Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Castlevania]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

75k euro

That’s the same as my guess!

Also they use Swedish Krona

[Boon]

Gonna go £80k

Also remember going on Zillow and there seems to be some cheap places in the US if you are happy to live in the sticks.

I don't know if it is an effect only in some countries but cheap properties in the UK seem to be in the northern towns, densely packed with others. Once you start shopping for something with space, ie detached, large plot, they get expensive even in the cheaper areas.

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I've mentioned it before but I have to laugh at Swedish property prices being considered high. Stockholm is comparable to London but almost everywhere else is astoundingly cheap.

 

When I tell Swedes how much houses are here they refuse to believe me.

 

Anyone care to guess how much this 4 bed bungalow in large plot with garage and workshop is?

 

Think of it as being like a really shit pub quiz 

Depending on location £45k to £1.4m. I am guessing £52,500. 😉

[ThoughtCriminal]

Well I know you're all on the edge of your seats 😂

 

, drumroll............

 

£27000

 

That's not a typo, twenty seven thousand of your English pounds.

 

Would be well north of 500k in North Yorkshire which is where I know.

 

Triple glazed and comes with all white goods included too.

 

But not a Swedish model, sadly..........

 

Nothing we don't already know, but  another reminder of how brutally we get fucked in blighty.

 

 

 

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

£27000

Not only are you getting the land for free, you are pretty much getting the structure for the cost of roughly a decades' maintenance. 

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I've mentioned it before but I have to laugh at Swedish property prices being considered high. Stockholm is comparable to London but almost everywhere else is astoundingly cheap.

 

When I tell Swedes how much houses are here they refuse to believe me.

 

Anyone care to guess how much this 4 bed bungalow in large plot with garage and workshop is?

 

Think of it as being like a really shit pub quiz 

When my friend lived and worked in Sweeden circa 15 years ago you could buy a nice 3 bed modest house in the sticks with 7 to 15 acres of land / forest and a barn and couple of outbuildings for something like £55k to £65k.  Yet young Sweedes complained property was expensive

[ThoughtCriminal]

36 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Not only are you getting the land for free, you are pretty much getting the structure for the cost of roughly a decades' maintenance. 

Interesting way of looking at it. I hadn't considered it like that.

[Noallegiance]

Errrrr......aaaaaahhh.....hmmmmmm

Total shot in the dark.....

£27k?

[ThoughtCriminal]

13 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Errrrr......aaaaaahhh.....hmmmmmm

Total shot in the dark.....

£27k?

You sir are a genius! 😂

[Pip321]

23 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Raoul Pal does actual macro, and actually aligns with a lot of thread discussions:

 

It’s interesting you spotted this because I was listening to him a few days ago and he does seem to be a macro guy with a wide outlook and understanding.

For context it was Raoul who originally convinced me NOT to invest in crypto because he said he was absolutely 100%, totally, utterly into Bitcoin and Crypto. Indeed he had to cash it in each month to pay for his bills and food. Then later in the interview he mentioned at least 4 properties he owned. That made me realise HIS BUSINESSES AND OTHER PEOPLES MONEY was 100% into BTC etc…..but he was protected with massive assets outside the crypto and digital system. So if his business holdings collapse he might lose the usual billions but will still be more wealthy that 99.9% of the rest of us because of other assets.

Okay, so that said I heard him talking about macros, debt, interest rates, trends and he was very consistent with this thread. The main difference of opinion is his faith in BTC….but even then his more recent interview he spoke of it as a hedge (I get that, human sentiment etc) rather than something real and better than all other investments. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

PM and Chancellor unified in announcing ‘single biggest tax cut in a decade’ 

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/pm-chancellor-unified-announcing-single-055812812.html

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Funny cos it's true 

[Joncrete Cungle]

11 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

PM and Chancellor unified in announcing ‘single biggest tax cut in a decade’ 

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/pm-chancellor-unified-announcing-single-055812812.html

 

More spending + less taxing = printy printy to fill the hole? Or will fiscal drag on everything else make up enough of the reduction in NI and general inflating away of existing debt to pull it off without sterling dropping / inflation accelerating?

Or are they preparing to follow the FED when they as expected pivot?

[Axeman123]

@Pip321 exactly, his advice is fine for people like him but deadly to 20 year olds flipping burgers. An intelligent man like him must know his crypto content is overwhelmingly reaching the latter group, and it isn't even like he needs the money. A quick google tells us he is ex-Goldman Sachs, retired at 36, and lives on Grand Cayman (famous for having no income taxes!).

As an example of the disconnect: I saw one of his 1 hour+ interviews on another channel* a while ago, where he was breezily mentioning most people he knows on Grand Cayman have ten million dollars or more in assets and that, regardless of whether they are primarily real estate or hedge fund guys, they are all building cash positions but not liquidating wholesale. This was the kid interviewing him, and presumably a good proxy for the typical audience member:

*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS7Q1wTuS_Y

 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 02/07/2022 at 13:38, Funn3r said:

I have moved my cash ISA to HL Stocks&Shares ISA. 

Now I want to do something about my crap works pension by moving it into a SIPP.

I like HL so far - is it reasonable (from an eggs in one basket perspective) to open the SIPP also at HL, or do people typically choose somewhere else? 

I have my SIPP, ISA and LISA in different places. You need to for the FCA protection if you get near the £85k limit. Even if you don't hold that much I think it's better to have them in different places just in case.

[Plan-b]

28 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

PM and Chancellor unified in announcing ‘single biggest tax cut in a decade’ 

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/pm-chancellor-unified-announcing-single-055812812.html

 

Wow were saved, £6.35 a week; Cheers then

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Or are they preparing to follow the FED when they as expected pivot?

Lagging behind the fed in starting would mean lagging behind in stopping, you would think. 

With the pound where it is the best way to bring energy costs down would be to hike past a fed pivot, but with our circus multiverse government who knows...

[ThoughtCriminal]

Phase 2 of "reality hitting you in the fucking face" about to begin

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Phase 2 of "reality hitting you in the fucking face" about to begin

As it should, Russia should completely de-dollarise their economy as should the BRICS etc. No targetted nation should trust that currency ever again, such has been the destruction of trust by weaponising it to seize FX reserves.

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

As it should, Russia should completely de-dollarise their economy as should the BRICS etc. No targetted nation should trust that currency ever again, such has been the destruction of trust by weaponising it to seize FX reserves.

With the possibility of Iran Argentina, and the Saudi's joining the BRICS and the alternative SWIFT payments system.

Its heightened the possibility of war.

Not good for anyone 

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

As it should, Russia should completely de-dollarise their economy as should the BRICS etc. No targetted nation should trust that currency ever again, such has been the destruction of trust by weaponising it to seize FX reserves.

Absolutely

 

I STILL think that barely anyone in the West is grasping what's happening and what the implications are.

 

But if history teaches us anything it's that this is a constant. The bias to think "ever was it thus and ever shall it be" is hardwired.

[Errol]

32 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

As it should, Russia should completely de-dollarise their economy as should the BRICS 

Don't worry, they are. There will be no return to the world that existed prior to February 2022. I hope the West has made adequate preparations for this.

[feed]

Whilst there is definitely a shift away from the USD.  It's far from over.   

[JMD]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'll see if any others are bored enough to have a guess before I reveal. It is a Sunday after all lol

(If not too late) Well you gave us a clue and wrote 'astonishingly cheap'... so basing my answer on that info. I will guess £100k?

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

More spending + less taxing = printy printy to fill the hole? Or will fiscal drag on everything else make up enough of the reduction in NI and general inflating away of existing debt to pull it off without sterling dropping / inflation accelerating?

Or are they preparing to follow the FED when they as expected pivot?

I expect higher NIC rates for those in full time employment and frozen tax allowances up to 2026 mean that fiscal drag will more than cover the supposed giveaway.