Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Thankfully most on here are very self-sufficient and that will be key.

Can you just confirm that Tesco will be self sufficient enough in diesel, that they will still be able to bring me my home deliveries? Cheers.

[geordie_lurch]

I've posted links to John Paul's blog before but for those still uncertain what's coming down the pipe take at least 10 mins to read his latest post then hopefully also click on the links to his older posts he quoted (his 'receipts') as he was calling all this month's ago - namely the current and worsening wheat, rice and oil refining shortages - https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/beyond-mathematical-probability-0

This one image and explanation should draw the oil crowd in...

"OPEC alone is reaching the 3 million barrels/day of missing production alone. So we are well beyond lacking these 3 million per day."

His current thoughts on food shortages...

"Weeks ago I estimated that the world would experience a loss of yield on all crops (grains mainly) between 7% to 15%, and that 15% was looked down upon as “too large of a number to be real. The average yield loss I get from most farmers right now is 20%. The erratic weather is global, it is affecting grains by rain or heat everywhere, and the drought is also global.

At the very least there will be global food shortages within this year, and by global, I mean in 30%+ of the world, including first world countries, which will lead to food riots in the richer nations."

[afly]

Seems to be quite a bit of chatter that the £400 stolen cash with bring down the rate of inflation as it's made energy £400 cheaper.

How stupid are these people?

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The new Royal Mail Pension is commiting to Net Zero.

What a load of brainwashed Cunting Bastards.

 

I've come to the conclusion that the Net Zero target really means that when people die, after their debts are settled their estate leaves a Net of Zero. When you think of it like that, all that they do makes sense.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, afly said:

Seems to be quite a bit of chatter that the £400 stolen cash with bring down the rate of inflation as it's made energy £400 cheaper.

How stupid are these people?

 

 

 

Very

[sleepwello'nights]

30 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

I had a quick look on the Treasury website about the details of this new "Energy Profits Levy", and so far there are only scant details available.

 

What a shame they didn't impose a windfall tax on pharmaceutical company sales.

[Harley]

 = ©Harley

[Libspero]

33 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

I had a quick look on the Treasury website about the details of this new "Energy Profits Levy", and so far there are only scant details available.

It is described as a tax on companies operating in the UK and UK continental shelf, so presumably it only covers profits made on those operations.

The wording on the tax relief suggests that it only applies to UK extraction, whuch suggests that it won't apply to refining, nor any green energy projects such as BPs hydrogen investments. I was under the impression that the North Sea fields are pretty much tapped out, so maybe there isn't much investment they can do.

I wonder if we could see a fracking partnership with some big oil companies investing in joint projects just for the tax breaks ?

I know some here are sceptical of the viability of fracking,  but if the energy companies reach a different conclusion that would presumably be classed as extraction and could make us self sufficient for natural gas for a few years while allowing Europe less competition for Scandinavian gas.

[BurntBread]

32 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The new Royal Mail Pension Plan is committing to Net Zero.

What a load of brainwashed Cunting Bastards.

 

Yesterday I attended my first meeting of the pension governance group at work. 99.4% of the money is in the default fund, which has a lot of "ESG screens" and related things.

I raised a concern that the default fund was being managed partly for political reasons, rather than fully for the financial benefit of the pension holders. That prompted a defensive response from the pension supplier representatives, saying that it was their opinion that the ESG firms will do better, and anyway "we need to have a world to retire to".

Afterwards, we were asked for feedback about the meeting, and I added that I thought this argument that, "we need to have a world to retire to" is a category error: all the companies will continue to do whatever they do, regardless of whether they are in our pensions. I said we need to have a discussion about what optional funds could be added to redress biases in the default fund (if people want to make that choice).

Anyway, I'm happy to be the objectionable guy in the room if it means that people get some choices. I'm not saying they will be better choices, but I hope we get something more than pure-play ESG. I don't think there is any possibility of changing the default fund, though. The optional funds are mainly very vanilla: some bond-only funds, some emerging market funds, some funds with even more "ethical" screens applied. The only two interesting ones I have found are FTSE all-share, and a fund which is 100% gold miners(!). Absolutely nothing dedicated to O&G, energy, industrials, transports, infrastructure or commodities.

[HousePriceMania]

Was worried I had sold out MACB too soon (79)

 

Macbeth PLC

75.38 GBX-13.26 (-14.96%)past 5 days

[afly]

Sunak:

Quote

“In terms of ‘is it one-off?’, what’s happening next year, I’d go back to what I said earlier. I do want people to be reassured and confident that we will get through this. We will be able to combat and reduce inflation, we have the tools at our disposal and after time it will come down.”

So that's a no then 

[Calcutta]

6 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Yesterday I attended my first meeting of the pension governance group at work. 99.4% of the money is in the default fund, which has a lot of "ESG screens" and related things.

I raised a concern that the default fund was being managed partly for political reasons, rather than fully for the financial benefit of the pension holders. That prompted a defensive response from the pension supplier representatives, saying that it was their opinion that the ESG firms will do better, and anyway "we need to have a world to retire to".

Afterwards, we were asked for feedback about the meeting, and I added that I thought this argument that, "we need to have a world to retire to" is a category error: all the companies will continue to do whatever they do, regardless of whether they are in our pensions. I said we need to have a discussion about what optional funds could be added to redress biases in the default fund (if people want to make that choice).

Anyway, I'm happy to be the objectionable guy in the room if it means that people get some choices. I'm not saying they will be better choices, but I hope we get something more than pure-play ESG. I don't think there is any possibility of changing the default fund, though. The optional funds are mainly very vanilla: some bond-only funds, some emerging market funds, some funds with even more "ethical" screens applied. The only two interesting ones I have found are FTSE all-share, and a fund which is 100% gold miners(!). Absolutely nothing dedicated to O&G, energy, industrials, transports, infrastructure or commodities.

The ftse all share is probably the best you're going to get. I wouldn't bother talking to anyone in power, just be sure to tell any other workers who aren't cunts to get theirs swapped out of the ecocrap. 

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Youtube just played me a clip of Pishy on one of the breakfast shows, where he claimed the tax was to incentivise investment. Surely that would mean that if it works it won't raise much.

The windfall tax is a fig-leaf for printing IMO. @DurhamBorn did say he could envision further printing alongside rate rises, although I can't remember if that was US specific or not.

That would explain why BP / Shell share prices haven't taken a hit. Drax has continued shitting the bed though.

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

They have rushed the free dosh out yesterday way ahead of problems in the Winter, partly as a partygate distraction but I think it's also so they have time to start a media campaign about a wealth tax, ready for the Autumn budget. It's going to be wailing for the poor all summer, we have taxed the energy companies, who can we tax next? Let's get the rich folk but of course it will people in the middle who pay a much larger proportion of it than the very rich, who will be able to hide their real wealth.

It is the Rentier model that all British governments and political parties are addicted. High House Prices and BTL are essentially non productive levies on workers earnings. Benefit claimants are also rentiers as they rely on the same source for their income. The whole set up is designed to discourage investment in production which needless to say is a disaster when there are supply side constraints.

[Lightly Toasted]

On 14/05/2022 at 15:16, janch said:

A step in the right direction perhaps as gvt want to cut 91,000 civil service jobs which should help bring down government spending:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-6143249

Another of my terrible jobs was as the lowest of the low in the civil service (DWP) when they were expanding which they do every so often to reduce the benefits bill.  Some of the "employed" would not have been hired anywhere else,  they were that bad.

It used to be they would hire bright people, now (if it's the same as in the 90s) a lot are just to make the employment figures look better and if you have a degree it's a handicap.

As much as I approve of reducing the size of the state, this is not the best time to do it. Cuts should have been applied during the boom phase -- take fuel from the fire when it's burning too hot, add more fuel when it's dying down.

As usual they forgot the first part of the Keynesian prescription and now they're reduced to removing fuel when the fire is already dying (not that you'd necessarily believe that after the welfare hand-outs!)

 

[Starsend]

Hmmm, anybody else use CMC?

I've just discovered this morning that they are suddenly enforcing a stop loss and a take profit on every single order I have tried so far. Been using them years and I've never been forced to use either of these before. It sets defaults levels and allows you to change them but not remove them - so you *HAVE* to have a stop loss and take profits.

Call me sceptical but I think this is designed to stop me making so many successful trades, 19 out of the last 20, some open for two years before they were in profit and gyrating all over the place. I'd bet that they will start enforcing within certain levels next.

 

 

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

I've posted links to John Paul's blog before but for those still uncertain what's coming down the pipe take at least 10 mins to read his latest post then hopefully also click on the links to his older posts he quoted (his 'receipts') as he was calling all this month's ago - namely the current and worsening wheat, rice and oil refining shortages - https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/beyond-mathematical-probability-0

This one image and explanation should draw the oil crowd in...

"OPEC alone is reaching the 3 million barrels/day of missing production alone. So we are well beyond lacking these 3 million per day."

His current thoughts on food shortages...

"Weeks ago I estimated that the world would experience a loss of yield on all crops (grains mainly) between 7% to 15%, and that 15% was looked down upon as “too large of a number to be real. The average yield loss I get from most farmers right now is 20%. The erratic weather is global, it is affecting grains by rain or heat everywhere, and the drought is also global.

At the very least there will be global food shortages within this year, and by global, I mean in 30%+ of the world, including first world countries, which will lead to food riots in the richer nations."

Yes, the American situation as regards climate effects on wheat farming this year is an unmitigated disaster if what I have been given to understand is correct. There is trouble ahead.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Hmmm, anybody else use CMC?

I've just discovered this morning that they are suddenly enforcing a stop loss and a take profit on every single order I have tried so far. Been using them years and I've never been forced to use either of these before. It sets defaults levels and allows you to change them but not remove them - so you *HAVE* to have a stop loss and take profits.

Call me sceptical but I think this is designed to stop me making so many successful trades, 19 out of the last 20, some open for two years before they were in profit and gyrating all over the place. I'd bet that they will start enforcing within certain levels next.

 

 

Can't you just set the stop loss to 1 and the take profit to 99999?

[baffledbyzirp]

2 hours ago, invalid said:

 

For those of us who work to pay for all this it does rather feel like they are trolling us. Ok, we all get the £400 but for workers its going to be a close to zero sum game as we will have to pay for it one way or another.

These people are just never happy and always want more.

Some great stereotypes in the examples below from todays online DM.

57 year old woman claiming sick for depression and anxiety (not to belittle that as its a real difficulty for many). Article says she is retired - no mention of if she gets a pension. Assume if she does it not much as she gets UC.

Fat dad for a change in the next one. They essentially run a nail bar with hairdressing and massages with fancy stones. I'm afraid they are going to get hit hard over the next couple of years, especially in a town like Wisbech.

 

Then there are some others which sound like hobby jobs - a magician, a lifestyle expert, a coffee expert (really?), a personal trainer. A couple seemed to have real jobs.

 

Carole Anne Wilson, 57, who lives in Wrexham, Wales, is retired with a series of illnesses and lives alone on Universal Credit She said: 'There's just not enough being done ... there's nowhere for me to turn 'In January (2022) after all my bills I had something like £200 a month left to get food and fuel or whatever,' she said.

'Now I've got £12.36 left and I don't get my money until June 18.

'My anxiety has gone through the roof. I just can't cope with the anxiety and the depression, it just gets worse and worse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saw this and, like Pip, could not help but question who with a 2 digit IQ would take health and beauty advice from a 48 year old guy who is obscenely over weight and wheelchair bound? Clearly my assumptions are without foundation however, 'just because I am paranoid it doesn't mean they're not out to get me.'

These two champions of entrepreneurial vigor will undoubtedly face imminent bankruptcy when demand for their nonsense business disappears quicker than a puddle in the Sahara. Like the demise of countless cup cake stores before and during the pandemic. When will morons realise that businesses exclusively reliant on impulse purchases by other penniless morons to combat their feelings of inadequacy, are not a sound business proposition in the longer term.

I was also reminded of the incomparable Jeremy Kyle in the profile above about the depressed middle aged woman surviving on £12 p.w. She used 'my' referring to the benefits received when the correct possessive pronoun should be 'your'. The sense of righteous entitlement is sickening. Where is the pride borne of self-reliance and endeavour? As Bud Fox opined in the 1980s, "there is no nobility in poverty anymore."

These two examples perfectly demonstrate what Margaret Thatcher called 'the Nanny State'. What has this once proud nation become? As the scales increasingly favour those who benefit from indolence over others who graft to provide for themselves and their families, the welfare state is doomed because, if you can't beat them you join them.

 

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Can't you just set the stop loss to 1 and the take profit to 99999?

Looking closer, it's only the stop loss they're forcing on me, stupid design of the ticket.

Yes you can set it very low so not an issue at this time. I'm interested as to why they've done it though. I don't believe for a second it's to protect me as their business model relies on the opposite. If they start enforcing that I set it at (or above) a certain level then it's game over, new provider.

[afly]

Labour quick to remind us they are even more batshit

https://www.ft.com/content/f1478970-a22a-460c-a0fa-d89504a7dafd

Quote

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed Sunak’s support package, but said more could be done. “The profits being made by [energy] companies have gone up by more than even Labour had anticipated so there’s more money that can be brought in,” Reeves told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Friday.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Saw this and, like Pip, could not help but question who with a 2 digit IQ would take health and beauty advice from a 48 year old guy who is obscenely over weight and wheelchair bound? Clearly my assumptions are without foundation however, 'just because I am paranoid it doesn't mean they're not out to get me.'

These two champions of entrepreneurial vigor will undoubtedly face imminent bankruptcy when demand for their nonsense business disappears quicker than a puddle in the Sahara. Like the demise of countless cup cake stores before and during the pandemic. When will morons realise that businesses exclusively reliant on impulse purchases by other penniless morons to combat their feelings of inadequacy, are not a sound business proposition in the longer term.

I was also reminded of the incomparable Jeremy Kyle in the profile above about the depressed middle aged woman surviving on £12 p.w. She used 'my' referring to the benefits received when the correct possessive pronoun should be 'your'. The sense of righteous entitlement is sickening. Where is the pride borne of self-reliance and endeavour? As Bud Fox opined in the 1980s, "there is no nobility in poverty anymore."

These two examples perfectly demonstrate what Margaret Thatcher called 'the Nanny State'. What has this once proud nation become? As the scales increasingly favour those who benefit from indolence over others who graft to provide for themselves and their families, the welfare state is doomed because, if you can't beat them you join them.

 

That women will of feasted on bennies all the time she had her kids,then they got over 18,she was ugly as sin,no decent bloke would want and she needs to work full time or get £75 a week.Instead she makes up illness,so she can get UC + probably PIP,leading a very nice life until bill went up so now everything is paid but she isnt left with anything.She has 10 years until state pension.In a few years the country will be full of them.Single person bennies are poor unless you get all disability uplifts so from 45ish to 67ish these women will be skint unless they can bag a half decent fella or one of the upper middle class immigrants most of the white women on adverts have.Not sure where they all live,but ITV think its 90% of couples.

[Bobthebuilder]

It seems that 2nd home owners are going to get Rishis £400 bung twice.

 

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It seems that 2nd home owners are going to get Rishis £400 bung twice.

 

Come on, be fair, they have got two sets of bills to pay.

[Starsend]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That women will of feasted on bennies all the time she had her kids,then they got over 18,she was ugly as sin,no decent bloke would want and she needs to work full time or get £75 a week.Instead she makes up illness,so she can get UC + probably PIP,leading a very nice life until bill went up so now everything is paid but she isnt left with anything.She has 10 years until state pension.In a few years the country will be full of them.Single person bennies are poor unless you get all disability uplifts so from 45ish to 67ish these women will be skint unless they can bag a half decent fella or one of the upper middle class immigrants most of the white women on adverts have.Not sure where they all live,but ITV think its 90% of couples.

Most women at 50+ are ugly fat fuckers with a bad attitude - no bloke in his right mind is going to go there.

I always remember when my kids were at school, many years ago. I was astounded by how many of their friends parents had split up with the woman sat in the house on her arse receiving money from the Government and the ex (I'd guess about 75% - affluent area as well). It was the woman's decision to boot the ex out in almost all cases, father's generally don't want to leave their children.

Now they're going to have to pay for their laziness and bad decisions, well hopefully, if Rishi doesn't keep giving them money.