Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[ThoughtCriminal]

I don't have DBs macro knowledge and I don't have Harley's TA ability, but when people ask me why I'm so certain that America is coming to the end of its hegemony it's because countries who take 48 days to remove a ship from underneath a metal column, and resort to explosives to do so, don't have long left at the top.

 

 

[manservantjerkins]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I don't have DBs macro knowledge and I don't have Harley's TA ability, but when people ask me why I'm so certain that America is coming to the end of its hegemony it's because countries who take 48 days to remove a ship from underneath a metal column, and resort to explosives to do so, don't have long left at the top.

 

 

They need some Indians in flip flops with gas torches 

[stoobs]

1 hour ago, No One said:

Yeah i get that. 

But my point was not on legalease but on he trend that they honoured these mistakes up until inflation hit. o they are under orders to change a practice thats been going on for years now. A sign of the decline.

Long ago British Gas discovered that they'd been billing based on a cubic feet meter when they'd replaced it with a cubic metre meter (?) years before. Hence a huge catch-up bill. I argued for several hours on the phone that they'd already billed me (and I'd paid) so it was their problem. Eventually they gave in and deleted the catch-up charge.

[Ash4781b]

3 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Wage growth still at 6% flies in the face of Bailey's  Dovish proclamations. I'm beginning to doubt we will even get the sub 2% for April CPI the chump  ( Bailey)is predicting, be it a fall before a rise back towards 3%.

The weird thing is they will cut this Summer. A tad dangerous since it will prove the 2% target is an absolute lie after suffering 5% average CPI now for 4 long years. What faith in fiat then?

National Living Wage April 24 increase is in the next one. No idea where the average growth will go. Although I think can see a bit of the National Living wage increase in prior years. 7% ? . It would be funny if it went to 8% or hit record? Employers maintaining differential. When’s the rate cut coming? 

[No One]

21 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

tell that to BOJ

[Long time lurking]

7 minutes ago, No One said:

tell that to BOJ

IMO she was referring to the Fed intervention  "$50 billion a week if need be " or words to those effects the BOJ achieved nada the Fed words stabilised it ,hence Chinas threats

Her initial response to that threat 

 

 

Edited May 14 by Long time lurking

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I don't have DBs macro knowledge and I don't have Harley's TA ability, but when people ask me why I'm so certain that America is coming to the end of its hegemony it's because countries who take 48 days to remove a ship from underneath a metal column, and resort to explosives to do so, don't have long left at the top.

 

 

They should have used drones.

[Axeman123]

45 minutes ago, manservantjerkins said:

They need some Indians in flip flops with gas torches 

or some pikeys that just want the bridge to weigh in for scrap...

[goldbug9999]

45 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Long ago British Gas discovered that they'd been billing based on a cubic feet meter when they'd replaced it with a cubic metre meter (?) years before. Hence a huge catch-up bill. I argued for several hours on the phone that they'd already billed me (and I'd paid) so it was their problem. Eventually they gave in and deleted the catch-up charge.

Energy companies are only allowed to back bill by one year. Worth knowing for future reference.

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I don't have DBs macro knowledge and I don't have Harley's TA ability, but when people ask me why I'm so certain that America is coming to the end of its hegemony it's because countries who take 48 days to remove a ship from underneath a metal column, and resort to explosives to do so, don't have long left at the top.

 

 

Things are moving along ,there are psyops going on from both sides below might be part of "the game" but it`s openly being discussed now 

IMO no side is going to reveal what cards it really holds until it`s all ready to go 

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240513/de-dollarization-bombshell-the-coming-of-brics-decentralized-monetary-ecosystem-1118409748.html

 

[Long time lurking]

 

Edited May 14 by Long time lurking

[sleepwello'nights]

17 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Gaslighting on a Olympic level ,i lasted 5 minuets ,see how long you can last 

 

Got as far as 1 min 17 sec. He says "the dangers facing our country are real"

Can't listen any more as I doubt he will say our biggest danger is our politicians. I might persevere.

[Axeman123]

Markets shrugging off PPI numbers so far, silver up and approaching $29 for example.

[JMD]

On 13/05/2024 at 10:05, working woman said:

Boomers and Gen X know. Hiroshima nuclear fall-out regularly shown on TV when I was a child. Lived through the Cold War with the constant worry of a nuclear bomb landing on our heads,  Chenobyl fall-out etc.

My husbands late Grand Dad, lived through both WWs said the best anyone could hope for from their Government was that they would not take the country to war. 

Everything else pales into insignificance compared to the threat of being sent off to war.

Maybe the making of arms will be the re-industrialisation that is talked about on here. 

Why can't we all live together in peace?

Yes the elder generations were realists and knew the score. Actually, my own grandparents used to use that same phrase... 'the best hope is that our government don't take the country to war'. 

Scary thing is that the younger generation have done a 180 and naively believe 'Big Government' can solve problems!!

Edited May 14 by JMD

[DoINeedOne]

Spain sale approved, €2bn share buyback to begin
 
 
Vodafone Group Plc ("Vodafone") announces today that the sale of Vodafone Spain to Zegona Communications plc ("Zegona")1 has received final approval from the Spanish authorities. The sale is expected to complete at the end of May 2024, at which point Vodafone will receive €4.1 billion in cash (subject to customary closing adjustments) and €0.9 billion in the form of Redeemable Preference Shares.

As a result, Vodafone now intends to commence an initial €500 million share buyback programme on 15 May 2024, as part of our plans to return €2.0 billion over 12 months.

Notes
1.     The selling entity is Vodafone Europe B.V. which is a 100% owned subsidiary of Vodafone Group Plc. The buying entity is Zegona Bidco, S.L.U. which is a 100% owned subsidiary of Zegona Communications plc.

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Markets shrugging off PPI numbers so far, silver up and approaching $29 for example.

 

[Long time lurking]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I don't have DBs macro knowledge and I don't have Harley's TA ability, but when people ask me why I'm so certain that America is coming to the end of its hegemony it's because countries who take 48 days to remove a ship from underneath a metal column, and resort to explosives to do so, don't have long left at the top.

 

 

They really get shit done 

[janch]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Spain sale approved, €2bn share buyback to begin
 
 
Vodafone Group Plc ("Vodafone") announces today that the sale of Vodafone Spain to Zegona Communications plc ("Zegona")1 has received final approval from the Spanish authorities. The sale is expected to complete at the end of May 2024, at which point Vodafone will receive €4.1 billion in cash (subject to customary closing adjustments) and €0.9 billion in the form of Redeemable Preference Shares.

As a result, Vodafone now intends to commence an initial €500 million share buyback programme on 15 May 2024, as part of our plans to return €2.0 billion over 12 months.

Notes
1.     The selling entity is Vodafone Europe B.V. which is a 100% owned subsidiary of Vodafone Group Plc. The buying entity is Zegona Bidco, S.L.U. which is a 100% owned subsidiary of Zegona Communications plc.

Both VOD and BT are on the up.  I hope it lasts as we've waited long enough

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Spain sale approved, €2bn share buyback to begin
 
 
Vodafone Group Plc ("Vodafone") announces today that the sale of Vodafone Spain to Zegona Communications plc ("Zegona")1 has received final approval from the Spanish authorities. The sale is expected to complete at the end of May 2024, at which point Vodafone will receive €4.1 billion in cash (subject to customary closing adjustments) and €0.9 billion in the form of Redeemable Preference Shares.

As a result, Vodafone now intends to commence an initial €500 million share buyback programme on 15 May 2024, as part of our plans to return €2.0 billion over 12 months.

Notes
1.     The selling entity is Vodafone Europe B.V. which is a 100% owned subsidiary of Vodafone Group Plc. The buying entity is Zegona Bidco, S.L.U. which is a 100% owned subsidiary of Zegona Communications plc.

Likely they will do another £2bill next year once Italy goes as well and about £5 bill off the debt.Debt should be £25bill after the transactions with a free cash flow of around £3bill,still a weak position.Divi bill will be down to less than a bill though,so they should be able to de-leverage without any more corporate action by 9% a year so IF they dont cock up anymore they should move to divi increases,within two years.I think the problems with VOD is the managers think 2.5x  debt to EBITDA is fine,but i dont think it is.The debt to free cash is around 8x.VODs debt profile is as good as you will see,well spread with good rates,but i would say the C suite have done a terrible job over the last decade when £13bill EBITDA only returns £3bill net cash.Im still around 20% down on them on a big holding when counting divs,but against inflation around 36% down,easily my worst holding.However,IF they can see EBITDA growth and if they can get a grip of CAPEX and OPEX and de-lever below £20bill they should deliver in the end.You get the feeling though the CEO is avoiding using all the sale proceeds for de-leverage because its likely only the debt thats stopped them being bought out.Once the two sales and 3 merger complete though you get the feeling they are a sitting duck for a £1 a share takeover offer.

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, janch said:

Both VOD and BT are on the up.  I hope it lasts as we've waited long enough

I got lucky on BT,i bought a big holding at £1 during the COVID lows and sold them near £1.90 and bought them back at £1.13.Its thanks to that,Turkcell double,50+ on the Brazil telcos that the sector has still been ok for me.TEF has also returned 35% over 3 years,not setting the world on fire,but good enough.My main worry with them all now is governments and regulators.The compaies have spunked shareholder capital into building modern telcos networks for countries and at some point should see falling Capex and stable Opex,then fast increasing divis etc unless governments decide fat Shaz should see the return instead of the owners.

[Long time lurking]

 

[MightyTharg]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

As a result, Vodafone now intends to commence an initial €500 million share buyback programme on 15 May 2024, as part of our plans to return €2.0 billion over 12 months.

 

Why do that if they are a bazillion pounds in debt? Seems silly.

[janch]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I got lucky on BT,i bought a big holding at £1 during the COVID lows and sold them near £1.90 and bought them back at £1.13

I've also been in and out of BT and made a profit.  I went in again in July 23 at around £1.21 hoping for a repeat.

[DurhamBorn]

49 minutes ago, MightyTharg said:

Why do that if they are a bazillion pounds in debt? Seems silly.

Even with the divi cut,divi 5%,lots of debt fixed at 3%,so better to buy back shares.I agree with you though,but i suspect they are trying to sort the business out etc before someone launches a hostile bid.Bid debt,less shares will put off bidders.I suspect if the debt was £20bill we would see a takeover move.

[DurhamBorn]

PGMs catching a bid today ,the market will be seeing Anglo maybe floating off its PGM business as very bullish for the basket price longer term.You could argue Anglo is saying they do not want to invest capital in SA.It could also see more action in the sector.Very unlikely Impala or Sibanye could afford to buy AAP,even as a joint bid,but a fully independent AAP might try to consolidate the industry itself.You start to understand why Froneman was happy to keep the US business though even loss making.If a big BRIC miner or group buys out AAP you could have a situation where the west loses access to PGMs,or faces competing for metals in big deficits at spot.There is a very real chance PGMs go into a huge bull market in a few years.