Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

44 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Looks like classic top of bubble stuff to me.

100%.

Another way to look at it is, look how incompetent JL is in every way possible. Look at their awful board of spastics. Do you really think they would be early or late to a bandwagon?

[Noallegiance]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

board of spastics

Not gender-specific.

Well done.

[WICAO]

3 hours ago, JREWING said:

Nah mate. I lived over there for five years, I'm a citizen, I might go back one day, if times got really rough here, maybe retire on state handouts over threre. Medical provisions are very good as most Australians have private. Bennies ain't bad if you own nothing and have a drink problem of some kind, had a few Abbo friends.  But working for a living over there, most Australians I know work long hours, travel long distances and have no idea how the worlds financial system works. They think money is real. How's that work hey?

The housing market makes the UK's look cheap up north. They are obsessed with property, it's quite sickening. When I lived over there, I only mixed with Australians, some indiginous; never expats, I mean why move to the other side of the world to go out for a coldy with Pom's, you can do that in Manchester.

The UK has it's problems, but for me it could get rather nasty over there quite quickly. It's funny I met a guy last week in a bar, he spent a month out there on holiday, was his dream holiday after retirement, I asked him what he thought.

His reply was, Australians are ignorant tossers, too hot, f**king expensive, and the Shiela's huh; nah mate not for me. I never regret my time over there, but a pie and a pint in an English boozer, a good nights sleep on a winters night, a walk in the park in the Autumn, a bit of English banter with the landlady at the local. Home is home for me post 50.

But I wish you all the luck in the world, if you have a few quid, house paid for, don't go out drinking much, into outdoor stuff, it's great Sadly I'm skint, rent, not into outdoor stuff, maybe a bit of dogging. and always out on the piss.

Maybe that's why it's working for us.  As you highlight w have a few quid, are building our own home paid for with cash, hardly drink alcohol and very much into the outdoor life.

[kibuc]

Polish IRs up again, by 75bps, to 6% (it was 0.1% back in September). May inflation YoY at 13.9%.

[Axeman123]

BJ live on TV right now, press conference calling for reducing cost of government and taxation burden. All the right noises being made. Not exactly compatible with buying scroungers a free house though.

 

[Democorruptcy]

13 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Polish IRs up again, by 75bps, to 6% (it was 0.1% back in September). May inflation YoY at 13.9%.

Re Poland I've been watching a German crime drama, that over here is called Nordic Murders. It's set on a place I'd never heard of called Usedom island. It's looks to have a nice bit of coast. I read it's the sunniest place in either Germany or Poland. Do you know it, any good? Could I get 6% on my savings but have a lower personal inflation rate?

[Democorruptcy]

I didn't know Uncle Terry had been put under the FCA microscope early May. What's that about?

Quote

 

Fundsmith to undergo FCA-mandated review

A section 166 notice was reportedly issued by the watchdog in the first quarter of 2022

Investment juggernaut Fundsmith has been asked to undertake a skilled person review by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The review is a regulatory tool, under section 166 of the Financial Services and Markets Act (FSMA), which allows the FCA to trigger an independent view of a firm’s activities that are a cause for concern or require further analysis. This includes governance, controls or risk management assessments.

The news, which was first reported by The Mail on Sunday, means that Terry Smith’s (pictured) eponymous firm will be scrutinised by a third party; commonly one of the ‘Big Four’ accountants or a law firm.

No details have been provided about what triggered the S166 or when it might be completed. An FCA spokesperson told Portfolio Adviser that it is unable to confirm or deny if an S166 has been served. However, the latest figures from the watchdog show that a total of 11 were issued in the first quarter of 2022.

A spokesperson for FundSmith declined to comment.

In January, Portfolio Adviser reported that Fundsmith profits jumped 19% in 2021 despite a rare period of underperformance. Smith personally netted a £35.7m payout, up from £29.7m the previous year.

Smith’s £25bn flagship Fundsmith Equity strategy also defied the rotation away from growth investing and tech-sell off in the early part of 2022 to remain the most bought fund on Interactive Investor in March.

Though it has lost investors 11.1% year-to-date, versus the IA Global’s -8.3% return, it has returned close to 500% since launching in 2010, over two and a half times higher than the average.

https://portfolio-adviser.com/fundsmith-to-undergo-fca-mandated-review/

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

 

[Starsend]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

BJ live on TV right now, press conference calling for reducing cost of government and taxation burden. All the right noises being made. Not exactly compatible with buying scroungers a free house though.

 

I can't even watch the nauseating lying cunts. Can't believe anybody falls for their lies anymore, same shit for decades. He'll be promising a bonfire of red tape again I expect - for the 100th time. Oh and to get immigration down for the 100th time. 

You can reliably take the opposite of what they say to understand what will actually transpire. They're nasty people.

[Axeman123]

Just now, Starsend said:

I can't even watch the nauseating lying cunts. Can't believe anybody falls for their lies anymore, same shit for decades. He'll be promising a bonfire of red tape again I expect - for the 100th time. Oh and to get immigration down for the 100th time. 

You can reliably take the opposite of what they say to understand what will actually transpire. They're nasty people.

He has made the right noises, ie house prices expressed as income multiples and house prices going up faster than wages. Now he is explaining how this means people need to be able to borrow more to keep pushing them up.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I can't even watch the nauseating lying cunts. Can't believe anybody falls for their lies anymore, same shit for decades. He'll be promising a bonfire of red tape again I expect - for the 100th time. Oh and to get immigration down for the 100th time. 

You can reliably take the opposite of what they say to understand what will actually transpire. They're nasty people.

How did the Quango bonfire go ?

[BWW]

On 09/06/2022 at 10:51, Democorruptcy said:

That's a tad more complicated then just looking at who paid the 3% stamp duty premium!

Sounds simple but it's not. You *can* buy a house as your PPR, no 3%, make it a rental after a few years and sell it decades later. You can also buy a BTL and pay the 3%. Then move into it as your PPR and sell after a few years living in it not mentioning to the solicitors who are the front line of checking such things that you only lived there the last couple of years. In addition the 3% has only existed the last few years, many BTL and 2nd homes have been owned decades.

There are [have always been] rules for all these situations, they're a tad complicated too. Many have taken gains without declaring correctly or paying.

Just tax anyone [again] who already paid correctly is equivalent to just rob anyone who happens to have dosh now. It's a system but not one I subscribe to. It's the sort of system which would make it advisable for anyone with wealth to get it out and flee pronto.

Oddly those whose suggest it are those who would not pay and there's a meme about first they came for ...

My view is always make those who haven't paid correctly pay up now. Gov and lazy civil servants continue to go after whoever they can easily tap. There's a limit to that.

[Starsend]

6 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

He has made the right noises, ie house prices expressed as income multiples and house prices going up faster than wages. Now he is explaining how this means people need to be able to borrow more to keep pushing them up.

This is their playbook. They show you that that do actually understand the problem - the one they created. All the sheep go, ah see they do understand our predicament, I'm going to vote for that nice man trying to help us. They then with 100% predictability find a way to make the problem worse - because it benefits them.

A few years later...

[snaga]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

How did the Quango bonfire go ?

to be perfectly honest, I haven't heard the term Quango for some time, I guess by burning, they just renamed them?

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, BWW said:

Sounds simple but it's not. You *can* buy a house as your PPR, no 3%, make it a rental after a few years and sell it decades later. You can also buy a BTL and pay the 3%. Then move into it as your PPR and sell after a few years living in it not mentioning to the solicitors who are the front line of checking such things that you only lived there the last couple of years. In addition the 3% has only existed the last few years, many BTL and 2nd homes have been owned decades.

There are [have always been] rules for all these situations, they're a tad complicated too. Many have taken gains without declaring correctly or paying.

Just tax anyone [again] who already paid correctly is equivalent to just rob anyone who happens to have dosh now. It's a system but not one I subscribe to. It's the sort of system which would make it advisable for anyone with wealth to get it out and flee pronto.

Oddly those whose suggest it are those who would not pay and there's a meme about first they came for ...

My view is always make those who haven't paid correctly pay up now. Gov and lazy civil servants continue to go after whoever they can easily tap. There's a limit to that.

We know they are sinking and doing policies that will take on more water, so best to point them towards someone else who can pay for it. It's dog eat dog. I'm trying to knock deckchairs over to trip them up, as they chase me to a lifeboat.

[Heart's Ease]

21 minutes ago, snaga said:

to be perfectly honest, I haven't heard the term Quango for some time, I guess by burning, they just renamed them?

They just called them Arm's Length Bodies, or Non-Departmental Public Bodies or even Executive Non-Departmental Public Bodies.  Still Quangos.

Bonfire of red tape lol.

PS @Democorruptcy @kibuc

The Erwin Hymer museum nearish to Munich has some fascinating home made caravans made by East Germans during the DDR years. Made from whatever scraps they could lay their hands on. For them, the dream would be the beaches of the North (to us now, mostly Poland). I think they had to be good party members to get that sort of privilege. Exhibition went into quite a lot of detail, lots there for those interested in social history of that time. 

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

Somebody tell him to wrap the ceiling light shade behind him in tin foil, so it looks like his hat.

[JMD]

16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The problem is that the pool of talent Bozza has to pick from is pisspoor.A lot of Thatcher's first cabinet had served in WW2 and had some real world experience beyond the law.

Genuinely can't remember a govt with so few people able to step up to the top spot convincingly.Truss/David/Hunt/Gove/Patel/Sunak etc etc.Red wall seats may be retained but that'll only be because Labour manage the unique feat of making the current crop of Tories electable.

But maybe a pisspoor political class is what's needed.Have an economic wipeout and then hope that the political system renews itself with some new blood.

The situation is worse than that.Take away the bond/ETF buying and GDP would get pummelled

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/a-430-billion-habit-got-japan-s-central-bank-hooked-on-etfs

I was thinking more like BJ doing a radical cabinet clear out and overhaul. Perhaps there are some bright Young Turks (Johnson is actually 1/4 Turkish!) on the back benches. But yes very much a last gasp, and I'm not holding much hope from here. But tbh I wouldn't know as I don't follow or vote conservative. But I agree yes a frightening dearth of political talent around. I think they all saw 'the future' very early on, and began retiring from public life from the early 90s.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        In regard to Japan buying ETFs from the stock market, the Swiss National Bank buys individual stocks and approx. 25% of its CB reserves are in equities, with only 8% gold. I suppose Switzerland is small country and will not affect or destabalise the stock market, but for the US to do the same would be a step far too far?                                                                                                                                                        But I wonder what might come next? I've heard some commentators say Japan is on course for issuing itself a 1% 100 year bond and thus will effectively cancel its own national debt. Apparently Japan's favourable balance of trade position might allow it to do this more easily than other trade deficit Western countries. I think when the politics are right - perhaps when the China/multi polar world setup begins to emerge - Japan will instigate it's own debt jubilee. Actually I think it is already preparing the ground work for this - so as to not make the debt policy look totally selfish it is beginning things like this...                                                                    https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/eb372bebf50b-japan-to-help-african-countries-escape-chinas-debt-trap.html

[Joncrete Cungle]

5 hours ago, Pip321 said:

No very macro I know but a few flashes on the radar today so may go shopping.

i am still in the early stages of building but have filled Abdn and half filled Hargreaves so it’s a choice and just deciding which one looks best ladder opportunity from the following (best of the best)…

Hargreaves….820p

Post Office….280p (interesting)

Vodafone…..124p

Admiral…….2222p

Fres…….760p

ITV…….69p (bit of a ringer I know) 

Other random suggestions welcome…but not maybe not Apple 😆😆

 

Hit my first ladder into Turkcell & Jupiter is looking a bit unloved.

[geordie_lurch]

Something to keep an eye on over the channel

Things are going to get lively by the end of the week me thinks...

 

[reformed nice guy]

Doing a review of my holdings and just wanted to say thank you for everyone chipping in to this discussion. It has really helped and I am not exaggerating when I say it has been life changing. Portfolio is sitting at an all time high but still have plenty of cash at the side waiting for ladders to get hit.

To help anyone that is new, sent this to my brother:

Hargreaves Landsdown charges a % fee for funds, so dont hold funds with them. Iweb doesnt charge a holding fee for funds, so hold funds with them instead.

If you have a SIPP, hold American stocks in that to save on withholding taxes.

Try to keep big dividend payers in your ISA rather than SIPP - there is not lifetime limit on ISA but inflation keeps bringing that pension lifetime limit down and down

 

[JMD]

13 hours ago, wherebee said:

Australia SHOULD be one of the leading economic success stories of the 21st century.  We have massive reserves of energy, in some of the best locations re uninhabited terrain.  We have food production capabilities beyond the dreams of China.  We have massive potential for renewables such as solar, water, and wind.

And yet I am confident that Australian politicians will fuck it up, again.  The lucky country.

But doesn't Australia and South Africa, share top spot for having best performing stock markets over the last 100 years, irregardless of time series?...  What more do you want!                                                                                                                   I do agree with you though regarding Australia's economic performance not making sense - it's almost like the WEF had secretly selected a 'hot country' (you) and a 'cold country' (Canada) in order to trial their nasty globalist economic/social/political mind games?! 

[geordie_lurch]

Found an idea for the T-shirts we can all wear at the Durham meet @DurhamBorn

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I didn't know Uncle Terry had been put under the FCA microscope early May. What's that about?

 

 

No idea, first ive heard of it, mind im nearly out of it now so not too bothered really.

I know terry grew a dodgy beard in lock down so it might be that, cant trust a spiv with a beard.

All i can think is that its 'bucking' the trend has drawn attention to it or maybe there some bent accounting going on, perhaps they found an account worth millions that is owned by 'Mr Neil Woodford', either way ive got my cash, thanks for that uncle terry, and adios.

[HousePriceMania]

Bond yields keep going up

 

How do we play this ?

What do we need to buy and when ?