Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Democorruptcy]

24 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Even more impressive over three years.

Could Help to Buy be working against them a bit? They rely on older people selling larger houses to downsize to M&S flats. Lots of younger people are selling their existing house and buying a larger HTB new build instead of an old house, so less demand for larger houses. Plus banks are more willing to lend against HTB houses due to the 20% or 40% governbankment bail out. I know M&S do some sort of part exchange.

[harp]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Gordon Bennett ...the pound is collapsing - intra day low 1.31500 !

Anyone here short it when it did a double top @ round 1.43000 ?

I should of dusted down my IG acc...PROBLEM is I've been burnt to MANY times ha

Oh F*** the chart looks extremely bearish...(I was hopping for it to go back to 1.43 area!)

 

Well I bought £10k of USD when it hit 1.42 ish on the back of what DB said at the time. Happy so far, just a little punt thanks to DB. So far with certain shares etc I'm way up, but slightly guilt of over trading selling high and buying back in. Bought Drax, Go ahead and sold both for very good profit. Reinvested into miners HMY and SBGL (Harmony and Sibanye).

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, harp said:

Well I bought £10k of USD when it hit 1.42 ish on the back of what DB said at the time. Happy so far, just a little punt thanks to DB. So far with certain shares etc I'm way up, but slightly guilt of over trading selling high and buying back in. Bought Drax, Go ahead and sold both for very good profit. Reinvested into miners HMY and SBGL (Harmony and Sibanye).

If gold runs it will be like the end of the movie Trading Places where we are all sat on a beach ,hopefully with a 1983 double of Jamie Lee Curtis.

[harp]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

If gold runs it will be like the end of the movie Trading Places where we are all sat on a beach ,hopefully with a 1983 double of Jamie Lee Curtis.

I know you hate going abroad DB. Do they have any decent beaches in Durham?

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, harp said:

I know you hate going abroad DB. Do they have any decent beaches in Durham?

Actually we do,we have a fantastic coast,im only 14 miles from the sea.Lots of industry around the Boro,but still some lovely spots north of there.Travel up to Northumberland an hour away and amazing coast around Bamburgh.Saying that i had a roll in the Dunes with a bird years ago in Redcar and took me ages to get the grey dust off my skin.

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Actually we do,we have a fantastic coast,im only 14 miles from the sea.Lots of industry around the Boro,but still some lovely spots north of there.Travel up to Northumberland an hour away and amazing coast around Bamburgh.Saying that i had a roll in the Dunes with a bird years ago in Redcar and took me ages to get the grey dust off my skin.

grey dust?  got to be better than trying to get sand out from behind your foreskin.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, leonardratso said:

grey dust?  got to be better than trying to get sand out from behind your foreskin.

Yeah,but its just under the nuclear power station,though likely from the steel works.Didnt glow anyway.

[leonardratso]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yeah,but its just under the nuclear power station,though likely from the steel works.Didnt glow anyway.

you old romantic, you know how to show a  girl a good time. cheapskate.

hehehehe.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Actually we do,we have a fantastic coast,im only 14 miles from the sea.Lots of industry around the Boro,but still some lovely spots north of there.Travel up to Northumberland an hour away and amazing coast around Bamburgh.Saying that i had a roll in the Dunes with a bird years ago in Redcar and took me ages to get the grey dust off my skin.

I love Redcar- look to the right and it's beautiful...look to the left and there's an ugly powerplant putting out god-knows-what into the skies! 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I love Redcar- look to the right and it's beautiful...look to the left and there's an ugly powerplant putting out god-knows-what into the skies! 

Yeah two extremes.South to Whitby,north to Boro.

[Majorpain]

3 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I've read page after page and gone to site after site to get my head round the whole investment/markets etc business.

Your response is brief, to the point and no doubt said with your reading of the situation. 

Why didn't I come to you earlier?! Hee hee.

 

2 hours ago, BearyBear said:

This thread is about long term cycles, who cares about a few days slightly up or down.

You can spot in the chart where things changed at the recent high, I think this cycle should have ended in 2016, instead more money was pumped into the system to keep things afloat.  As Sancho has mentioned, that makes for twice the pain as even things that should have been sorted soon after 2008 are still hanging around. 

This cycle hasnt got the nickname of the "everything bubble" for nothing...

[Thorn]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yeah two extremes.South to Whitby,north to Boro.

The US Masters golf course apparently has a neighbouring lovely nuclear power station too.

Here- wonder if they will be needing anything off Cameco. They've gone up nicely for me. Cheers DB. 

Really interesting journey so far - glad to have got back the IBTL...fells safer. 

Are we still expecting the pms and gold/silver to go up a bit more then all crash with everything..?

[Alifelessbinary]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Agreed on the UK builders.I posted something,here or on ToS about the Berkeley boys offloading £8mn over the last year.And that was before their spammer hit the thread telling us how bright Pidgeley is.Yep,they're that switched on their net sellers of their own stock.

Sancho I wasn't intending to spam this thread with praise for Pidgley, but was rather sharing my ' edge' in the sector. By being net sellers of their own stock the directors are showing that  they know the game is up. They called the top of the central London market about 3 years ago and have divested away from the high end foreign pre-sold flats to sites that can be converted into HA stock to ensure survival.

Chart analysis is a fantastic tool but I've always found that it is useful to combine it with discussions with decision makers in the industry where possible. If you follow the money it is clear that some of the house builders know the worlds is changing.

Your recent charts on gold miners were extremely eye opening and something that I'm now exploring seriously.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Thorn said:

The US Masters golf course apparently has a neighbouring lovely nuclear power station too.

Here- wonder if they will be needing anything off Cameco. They've gone up nicely for me. Cheers DB. 

Really interesting journey so far - glad to have got back the IBTL...fells safer. 

Are we still expecting the pms and gold/silver to go up a bit more then all crash with everything..?

Probably,but im not writing off a gold and silver bull gets going and keeps going though.The reason iv done no work on currency lately is because its been all on the PM sector.Im starting to lean towards holding the miners and riding any downside as im seeing potential for 20 x in many of the stocks (some will probably 100 bag).Keeping a balance of course in other areas.Im more and more convinced we are going to see one of,if not the biggest PM bull in history.I know that sounds hyperbole,but its what we keep seeing from cross market work.Lets see if things get going or not.

IBTL has done a great job so far and exactly what it was meant to do,protect us sterling investors from losing buying power.Up 10% while Vodaphone ( im buying) is down 15%.Switch now its 25% more Vod for my money,thats what its about.

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

2 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

it is clear that some of the house builders know the worlds is changing

I bet they do.  I worked for one in 2008.  With hindsight, and knowledge of how they were arranging their affairs, I'd say they were either remarkably lucky, or had some foresight of the thing "no-one saw coming."  Considering what was at stake for them, and the extent of their preparations... I don't think it was just luck. 
I'd say they got some

first class macro advice from somewhere.

[darkmarket]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/20/britain-investment-revolution-labour-party

John McDonnell delivers the reflation policy:

..."This country suffers the lowest rate of investment in the G7. Our infrastructure – the essential networks of transport, utilities and telecommunications – is creaking under the strain, and suffering from decades of privatised mismanagement. On technology, we are falling even further behind... Real wages remain lower than they were eight years ago. Yet amid the public squalor and worsening conditions for the many, there are huge new investments in luxury flats and, at least in parts of London, extraordinary private wealth."

..."The team’s final report is published today, and proposes fundamental shifts in how our financial system is organised. Reform of the Bank of England’s mandate is at its centre. It should retain operational independence, but – more than two decades after this was granted it is time to reassess its guiding principles. – Turner’s team have recommended that alongside the Bank’s existing inflation target it should set a 3% target for productivity growth."

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

IBTL has done a great job so far and exactly what it was meant to do,protect us sterling investors from losing buying power.Up 10% while Vodaphone ( im buying) is down 15%.Switch now its 25% more Vod for my money,thats what its about.

 

What do you think of the Vodafone purchase of Liberty Global and the CEO leaving?

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/20/britain-investment-revolution-labour-party

John McDonnell delivers the reflation policy:

..."This country suffers the lowest rate of investment in the G7. Our infrastructure – the essential networks of transport, utilities and telecommunications – is creaking under the strain, and suffering from decades of privatised mismanagement. On technology, we are falling even further behind... Real wages remain lower than they were eight years ago. Yet amid the public squalor and worsening conditions for the many, there are huge new investments in luxury flats and, at least in parts of London, extraordinary private wealth."

..."The team’s final report is published today, and proposes fundamental shifts in how our financial system is organised. Reform of the Bank of England’s mandate is at its centre. It should retain operational independence, but – more than two decades after this was granted it is time to reassess its guiding principles. – Turner’s team have recommended that alongside the Bank’s existing inflation target it should set a 3% target for productivity growth."

The new MPC member appointed last month is a productivity expert. He replaces Ian McCafferty who was the most hawkish member. It's funny that, how the most hawkish member is always the one that's due to leave next.

[darkmarket]

21 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The new MPC member appointed last month is a productivity expert. He replaces Ian McCafferty who was the most hawkish member. It's funny that, how the most hawkish member is always the one that's due to leave next.

His views on intangibles might not be popular here either.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

What do you think of the Vodafone purchase of Liberty Global and the CEO leaving?

I think its fine.I pay more interest to how new their network is and at what rate they have their bonds at (and duration).Inflation will see to it that bond holders built the equity owners a very cheap network.Telcos will have some headwinds as interest rates rise,like an increasing interest burden as they re-finance,but free cash flow should grow so fast that they can start to clear those debts as they roll off.

Governments need telcos to invest,to do so they will off them much better regulated returns etc.With depreciation stable and prices rising free cash should explode higher over the cycle.

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

His views on intangibles might not be popular here either.

Yes,he is already 100% wrong.The reason it looks like we havent needed capital is because we have imported everything.We have used technology more and "brains".Thats what a disinflation cycle does.No return on capital you find other ways and dont bother to invest.Thats why at the end you get wages flat,productivity terrible etc.The backbone of the economy cant produce the consumption.Once the £ falls thats a direct cut to living standards.

The next cycle will see that reverse.He thinks its low inflation forever,low capital investment,high brain power going forward.Wrong.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/20/britain-investment-revolution-labour-party

John McDonnell delivers the reflation policy:

..."This country suffers the lowest rate of investment in the G7. Our infrastructure – the essential networks of transport, utilities and telecommunications – is creaking under the strain, and suffering from decades of privatised mismanagement. On technology, we are falling even further behind... Real wages remain lower than they were eight years ago. Yet amid the public squalor and worsening conditions for the many, there are huge new investments in luxury flats and, at least in parts of London, extraordinary private wealth."

..."The team’s final report is published today, and proposes fundamental shifts in how our financial system is organised. Reform of the Bank of England’s mandate is at its centre. It should retain operational independence, but – more than two decades after this was granted it is time to reassess its guiding principles. – Turner’s team have recommended that alongside the Bank’s existing inflation target it should set a 3% target for productivity growth."

Labour are right on this,but hopefully it wont be them delivering it due to their wanting to bring back into public ownership.That would be a disaster.

[Democorruptcy]

27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its fine.I pay more interest to how new their network is and at what rate they have their bonds at (and duration).Inflation will see to it that bond holders built the equity owners a very cheap network.Telcos will have some headwinds as interest rates rise,like an increasing interest burden as they re-finance,but free cash flow should grow so fast that they can start to clear those debts as they roll off.

Governments need telcos to invest,to do so they will off them much better regulated returns etc.With depreciation stable and prices rising free cash should explode higher over the cycle.

OK thanks.

I wondered what you thought because you seem negative on Europe and expect consumers to be tapped out. I suppose it depends how they finance it and what sort of deal they are allowed to push pass the regulators. They are going to own a lot of Germany's network.

[Game_of_Homes]

@DurhamBorn, how likely do you think the price of silver will be manipulated in the same way the gold price has?

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

OK thanks.

I wondered what you thought because you seem negative on Europe and expect consumers to be tapped out. I suppose it depends how they finance it and what sort of deal they are allowed to push pass the regulators. They are going to own a lot of Germany's network.

Consumers will be,they wont be buying as many trampolines from China,they wont get rid of their phone though and the costs will probably rise with inflation,while the telcos depreciation stays level.Capital companies tend to have between 5 and 10 years before depreciation runs through,thats the window in a reflation where cash flow shoots up.