spent on it (inside).

Funnily enough, I had a landscaper come round and quote me 30K to 'do' the garden. Perhaps it is bigger than I thought!

Even about five years ago a couple of (recommended!) chancers quoted me £10,000 (net of my PAYE/NI!) for a wrap around patio. That was labour only and I bet they would have used my supplied mortar to make up the levels than spend too much time doing it right.  Didn't even really need a new sub-base.  Did it myself, to a high standard and I was able to improve the design as I went.  Add the PAYE/NI I would have paid to get the money, getting on for a large chunk of a year's frugal salary in a few weeks!   Add the other jobs and a very nice salary indeed!  I bought a power barrow with some of the savings so I could do more!

[AlfredTheLittle]

Oil has pretty much hit the level @DurhamBorn predicted a little while back. I seem to remember the prediction was 85 then fall to 55 before a big move up.

What's the thinking from here, still due a big pull back or do you think things have changed because of the spiralling gas price? 

[DurhamBorn]

42 minutes ago, Harley said:

I do stone, not brick, so have no idea what's going on there.  Anyone know?  Maybe they'll end up rendering it like stone was meant to be (a new fad not to). 

PS:  One day Grasshopper.  There's a small group of elite DOSBODers who've done pointing.  It's the pinnacle of your DOSBODS training!

I had a lost cause garden wall,but decided to give it a go and although not perfect,it looks very decent re-pointed the whole lot,and will outlast me.It will be a two year event now where my big ladders come out and i touch up any bits on my gable end.Iv noticed the bits that have slight holes get bigger with wasps and insects seeming to burrow behind.Big pair of quality ladders are crucial for any frugal homeowner.

[HousePriceMania]

 

"It's not a wealth tax, but a tax on unrealized capital gains of exceptionally wealthy individuals."

[Noallegiance]

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's why I said "good quality", not some dump that actually has to be replaced. Prices are exactly as you state, but shelter is not discretionary. And if it now costs 250k rather than 200k to build a house, the builder isn't going to swallow it. We'll see. But I've heard enough about how house prices behaved in the 70s inflation to be fairly high conviction on this. Why would a physical object made of inflating commodities go down in price in the commodity inflating cycle that's coming? The only thing that can go down is crap quality as you describe, overpriced land houses sit on, and probably apartments in stupid locations.

Do we not have to factor in asset-propping QE pumps being turned off and the potential for personal borrowing to slump?

As I am keen on saying - if one cannot borrow £500k, nobody can ask for £500k.

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Those 25 years have seen prices rise in direct proportion to servicing cost falling.

I wouldnt say that true as interest rates from 1998 to 2008 were similar and prices trebled in that time.

Can agree that since 2008 ZIRP has been the main reason they've continued rising, well that and along with the endless scams and schemes by the Tory party to make housing unaffordable.

But when extensions are costing £60,000 sooner or later builders will run out of people able to pay such sums, at which point job losses happen then the price of materials collapses.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

That's sick. I've just bought a 50's council house in the middle of town with a garden around 75% of that total, for around 200K. Ok, needs another 50K spent on it (inside).

Funnily enough, I had a landscaper come round and quote me 30K to 'do' the garden. Perhaps it is bigger than I thought!

Thats what NIMBYs and Tories want people to live like. i've been to a few new build sites in the south and even my kid says how crap they are.

[jamtomorrow]

22 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

"It's not a wealth tax, but a tax on unrealized capital gains of exceptionally wealthy individuals."

I wonder how they will define "exceptional" in "exceptionally wealthy".

Unrelated: I really fancy me a boating accident. But must remember to take up boating at some point (before the accident, ideally)

[Boon]

To me it just sounds like a way to get at the crypto unrealised profits - they aren't gonna give a shit if you are poor outside of it.

Don't they already have land taxes there? So there wouldn't be an announcement for that.

Given how much those politicians love trading it is hard to see unrealised profits on stocks becoming a thing as many of them would then have large bills.

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I wonder how they will define "exceptional" in "exceptionally wealthy".

id love them to take 99% off Gates and the gang. These fuckers are now monopolists not capitalists.

At one time many extremely wealthy people put their wealth back into the community (to build housing etc), nowadays they just put bribes into global govts to rig the game against their local community.

[Starsend]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

Id say whatever ive lost on my house money savings i've made up for it in my SIPP.

Plan now is wait 6 months see if we get a BK, if not then its 120k down on a 3 bed house in York akin to this, with a 120k mortgage fixed for 10 years. (then to rent it out, it will be my 1 and only property)

Then 130K or a bit more to take a riskier punt in the stock markets, on whatever looks cheap in May 2022.

Seems the financial prosperity is want is reliant on the markets accepting the FED won't be printing anymore at some point in 2022, which is seemingly what the BK is based on.

If id been a little quicker i'd sooner have bought this is Salisbury. Kind of shows there is no difference between similar places in the North and South.

That's very, very cheap for Salisbury. I would guess it needed a lot of money spent on it.

[Shamone]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

There's a great follow on Twitter called "New Build Hate", Christ it's horrendous. A consequence of wages not going up in 20 years I think. When I was going on the sites there were trades and proper 4 year apprenticeships. Now, not so much. Its more prefab, less skill, more labourer (and I was a labourer) less spark/chippie/brickie. I couldn't understand why I could hear my neighbors through the wall in my first UK rental, till I found out about 'low density blocks'. Wtf? Disinflation, anyone? I bought an old house, Edwardian. The bricks are clean and true as a whistle, still don't need re pointing. It needs plenty of maintenance mind you, but you're working with a solid core, just like a good engine.  Look at this crap:

Ugh. They look like slips (whoever came up with such a thing?). And yes these houses will fall in price because they are essentially cardboard. 

We looked at a few. Apart from the whole uncapped ongoing management charges that I can’t get an answer about, something feels off.  Looking at 70s 80s now. Maybe my adventures need a new thread…

[Hancock]

19 minutes ago, Starsend said:

That's very, very cheap for Salisbury. I would guess it needed a lot of money spent on it.

There are a few that have been up for sale ... crazy when £300,000 which is about 10 times local wage is deemed to be very cheap!

But Salisbury isnt that much more expensive than York. Maybe thats what Boris meant by levelling up.

[Shamone]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Exactly that, it's been that way for a long time too. And thing is the difference between agricultural land at 10k an acre, and land zoned for residential development, which can be 50x down here in the SE. And the decision is with the council. It's criminal.

https://www.mardenherefordshire-pc.gov.uk/2020/03/11/updated-position-statement-about-phosphate-issue-in-river-lugg-catchment-area/

It’s worse than that around here. Moratorium on all building in huge swathes of the county. Private building projects thwarted because of farmers putting thousands of tonnes of chicken shit everywhere so this cuntry can have its vile factory £2 chicken.

[HousePriceMania]

here's a question for everyone/

If you wanted to transfer £50K into another currency, which currency would you pick and what mechanism would you use transfer it ?

I'm thinking Norwegian ( mainly due to their IR rises that are in the pipeline ) and Swiss.

Could buy shares in companies or just get a forex account.

Bad shit is coming down the pipeline me thinks and I'd like to have some cash that's not dependent on the £.