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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

my old fellah, gawd rest is soul, was a turbo charger/damper guy for holset, which i believe merged or was bought out by cummins some time in the 80's/90's.

He was made redundant and retired off from there, then afetr that all manufacturing went to china and UK became just testing and quality control, hed be glad were he still alive to hear the manufacturing esp engineering is coming home again.

What goes around comes around i suppose.

Still part of Cummins Holset and in Huddersfield ,still world leaders in turbo's etc.They are about to get back into tractor engines etc as well and build them in Darlington.Its part of what im doing,they have done a lot of work on the engine blocks so they can handle the torque needed for agricultural work.If i was foreign competitors id be very worried,the new engines will be best in class and clean up i expect.JCB are already using them in their agricultural side.Lots more coming back to the UK as well.My friend is helping a company making TVs in the UK,and he has just finished a project for a company now making washers and looking at cookers.It will take a while,but supply chains will slowly build up again.Lots of factory jobs appearing near me now.£10 an hour a lot of them,but given you can get a decent terrace for £60k a couple working can have a nice life.

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52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Still part of Cummins Holset and in Huddersfield ,still world leaders in turbo's etc.They are about to get back into tractor engines etc as well and build them in Darlington.Its part of what im doing,they have done a lot of work on the engine blocks so they can handle the torque needed for agricultural work.If i was foreign competitors id be very worried,the new engines will be best in class and clean up i expect.JCB are already using them in their agricultural side.Lots more coming back to the UK as well.My friend is helping a company making TVs in the UK,and he has just finished a project for a company now making washers and looking at cookers.It will take a while,but supply chains will slowly build up again.Lots of factory jobs appearing near me now.£10 an hour a lot of them,but given you can get a decent terrace for £60k a couple working can have a nice life.

jcb have there own engine development they will build there own in time i suspect,i presume the engines you meantion are in the fast trak

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3 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

jcb have there own engine development they will build there own in time i suspect,i presume the engines you meantion are in the fast trak

They build engines themselves already,but cant meet the laws for the higher end stuff,they get all those from Cummins and always will,they are way behind.They tried to get a price cut or they threatened to make their own on others,Cummins said bye bye see you when you come back.They did after they couldnt build them.They got a nice price increase when they came back as well.No equipment maker can make their own engines going forward for anything other than basic mechanical stuff..Every Komatsu engine is Cummins as well and most of the Japanese makers of plant are now getting their engines from Darlington.VDL bus in Holland,their engines are from Darlo.You have Case etc still make their own,but for how much longer on any scale is the question.

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6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They build engines themselves already,but cant meet the laws for the higher end stuff,they get all those from Cummins and always will,they are way behind.They tried to get a price cut or they threatened to make their own on others,Cummins said bye bye see you when you come back.They did after they couldnt build them.They got a nice price increase when they came back as well.No equipment maker can make their own engines going forward for anything other than basic mechanical stuff..Every Komatsu engine is Cummins as well and most of the Japanese makers of plant are now getting their engines from Darlington.VDL bus in Holland,their engines are from Darlo.You have Case etc still make their own,but for how much longer on any scale is the question.

i think the latest fastracks use yank engines,the only reason they even started building them was because a previouse supplier was prone to strikes.im going back to the late 70s early 80s.im glad to see an english producer makeing something others cant.

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14 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

i think the latest fastracks use yank engines,the only reason they even started building them was because a previouse supplier was prone to strikes.im going back to the late 70s early 80s.im glad to see an english producer makeing something others cant.

Kohler Lombardini?

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3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

GVC up 13% so far today ahead the FOBT parliamentary vote on Monday

 

 

 

That’s because they’ll save £672m on the Ladbrokes purchase price if the max stake gets cut to £2.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

They build engines themselves already,but cant meet the laws for the higher end stuff,they get all those from Cummins and always will,they are way behind.They tried to get a price cut or they threatened to make their own on others,Cummins said bye bye see you when you come back.They did after they couldnt build them.They got a nice price increase when they came back as well.No equipment maker can make their own engines going forward for anything other than basic mechanical stuff..Every Komatsu engine is Cummins as well and most of the Japanese makers of plant are now getting their engines from Darlington.VDL bus in Holland,their engines are from Darlo.You have Case etc still make their own,but for how much longer on any scale is the question.

yeah, we lived in halifax back then and he worked out of halifax and huddersfield.

Funny you should mention jcb wanting stuff cheap, i remember him telling me back in the 80's that volvo were threatening to go elsewhere for their turbos because they considered holset to be expensive, hahaha, holset told them to piss off then, they were back within the year because the cheap turbos were costing them a fortune as they kept blowing up and having to to be replaced under warranty. I know they did a lot of big engine stuff, boats, trucks, trains, basically anything. Our cellar was chock full of expensive vanadium spanners and high end tools that he'd erm borrowed from work, plus run out fandrives and a mountain of mis-machined turbos, bearings, housings, a hell of a lot of decent metal and machine parts that could be repurposed, He was well paid and got a decent pension and redundancy package out of them, but he was there nearly 40 years. Some of his work colleagues at his funeral did say it was a decent enough place to work and they were very skilled, but were priced out by cheap labour and shit products mainly from china in the end.

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

yeah, we lived in halifax back then and he worked out of halifax and huddersfield.

Funny you should mention jcb wanting stuff cheap, i remember him telling me back in the 80's that volvo were threatening to go elsewhere for their turbos because they considered holset to be expensive, hahaha, holset told them to piss off then, they were back within the year because the cheap turbos were costing them a fortune as they kept blowing up and having to to be replaced under warranty. I know they did a lot of big engine stuff, boats, trucks, trains, basically anything. Our cellar was chock full of expensive vanadium spanners and high end tools that he'd erm borrowed from work, plus run out fandrives and a mountain of mis-machined turbos, bearings, housings, a hell of a lot of decent metal and machine parts that could be repurposed, He was well paid and got a decent pension and redundancy package out of them, but he was there nearly 40 years. Some of his work colleagues at his funeral did say it was a decent enough place to work and they were very skilled, but were priced out by cheap labour and shit products mainly from china in the end.

Theres no such thing as cheap, skilled labout. Not for long anyway.

The only time ive seen a large level of cheap labour was in the early to mid 90s when the ussr fell to bits and the techocrat class poured out.

They are no longer cheap. Ive been offered an expensive trip to estonia, to see how id like to live there.

Slovakia, and the countries within a few 100k of western europe, as it was, are more expensive - and productive - than spain and portugal.

Go a few more 100k and they are drunk and useless.

China? Gone now. Massive population fall. Got at least one revolution to go through.

India? Pop needs to fall 50% so you can work out tge productive ones.

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres no such thing as cheap, skilled labour. Not for long anyway.

Where I work we have lots of builders, carpenters etc from all over the world! 

Only thing is hardly any of them are skilled labour! They turn up on day 1 as labourers, shifting wood, metal, rubbish.. etc 

after a year their using a hammer,, after 2 years their a carpenter..

We have degraded our own young and imported needed so called “skilled labour”

But so called skilled Labour is basically an apprenticeship.. People actually must think the whole of Europe is full of qualified builders.. 

Truth is if they all go back home after 10 years of learning on the job they might be right! 

And we have taught hardly any of our own! 

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8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Look at this.

Neither japan or china have migrant labour

http://digg.com/video/top-10-countries-by-gdp-1960-2017

What a fab video, GDP by country as a horse race, you can see the years tick by, the positions change, why we were tempted to join the EEC as a money making club, the recessions and the Chinese horse on anabolic steroids .

 

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51 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I'll be watching the SPX movement closely over the next few days. 50 day average moved below the 200 one. Bit of a head and shoulders pattern and lower than the start of the year. 

 

sc (1).png

Santa Rally cancelled methinks. Fed move on the 19th already factored in.

Edited by Sideysid

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On 14/12/2018 at 17:12, stokiescum said:

i think the latest fastracks use yank engines,the only reason they even started building them was because a previouse supplier was prone to strikes.im going back to the late 70s early 80s.im glad to see an english producer makeing something others cant.

Ive looked at making an ICE.

With a lathe and milling machine, and hours n hours of whittling you can make one. But its more likely to be shit.

A good ICE needs skilled engineering, luck and a bit of magic. The engineering science is well short of 100%

Its why, when they hit on the a magic design, they only tweak it.

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45 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Ive looked at making an ICE.

With a lathe and milling machine, and hours n hours of whittling you can make one. But its more likely to be shit.

A good ICE needs skilled engineering, luck and a bit of magic. The engineering science is well short of 100%

Its why, when they hit on the a magic design, they only tweak it.

Quite.  I've always been interested in engine design flow.  An interesting example is the Austin seven engine, which was developed by Austin from 1922, developed for years (albeit with some serious development, like changing from 3- to 5-bearing for the crankshaft), then taken over by Reliant, given an ohv conversion in the 60's, then stayed in production (by Reliant) until 2002 or so -- 80 years of production of what was essentially the same fundamental engine design.

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54 minutes ago, dgul said:

Quite.  I've always been interested in engine design flow.  An interesting example is the Austin seven engine, which was developed by Austin from 1922, developed for years (albeit with some serious development, like changing from 3- to 5-bearing for the crankshaft), then taken over by Reliant, given an ohv conversion in the 60's, then stayed in production (by Reliant) until 2002 or so -- 80 years of production of what was essentially the same fundamental engine design.

You back 100 years, to era of static engines - threshers, pump whatnot. Every slack jawed yokel with a lathe was having a go.

These were simple designs that still work today - i love the static engine bit of the dorset steam fair. Its great.

Whittle away and even *you* can make in engine.

Its more likely to be shit, under powered, inefficient, fail over time etcetcetc.

Most of the smaller car companies have been burnt on engine development. Thats why they buy them in from elsewhere.

Once you in the area of of large diesel engines well you can see why cummins is so good.

You could throw billions at engine development and have nothing to show for it. Ive no doubt the chinese are discovering this.

Theres been a few moments of inspired genius. Honda, bmw, renault. Thats it.

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It won't be long before we mourn (or celebrate?) the passing of the internal combustion engine. My current "toy" car has a 3.5L V8 with 5 valves per cylinder and screams to 8.5k revs.  It was the first naturally-aspirated production engine to make more than 100bhp per litre. I love the noise, the peaky power delivery, the smell, the engineering... it's a work of art.  But, the air quality where I live is woeful.  Electric cars have far fewer moving parts, cost buttons to run and distribute the pollution away from towns and cities.  Range and charging speed are getting to the point where I might consider a used one in a few years.  But for thrills, give me petrol and pistons.

Most people who claim to be into cars these days are actually into the gadgets on their cars.  They can't actually drive for shit and couldn't care less what's under the bonnet, as long as it can park itself and play a Spotify stream via their mobile.

Edited by AWW

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@spygirl  Its interesting your saying that the jobs are coming back from China, the industrial production index looks very artificial, I imagine its pure coincidence it keeps steadily growing at around the target area!  However, if it didnt flatline and instead the decline kept going at the same rate from 2009 then YOY it shouldnt be far off negative by my reckoning.

Whatever happens, its a given that China will not grow its GDP at 5-6% for the next 100 years, when they have a recession how will the CCP deal with the consequences of a 30 year build up of debt?  The army training for a working class insurrection wouldnt be a waste of time!

ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-PMI.png?itok=P

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2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

@spygirl  Its interesting your saying that the jobs are coming back from China, the industrial production index looks very artificial, I imagine its pure coincidence it keeps steadily growing at around the target area!  However, if it didnt flatline and instead the decline kept going at the same rate from 2009 then YOY it shouldnt be far off negative by my reckoning.

Whatever happens, its a given that China will not grow its GDP at 5-6% for the next 100 years, when they have a recession how will the CCP deal with the consequences of a 30 year build up of debt?  The army training for a working class insurrection wouldnt be a waste of time!

ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-PMI.png?itok=P

Not a single figure from china should be trusted.

I dont even think theres 1bln popukation. 100m running around, putting fake noses on.....

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1 hour ago, AWW said:

It won't be long before we mourn (or celebrate?) the passing of the internal combustion engine. My current "toy" car has a 3.5L V8 with 5 valves per cylinder and screams to 8.5k revs.  It was the first naturally-aspirated production engine to make more than 100bhp per litre. I love the noise, the peaky power delivery, the smell, the engineering... it's a work of art.  But, the air quality where I live is woeful.  Electric cars have far fewer moving parts, cost buttons to run and distribute the pollution away from towns and cities.  Range and charging speed are getting to the point where I might consider a used one in a few years.  But for thrills, give me petrol and pistons.

Most people who claim to be into cars these days are actually into the gadgets on their cars.  They can't actually drive for shit and couldn't care less what's under the bonnet, as long as it can park itself and play a Spotify stream via their mobile.

Actually, that's something I find rather depressing.  Years ago the typical petrolhead would be buying up an older car, then keeping it going, doing stuff to the engine (fancier carb, camshaft change, etc).  These days most are just buying fancy cars on HP and it's all about how much debt you can take on.  The occasional person interested in 'doing stuff' might rechip (hardly engineering), but otherwise it's cosmetics.  I'm sure it doesn't really make any difference (why is it good to keep an older car going...?), but it just all seems so fake to me.

[Sure, there are people actually into rebuilding and tuning, but it is the minority -- for most it is about buying the M230 not the M220 and dreaming that you could have got the M240.]

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5 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Santa Rally cancelled methinks. Fed move on the 19th already factored in.

Aye - the INDU, SPX, VUSA, VUKE, VFEM and when you look at the DOW components, Verizon, Boeing... all look to be starting to roll over the top of their hills...

I'm out of all of them and expecting a massive drop now. Pretty much just IBTL, GDX look attractive at the moment, as well as some of the pm miners that might just get greener and greener.

Just watched The Big Short again, this time was the first time though with my better half. She suddenly isn't looking at me with that sort of look she had before. 

I'm off to adjust the chinstraps on my tinfoil helmet. 

And build a tinfoil hut for the whole family now under the table. 

 

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