Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 hours ago, Libspero said:

So this actually seems like quite a clever idea now.   Essentially the energy companies argue that a windfall tax will stop them being able to invest in new infrastructure,  so the government are pressing their toes to the fire and keeping them honest.   They are basically saying,  if you really do invest in UK infrastructure (and quickly) you will barely pay a penny in tax.   On the other hand,  if you don’t we’re going to properly gouge you.

I don’t agree with windfall taxes as a principle..   but this one seems a bit more nuanced than just a cash grab.  

Government tells them not to invest, fossil fuels are dead, you're all evil, Wind us the future.

 

Shortage of oil and gas happens: HEY, HERES OUR SUPER DUPER NEW SCHEME.

 

There is absolutely NOTHING clever about this specifically or them in general.

[Libspero]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Government tells them not to invest, fossil fuels are dead, you're all evil, Wind us the future.

 

Shortage of oil and gas happens: HEY, HERES OUR SUPER DUPER NEW SCHEME.

 

There is absolutely NOTHING clever about this specifically or them in general.

Well,  sure..  though some of the supply side and strategic shock was  unenvisaged a year ago.  
 

Rather a lot has changed IMHO.

[invalid]

23 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

And it begins. There are requests promoted in the media this morning for Sunak to go further with both more money to and baselining yesterday’s  announcements. 
 

 

 

For those of us who work to pay for all this it does rather feel like they are trolling us. Ok, we all get the £400 but for workers its going to be a close to zero sum game as we will have to pay for it one way or another.

These people are just never happy and always want more.

Some great stereotypes in the examples below from todays online DM.

57 year old woman claiming sick for depression and anxiety (not to belittle that as its a real difficulty for many). Article says she is retired - no mention of if she gets a pension. Assume if she does it not much as she gets UC.

Fat dad for a change in the next one. They essentially run a nail bar with hairdressing and massages with fancy stones. I'm afraid they are going to get hit hard over the next couple of years, especially in a town like Wisbech.

 

Then there are some others which sound like hobby jobs - a magician, a lifestyle expert, a coffee expert (really?), a personal trainer. A couple seemed to have real jobs.

 

Carole Anne Wilson, 57, who lives in Wrexham, Wales, is retired with a series of illnesses and lives alone on Universal Credit She said: 'There's just not enough being done ... there's nowhere for me to turn 'In January (2022) after all my bills I had something like £200 a month left to get food and fuel or whatever,' she said.

'Now I've got £12.36 left and I don't get my money until June 18.

'My anxiety has gone through the roof. I just can't cope with the anxiety and the depression, it just gets worse and worse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sleepwello'nights]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

The thing i can understand from the Tories is that Osborne started to get to grips with welfare,yet they have undone his work and more.10% increases in bennies next April are insane,your talking £50 a week uplifts for some.Hugely inflationary.Yet tax allowances frozen.Its a direct attack on working people just above bennie level.

 

 

I never thought having a weak man as the Prime Minister would create so much disarray. Is there anyone in our political class who can stand up with strong moral principles and stop the decay?

 

[Axeman123]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Asda sales down 9% in the first quarter.If they arent inflation adjusted thats a huge fall.Maybe thats why they are demanding more handouts from the government.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/26/sunaks-15bn-cost-of-living-package-not-enough-asda-boss-stuart-rose

I was wondering if the timing of this was related to high frequency economic data (ie the arse falling out of the economy).

There are certainly enough anecdotals circulating of phones having stopped ringing etc.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I was wondering if the timing of this was related to high frequency economic data (ie the arse falling out of the economy).

There are certainly enough anecdotals circulating of phones having stopped ringing etc.

Some CEOs have been publicly complaining. The message will have been getting to the Government directly. This is money that will be spent. No doubt there will be a big confidence effect as people think the Government will continue to look after them. They've chosen to keep the plates spinning longer but the crash will be even bigger when it comes.

[ThoughtCriminal]

27 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Well,  sure..  though some of the supply side and strategic shock was  unenvisaged a year ago.  
 

Rather a lot has changed IMHO.

It wasn't unenvisaged by me, and lots of other people.

 

Cattle prod has been on about it for years and he doesn't have their resources. 

 

We had a man from Durham and a geologist on here three years ago who predicted it. How?

 

Not by magic, but because they looked at the PUBLICLY available data.

 

You don't get to smash someone's windows and then offer to pay part of the clean up cost whilst expecting a pat on the head.

 

Having a low standard for governments is exactly what has gotten us into this mess.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I was wondering if the timing of this was related to high frequency economic data (ie the arse falling out of the economy).

There are certainly enough anecdotals circulating of phones having stopped ringing etc.

Look at Wetherspoons shares from yesterday,nice bump because them and Mcdonalds are where its going to go.

Its obvious now working people who want to earn and save have nobody to vote for.Boris seems like the main problem,he said yesterday oil companies didnt need the profits because they werent investing them just giving to shareholders so we might as well have them.Thats a Tory PM,incredible.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Which benefits are being uprated by CPI? I just want to know if housing benefit is excluded. Surely it is?

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

My one from here will be Rentokil

I was thinking you were going to say for the rats drawn to the packaging from all the takeaway food being bought with helicopter money!

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Look at Wetherspoons shares from yesterday,nice bump because them and Mcdonalds are where its going to go.

Its obvious now working people who want to earn and save have nobody to vote for.Boris seems like the main problem,he said yesterday oil companies didnt need the profits because they werent investing them just giving to shareholders so we might as well have them.Thats a Tory PM,incredible.

You will own nothing... 

 

 

Maybe it's not a crazy conspiracy theory after all. 

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Which benefits are being uprated by CPI? I just want to know if housing benefit is excluded. Surely it is?

If I was a betting man... 

[belfastchild]

10 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Just thought

These new helicopter drops are straight to bank accounts again.

Chances of it actually being spent on food and energy?

Chances of it being spent on Robinhood?

From my experience observing over the last 2 years, alcohol, weed, vaping, just eat, shit tattoos, botox from mate sharon who is a 'beautician', raiding home bargains for cheap plastic shite thats broke before you get home, shit bought off facebook.
In fact anything thats not food or energy so money will be spunked on crap as soon as it comes in and then plead poverty 2 weeks later.

[Pip321]

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Brown started that with tax credits (the start of the disaster we are now in).He gave the £11 a week to almost everyone with kids,then banged on another £55 a child for those on bennies.His reasoning was the middle would turn a blind eye to massive welfare spending if they were getting a bung.He simply took theirs back by changing the pension dividend rules.

The thing i can understand from the Tories is that Osborne started to get to grips with welfare,yet they have undone his work and more.10% increases in bennies next April are insane,your talking £50 a week uplifts for some.Hugely inflationary.Yet tax allowances frozen.Its a direct attack on working people just above bennie level.

The key thing to remember though is the BOE cant QE,so the government needs much more tax,and it will be wealth tax.

 

 

24 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I never thought having a weak man as the Prime Minister would create so much disarray. Is there anyone in our political class who can stand up with strong moral principles and stop the decay?

 

It’s not Brown, it’s not Boris, it’s not Tories and it’s not New Labour. These guys are all the same….they could swap name badges and no one would know. 

Over the past few years I have moved from the Left to the centre….but am increasingly realising I am not central but rather I just don’t support anyone in power.

Appreciate this thread saw many of these things coming but I am not as convinced TPTB are as blind as we like to think. I think the fiddle plays and they just dance….we once had politicians who tried to change and shape the world but now all politicians do is manage things and take what they can ie always an exit plan. 
If we (including myself) can’t always fathom why they do stuff eg increase welfare whilst tax productive businesses….you can be rest assured it for THEIR personal short term benefit. They won’t go hungry  

The current Tory elite who haven’t lived a real life run the plebs with an entitlement and lack of respect…I believe voters are getting what they deserve.

Those from the Labour (well…ignoring the career elites who just flipped a coin as to which party they joined) who may have dragged themselves up from a more working class background  could in theory be better. However once voted in just get some type of ‘god complex’, become entitled elites and just use power for their own benefit as well.

The possibility of taxing other corporations beyond oil and taxing wealth is a worrying signal. I am all for welfare state as a safety net but entitlement from the very wealthy and the benefit class has gone too far.

Worryingly many may believe the best use of their wealth isn’t to decide which SIPP, ISA or share to invest in….rather just spend it and let someone else pick up the tab. If the government are going to take your money one way or another…then why worry about trying to preserve it?

Think I need a coffee…🤦🏻‍♂️

 

[feed]

The problem with Boris is he's a populist.  His desire to be all things to all people.  His need for legacy and his place in history.  It wouldn’t be so bad, if he wasn’t so lazy and didn’t just move with the opinion polls.  And unfortunately for everyone, he’s completely on the wrong side of this. 

But what do they say,

Every wrong action will be tried before the correct one is taken. 
 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Benefits are going up by inflation. The inflation rate includes utilities bills. Why should the extra payment for benefits recipients last beyond April? Edit to add that the inflation rate for poor people will be higher as energy is a bigger proportion of their income. However, a lot of benefits recipients aren't poor.

Minimum wage is currently £9.50 per hour. £18,525 annually based on 37.5 hours per week. Will that be increased by the same inflation measure in April as used for benefits? If so minimum wage could be £10.45 per hour or £20,377.50.

If tax thresholds remain frozen that is a lot of extra tax to collect.

[Libspero]

29 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It wasn't unenvisaged by me, and lots of other people.

I think it depends what aspect we are talking about.

Yes,  fuel prices were obviously going to rise coming out of the pandemic..  that was predictable.

The strategic need to bolster our own production during the transition to renewables was not (at least as far as I saw..  I only started reading this thread Jan/Feb time).    I imagine it was assumed that Russia would continue to be a reliable energy partner and that prices would stabilise.   I agree fundamentals play a part,  but I think strategy and uncertainty have compounded it and are the main driver for the investment as opposed to the absolute market value of the commodity.

[Calcutta]

Classic pump and dump. They'd know the crash is coming, no harm throwing a few more bundles of printed cash on the pyre. A nice little bump up thru the summer allows the rich to exit their positions. 

Rishi wants his own little DH melt-up. 

 

[BurntBread]

8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hungary also doing windfall taxes but not stopping at energy companies:

 

As so often, there may be a bit more to this. The EU seems to be trying to implement regime change of a democratic member state, and this is Orban's attempt to fight back.

More and more the European Union shows itself as an empire, rather than a collaboration of free nations. I don't approve of Orban undermining capitalism, but I think that is inevitable during a war (in this case an economic war, waged by the EU, and only indirectly related to Russia).

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, invalid said:

 

For those of us who work to pay for all this it does rather feel like they are trolling us. Ok, we all get the £400 but for workers its going to be a close to zero sum game as we will have to pay for it one way or another.

These people are just never happy and always want more.

Some great stereotypes in the examples below from todays online DM.

57 year old woman claiming sick for depression and anxiety (not to belittle that as its a real difficulty for many). Article says she is retired - no mention of if she gets a pension. Assume if she does it not much as she gets UC.

Fat dad for a change in the next one. They essentially run a nail bar with hairdressing and massages with fancy stones. I'm afraid they are going to get hit hard over the next couple of years, especially in a town like Wisbech.

 

Then there are some others which sound like hobby jobs - a magician, a lifestyle expert, a coffee expert (really?), a personal trainer. A couple seemed to have real jobs.

 

Carole Anne Wilson, 57, who lives in Wrexham, Wales, is retired with a series of illnesses and lives alone on Universal Credit She said: 'There's just not enough being done ... there's nowhere for me to turn 'In January (2022) after all my bills I had something like £200 a month left to get food and fuel or whatever,' she said.

'Now I've got £12.36 left and I don't get my money until June 18.

'My anxiety has gone through the roof. I just can't cope with the anxiety and the depression, it just gets worse and worse.

 

 

 

I don’t wish to be rude (normally followed by a rude comment I know) but Jabba, aka fat dad,  is involved in a Beauty and Holistic Therapy centre.

Is the programme that you go in and you watch him for an hour and leave and then are told to do the EXACT opposite🤦🏻‍♂️. 

What’s happened to plumbers, stone masons, joiners, nursing, fireman, lorry drivers, engineers, bakers, doctors, farmers, decorators, electricians etc etc being the go to job….just to repeat, it’s a Beauty and Holistic Therapy centre.

I bet the East are shaking in their shoes at our booming Holistic Therapy economy.😔

[Chewing Grass]

Mrs Chewy was watching the breakfast news, Rishi Sunak was on ignoring the MILF questioning him as he barged through the words he wanted to get out (and had probably rehearsed) and asked me what a Windfall Tax was as the impression she got was that it was wonderful.

I explained that the Magic 400 for everyone would end up as -1600 from the bluechips in everyone (who works) private pension pot.

She still didn't get it, so I gave up.

This is 80% (or more) of the UK.

[The Bear of Doom]

I had a quick look on the Treasury website about the details of this new "Energy Profits Levy", and so far there are only scant details available.

It is described as a tax on companies operating in the UK and UK continental shelf, so presumably it only covers profits made on those operations.

The wording on the tax relief suggests that it only applies to UK extraction, whuch suggests that it won't apply to refining, nor any green energy projects such as BPs hydrogen investments. I was under the impression that the North Sea fields are pretty much tapped out, so maybe there isn't much investment they can do.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Brown started that with tax credits (the start of the disaster we are now in).He gave the £11 a week to almost everyone with kids,then banged on another £55 a child for those on bennies.His reasoning was the middle would turn a blind eye to massive welfare spending if they were getting a bung.He simply took theirs back by changing the pension dividend rules.

The thing i can understand from the Tories is that Osborne started to get to grips with welfare,yet they have undone his work and more.10% increases in bennies next April are insane,your talking £50 a week uplifts for some.Hugely inflationary.Yet tax allowances frozen.Its a direct attack on working people just above bennie level.

The key thing to remember though is the BOE cant QE,so the government needs much more tax,and it will be wealth tax.

 

They have rushed the free dosh out yesterday way ahead of problems in the Winter, partly as a partygate distraction but I think it's also so they have time to start a media campaign about a wealth tax, ready for the Autumn budget. It's going to be wailing for the poor all summer, we have taxed the energy companies, who can we tax next? Let's get the rich folk but of course it will people in the middle who pay a much larger proportion of it than the very rich, who will be able to hide their real wealth.

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Mrs Chewy was watching the breakfast news, Rishi Sunak was on....

Youtube just played me a clip of Pishy on one of the breakfast shows, where he claimed the tax was to incentivise investment. Surely that would mean that if it works it won't raise much.

The windfall tax is a fig-leaf for printing IMO. @DurhamBorn did say he could envision further printing alongside rate rises, although I can't remember if that was US specific or not.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

My one from here will be Rentokil (hopefully go cheaper in a wider market sell-off).

I still have nightmares about owning them in 99/2000 when the share price halved!

[M S E Refugee]

The new Royal Mail Pension Plan is commiting to Net Zero.

What a load of brainwashed Cunting Bastards.