Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightscribe]

22 hours ago, marceau said:

I genuinely cannot understand the thinking behind this. What are they trying to achieve? It doesn't make any sense from any perspective. Am I missing something or is this just completely incoherent?

It makes perfect sense in theory of to where it may be going.

The government is at war with private BTL. They’ll eventually be forced out through voids and interest rate rises. By getting people on benefits to buy a house, you are essentially funnelling housing benefit back to the government instead of private BTL pockets.

It’s essentially another stepping stone into UBI. It doesn’t matter if people have 50 year mortgages of a 5% proportion of ownership with the worst credit history in world when the government is helping to stump up the rest. Theres more control for them to pay themselves than having to keep raising housing benefit allowance caps for the future. 

Basically government council houses once again, but just not the associated maintenance and costs that go with it as you ‘own’ it remember?

As long as they ‘think’ they’re ‘paying’ towards owning something is the only thing than matters. In reality however you’ll own nothing and be happy.

[Sue Lowe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.johnsmedley.com/uk/

Durham meet clothes need to be from Smedley's ,you all bought Mosaic,not Zoom 

There's plenty on eBay.

 

 

Didn't buy Mosaic 

 

When is this meet up anyway? On the train to Durham now. Be handy if it were this weekend!

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve been buying Jupiter! Not 100% convinced of them tbh but market cap wise they’re small enough to be a takeover target...

Same,i think they have problems,but likely a takeover target.

[Sue Lowe]

4 minutes ago, Sue Lowe said:

When is this meet up anyway? On the train to Durham now. Be handy if it were this weekend!

And the trolly dolly is gorgeous. Loving this table service.

(Obviously brought my own bottle of Aldi Cava with me, mind.)

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

It makes perfect sense in theory of to where it may be going.

The government is at war with private BTL. They’ll eventually be forced out through voids and interest rate rises. By getting people on benefits to buy a house, you are essentially funnelling housing benefit back to the government instead of private BTL pockets.

It’s essentially another stepping stone into UBI. It doesn’t matter if people have 50 year mortgages of a 5% proportion of ownership with the worst credit history in world when the government is helping to stump up the rest. Theres more control for them to pay themselves than having to keep raising housing benefit allowance caps for the future. 

Basically government council houses once again, but just not the associated maintenance and costs that go with it as you ‘own’ it remember?

As long as they ‘think’ they’re ‘paying’ towards owning something is the only thing than matters. In reality however you’ll own nothing and be happy.

I said a similar thing when they started Help to Buy. It's getting them to pay their own future benefits, if they move them from renting (housing benefit/pension credit later if not already) to buying. Added benefit is that banks make money from people who weren't going to have mortgages.

I think Benefits for Bricks signals the next prop. They know the middle class grafters will be complaining about one aimed at the bennies, so to appease them it will be the return of something like MIRAS. When crash Gordon abolished it, he said it was a middle class perk.

[working woman]

News from the shop floor

Someone earlier was asking about John Lewis. I have some experience of working in their stores, from being sent there as an experiment from one of the companies who had concessions there.  

JL had recently made many  sales assistants redundant, and just kept Floor Managers and Merchandisers. (Processed deliveries and put stock out on the floor)

I was sent there for several weeks to man the space and see if and how much sales would increase.  Result - Sales increased. Customers happy as they received the customer service they expected from JL.  Space fully stocked and tidy.

Despite making enough money to employ someone, they decided not to.  

I guess there is an element of the Pareto principle, 20-30% of the tasks make 70-80% of the sales. The 20-30% tasks would include putting the stock on the shop floor. 

I enjoyed working there, getting an insight into the JL culture and enjoying lunch at the amazingly cheap staff restaurant. 

I remember hearing about the new lady CEO of JL, not sure if she is in charge of Waitrose too. She seemed to be an accountant type person, which yes is important as the bottom line is all about money.  I was disappointed though that she wasn't from a clothing background.  I guess that is a hard combination to get as there are only a few similar large retailers, Next, HoF, M&S.   JL survived Covid, so I guess she is doing something right. 

To get through the upcoming bad times, I think retailers should motivate sales staff to go the extra mile by putting them on commission. I worked for an independent and was put on commission for a particular product.  Bras    (I know how to measure and fit bras).  My colleague and I were really motivated, we sold way more than normal,  but the owners didn't want to pay us so much commission - £1 a bra - so stopped the idea. Result - two very demotivated sales staff.

Self service Tills in clothes shops - I was in M&S in London a few months ago and was horrified with their new self service tills in the clothes department. ,Just like the supermarket, you scan the clothes, put the item on the scales, then pay. As a sales assistant, inside I was screaming nnnnnnnnoooooooooooooooo! That is the end of my job, and many others in a few years. What are we all expected to do?

Porridge Bread - A cooking experiment this week. My husband found a recipe to make bread made from porridge oats, yoghurt, eggs, baking powder and walnuts. I would say, if we can't get flour in the future, we can hopefully fall back on Scottish porridge oats. I would omit the walnuts. It was ok, quite heavy, not for sandwiches but would be good with soup. I made some croutons out of it tonight, delicious.

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, working woman said:

To get through the upcoming bad times, I think retailers should motivate sales staff to go the extra mile by putting them on commission. I worked for an independent and was put on commission for a particular product.  Bras    (I know how to measure and fit bras).  My colleague and I were really motivated, we sold way more than normal,  but the owners didn't want to pay us so much commission - £1 a bra - so stopped the idea. Result - two very demotivated sales staff.

Good idea.

I'd do it for 25p per cup.

 

[steppensheep]

28 minutes ago, working woman said:

Self service Tills in clothes shops - I was in M&S in London a few months ago and was horrified with their new self service tills in the clothes department.

have you been to decathlon? all the items are uniquely rfid tagged and you just chuck everything (one by one) in the bay by the till and it adds it all up. been like that a few years.

[The Grey Man]

19 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

“They left England wealthy men, they docked in New York without a penny…..”

 

 

Great comment section too.

[working woman]

5 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

have you been to decathlon? all the items are uniquely rfid tagged and you just chuck everything (one by one) in the bay by the till and it adds it all up. been like that a few years.

I was aware of a company doing this, and knew it would go mainstream at some point. Where I currently work our labels recently changed, I believe to this, so it is coming to us soon too by the look of it. 

It is funny, all this technology to control stock, yet a shop lifter can come in, lift a rail of clothes and get away with it.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

 In regard to Japan buying ETFs from the stock market, the Swiss National Bank buys individual stocks and approx. 25% of its CB reserves are in equities, with only 8% gold. I suppose Switzerland is small country and will not affect or destabalise the stock market, but for the US to do the same would be a step far too far?                                                                                                                                                       

 

The SNB wouldn't fit in down here.SNB is privately owned by shareholders.Their portfolio isnt the sort of one I'd want to go into a BK with

https://fintel.io/i/swiss-national-bank

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

News from the shop floor

Someone earlier was asking about John Lewis. I have some experience of working in their stores, from being sent there as an experiment from one of the companies who had concessions there.  

JL had recently made many  sales assistants redundant, and just kept Floor Managers and Merchandisers. (Processed deliveries and put stock out on the floor)

I was sent there for several weeks to man the space and see if and how much sales would increase.  Result - Sales increased. Customers happy as they received the customer service they expected from JL.  Space fully stocked and tidy.

Despite making enough money to employ someone, they decided not to.  

I guess there is an element of the Pareto principle, 20-30% of the tasks make 70-80% of the sales. The 20-30% tasks would include putting the stock on the shop floor. 

I enjoyed working there, getting an insight into the JL culture and enjoying lunch at the amazingly cheap staff restaurant. 

I remember hearing about the new lady CEO of JL, not sure if she is in charge of Waitrose too. She seemed to be an accountant type person, which yes is important as the bottom line is all about money.  I was disappointed though that she wasn't from a clothing background.  I guess that is a hard combination to get as there are only a few similar large retailers, Next, HoF, M&S.   JL survived Covid, so I guess she is doing something right. 

To get through the upcoming bad times, I think retailers should motivate sales staff to go the extra mile by putting them on commission. I worked for an independent and was put on commission for a particular product.  Bras    (I know how to measure and fit bras).  My colleague and I were really motivated, we sold way more than normal,  but the owners didn't want to pay us so much commission - £1 a bra - so stopped the idea. Result - two very demotivated sales staff.

Self service Tills in clothes shops - I was in M&S in London a few months ago and was horrified with their new self service tills in the clothes department. ,Just like the supermarket, you scan the clothes, put the item on the scales, then pay. As a sales assistant, inside I was screaming nnnnnnnnoooooooooooooooo! That is the end of my job, and many others in a few years. What are we all expected to do?

Porridge Bread - A cooking experiment this week. My husband found a recipe to make bread made from porridge oats, yoghurt, eggs, baking powder and walnuts. I would say, if we can't get flour in the future, we can hopefully fall back on Scottish porridge oats. I would omit the walnuts. It was ok, quite heavy, not for sandwiches but would be good with soup. I made some croutons out of it tonight, delicious.

I find the commission thing interesting. You still get people on commission in shops in poorer countries (if you decide to buy something after using their help/advice they follow you to the till and nod to the cashier). I think it’s less than 20 years ago that Currys/Dixon’s all but scrapped it (had a school friend who worked weekends in the very early 2000’s and regarded it a goldmine).

You do get far more motivated staff.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

News from the shop floor

Someone earlier was asking about John Lewis. I have some experience of working in their stores, from being sent there as an experiment from one of the companies who had concessions there.  

JL had recently made many  sales assistants redundant, and just kept Floor Managers and Merchandisers. (Processed deliveries and put stock out on the floor)

I was sent there for several weeks to man the space and see if and how much sales would increase.  Result - Sales increased. Customers happy as they received the customer service they expected from JL.  Space fully stocked and tidy.

Despite making enough money to employ someone, they decided not to.  

I guess there is an element of the Pareto principle, 20-30% of the tasks make 70-80% of the sales. The 20-30% tasks would include putting the stock on the shop floor. 

I enjoyed working there, getting an insight into the JL culture and enjoying lunch at the amazingly cheap staff restaurant. 

I remember hearing about the new lady CEO of JL, not sure if she is in charge of Waitrose too. She seemed to be an accountant type person, which yes is important as the bottom line is all about money.  I was disappointed though that she wasn't from a clothing background.  I guess that is a hard combination to get as there are only a few similar large retailers, Next, HoF, M&S.   JL survived Covid, so I guess she is doing something right. 

To get through the upcoming bad times, I think retailers should motivate sales staff to go the extra mile by putting them on commission. I worked for an independent and was put on commission for a particular product.  Bras    (I know how to measure and fit bras).  My colleague and I were really motivated, we sold way more than normal,  but the owners didn't want to pay us so much commission - £1 a bra - so stopped the idea. Result - two very demotivated sales staff.

Self service Tills in clothes shops - I was in M&S in London a few months ago and was horrified with their new self service tills in the clothes department. ,Just like the supermarket, you scan the clothes, put the item on the scales, then pay. As a sales assistant, inside I was screaming nnnnnnnnoooooooooooooooo! That is the end of my job, and many others in a few years. What are we all expected to do?

Porridge Bread - A cooking experiment this week. My husband found a recipe to make bread made from porridge oats, yoghurt, eggs, baking powder and walnuts. I would say, if we can't get flour in the future, we can hopefully fall back on Scottish porridge oats. I would omit the walnuts. It was ok, quite heavy, not for sandwiches but would be good with soup. I made some croutons out of it tonight, delicious.

I think you've hit on the one thing that could save a portion of retial(mostof it is screwed)and that's service.I go to a local DIY shop,great advice,slightly more expensive than B&Q but eht advice saves you that and then some.They also own the freehold I suspect.Same witha few shops I go to that have a customer base that understands if they want good advice,they have to pay some for it.Some people like me are happy to.

There's only two things that can happen for msot of the retialers that are left that don't own their own freehold.One is that taxes and rents come down,the otehr is that greedy landlords/banks/govt send them under.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

Bras    (I know how to measure and fit bras).  My colleague and I were really motivated

I bet you were!

[Ash4781b]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Says a lot about John Lewis's future that that's their solution to their retialing problems.Looking at their Board,they really do seem to lack decent retail experience.

@Ash4781b if you're around,you got a view on JL and what's happening in their world.Are they in big trouble or jsut minor trading stuff?

I'm 51,I'm a child of terrrestrial TV,I haven't watched ITV in literally years.

They're equity is £1.5bn and of that circa £1.5bn is goodwill and intangibles

Fascinating piece

'The price rises are striking. In the 1930s a typical three bed house was just 1 and a half times the average annual salary. By 1997 the average house price was 3.6 times the average salary. But in just twenty years that has more than doubled to nearly 8 times, and in London an ‘affordable’ home is 13 times first-time buyers’ salaries.

If we look at the data, the shortage myth becomes clear. Housing stock levels have consistently risen at a higher rate than population growth even in the past couple of decades, and even in London. , according to the laws of supply and demand, if houses were a simple consumer good, prices should have fallen – obviously not the case.

I’ve not really been following them. Although thanks I see they are going into housebuilding or management and or furnishing the rentals out. Seems like a speculative strategy but the so-called article lists 40% profit from outside of retail as 2030 target. So I guess we’ll see more things non retail. I thought they’d just end up milking the brand route . John Lewis care homes can’t be far away.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-61744845.amp

 

[Bricormortis]

american inflation figures tomorrow. Markets not happy already.

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The SNB wouldn't fit in down here.SNB is privately owned by shareholders.Their portfolio isnt the sort of one I'd want to go into a BK with

https://fintel.io/i/swiss-national-bank

looks like gartners portfolio, sort of an anti portfolio, he was great on zero hedge as an anti barometer, when he said gold - sell it asap, he went long - you go short, was like a machine, never failed or rather failed constantly, the anti midas touch.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

american inflation figures tomorrow. Markets not happy already.

Poor people fucking dancing in the streets are they? 

[HousePriceMania]

59 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I find the commission thing interesting. You still get people on commission in shops in poorer countries (if you decide to buy something after using their help/advice they follow you to the till and nod to the cashier). I think it’s less than 20 years ago that Currys/Dixon’s all but scrapped it (had a school friend who worked weekends in the very early 2000’s and regarded it a goldmine).

You do get far more motivated staff.

They do this at Heathrow Airport and others. 

 

They have helpers the guide people into shops... Commission paid 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The SNB wouldn't fit in down here.SNB is privately owned by shareholders.Their portfolio isnt the sort of one I'd want to go into a BK with

https://fintel.io/i/swiss-national-bank

Looks like my short list 

[DurhamBorn]

 

[working woman]

17 minutes ago, Errol said:

I bet you were!

Ha! Ha!  Inside leg measurements for men is more my style, as long as they hold the tape at the top of their legs.  

34 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think you've hit on the one thing that could save a portion of retail, most of it is screwed, and that's service.

40 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I find the commission thing interesting.   You do get far more motivated staff.

Yes, service and commission is a definite competitive edge and it works. As someone further up thread interestingly said, you don't have to be really good, just slightly better than the competition.  

[AWW]

2 hours ago, working woman said:

Porridge Bread - A cooking experiment this week. My husband found a recipe to make bread made from porridge oats, yoghurt, eggs, baking powder and walnuts. I would say, if we can't get flour in the future, we can hopefully fall back on Scottish porridge oats. I would omit the walnuts. It was ok, quite heavy, not for sandwiches but would be good with soup. I made some croutons out of it tonight, delicious.

Mrs AWW makes this stuff. It's really nice toasted with salted butter and a bit of decent cheddar on top.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The SNB wouldn't fit in down here.SNB is privately owned by shareholders.Their portfolio isnt the sort of one I'd want to go into a BK with

https://fintel.io/i/swiss-national-bank

The SNB is effectively owned by Swiss citizens; 25% is private, with the remainder owned by the cantons and canton public bodies. But for sure yes the share portfolio is Spasticus Autisticus!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 hours ago, working woman said:

Self service Tills in clothes shops - I was in M&S in London a few months ago and was horrified with their new self service tills in the clothes department. ,Just like the supermarket, you scan the clothes, put the item on the scales, then pay. As a sales assistant, inside I was screaming nnnnnnnnoooooooooooooooo! That is the end of my job, and many others in a few years. What are we all expected to do?

I would have thought M&S customers expect their clothes to be folded and placed into the bag. This probably shows that I'm out of touch with M&S. Cutting corners to cut costs isn't a good idea if the customers like those corners. I suppose a chain like M&S trials these things in some stores and treats them differently. What works in central London won't work elsewhere.