Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

GBPUSD Getting a kicking

Just had the misfortune to watch C4 news witha Remainer trader on saying that you'd be unable to find anyone credible who had a positive view on sterling and a no deal

Incredible where they find these people to push their agenda-not making any point re brexit but rather that the MSM are really poor at reporting anything that runs contrary to their agenda.

Commercials net long ,near 20 yr records ffs.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/B6*0

 

http://cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/cotnote.php

Commitments of Traders – An Explanation The Commitments of Traders charts illustrate the directions in which three different categories of investors believe a given commodity is headed. These three categories (Commercials, Large Speculators and Small Speculators) are based on the following definitions: Commercials (aka hedgers) are people or companies that deal with actual commodities as part of doing business. They trade in those futures as a hedge against the risks they run in the course of that business. Commercials are exempt from position limits and post smaller margins than speculators. Large Speculators are traders whose trading levels are high enough that they require reporting to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). These trading levels vary from one commodity to another, and often from one year to another. Small Speculators are the traders remaining after the Commercials and Large Speculators have been subtracted from the total open interests.

[Bobthebuilder]

I see Harmony is on another run and Yamana is picking up too. Silvers are lagging. I posted a month or so back that i was -14% overall, today thats -5%. Whats the FED gonna do???

[macca]

Does anyone watch Kieser Report on RT?

He was saying that Pension funds are being forced to BUY NEGATIVE yeilding bonds by the government.. They are making our pensions pay for all the toxic debt created by the top 10% By forcing us to pay the government money for its bad debts, from our pensions!

Why do people not wake up!

[DurhamBorn]

As i was saying a while ago,

https://timesofcbd.com/tobacco-kingpin-imperial-brands-invests-over-120-million-into-auxly-cannabis-to-create-vape-products/

"We are particularly excited to partner with Imperial Brands on current and future intellectual property and product development, starting with immediate access to its portfolio of vaping technologies and research and development capabilities"

 

[Starsend]

14 hours ago, Dogtania said:

Just tried to set up some regular investing with my HL sipp into some shares but even though a fair bit of my total portfolio in there is in cash I can only do regular (ie low dealing cost) through funding the account externally from direct debit.

On the other hand aj bell in my Lisa I was able to take advantage of the regular investment with accured cash. 

I've given my feedback to HL regarding this.  I don't have a lot of experience with aj bell but the two times I've contacted them they have been able to answer my query straight away (unlike HL who tend to have to transfer you etc). The mobile aj bell seems to be very well thought out too.

Anyway just having this mini rant here as I know the general consensus is HL are better for hand holding beginners etc.  A friend recently was looking into a sipp and was aware of both companies as options but had heard the same from other people too.  Albeit very limited experience but so far I prefer a j bell.  Very annoying about the cash balance not being able to be used for regular investing.

You can't just buy and sell as you please in their sipp?

[Loki]

Tempted. (Re imperial)

[Dogtania]

20 minutes ago, Starsend said:

You can't just buy and sell as you please in their sipp?

For the regular investing i.e. £1.50? a trade it would have to come from direct debit and not the existing balance even if all cash. 

Not sure about buying funds it may be different but to but individual shares you write have to manually do for £10+ trade which could be fine but would have liked the option to do the cheaper trade with cash locked in my sipp too. 

[Sugarlips]

Any experts have an opinion on this minnow silver miner? It’s suddenly come to life the last few days after years in the doldrums, worth a nibble? (dyor etc, I know!)

https://markets.theaustralian.com.au/shares/SVL/silver-mines-limited

[CVG]

Centrica dividend cut coming up:

Interim results for the period ended
30 June 2019

Iain Conn, Group Chief Executive

"Centrica faced an exceptionally challenging environment in the first half of 2019, which impacted earnings and cash flows. We have also regrettably had to make the decision to rebase the dividend due to our changed circumstances including the UK energy price cap and increased demands on our cash flows, including additional pension contributions. The outlook is more positive for the second half of the year and we expect this momentum to continue into 2020, while we expect to meet our cash flow and net debt targets for 2019.

Today we have announced our intention to exit oil and gas production. This will complete our shift towards the customer, as we focus on our distinctive strengths, with an emphasis on helping our customers transition to a lower carbon future. This major refocusing of our portfolio will unlock further efficiencies enabling us to be even more cost-competitive, as we focus on being a leading Energy Services and Solutions provider."

…..

DIVIDEND AND BALANCE SHEET

· 2019 full year expected dividend rebased to 5.0p per share reflecting changed circumstances, including the UK default tariff price cap, and additional pension deficit contributions and restructuring charges.

[Starsend]

Wowy zowy, CNA at 80, think I'm going to have to buy some now.

IBLT continuing to go nuts at 405.6 this morning. I've made same good dosh on it and reckon it has a lot more legs yet. Essentially institutional investors predicting recession where the FED will smash down interest rates making existing bonds with higher yields jump in price. Entireply predictable when yields invert. Tempted to buy some more.

 

 

10 hours ago, Dogtania said:

For the regular investing i.e. £1.50? a trade it would have to come from direct debit and not the existing balance even if all cash. 

Not sure about buying funds it may be different but to but individual shares you write have to manually do for £10+ trade which could be fine but would have liked the option to do the cheaper trade with cash locked in my sipp too. 

Ah I see. Was a bit concerned there as I've just opened a SIPP with them. Mine will be mostly biggish chunks of money going in on an adhoc basis so not too bothered about paying the higher trading fees.

[kibuc]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

IBLT continuing to go nuts at 405.6 this morning. I've made same good dosh on it and reckon it has a lot more legs yet. Essentially institutional investors predicting recession where the FED will smash down interest rates making existing bonds with higher yields jump in price. Entireply predictable when yields invert. Tempted to buy some more.

I've been mulling over this one for some time but with USD flying so high I'm a bit too worried about fx risk.

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I've been mulling over this one for some time but with USD flying so high I'm a bit too worried about fx risk.

Yes the fx side has obviously been very good up until now. Will the pound strengthen going forwards? Maybe, who knows. Will it offset further gains in bond prices? Hard to tell but yield inversions have been a very reliable indicator of recession a year or two out. Every single time the FED smashes down rates. I reckon the rise in bond prices will easily outweigh any fx fluctuations but just my guess.

[Barnsey]

24 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Wowy zowy, CNA at 80, think I'm going to have to buy some now.

Bit of a shocker right? Excuse my poor maths, but based on todays share price, Dividend yield slashed from almost 15% to just over 6%?

14 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Yes the fx side has obviously been very good up until now. Will the pound strengthen going forwards? Maybe, who knows. Will it offset further gains in bond prices? Hard to tell but yield inversions have been a very reliable indicator of recession a year or two out. Every single time the FED smashes down rates. I reckon the rise in bond prices will easily outweigh any fx fluctuations but just my guess.

I'm very much in the same boat with my angst about this, the dollar milkshake theory could be very real, Gov bonds and dollar rally to come? What other currency are folks going to rush to in coming months? Seems the U.S. as things stand will be last to fall so there could be a window of opportunity here, I also think they are going to smash down rates to 0, possibly later than sooner due to strong current data, tomorrow is certainly the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting in a LONG time. Do they do .25 or .50? Folks looking at the now say nothing needed, folks looking backwards say .50 and another .50 soon.

[sleepwello'nights]

25 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Wowy zowy, CNA at 80, think I'm going to have to buy some now.

 

Investor sentiment is still negative towards them. Do you think their stated strategy to become more customer focussed will work or could they be a takeover target for a major company?

[Barnsey]

20 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I've been mulling over this one for some time but with USD flying so high I'm a bit too worried about fx risk.

Could be some short term pullback in USD if they cut 1/2% tomorrow, but I'm really struggling to see GBP recover considerably over coming months, maybe heads back up to 1.30 region if this full on approach, combined with a couple of Eurozone countries entering recession, somehow delays or leads to alternative discussions. Otherwise, have seen predictions of near parity with dollar, which seems unfathomable, but I don't think team Brexit see a weak £ as a bad thing necessarily, even if the evidence is there to prove it doesn't have the exporting advantage many think.

[Starsend]

8 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Bit of a shocker right? Excuse my poor maths, but based on todays share price, Dividend yield slashed from almost 15% to just over 6%?

I'm very much in the same boat with my angst about this, the dollar milkshake theory could be very real, Gov bonds and dollar rally to come? What other currency are folks going to rush to in coming months? Seems the U.S. as things stand will be last to fall so there could be a window of opportunity here, I also think they are going to smash down rates to 0, possibly later than sooner due to strong current data, tomorrow is certainly the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting in a LONG time. Do they do .25 or .50? Folks looking at the now say nothing needed, folks looking backwards say .50 and another .50 soon.

Very hard to predict any of it. I do think though that the pound will go lower due to more chaos yet to come over Brexit. It has been as low as parity with the dollar before I believe. At some point it will strengthen against the dollar, probably considerably, reckon this is some way off though. The time to sell my bonds will be when the FED has whacked down interest rates and there have been big gains in bond prices.

[Starsend]

10 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Investor sentiment is still negative towards them. Do you think their stated strategy to become more customer focussed will work or could they be a takeover target for a major company?

Investor sentiment always swings too far one way, probably the case here. I honestly don't know what the future is for them, be good to hear DB's thoughts on it. I'm happy to put a smallish chunk of money in though as I think there's a reasonable risk/reward ratio and they're still paying a 6%+ dividend.

[Barnsey]

9 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Very hard to predict any of it. I do think though that the pound will go lower due to more chaos yet to come over Brexit. It has been as low as parity with the dollar before I believe. At some point it will strengthen against the dollar, probably considerably, reckon this is some way off though. The time to sell my bonds will be when the FED has whacked down interest rates and there have been big gains in bond prices.

We'll have a better idea tomorrow but yes I think you're right, the flight to the safety of the U.S. is going to ultimately force them to drop rates hard as the rest of the World crumbles under the weight of the $. Perhaps next year when they've got to 0 and start to resume QE etc, and we're possibly in a more predictable place in the UK with Brexit, it'll be time to sell and perhaps put some gains into metals and miners.

Edit: Just wanted to add that there's a huge amount of economic data being released this week, but so far not looking good. It's always quite amazing how syncronised these downturns are, but it's picking up momentum now, time to be careful. Swedish GDP just went into negative territory, couple more Banks gone bust in China, Japanese numbers consistently surprising to downside. Really not good at all, and several Euro banks (not just Deutsche) looking terminal. Eurozone business climate indicator first negative number since 2013...

[Dogtania]

Banking just seems so negative in general, well consumer banking.  The challenger banks also like revoult, starling and Monzo are valued to the moon.  Can they all succeed?  Pretty sure most have been losing a lot of money being in hyper growth stage.  Guess time will tell.  I understand they don't have the same legacy problems as the incumbents but still...

[Loki]

Anyone else considering just focusing on gold and silver?  Rising tides and all that!

[Bear Hug]

Quite interesting how sportsdirect barely moved but 2 of my larger holdings Fresnillo and Centrica are dropping quite a lot.  Another hard lesson in diversification. 

Saying that, I am buying more.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

Banking just seems so negative in general, well consumer banking.  The challenger banks also like revoult, starling and Monzo are valued to the moon.  Can they all succeed?  Pretty sure most have been losing a lot of money being in hyper growth stage.  Guess time will tell.  I understand they don't have the same legacy problems as the incumbents but still...

After all the shock n awe since UK big bang .... Guess what? Banking just turns out to be a utility, with utility like profits.

Of course leveraging up like a loon is going to end badly. And it did.

 

The new banks are being priced highly as the investors hope (and they might disappointed) that they have their bank office fully automated. My gut feeling is that itll turn out that MB and Revolut and whatnot are all tring to run their backend on javascript.

 

 

 

 

 

[Festival]

Great thread going here that i am learning so much from and am so grateful for that is getting us mentally ready for what lies ahead given the amount of leverage in the financial system. When I have a bit more time I'll post the thoughts of Brian Reynolds. He believes the individual states and mayor public pension schemes in the US are driving the stock market boom there, with its funds chasing a 7% plus return to cover unfund pension liabilities, then flowing into private credit funds who then lend to BBB rated corporations who then buyback their own shares leading to the stock market rising even though the economy and credit quality is deteriorating at the same time. He sees this going on for 3-5 years yet and a further 2 years from the UST 2-10 year yield curve inverting which I dont believe it has yet. Not sure this is my view but the scale of the funds flowing in to the markets via this route (before leverage is applied) in quite something.

 

In the meantime poor old sterling continues its inexorable fall. Looks like a retest of the October 2016 decision (1.21 vs the USD) to define Brexit as leaving the single market and customs union is going on at the moment. Regardless of when the UK actually leaves the EU and what the ultimate benefits are this now feels like a decade long process of uncertainty that the currency will struggle to battle against. Given prolonged uncertainty I'm downgrading my sterling forecast to c 80 cents against both the Euro and Dollar by 2026.  I expect a sharp rally or two along the way as shorts are covered but its hard to see any rally being worth more than 10% or so from these levels. I know this isn't a popular view in the UK but, the period of North Sea oil wealth aside, the UK currency has been falling 1-2 percent or so a year against the major currencies since 1914 and much faster (3-5% a year) during crises.  We need to make and export much more to change this dynamic.

 

 

 

[Dogtania]

31 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

 

The new banks are being priced highly as the investors hope (and they might disappointed) that they have their bank office fully automated. My gut feeling is that itll turn out that MB and Revolut and whatnot are all tring to run their backend on javascript.

 

 

 

 

 

You could be right.  My experience with revoult is despite the bad press it works well.  For example I use the "save the change" feature where a purchase gets rounded up to the nearest pound (then multiplied by X3) and moved into a Japanese yen saving type wallet.  With Lloyds/bos they would take random amounts with seemingly no rhyme or reason.

Definitely don't like that they pester me to spend money in order to gain "perks".  And God help me if I had a problem and needed to contact them.

Was in the pub a few weeks ago and a friend with Monzo signed up from my referral.  Within 5 minutes he had opened an account and used it to buy a drink .. Amazing compared to years ago.  Then he went on trying to enlist other people in order to get some kind of insurance and metal card (think it was something ridiculous like 7 referrals in 48 hours). He missed that week later he was getting paid £7 per referral with friend also paid £7.  He hasn't used apart from funding £10 initially and not sure if other people will use but happy for £7 gratis.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

You could be right.  My experience with revoult is despite the bad press it works well.  For example I use the "save the change" feature where a purchase gets rounded up to the nearest pound (then multiplied by X3) and moved into a Japanese yen saving type wallet.  With Lloyds/bos they would take random amounts with seemingly no rhyme or reason.

Definitely don't like that they pester me to spend money in order to gain "perks".  And God help me if I had a problem and needed to contact them.

Was in the pub a few weeks ago and a friend with Monzo signed up from my referral.  Within 5 minutes he had opened an account and used it to buy a drink .. Amazing compared to years ago.  Then he went on trying to enlist other people in order to get some kind of insurance and metal card (think it was something ridiculous like 7 referrals in 48 hours). He missed that week later he was getting paid £7 per referral with friend also paid £7.  He hasn't used apart from funding £10 initially and not sure if other people will use but happy for £7 gratis.

A metal card would be cool.

I used to have a few premium charge cards, in days when I travelled a lot more. It made sense then, as so much was going thru that the extra costs was worth it. In fact, I think  the extra costs more than paid for themselves a couple of times when stuff went really wrong and the bank conceirge thingy bailed me out.

These days I dont travel so much. And thats intentional. I hate business travelling.

I have two credit cards, only for buying stuff online.

I never ever use a credit card in shops or bars or eateries. Just dont trust them.