Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, Banned said:

Its over what timescale, my kids 8 now and still no crash in sight.

Like the article how it states insane bubble no.1 is the benchmark!

Almost like the globalists and their MSM propaganda machine are all singing off the identical hymn sheet

Its been freaskish but the end is in sight.

Most housing is held by people. Most people die by 90.

Whats happened is that the baby boomers have been double dipping in propery - already own their OO, buy  1+ BTL.

(And it was mainly the 40+ of 2002ish) who were buying BTLs).

So, 45 YO of 2002 is now 61.

50 YO of 2002 is now 66.

60YO of 2002 is now 76.

7OYO of 2002 is now probably dead.

In a 10 year prediod, 50% of age 65 and above die.

In a lot of towns thers already a huge overhang of OO property reaching probate.

Chuck in BTL and theres way too much of poeprty concetred in the over 50s.

Theres the extra dynamic that the pensioners of 5 years time will be DC pensioers rather than DB pensioners.

Mix that with massive skills shortages where people are refusing to move to expensive palces to work - either awage doubles or houses halve.

And massive structural change in employment in London/Se - collapse of high payign finance jobs

 

 

[Band]

40 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Its been freaskish but the end is in sight.

Most housing is held by people. Most people die by 90.

Whats happened is that the baby boomers have been double dipping in propery - already own their OO, buy  1+ BTL.

(And it was mainly the 40+ of 2002ish) who were buying BTLs).

So, 45 YO of 2002 is now 61.

50 YO of 2002 is now 66.

60YO of 2002 is now 76.

7OYO of 2002 is now probably dead.

In a 10 year prediod, 50% of age 65 and above die.

In a lot of towns thers already a huge overhang of OO property reaching probate.

Chuck in BTL and theres way too much of poeprty concetred in the over 50s.

Theres the extra dynamic that the pensioners of 5 years time will be DC pensioers rather than DB pensioners.

Mix that with massive skills shortages where people are refusing to move to expensive palces to work - either awage doubles or houses halve.

And massive structural change in employment in London/Se - collapse of high payign finance jobs

 

 

Triffic so ive just got to wait for a generation of people to die.

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, Banned said:

Triffic so ive just got to wait for a generation of people to die.

How old are your kids?

Under 15 theyll be fine.

[Band]

11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

How old are your kids?

Under 15 theyll be fine.

Its to house the kid now. 

Above you state BTL with be 8% shortly, the market seems to disagree with you.
https://www.which.co.uk/news/2018/10/buy-to-let-mortgage-rates-hit-an-all-time-low-thanks-to-market-slump/

Think the local gypo at the fair will be better at predicting than the HPC massive. In 2011 when prices didnt crash it was going to be MMR, then when prices rose it was section 24, with lots in between and after and none of these wonderful niche schemes that the enlightened know about have done anything for making house prices affordable with wages.

 

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Italy is going to blow the Euro apart?

When it goes pop, the CBs will need to reduce rates and splurge liquidity all over the place.

No.

Theyll have to raise them - risk premium.

[Viceroy]

Dow in Dollars v Euro - Capital Flows

By: Marty Armstrong

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.

Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.

 

 

Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Banned said:

Its over what timescale, my kids 8 now and still no crash in sight.

Like the article how it states insane bubble no.1 is the benchmark!

Almost like the globalists and their MSM propaganda machine are all singing off the identical hymn sheet

I think Wolf's US charts are excellent and his coverage of specific areas is top drawer.You can really see in places like Denver that the second bubble will destroy far hands than the last one did.I think things will be well on the way by the time your 6 year old leaves school,and possibly a lot sooner.You have to trade what you see,but I think we're seeing the first signs of housing winter in both the hot money areas of the UK and the USA.

 

I monitor-for my sins-houses with price changes in Leicestershire  variety of reasons 1) smallish sample size 2) any directional market changes are easily apparent 3) the demographic that owns them will generally be more ready to move on price-focus on the word generally 4) top end traditionally drops first..Over last 3 days 5/16 price drops. Not massive but steady as she goes.

 

 

 

[Band]

Just now, sancho panza said:

I think Wolf's US charts are excellent and his coverage of specific areas is top drawer.You can really see in places like Denver that the second bubble will destroy far hands than the last one did.I think things will be well on the way by the time your 6 year old leaves school,and possibly a lot sooner.You have to trade what you see,but I think we're seeing the first signs of housing winter in both the hot money areas of the UK and the USA.

 

I monitor-for my sins-houses with price changes in Leicestershire  variety of reasons 1) smallish sample size 2) any directional market changes are easily apparent 3) the demographic that owns them will generally be more ready to move on price-focus on the word generally 4) top end traditionally drops first..Over last 3 days 5/16 price drops. Not massive but steady as she goes.

 

 

 

I couldnt really care less about prices in 8 years time .. kids 8. She needs somewhere settled to live now.

Going through an entire childhood without a settled house is a disgrace, and a failing on my part despite the fact ive saved what should be enough to buy a house outright.

Difference between the USA and here is they had a crash, we never really did, hence prices should be coming down here first and fall further.

 

[sancho panza]

 

Just now, Banned said:

I couldnt really care less about prices in 8 years time .. kids 8. She needs somewhere settled to live now.

Going through an entire childhood without a settled house is a disgrace, and a failing on my part despite the fact ive saved what should be enough to buy a house outright.

Difference between the USA and here is they had a crash, we never really did, hence prices should be coming down here first and fall further.

 

I don't think it's a failing on your part at all.You've shown a lot of good sense and done what you beleived to be right.This market has been tampered with to shaft people like you,and that's hard to take.

I agree with you on security of tenure.It is a disgrace.We live in rented ourselves out of choice (could buy but don't want to pay £300k for a 3 bed semi in a future warzone like Leicester.)

We have kids too and the problems changing schools/nurseries can be a headache if there aren't many rentals around.Things are worse if you're renting on 6 or 7% gross yield but then if you have a deposit,buying might be an option.

We rent on a 3% gross yield and to be fair I wouldn't buy the place unless it was on an 8% or 9% gross yield.

Whilst it's hard to see the positives there are plenty.

1) area goes to shit,1 month's notice and you move.I have friends who have abandoned rusting cars on the front of the house to their left,they'll never be able to sell and the occupants are pretty nast ypeople.Me and Mrs P won't ever have that problem for more than a month

2 ) you have a chance to do something more productive with your savings.I'm intent on building a portfolio of stocks with the dividend income to cover the rent-entirely possible given rental yields are circa 3%

3) the house gets a bit run down,you can move.,

 

Please don't bite my head.If security of tenure is your top priority then nothing I've said can help.For us it's not.

[Band]

29 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

2 ) you have a chance to do something more productive with your savings.I'm intent on building a portfolio of stocks with the dividend income to cover the rent-entirely possible given rental yields are circa 3%

Choice isnt really open to me, i can no longer work in the job im trained for due to being a single parent, hence i cant pay the rent with wages and ive too much saved to get housing benefit. I was sure houses would have been affordable by 2019 FFS its surreal that 2007 prices look like a bargain, when wages are similar.

Im seeing prices falls of 10% from kite flying  prices but anything such as a 3 bed semi with a garage attached at 280k will be snapped up in no time, i need that type of place to come down to 225k then i'll but the bullet get a small mortgage put the place in a trust for my kid so ive no assets then seek revenge on the fuckers. Little victories as Norman Stanley Fletcher used to say.

But stability is priority as the mother does all she can to destabilse the kid .... on the bright side i can splash a grand of my deposit cash on a long weekend to Disney Paris this Xmas.

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, Banned said:

Choice isnt really open to me, i can no longer work in the job im trained for due to being a single parent, hence i cant pay the rent with wages and ive too much saved to get housing benefit. I was sure houses would have been affordable by 2019 FFS its surreal that 2007 prices look like a bargain, when wages are similar.

Im seeing prices falls of 10% from kite flying  prices but anything such as a 3 bed semi with a garage attached at 280k will be snapped up in no time, i need that type of place to come down to 225k then i'll but the bullet get a small mortgage put the place in a trust for my kid so ive no assets then seek revenge on the fuckers. Little victories as Norman Stanley Fletcher used to say.

This countries got some warped ways of rewarding the frugal and careful.

In Liecester average wage is crica £20k average house in LE2 is £200k.Gof igure how that's happened.

For me,I've opted out and taken the best path we can.This country stopped being a fair place for workers many years ago.The 1% do well and those who can milk the benefits system do well,for everyone else,life is edgier.

[Band]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This countries got some warped ways of rewarding the frugal and careful.

In Liecester average wage is crica £20k average house in LE2 is £200k.Gof igure how that's happened.

For me,I've opted out and taken the best path we can.This country stopped being a fair place for workers many years ago.The 1% do well and those who can milk the benefits system do well,for everyone else,life is edgier.

That is true and there seems no end to it.

Irony is if id not bothered working the last 6 years, id have got a council house several years go... id need a 50k mortgage to buy such a place even with my vast savings.

People mock and belittle those that play the benefit system, in reality they're not so stupid after all.

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Banned said:

Its to house the kid now. 

Above you state BTL with be 8% shortly, the market seems to disagree with you.
https://www.which.co.uk/news/2018/10/buy-to-let-mortgage-rates-hit-an-all-time-low-thanks-to-market-slump/

Think the local gypo at the fair will be better at predicting than the HPC massive. In 2011 when prices didnt crash it was going to be MMR, then when prices rose it was section 24, with lots in between and after and none of these wonderful niche schemes that the enlightened know about have done anything for making house prices affordable with wages.

 

i take it your down south

[King Penda]

41 minutes ago, Banned said:

That is true and there seems no end to it.

Irony is if id not bothered working the last 6 years, id have got a council house several years go... id need a 50k mortgage to buy such a place even with my vast savings.

People mock and belittle those that play the benefit system, in reality they're not so stupid after all.

no they aint stupid,my lad will end up buying a 4 bed semi via his mothers right to buy for 60k tops.the rent at the moment is around 440.he has the deposit but wont make the comitment.my x his mum is well pissed off has she is expecting to live there until she dies for a peppercorn amount.i said well he is giveing u 250 a month board and he is 6 months in front with it lol...ie she wanted to go abroad so he paid sevral months upfront.he simply doesnt give a fuck i know he has at least 10k deposit and is in no rush.

[sancho panza]

26 minutes ago, Banned said:

That is true and there seems no end to it.

Irony is if id not bothered working the last 6 years, id have got a council house several years go... id need a 50k mortgage to buy such a place even with my vast savings.

People mock and belittle those that play the benefit system, in reality they're not so stupid after all.

Absolutely not.Some of the hardest up I know have two parents working full time.

[King Penda]

32 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely not.Some of the hardest up I know have two parents working full time.

i agree its a fucked up system,take my on -off girlfriend the one thats just had a kid with another bloke .ok lets look at this logicaly,i could kick the lodger out and move her in she will get maintanence from him i wont have to give her maintanence and i loose 220 from the lodger.im 20 quid down has i give her 200.but she would be around 1700 down at least from the state never mind my 200.then she could have a claim on my house and id have to give her money....am i going to do this ?

or just visit her now and again and continue to live at my house and she can visit me ,perfectly legaly.i keep my independance and house and she wont even want maintanence aparently ,she knows i wont ever get married nor let her move in and there is no sword of damiclies above my head.unless she realy goes batshit crazy obviesly.so riddle me this what insentive is there to live together ? none.

[sancho panza]

5 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

i agree its a fucked up system,take my on -off girlfriend the one thats just had a kid with another bloke .ok lets look at this logicaly,i could kick the lodger out and move her in she will get maintanence from him i wont have to give her maintanence and i loose 220 from the lodger.im 20 quid down has i give her 200.but she would be around 1700 down at least from the state never mind my 200.then she could have a claim on my house and id have to give her money....am i going to do this ?

or just visit her now and again and continue to live at my house and she can visit me ,perfectly legaly.i keep my independance and house and she wont even want maintanence aparently ,she knows i wont ever get married nor let her move in and there is no sword of damiclies above my head.unless she realy goes batshit crazy obviesly.so riddle me this what insentive is there to live together ? none.

There's none,the welfare state or rather the bloated size of it,is one of the main reasons this country has suzha chunky fiscal deficit.They're crowing about reducing it to £35bn

[King Penda]

48 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely not.Some of the hardest up I know have two parents working full time.

totaly agree

[King Penda]

35 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

There's none,the welfare state or rather the bloated size of it,is one of the main reasons this country has suzha chunky fiscal deficit.They're crowing about reducing it to £35bn

and once the kids leave home its all reduced by a hell of a lot,its quite funny at some of the messages i get from female friends on facebook sniffing around once they cant get any benis for them.and trust me its like shooting fish in a barrel on the dateing sites on the internet.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This countries got some warped ways of rewarding the frugal and careful.

In Liecester average wage is crica £20k average house in LE2 is £200k.Gof igure how that's happened.

For me,I've opted out and taken the best path we can.This country stopped being a fair place for workers many years ago.The 1% do well and those who can milk the benefits system do well,for everyone else,life is edgier.

BoE's only 15% of mortgages can be greater than 4.5x household (not single) income.

[MrXxx]

9 hours ago, Banned said:

That is true and there seems no end to it.

Irony is if id not bothered working the last 6 years, id have got a council house several years go... id need a 50k mortgage to buy such a place even with my vast savings.

People mock and belittle those that play the benefit system, in reality they're not so stupid after all.

No, people do not `mock and belittle those who play the benefits system`, if anything now it appears to be a ` badge of honour` that is flaunted hence why we have this absurd disparity between those that do, and the `fools` who work to survive and support themselves independently.

[Band]

 

1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

No, people do not `mock and belittle those who play the benefits system`, if anything now it appears to be a ` badge of honour` that is flaunted hence why we have this absurd disparity between those that do, and the `fools` who work to survive and support themselves independently.

Ive got to disagree about the "badge of honour" comment.

The state gave made it so there is no alternative to "playing the system" in many cases,   if i was able to buy a house at a mere 7 times average UK salary, thus having no rent to pay, id only need to earn about 15k a year to live off, whilst not being rich itd be enough. But the state has decided 2 generations should not be allowed to have reasonably price accommodation and must rent from the banks/BTLers.

Half the nation are in receipt of taxpayer funded benefits , cant see 50% of  people being proud to have to ask the state for money.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/half-britons-dependent-state-high/

[Bricks & Mortar]

Has anyone looked at Scotgold?  A Scottish goldmine.  No production yet, but gained planning approval last week, and claims to have funding in place to be producing in 12 months.  Share price been on a wee run up recently.

This twitter feed shows something of whats happening on site.  https://twitter.com/GrahamScotgold

[UmBongo]

It's the 1st Thursday of the month. Is there going to be a decision by the BoE on interest rates today? 

[SpectrumFX]

It's a good day to be holding BT shares.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/cc997184-dda9-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c