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Will the Big Kahuna event occur in 2022?


Spiney Norman
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Bobthebuilder
58 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hopefully wasnt an american school.

It may well have been.

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7 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I honestly no longer worry about it, I put regular money into what I think are reputable, good companies (or funds) and leave it at that. My conclusion is nobody has a fucking clue so just drip it in over your lifetime on a monthly basis.

 

I kind of agree, but we have seen what happened with the taper tantrum in 2018 or whenever it was ... should 2022 be the taper tantrum the FED don't back down from (when they raise rates and end QE) then it would appear a stock market crash of significant proportions is highly likely.

Though i have to convince myself of that as over half my funds missed the 2020 crash.

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Spiney Norman
11 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I honestly no longer worry about it, I put regular money into what I think are reputable, good companies (or funds) and leave it at that. My conclusion is nobody has a fucking clue so just drip it in over your lifetime on a monthly basis.

Yep thats my conclusion as well.

12 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

FWIW on the Big Kahuna I welcome it immaterial of when I make investments or what I have investments in. The system is so fucked I actually stand to benefit (being in my 30s) from a total collapse and everything (including my own assets) being wiped to zero. So bring it on.

I'm in my 50's and I could be fucked.

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SillyBilly
Just now, Spiney Norman said:

Yep thats my conclusion as well.

I'm in my 50's and I could be fucked.

Yes, I appreciate the outlook changes dependent on age. I fancy a big tear up because I have enough time to recover from it and back myself against the vast majority of UK PLC (no skills, no work ethic) to work my way out of it. If I was in my 50s or older, I'd be pretty worried and very cautious about what to do.

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SillyBilly
5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I kind of agree, but we have seen what happened with the taper tantrum in 2018 or whenever it was ... should 2022 be the taper tantrum the FED don't back down from (when they raise rates and end QE) then it would appear a stock market crash of significant proportions is highly likely.

Though i have to convince myself of that as over half my funds missed the 2020 crash.

The fundamentals are so out-of-whack the event should have happened years ago. We're basically guessing when the final "loss of confidence" happens, the loss of confidence in everything. My last best guess was late 2015. So I am 7 years out at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if it was this year or 2030.

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2 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

The fundamentals are so out-of-whack the event should have happened years ago. We're basically guessing when the final "loss of confidence" happens, the loss of confidence in everything. My last best guess was late 2015. So I am 7 years out at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if it was this year or 2030.

But the event didnt happen years ago as inflation wasn't out of control and they hadn't just dropped several trillion in helicopter money.

The stars do seem to be aligning for it with the fed raising interest rates and ending QE in the coming months, but maybe 2020 was the BK and all we get a "buy the dip" moments from here on in.

If the BK doesn't happen soon i shall write it off also, though i have dripped in 10k or more in recent months.

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desertorchid
54 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I honestly no longer worry about it, I put regular money into what I think are reputable, good companies (or funds) and leave it at that. My conclusion is nobody has a fucking clue so just drip it in over your lifetime on a monthly basis.

FWIW on the Big Kahuna I welcome it immaterial of when I make investments or what I have investments in. The system is so fucked I actually stand to benefit (being in my 30s) from a total collapse and everything (including my own assets) being wiped to zero. So bring it on.

I am 20 years older than you and been doing exactly that for the duration/ although focusing on mostly yielding stocks. On balance, it is the most stress free and simple way to manage the emotional side of investing. Just accept there will be times your portfolio looks like a bomb crater, as happened in 2008/9.

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Joncrete Cungle
2 hours ago, Spiney Norman said:

Why do you expect this?

I think a BK is probable, but i'm looking for reasons to reinforce my Belief.

NASDAQ being held up by 5 big (overrated & over valued stocks in my opinion) names. Earnings per share out of kilter. The whole thing to me is being propped up by ZIRP, feverish speculation and money printing. BK might come in 2022 or it might not, either way I am ready. If I am wrong I will use some of the cash to put in solar on the house and pay a bit off the mortgage. 

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lovelyboy

If I was a U.S. investor I'd be worried but UK markets look reasonably priced.

Current PE Ratio...

FTSE 100                 17.71
FTSE 250                22.57
FTSE All Share        14.39
S&P 500                  29.33
DJIA                         22.76
NASDAQ                 39.63

While I accept PE ratio isn't the only measure of value, I'm still reasonably confident that FTSE 100 and All Share are fairly priced by historical standards. UK markets are not immune to a correction in the U.S. but any fall should be smaller and would recover sooner imo.

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Lightscribe

In a short answer to the original question yes. As stated on here, I nailed my colours to the mast by saying end of 2021, I thought Evergrande fallout would blow before the end of the year and it would be the catalyst.

I still think that it may well come from there, it’s just a question at this point of how long Beijing can keep a lid on it. I think it’s becoming more apparent the wheels are coming off the wagon with the order to demolish a 39 buildings of a nearly completed development on an island within 10 days.

https://amp.ft.com/content/fc49ae99-9fe5-494e-a2ae-a05be25eb309
 

534F13D7-DCEF-41DC-80D7-2681F89C1A7F.jpeg.c25eff1fd5ffe80150d71329df1ec79e.jpeg

4CA449B4-3D96-46E6-9904-8B89D6EB61BB.jpeg.0a6d363301c7c0975838cb0261cdc757.jpeg

But however the far more worrying thing is the blackout by the Fed in regards to the repo payments to the banks when it went all tits up pre-covid in 2019 which only now coming to light.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/01/theres-a-news-blackout-on-the-feds-naming-of-the-banks-that-got-its-emergency-repo-loans-some-journalists-appear-to-be-under-gag-orders/

Based on data from the New York Fed

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/OMO_transaction_data.html#rrp

So all in all, I’ve had my estimate that it would be end of 2021.

I may have underestimated how long they can drag this shitshow on for and I may be a few months out, but I certainly can’t see past early 2022.

 

 

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reformed nice guy

I think there are a lot more people on edge along with a lot more catalysts for kicking off - especially inflation and extra especially energy price inflation.

The big kahuna itself will be a black swan, otherwise the craft sorts will have "priced it in". Something like North Korea joining with south for example.... or the other way? Who knows, but guessing WHEN it happens is impossible like others say.

Edited by reformed nice guy
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2 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

The big kahuna itself will be a black swan, otherwise the craft sorts will have "priced it in".

My understanding of the so called gurus on the video i posted earlier, is the BK happens when the markets realise QE and ZIRP aren't coming back, thus for all intents and purposes free market capitalism returns.

So the markets know whats coming, but they don't believe whats coming is the "new normal" i.e no more QE/ZIRP, hence its the latter part thats not priced in.

Edited by Hancock
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goldbug9999
On 03/01/2022 at 21:09, Hancock said:

... the fed raising interest rates and ending QE in the coming months

Not going to happen (IMO), or if it does it will quickly be reversed. The Fed is just talking up rates to create uncertainty and to try and dampen the runaway speculation at least temporarily. Theyve done it before, not sure why anyone thinks its different this time round.

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Green Devil
1 minute ago, goldbug9999 said:

Not going to happen (IMO), or if it does it will quickly be reversed

If you had a money printer would YOU turn it off. No you wouldnt. Neither will TPTB.

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goldbug9999
On 04/01/2022 at 13:34, Hancock said:

... for all intents and purposes free market capitalism returns.

As if ..

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goldbug9999
3 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

If you had a money printer would YOU turn it off. No you wouldnt. Neither will TPTB.

The last leader of a developed economy who had the balls the reset everything and ride out the unpopularity was Thatcher. 

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goldbug9999

Nice discussion of interest rates, inflation, BK, $ reset, bitcoin and gold etc. For bonus points the hostess has spectacular norks:

 

Edited by goldbug9999
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Bus Stop Boxer
On 03/01/2022 at 20:57, SillyBilly said:

Yes, I appreciate the outlook changes dependent on age. I fancy a big tear up because I have enough time to recover from it and back myself against the vast majority of UK PLC (no skills, no work ethic) to work my way out of it. If I was in my 50s or older, I'd be pretty worried and very cautious about what to do.

I've sold my house recently, and was about to plunge cash stash and proceeds in to a new detached place.

Instead i've opted for a (decent enough) semi, and held on to Delingpoles "fuck off money". Not a fortune but will allow for modestly funded work avoidance for a good while.

Sideways move with less maintenance, and more facilities. Only costing me £8k to get out of dodge.

I'm a bit gutted as at 55, this would have been the last big move to a place in its own plot etc etc. But much of that is ego driven at the end of the day. Staying as unencumbered as possible by creeping fascism, has quickly shot to the top of the tree.

I'd be more gutted not being able to work and function due to lacking the clotshot pass, and then worrying about money.

I was ill a fair bit in my 20s with bad ear problems, and always resolved to save like a bastard to insulate against any shit coming down the pike. Ears are fine now.

Now its the government.

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

Nice discussion of interest rates, inflation, BK, $ reset, bitcoin and gold etc. For bonus points the hostess has spectacular norks:

 

And a strange voice. I dont know how these old fellas she interviews manage to concentrate.

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On 03/01/2022 at 19:38, spongeh said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58317263

Smoking surge in young during Covid lockdown
The number of 18 to 34-year-olds who classed themselves as smokers increased by a quarter, from 21.5% to 26.8%, says Cancer Research UK.

Ok I have BAT shares and I'm enjoying the dividend, but it's still a bit of an evil investment. At least I can justify my BP & Shell shares, while they're semi evil they will/are investing in green tech now.

 

 

But cigarettes don't cause cancer, they just increase its likelihood if you have the genome mutations for it...and what about the beneficial aspect of relieving stress and the damage that may cause?...like most things the issue is the level of consumption, and so the same argument could be used for overconsumption of many things i.e. meat, sugar, processed foods etc

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On 03/01/2022 at 20:20, Green Devil said:

As for those gold goons, if youd kept your money in gold youd be way behind the pack than anyone who put it in either housing, stocks or crypto

But is that not the point, gold is not an investment and shouldn't be viewed as such...its more like 'insurance'/a store of wealth....come back in 50 years and gold will still be this, can the same be said for housing, stocks or crypto?...it 'depends'!....

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On 04/01/2022 at 00:08, lovelyboy said:

If I was a U.S. investor I'd be worried but UK markets look reasonably priced.

Current PE Ratio...

FTSE 100                 17.71
FTSE 250                22.57
FTSE All Share        14.39
S&P 500                  29.33
DJIA                         22.76
NASDAQ                 39.63

While I accept PE ratio isn't the only measure of value, I'm still reasonably confident that FTSE 100 and All Share are fairly priced by historical standards. UK markets are not immune to a correction in the U.S. but any fall should be smaller and would recover sooner imo.

I agree in part be be very cautious in such an interpretation as the composition of these indices are very different, and so PE [as with other metrics] can vary dramatically between sectors.

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haroldshand

Just make your choices knowing this

1. Inflation is out of control(regardless of what the BOE says)

2. Interests rate rises will rise but will be token tiny gesture rises.

3. The UK is hellbent of a immigration led population explosion of 100 million people(maybe as short as 15 years from now)

4. Cash is being de-valued by the day

5. Debt will never stop rising(personal and public)

6. The Tories are totally shit, saying that everything will get twice as bad as listed if Labour gain power

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18 hours ago, haroldshand said:

 

6. The Tories are totally shit, saying that everything will get twice as bad as listed if Labour gain power

Really! OMG.. 

12 years of Tories 

 

40'000 less nurses 

50'000 less doctors 

Less gps 

500% increase in privatisation of NHS

22'000 less police 

700 less police stations 

23'500 less back of house police staff 

50% cut to council budgets 

Courts closed

7000 less firemen 

Hospitals closed or downgraded 

1.5 trillion stolen.. massive tax increases for the workers, tax cuts for the rich.. 

 

You would have to be mad to vote Tory. 

 

97% of all rapists don't go to prison.. Because the police don't have the resources to investigate.. 

 

Tory Trade deal with India.. free movement of people to be included to drive down wages and living stadards.. 

Labour would have to try really hard to be worse than these corrupt sacks of evil shit!

I'm voting lib dem coz I can't stand SIR Starma.. but still.. 

Edited by macca
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Axeman123
1 hour ago, macca said:

97% of all rapists don't go to prison.. Because the police don't have the resources to investigate.. 

What % of "rapists" never raped anyone? The drive to increase reporting and recording of such horrible crimes was always going to lower the % that a jury would convict on, and hence the % the CPS will proceed with. Hurt feelings/bad ettiquete afterwards/thwarted expectations of a relationship/regret/slut-shaming etc don't retro-actively make a man a beast.

1 hour ago, macca said:

Tory Trade deal with India.. free movement of people to be included to drive down wages and living stadards.. 

There may be some in the Tories that would want that, but Nigel keeps them honest! That makes the Tories a uniquely controllable party of government for the electorate.

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haroldshand
6 hours ago, macca said:

Really! OMG.. 

12 years of Tories 

 

40'000 less nurses 

50'000 less doctors 

Less gps 

500% increase in privatisation of NHS

22'000 less police 

700 less police stations 

23'500 less back of house police staff 

50% cut to council budgets 

Courts closed

7000 less firemen 

Hospitals closed or downgraded 

1.5 trillion stolen.. massive tax increases for the workers, tax cuts for the rich.. 

 

You would have to be mad to vote Tory. 

 

97% of all rapists don't go to prison.. Because the police don't have the resources to investigate.. 

 

Tory Trade deal with India.. free movement of people to be included to drive down wages and living stadards.. 

Labour would have to try really hard to be worse than these corrupt sacks of evil shit!

I'm voting lib dem coz I can't stand SIR Starma.. but still.. 

Yep I agree and I think it's probably even worse than you think..

But will I vote Lib Dem or Labour, 100% no

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