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UK restaurant numbers drop for first time in eight years


sancho panza

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sancho panza

No mention of the private equity guru's.

More empty shopfronts looming.More CRE exposure blowing up

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/28/uk-restaurant-numbers-drop-for-first-time-in-eight-years

'The number of restaurants in the UK has fallen for the first time in eight years as sales stagnate and costs rise.

On average, two restaurants a week closed in the year to the end of March, including casual dining chains, as well as upmarket and independent establishments, according to the latest data from analysts CGA and corporate advisory firm AlixPartners.

Graeme Smith, the managing director of AlixPartners, said he expected restaurant numbers to continue to drop throughout the year as large chains in particular slim down.

There have already been high-profile closures by burger chain Byron, Jamie’s Italian, Carluccio’s, the Prezzo Group and Sir Terence Conran’s Albion restaurants, but more large chains and independents are expected to suffer.

“It’s easy to say this is a crisis in casual dining,” said Peter Martin at CGA. “This is a crisis happening for everyone.”

Restaurants are suffering because the fall in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote has made ingredients more expensive while staff costs have risen, partly due to increases in the minimum wage. Economic uncertainty has stalled growth in the sector just as competition has increased after a surge in openings partly fuelled by private equity investment.

Martin said: “People are still going out to eat and drink but in the last four years we’ve seen a net 4,000 new restaurants open. A lot of chains have gone into areas they shouldn’t have.”

The readjustment follows a growth spurt by chains across the UK. In Leeds, Bradford and Manchester, there are more than a third more food-led licensed premises than there were five years ago. Liverpool’s restaurant numbers are up by nearly a third.

Martin said growth had peaked about three years ago and even pubs were experiencing a slowdown in food sales. Meanwhile, pressure on businesses has gradually been building since then as costs have risen.

“Brexit-driven costs have meant 11% food inflation at kitchen doors,” Martin added. “The cost pressures are not going away. Prices have gone up and are staying up.”

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Chewing Grass

I call Bullshit to the statement about ingredients as at the majority of restaurants if we use the terms as loosely as the industry uses it the cost is fucking minimal judging by the quality.

Restaurant includes the boil-in-the bag chains as well as the snob chains.

Then we have a 'spurt of growth' in shit-holes like Bradford and to a lesser degree Manchester & Leeds where folks wages do not traditionally extend to weekly or even monthly visits to lavish eateries.

The problem was they couldn't drive costs down any further rather than them going up ~10%

Graeme Smith and his buddy Peter Martin are lying spreadsheet bullshitters who drew a straight line graph in a curved world and are trying to obfuscate their mistakes.

At least the Kebab sector will be going from strength to strength but that is not their corporate bag yet.

TATA kebabs anyone.

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the reality is around here many takeaways are a way of cleaning  drug money,theres one near me the guy who runs it has a huge fking merc and i doubt if its open 3 hours a day,theres quite often 3-4 hangers on ropers chating to him and they are always nipping in and out if you get my drift.

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

I call Bullshit to the statement about ingredients as at the majority of restaurants if we use the terms as loosely as the industry uses it the cost is fucking minimal judging by the quality.

Restaurant includes the boil-in-the bag chains as well as the snob chains.

Then we have a 'spurt of growth' in shit-holes like Bradford and to a lesser degree Manchester & Leeds where folks wages do not traditionally extend to weekly or even monthly visits to lavish eateries.

The problem was they couldn't drive costs down any further rather than them going up ~10%

Graeme Smith and his buddy Peter Martin are lying spreadsheet bullshitters who drew a straight line graph in a curved world and are trying to obfuscate their mistakes.

At least the Kebab sector will be going from strength to strength but that is not their corporate bag yet.

TATA kebabs anyone.

the dapple grey in uttoxeter is a good example,im not sure what group it is but the meals have increased by at least 20% in price,and i nealy fell over when i was charged £4.60 for a pint of larger...peroni...mind it was quite nice but uttoxeter isnt in the se.

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28 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

the dapple grey in uttoxeter is a good example,im not sure what group it is but the meals have increased by at least 20% in price,and i nealy fell over when i was charged £4.60 for a pint of larger...peroni...mind it was quite nice but uttoxeter isnt in the se.

Round here you only drink peroni when they have run out of Budweiser. :Passusabeer: 

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26 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

Round here you only drink peroni when they have run out of Budweiser. :Passusabeer: 

it was very hot and that chain has stoped selling guiness another clue,they have there own dark stout has an alternative.i just said a decent pint of larger around here thats stella and its about 3.30

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5 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

it was very hot and that chain has stoped selling guiness another clue,they have there own dark stout has an alternative.i just said a decent pint of larger around here thats stella and its about 3.30

I know the feeling, peach schnapps anyone?  We've all been there. :)

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leonardratso

thats just the problem when things go belly up, nobody analysing it mentions the PE guys who came along, loaded a possibly viable business to the gills with debt, stripped it then made off like bandits, its always a bad business model, or brexit or costs or competition. Its a bit like poachers the way i see it, what happens when theres no more game since its all been decimated. What do they turn their hands to then?

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Discretionary spending

I've been waiting for the dining out bubble to pop almost as long as I've been waiting for the housing bubble to deflate.

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sancho panza
9 hours ago, stokiescum said:

the dapple grey in uttoxeter is a good example,im not sure what group it is but the meals have increased by at least 20% in price,and i nealy fell over when i was charged £4.60 for a pint of larger...peroni...mind it was quite nice but uttoxeter isnt in the se.

https://www.oldenglishinns.co.uk/our-locations/the-rothley-court-hotel-rothley

Rothley Court,a posh hotel near Leicester is doing pub meals for £4.99 nowadays.

Used to be an a la carte restaurant iirc.

Incredible squeeze ongoing in parts of the country.

7 hours ago, leonardratso said:

thats just the problem when things go belly up, nobody analysing it mentions the PE guys who came along, loaded a possibly viable business to the gills with debt, stripped it then made off like bandits, its always a bad business model, or brexit or costs or competition. Its a bit like poachers the way i see it, what happens when theres no more game since its all been decimated. What do they turn their hands to then?

Super summing up Lennie.

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leonardratso
1 hour ago, spygirl said:

The crisis in casual dining is charging fucking 50 for a couple of burgers and a beer.

Go to fucking MacDonalds and save 40.

 

 

5 guys need a lot of money to pay their wages, their premium offerings should go the way of byron muck burger.

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18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

No mention of the private equity guru's.

More empty shopfronts looming.More CRE exposure blowing up

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/28/uk-restaurant-numbers-drop-for-first-time-in-eight-years

'The number of restaurants in the UK has fallen for the first time in eight years as sales stagnate and costs rise.

On average, two restaurants a week closed in the year to the end of March, including casual dining chains, as well as upmarket and independent establishments, according to the latest data from analysts CGA and corporate advisory firm AlixPartners.

Graeme Smith, the managing director of AlixPartners, said he expected restaurant numbers to continue to drop throughout the year as large chains in particular slim down.

There have already been high-profile closures by burger chain Byron, Jamie’s Italian, Carluccio’s, the Prezzo Group and Sir Terence Conran’s Albion restaurants, but more large chains and independents are expected to suffer.

“It’s easy to say this is a crisis in casual dining,” said Peter Martin at CGA. “This is a crisis happening for everyone.”

Restaurants are suffering because the fall in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote has made ingredients more expensive while staff costs have risen, partly due to increases in the minimum wage. Economic uncertainty has stalled growth in the sector just as competition has increased after a surge in openings partly fuelled by private equity investment.

Martin said: “People are still going out to eat and drink but in the last four years we’ve seen a net 4,000 new restaurants open. A lot of chains have gone into areas they shouldn’t have.”

The readjustment follows a growth spurt by chains across the UK. In Leeds, Bradford and Manchester, there are more than a third more food-led licensed premises than there were five years ago. Liverpool’s restaurant numbers are up by nearly a third.

Martin said growth had peaked about three years ago and even pubs were experiencing a slowdown in food sales. Meanwhile, pressure on businesses has gradually been building since then as costs have risen.

“Brexit-driven costs have meant 11% food inflation at kitchen doors,” Martin added. “The cost pressures are not going away. Prices have gone up and are staying up.”

Two a week closing, but average net rate over four years is +20 a week.  I'd suggest this is nothing and that there's far worse to come...

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PatronizingGit

Wonder how much is really due to rents. Of these chain reductions, a surprisingly high amount are not in the ex-industrial towns oop north, but in high-rent cost towns around London. 

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One percent
6 hours ago, spygirl said:

The crisis in casual dining is charging fucking 50 for a couple of burgers and a beer.

Go to fucking MacDonalds and save 40.

 

 

Ah, I see you have been to raithwaite. o.O  it was empty. 

I was in an award winning fish and chip restaurant with views of the harbour (well fish sheds) yesterday. It was practically empty. 

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2 minutes ago, One percent said:

Ah, I see you have been to raithwaite. o.O  it was empty. 

I was in an award winning fish and chip restaurant with views of the harbour (well fish sheds) yesterday. It was practically empty. 

Depends on the time.

Outside of dinner and tea time, its quiet.

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