Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Interesting today i swapped my dads gas and electric and the 2nd cheapest option within £2 a year was British Gas,and 3rd SSE,with British Gas you also got a years free boiler cover.First time ever iv seen them at the top.I reckon they are about the price settors now.

Im slowly buying stocks i want,and have slowly sold a lot of PMs,they did what i wanted,holding some still,mostly silver miners,but very happy with the 50%+ average return.Slipped up on Sibanye though,was going to put another £8k in near the bottom,but was full up on Harmony and Anglogold and a few Sibanye at the time and didnt want anymore capital exposed to SA.

Iv got lots of ladders still to fill in other stocks,but some have actually bounced off bottom ladder.VOD are up 20% from bottom ladder including div,and RM up 16%.BAT up 25% Imperial up 13%.,others are drifting down.Tough, grinding down bears test the nerves but ladders help smooth it,that is until all ladders are hit and they go down another 30%+,

 

Which is what was predicted hre over the last year.They'd let the small utility retailers go under with their losses and hoover up.CNA down 0.76% today so in the top ten performers on the FTSE 100

Was thinking about taking stake out of our miners but decided not to,as they were 5/10 year purchases unless a clear June 08 moment hits me in the eyes.

Persoanlly think the bottom may be in on Vodafone though.

 

Still a long way to go before most people even recognise this as a bear market,let alone we get a big sell off.Been working hard on our strategy for the next year...sitting in PM miners,buying big oilies/gasr,potash miners,REMX/TAN/CUT componenets on weakness.keeping plenty of cash on the sidleines.

 

Interesting times are looming.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Which is what was predicted hre over the last year.They'd let the small utility retailers go under with their losses and hoover up.CNA down 0.76% today so in the top ten performers on the FTSE 100

Was thinking about taking stake out of our miners but decided not to,as they were 5/10 year purchases unless a clear June 08 moment hits me in the eyes.

Persoanlly think the bottom may be in on Vodafone though.

 

Still a long way to go before most people even recognise this as a bear market,let alone we get a big sell off.Been working hard on our strategy for the next year...sitting in PM miners,buying big oilies/gasr,potash miners,REMX/TAN/CUT componenets on weakness.keeping plenty of cash on the sidleines.

 

Interesting times are looming.

Im very happy with how things have gone.Not perfect of course,but as a whole good.I started selling my old portfolio with BAT above £50 and bought them back at £24.Down on several stocks,but only Centrica has hit all ladders, and gone below by 8%.If i set the ladders right it needs to turn now.Other like VOD got 4 ladders out of 5 (so far) and many other 3 or 4 out of five.If all my ladders hit on the downside the profits iv already locked in on the miners will cover around 20% down on the rest,and if all ladders hit and are all sat on bottom ladder i should be down around 18% after dividends,so very happy with that the PM profits cover it.Of course if they all keep falling then il have losses,but the stocks il own will be down an average of around 70% from highs when i break into a loss.

Im really interested in some big oil as well,but not yet,i think we might see sub $20 in oil so im waiting.Timber i like West Frazer,debt to equity of 23% and they have extended and increased their revolving credit to $850million and 2024 think il start first ladder in them soon,potash iv already started to buy Mosiac,and 2nd ladder gone into K+S AG.Im not buying anything in solar,im buying and keeping silver miners instead to cover that.

[sancho panza]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im very happy with how things have gone.Not perfect of course,but as a whole good.I started selling my old portfolio with BAT above £50 and bought them back at £24.Down on several stocks,but only Centrica has hit all ladders, and gone below by 8%.If i set the ladders right it needs to turn now.Other like VOD got 4 ladders out of 5 (so far) and many other 3 or 4 out of five.If all my ladders hit on the downside the profits iv already locked in on the miners will cover around 20% down on the rest,and if all ladders hit and are all sat on bottom ladder i should be down around 18% after dividends,so very happy with that the PM profits cover it.Of course if they all keep falling then il have losses,but the stocks il own will be down an average of around 70% from highs when i break into a loss.

Im really interested in some big oil as well,but not yet,i think we might see sub $20 in oil so im waiting.Timber i like West Frazer,debt to equity of 23% and they have extended and increased their revolving credit to $850million and 2024 think il start first ladder in them soon,potash iv already started to buy Mosiac,and 2nd ladder gone into K+S AG.Im not buying anything in solar,im buying and keeping silver miners instead to cover that.

Kids are asleep,Mrs P out,so I've finally got some peace to work through some ETF's and start thinking about ladders for big oilies etc.Can't believe I'm looking at $17 Statoil

 

What's the thinking behind your $20 call if you don't mind me asking?are you thinking strong dollar for a while yet?

Ref silver,good idea that.Even with a 100% over last few years TAN is still 90% off peak.I've had a quick butchers at a few and there's quite a few with negative equity and big losses running yoy on net income.

Mosiac picks up a big score on my rating system for companies.Hard to see you doing badly with it over time.Cheers for the heads up on WFT

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Kids are asleep,Mrs P out,so I've finally got some peace to work through some ETF's and start thinking about ladders for big oilies etc.

 

What's the thinking behind your $20 call if you don't mind me asking?are you thinking strong dollar for a while yet?

Ref silver,good idea that.Even with a 100% over last few years TAN is still 90% off peak.I've had a quick butchers at a few and there's quite a few with negative equity and big losses running yoy on net income.

Mosiac picks up a big score on my rating system for companies.Hard to see you doing badly with it over time.Cheers for the heads up on WFT

I think WFT management understand the cycle,they have upped liquidity in case they need it.Good move,and they run most of their energy needs from their waste wood,so will even be shielded when energy is shooting higher.Oil im torn.My roadmaps on a deflation show oil going below $18,but after that i see $200 in the next cycle.If im wrong on the downside i dont want to miss the upside.I could maybe start to buy big oil,but with wide ladder points,perhaps 12% ladders instead of 8%.I like Mosiac,they have just gone below the lows in 2008 and they trebled once the printing started after that.Im tempted to just have 3 tight ladders in them,got first in already.

[sancho panza]

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think WFT management understand the cycle,they have upped liquidity in case they need it.Good move,and they run most of their energy needs from their waste wood,so will even be shielded when energy is shooting higher.Oil im torn.My roadmaps on a deflation show oil going below $18,but after that i see $200 in the next cycle.If im wrong on the downside i dont want to miss the upside.I could maybe start to buy big oil,but with wide ladder points,perhaps 12% ladders instead of 8%.I like Mosiac,they have just gone below the lows in 2008 and they trebled once the printing started after that.Im tempted to just have 3 tight ladders in them,got first in already.

Just finished looking through soil-

top tier-IPL,NUT,MOS,SQM,IPI

second tier-Yara,ICL,K+S.

It's not only MOS that's below 08 but K+S,IPI(although they haven't made a decent profit in four years so will likely leave them alone despite their balance sheet looking rock solid)

ref oil.I'm struggling to see $20 but $30 bucks looks a possibility.  if we transition to a weak dollar phase straight away then all bets are off..Havign said that ,struggling to get my sense of direction at the mo with both dollar and gold firming.Something gotta give.With a bit of luck it will hit some of these oilies.I think we're going to start accumulating soon using tight ladders on things like Statoil/ENI and then wider ladders on gazprom,repsol

[Harley]

At last, some pullbacks this week.  Maybe even some topping action in the US, emerging, Asia Pacific, etc.  VIX up 45% this week. Moves like that often have legs.  Bonds still on the up and annoyed not to have allocated enough to them last year, although may be pleased I avoided bond funds later on.  Still fancy some individual bonds I can hold to maturity though but not easy to buy physically and price wise.  At least a few old NS&I are acting as a proxy.  Gold and silver in GBP on a tear.  Gold in particular well clear of the prior top, but maybe needs to pull back for a kiss.  Glad to have got (apologies JRM!) fully allocated to PMs last year.  GBP may be approaching a bottom here, especially now the MSM are yapping!  May be negative for the FTSE and PMs if so though.  Anyways, nice bit of volatility in most places for those looking to invest. Good to see which stocks hold up better for signs of possible underlying strength and to get into those stocks whose prices had run away.  Need patience though. Pickers market.  Trades have been crap though as spread myself too thinly so not enough attention was given.  Seen profits weaken on a number of industrial metals and missed a nice way out of a silly billy NGAS trade.  Best stop until I can give it the proper attention. Rain forecast for next week so may halt some jobs.  Maybe a good time for some deep research dives here and abroad. Keen to look at internationally listed commodity producers (oil, agri, etc) and smaller cap UK yielders for my income portfolio.  Only 60% allocated on two income portfolios and approaching full allocations on those being watched so need some new blood.  One portfolio positive while a newer one approaching a loss equal to 6 months yield.  Shows a recently reduced opportunity for deals but I need to start generating income.  Also some currency moves, especially on some CAD I've been waiting to convert.  Then maybe just one short trade, just the one, promise!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

.....especially on some CAD...

Or not, need to review the charts but need the dosh!

[CVG]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

 Bonds still on the up and annoyed not to have allocated enough to them last year, although may be pleased I avoided bond funds later on.  Still fancy some individual bonds I can hold to maturity though but not easy to buy physically and price wise.  At least a few old NS&I are acting as a proxy. 

Not sure which bonds you are considering, but Hargreaves facilitates buying individual UK gilts.

[A_P]

14 minutes ago, CVG said:

Not sure which bonds you are considering, but Hargreaves facilitates buying individual UK gilts.

Most of the brokers do. The issue is in the UK our retail bond market is pretty crap. If one has the funds better to consider something like IB and buy the US ones directly

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

At last, some pullbacks this week.  Maybe even some topping action in the US, emerging, Asia Pacific, etc.  VIX up 45% this week. Moves like that often have legs.  Bonds still on the up and annoyed not to have allocated enough to them last year, although may be pleased I avoided bond funds later on.  Still fancy some individual bonds I can hold to maturity though but not easy to buy physically and price wise.  At least a few old NS&I are acting as a proxy.  Gold and silver in GBP on a tear.  Gold in particular well clear of the prior top, but maybe needs to pull back for a kiss.  Glad to have got (apologies JRM!) fully allocated to PMs last year.  GBP may be approaching a bottom here, especially now the MSM are yapping!  May be negative for the FTSE and PMs if so though.  Anyways, nice bit of volatility in most places for those looking to invest. Good to see which stocks hold up better for signs of possible underlying strength and to get into those stocks whose prices had run away.  Need patience though. Pickers market.  Trades have been crap though as spread myself too thinly so not enough attention was given.  Seen profits weaken on a number of industrial metals and missed a nice way out of a silly billy NGAS trade.  Best stop until I can give it the proper attention. Rain forecast for next week so may halt some jobs.  Maybe a good time for some deep research dives here and abroad. Keen to look at internationally listed commodity producers (oil, agri, etc) and smaller cap UK yielders for my income portfolio.  Only 60% allocated on two income portfolios and approaching full allocations on those being watched so need some new blood.  One portfolio positive while a newer one approaching a loss equal to 6 months yield.  Shows a recently reduced opportunity for deals but I need to start generating income.  Also some currency moves, especially on some CAD I've been waiting to convert.  Then maybe just one short trade, just the one, promise!

MSM saying pound down 15% from here,i think we are within 2% of bottom.I expected lower during a bust but my leads and lags is saying bottom now due to length of currency weakness.Might see a switch into mid cap domestic cyclical's.Iv sold a lot of my PM stocks and this was one of the reasons.A lot of work went into them,but they delivered me a lot of extra capital so very happy how that went.

I tagged the bottom on a few like BATS and Imperial and if the pound recovers it might force them back down,though their defensive strengths might see them hold up.Let us know what income stocks you come up with Harley,im looking to add a few more to the list.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

Not sure which bonds you are considering, but Hargreaves facilitates buying individual UK gilts.

 

1 hour ago, A_P said:

Most of the brokers do. The issue is in the UK our retail bond market is pretty crap. If one has the funds better to consider something like IB and buy the US ones directly

Yep, 'cause the UK situation is pretty crap both in product availablity and yields to maturity.  Agree about the US.  Very different.  One on-line US broker even has functionality to create ladders, etc. Not sure if I'm allowed to buy.  I've been thinking about IB generally for a while now.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Let us know what income stocks you come up with Harley,im looking to add a few more to the list

Will do.  Currently I hold the usual suspects but it's about when to buy cheapily.

[A_P]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

 

Yep, 'cause the UK situation is pretty crap both in product availability and yields to maturity.  Agree about the US.  Very different.  One on-line US broker even has functionality to create ladders, etc. Not sure if I'm allowed to buy.  I've been thinking about IB generally for a while now.

From the research I've done we are allowed (although one should do their own DD, DYOR, YMMV etc). IB will exchange FX at spot to boot. Sadly no ISA although they do a SIPP.

[Harley]

Tick, tick, tick indeed.  IMO shale is just a sugar rush in the grand scheme.  And having refurbished older property while wanting to use recyclables, know you just need the BTUs some times.  I like an oil and gas allocation for long term income and as a hedge against my own oil consumption.  I also know how ruthless the industry can be when times are hard so maybe a good place to look after a bit of my money.  But sure, drip it in.

PS: Sounds like a cool job of yours. 

[Hardhat]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm investing in oil now as I see a panic spike sometime in the next 18 months, then a crash along with US stock markets, then a 5-7 year bull market for oil. And that'll probably be it. Hopefully I get paid off at that point, that'd be just perfect.

Hi CP, when you say "that'll be it", do you mean for the oil industry? Transition toward alternative energy sources?

[Errol]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

previously said there is no other major oil supply left outside the US,

The Arctic? The Russians seem to think there is a lot there.

[Lavalas]

Article is in German but assuming it has been presented accurately...

 

 

 

[Talking Monkey]

On ‎01‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 13:56, reformed nice guy said:

Does anyone have a view on Evraz? They look like they could be a good play for a reinflation cycle.

Low + decreasing debt, PE of 4.74 and a 14.2% div yield.

https://www.evraz.com/en/investors/reports-and-results/highlights/#financial-results

Why the huge dividend yield

[Harley]

On 01/08/2019 at 12:23, ashestoashes said:

cracking story Harley

Indeed, I was always good for a great school project/talk on cracking and other refining matters!

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

Article is in German but assuming it has been presented accurately...

 

 

 

Its stuff like this that will cause Silver to go mental at some point.

[Errol]

Is the German rule change specifically gold or all precious metals?

[dgul]

2 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Article is in German but assuming it has been presented accurately...

 

 

 

I'd also point out the symmetry -- it has also lowered the 'anonymous gold selling' threshold.  Ie, if you've already got it, it's going to be relatively more difficult to offload (well, via a dealer -- the option for private dealings remains).

[Errol]

[King Penda]

4 hours ago, Errol said:

The Arctic? The Russians seem to think there is a lot there.

Venuzwalia has some

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its stuff like this that will cause Silver to go mental at some point.

They can steal is sadly if they realy wanted to by just banning its sale then you’ve got to smuggle it out of the uk to flog it the good news is I doubt you can train dogs to sniff silver at the ports

[Castlevania]

15 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

They can steal is sadly if they realy wanted to by just banning its sale then you’ve got to smuggle it out of the uk to flog it the good news is I doubt you can train dogs to sniff silver at the ports

Or pay for storage offshore...