Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Bond yields keep going up

 

How do we play this ?

What do we need to buy and when ?

I know there are etfs available to short USTs but don't know anything about the UK market. If there's anything available that you can buy with HL then I'd def be interested in just buying some and forgetting them for five years.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I remember posting a picture on HPC about 10 years ago that I made of the future, Tesco Pods like a Japanese capsule hotel. John Lewis/Waitrose leading the way.

 

Good idea for the supermarkets to utilise their property portfolios. However doesn't a supermarket with accommodation above sound weird, or is that just me? And combining commercial and residential spaces is difficult to do in practical terms. Don't the different regs mean each part of the project costs far more than if was done separately?

[HousePriceMania]

War, is peace

 

 

How to insult actual hard working people.

[kibuc]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Re Poland I've been watching a German crime drama, that over here is called Nordic Murders. It's set on a place I'd never heard of called Usedom island. It's looks to have a nice bit of coast. I read it's the sunniest place in either Germany or Poland. Do you know it, any good? Could I get 6% on my savings but have a lower personal inflation rate?

Some banks are offering 7% on 3-month deposits so at least there's that. 6% is widely available.

Uznam is a border island split between Poland and Germany (Cyprus style) and it's popular for its coastline, much less for the weather (northern Poland, lol) but I'm not a big fan of the Baltic sea anyway, it's too crowded. Gower, Pembrokeshire and even Norfolk are a class above in my view.

[Transistor Man]

I watched the Palisades interview with Adam Hamilton the other day.

On gold and mining, he seems very knowledgeable. 

He has all his gold/ mining essays -- looks  like one a month -- going back to 2000 on this website.

https://www.zealllc.com/index.htm 

90s/ BRK look.

[DoINeedOne]

[Pip321]

7 hours ago, Pip321 said:

No very macro I know but a few flashes on the radar today so may go shopping.

i am still in the early stages of building but have filled Abdn and half filled Hargreaves so it’s a choice and just deciding which one looks best ladder opportunity from the following (best of the best)…

Hargreaves….820p

Post Office….280p (interesting)

Vodafone…..124p

Admiral…….2222p

Fres…….760p

ITV…….69p (bit of a ringer I know) 

Other random suggestions welcome…but not maybe not Apple 😆😆

 

Thanks for the replies on this, most appreciated.

I have seemingly done nothing other than added a few to the watch list. The real shares I want have left the harbour (BAT, IMB, BP, Rio, etc) even though some may still have further to go I am happy to watch a little longer

Fres now well within sights and Admiral. Interestingly Jupiter might be a nice add rather than a further HL ladder. Need a couple of soft days on the market then will pick some up. 

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Doing a review of my holdings and just wanted to say thank you for everyone chipping in to this discussion. It has really helped and I am not exaggerating when I say it has been life changing. Portfolio is sitting at an all time high but still have plenty of cash at the side waiting for ladders to get hit.

To help anyone that is new, sent this to my brother:

Hargreaves Landsdown charges a % fee for funds, so dont hold funds with them. Iweb doesnt charge a holding fee for funds, so hold funds with them instead.

If you have a SIPP, hold American stocks in that to save on withholding taxes.

Try to keep big dividend payers in your ISA rather than SIPP - there is not lifetime limit on ISA but inflation keeps bringing that pension lifetime limit down and down

 

A lot of funds have an entry fee that is waived by HL, is it by Iweb? It would be a shame to pay 5% to save 0.45%!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Not gender-specific.

Well done.

I'm now wondering if the word for spastic in French is masculine or feminine. Is spastic the same gender in Spanish as it is in French? The word for table, for example, is masculine in French but feminine in Spanish. Perhaps you only use it in context so le spastico and la spastica are both correct, with les spasticos for a mixed group. I'm definitely not googling this.

Edit: woke could get very messy on the continent.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

We know they are sinking and doing policies that will take on more water, so best to point them towards someoneI  else who can pay for it. It's dog eat dog. I'm trying to knock deckchairs over to trip them up, as they chase me to a lifeboat.

It was easy to get a lifeboat on the Titanic at first.Most refused to get in them because it was too cold and a long way down.They thought it stupid because the ship wouldnt sink,and at worst they would get one in the morning to be ferried to the ships that arrived.The first boats left only half full,one with only about 12 in when they could take 60.Later people tried to make out it was the officers fault,but they tried,the passengers simply wouldnt get in.Some officers also miss-understood the instructions from the captain.He said women and children first,but he meant then men.He didnt mean women and children only and the boats to leave half empty.Bruce Ismay was slated as a coward,the White Star owner for getting into a lifeboat,but again unfair.He helped many onto boats and he only got on when he did because it was the last one,was going down,and there was nobody else there to get in,he didnt take anyones place.

The Titanic sinking,and the couple of hours it took give an incredible insight into human nature when something that cant happen does.

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Good idea for the supermarkets to utilise their property portfolios. However doesn't a supermarket with accommodation above sound weird, or is that just me? And combining commercial and residential spaces is difficult to do in practical terms. Don't the different regs mean each part of the project costs far more than if was done separately?

I think employer's providing their staff with accommodation could become more of a thing. There are existing firms that do it like hotels, cruise ships etc.

[DoINeedOne]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think employer's providing their staff with accommodation could become more of a thing. There are existing firms that do it like hotels, cruise ships etc.

Been doing this for years, but then I'm self employed 

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

les spasticos

What a team they were.

[Phil]

43 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What a team they were.

Great 2 left  feet, shit at long/short throw in’s.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Great 2 left  feet, shit at long/short throw in’s.

But great dribbling.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The Titanic sinking,and the couple of hours it took give an incredible insight into human nature when something that cant happen does.

 

Peoples behaviour this last two years has proven that this has never changed.

Human behaviour is cylindrical which is to our benefit on here of course.

I bet the first people on those boats were the lower class street-wise mothers and children (no benefits back then) in which had to attain a certain amount of life skills through hardship to get by, putting little trust in system. 

We follow that lead here preparing ourselves and families for what’s ahead after having seen the iceberg some way off.

The sheep are oblivious however, focusing on the media machine coverage of the likes of monkey pox, Depp trail, and Russian antics etc. They’re just confused as to why their energy bill and weekly shop keeps going up, whilst they blissfully arrange the chairs on deck. 

[Democorruptcy]

Legal age someone can buy cigarettes should rise by a year every year, review recommends.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Found an idea for the T-shirts we can all wear at the Durham meet @DurhamBorn

https://www.johnsmedley.com/uk/

Durham meet clothes need to be from Smedley's ,you all bought Mosaic,not Zoom 

[Joncrete Cungle]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Legal age someone can buy cigarettes should rise by a year every year, review recommends.

That would destroy the tax take on baccy and create a HUGE black market. All the EE at work smoke none UK duty paid cigs at £3:50 or £4 a pack when the taxed version in the shops is £12 to £14 a pack.

[DurhamBorn]

38 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Peoples behaviour this last two years has proven that has never changed.

Human behaviour is cylindrical which is to our benefit on here of course.

I bet the first people on those boats were the lower class street-wise mothers and children (no benefits back then) in which had to attain a certain amount of life skills through hardship to get by, putting little trust in system. 

We follow that lead here preparing ourselves and families for what’s ahead after having seen the iceberg some way off.

The sheep are oblivious however, focusing on the media machine coverage of the likes of monkey pox, Depp trail, and Russian antics etc. They’re just confused as to why their energy bill and weekly shop keeps going up, whilst they blissfully arrange the chairs on deck. 

The ship got many ice warnings from others in the area who stopped for the night,yet they did nothing,didnt slow down even.They simply didnt think they would hit one,and even if they did it couldnt sink anyway due to the bulk heads.Lifeboat no7 was the first off the Titanic,27 on, room for 65.Everyone on no7 ,first to leave were First Class passengers,there were no 2nd class or steerage on her 100% first class.16 of them were men 11 women.

The crew claimed they would pick people up once lowered by opening doors in the hull and using rope ladders etc,however once down none of the lifeboats did,they simply sailed away.Only one even picked people up from the water.The passengers expected to be simply ferried to another ship and the boats would then return and get more,only the crew knew she was sinking quickly.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The ship got many ice warnings from others in the area who stopped for the night,yet they did nothing,didnt slow down even.They simply didnt think they would hit one,and even if they did it couldnt sink anyway due to the bulk heads.Lifeboat no7 was the first off the Titanic,27 on, room for 65.Everyone on no7 ,first to leave were First Class passengers,there were no 2nd class or steerage on her 100% first class.16 of them were men 11 women.

The crew claimed they would pick people up once lowered by opening doors in the hull and using rope ladders etc,however once down none of the lifeboats did,they simply sailed away.Only one even picked people up from the water.The passengers expected to be simply ferried to another ship and the boats would then return and get more,only the crew knew she was sinking quickly.

Well put.

[Castlevania]

4 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Hit my first ladder into Turkcell & Jupiter is looking a bit unloved.

I’ve been buying Jupiter! Not 100% convinced of them tbh but market cap wise they’re small enough to be a takeover target...

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Good idea for the supermarkets to utilise their property portfolios. However doesn't a supermarket with accommodation above sound weird, or is that just me? And combining commercial and residential spaces is difficult to do in practical terms. Don't the different regs mean each part of the project costs far more than if was done separately?

Tesco have a house building arm. This is one of their developments in Clapham (the ground floor is the supermarket).

 

 

 

[One percent]

On 08/06/2022 at 19:34, Harley said:

Get a Harley, get a badge.....

I had that as my avatar for a while. 

[One percent]

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Tesco have a house building arm. This is one of their developments in Clapham (the ground floor is the supermarket).

 

 

 

It looks a lot better than the crap they threw up near where i used to live. Had housing built in to it too.