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London House prices down 4.4% year on year....BBC no less.


sancho panza

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sancho panza

Shamelessly lifted from the main o/t board who are more ahead of the news than we are.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49016543

Detached homes in London fell in value by more than £50,000 in a year, according to official figures, driving the slowdown in UK house price growth.

Typically, this type of property cost £903,088 in May last year, but fell by 6.1% to £847,998 by this May, Land Registry figures show.

The prices of other property types in the capital also fell, but by less.

Annual property price rises overall in the UK slowed to 1.2% in May, from 1.5% the previous month.

The fact they are still rising at all is thanks to price increases in homes outside London.

Regional house price changes - ONS/Land Registry figures

 

The London housing market has been affected by factors ranging from stamp duty and other tax changes to sentiment among buyers and sellers owing to Brexit.

The Land Registry data shows that prices fell by 4.4% in the year to May - the biggest drop since a 7% decrease was recorded during the financial crisis in August 2009. This is made up of the 6.1% fall for detached homes, as well as drops of 5% for flats and maisonettes, 4% for semi-detached houses, and 2.9% for terraced homes.

"The scale of London's fall is also a reminder of the definitive shift in the dynamic in the capital," said Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders.

"Buyers are now setting the tempo, dictating terms in price negotiations and frequently able to secure additional discounts on properties that are already reduced."

However, the average London home is still valued at £457,471, the Land Registry data shows, which is much greater than the UK average of £229,000.

The average price of homes in the UK is also still rising - up by 1.2% in the year to May, according to the Office for National Statistics. However, this was a slowdown from annual growth of 1.5% in April.

Average house price change in UK - ONS figures

 
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Great piece on wolfstreet also - https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/17/london-house-price-bubble-deflates-sales-at-2009-level/

I found this bit especially interesting

Sales volume in the UK overall has plunged in March every year since the pre-Brexit-vote spike in 2016. According to the ONS, March sales data are transactions in March that closed and were registered by now. With 74,503 such transactions in March 2019, sales activity has fallen below the March 2015 level and has plunged:

  • 47% from March 2016
  • 20% from March 2017
  • 12% from March 2018:

UK-house-sales-volume-2019-05.png

I'd be interested in year on year comparisons - what are housing transaction numbers yearly from say 2007?

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38 minutes ago, Durabo said:

Great piece on wolfstreet also - https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/17/london-house-price-bubble-deflates-sales-at-2009-level/

I found this bit especially interesting

Sales volume in the UK overall has plunged in March every year since the pre-Brexit-vote spike in 2016. According to the ONS, March sales data are transactions in March that closed and were registered by now. With 74,503 such transactions in March 2019, sales activity has fallen below the March 2015 level and has plunged:

  • 47% from March 2016
  • 20% from March 2017
  • 12% from March 2018:

UK-house-sales-volume-2019-05.png

I'd be interested in year on year comparisons - what are housing transaction numbers yearly from say 2007?

Not sure really sure what use that graph is, it's only comparing a single month.

Do you want data only comparing march or for the full years?

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Durabo said:

Great piece on wolfstreet also - https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/17/london-house-price-bubble-deflates-sales-at-2009-level/

I found this bit especially interesting

Sales volume in the UK overall has plunged in March every year since the pre-Brexit-vote spike in 2016. According to the ONS, March sales data are transactions in March that closed and were registered by now. With 74,503 such transactions in March 2019, sales activity has fallen below the March 2015 level and has plunged:

  • 47% from March 2016
  • 20% from March 2017
  • 12% from March 2018:

UK-house-sales-volume-2019-05.png

I'd be interested in year on year comparisons - what are housing transaction numbers yearly from say 2007?

The 3% Stamp Duty surcharge on second homes started on April 1st 2016, so lots of sales were pushed through in March to beat the deadline. March 2016 is an anomaly.

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2 hours ago, Tdog said:

Didnt this happen a while ago where there was a one off large drop, then up the next.

Good few months of these drops it could be a sign, if not its ponzi business as usual.

I can see Boris doing all he can to assist the global 0.1%ers buy up London property in the coming weeks. 

Im praying for political chaos in order that they are too bussy to prop the bubb;e

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Chewing Grass

Looks like one form of excess enrichment is affecting the other form of excess enrichment.

Poetic.

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Castlevania

@sancho panzaAre you still short Berkeley? I notice that Tony Pidgley sold another tranche of his shares yesterday. He’s generally one who’s called the London property market well for decades. I get the feeling he knows something!

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anecdotal: I have a house worth 270k no mortgage. looking to upgrade to another new build for 440k.

Was planning on using 270k as a deposit and using help to buy. Problem is you have to get a mortgage for 25% minimum which is 110k.

On my wage of 28k i was offered 110k mortgage but had another call with TSB last week and they will now offer me 90k max. Computer says no.

I have a GF that earns 60k but not interested in getting her 'involved'. So basically stuck in a 3 up 2 down wanting to move to a detached house 1 hour from London.

Anyone else any anecdotes of the banks turning the taps off? Wish we could have a 50% crash tomorrow and get it over and done with.

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More interesting, who has the money to buy all these 440k detached houses?? they are building hundreds of them near me. If i am struggling with 270k deposit and help to buy the only people buying are surely london escapees. Just highlighting the madness.

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17 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

More interesting, who has the money to buy all these 440k detached houses?? they are building hundreds of them near me. If i am struggling with 270k deposit and help to buy the only people buying are surely london escapees. Just highlighting the madness.

Because they only need a 5% deposit, £22k is hardly out of the reach for a duo working in and around London. I also know of a few people who were buying/bought with siblings so sensible people are up against it. 

19 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

anecdotal: I have a house worth 270k no mortgage. looking to upgrade to another new build for 440k.

Was planning on using 270k as a deposit and using help to buy. Problem is you have to get a mortgage for 25% minimum which is 110k.

On my wage of 28k i was offered 110k mortgage but had another call with TSB last week and they will now offer me 90k max. Computer says no.

I have a GF that earns 60k but not interested in getting her 'involved'. So basically stuck in a 3 up 2 down wanting to move to a detached house 1 hour from London.

Anyone else any anecdotes of the banks turning the taps off? Wish we could have a 50% crash tomorrow and get it over and done with.

Was the 110k/90k just an in principle offers or a firm underwriting offers?

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23 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

anecdotal: I have a house worth 270k no mortgage. looking to upgrade to another new build for 440k.

Was planning on using 270k as a deposit and using help to buy. Problem is you have to get a mortgage for 25% minimum which is 110k.

On my wage of 28k i was offered 110k mortgage but had another call with TSB last week and they will now offer me 90k max. Computer says no.

I have a GF that earns 60k but not interested in getting her 'involved'. So basically stuck in a 3 up 2 down wanting to move to a detached house 1 hour from London.

Anyone else any anecdotes of the banks turning the taps off? Wish we could have a 50% crash tomorrow and get it over and done with.

If you really want the house then go to a broker. They'll happily find you someone willing to lend you 4.5 x salary, especially on a 25% LTV

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It is all madness. Would prefer it if my house was worth what i paid for it. But thing is it is well within affordability for myself but the banks are so thick they dont take certain circumstances into account. They should be happy to lend me 150k, it would be my problem not theirs, but at the same time they will lend 150k each to a couple using help to buy and  a small deposit on a 440k house that they can never afford to repay over 25 years. I have no children, no debts, 2 good degrees, a partner earning 60k. I also have parent with a 1 million house paid off and a 1 million pension pot. People think that the banks are dishing out money but spyguy is right when he states it is not as easy as you would think. I am definitely low risk and they have just knocked another 20k off what they will lend.

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4 minutes ago, A_P said:

If you really want the house then go to a broker. They'll happily find you someone willing to lend you 4.5 x salary, especially on a 25% LTV

will they? and they also deal with help to buy? I found it difficult to find anyone involved with the htb scheme. Can anyone list the banks dealing with htb mortgages?

 

TSB was at the in principle stage, were talking 110 now they are looking at 90k

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13 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

will they? and they also deal with help to buy? I found it difficult to find anyone involved with the htb scheme. Can anyone list the banks dealing with htb mortgages?

 

TSB was at the in principle stage, were talking 110 now they are looking at 90k

Yes. If you don't want to go through a broker just google Help to Buy Mortgage, there are plenty of providers.

Don't take the amount in the principle as a given. The actual amount will differ on a firm offer once the full details have been processed. If you want more money just increase the term* lol:

image.png.6eff4ed2f0665bea47d790df7a03e48c.png

*not financial advice btw. Just illustrating how the system works :D 

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15 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

will they? and they also deal with help to buy? I found it difficult to find anyone involved with the htb scheme. Can anyone list the banks dealing with htb mortgages?

 

TSB was at the in principle stage, were talking 110 now they are looking at 90k

Seems strange they would change the amount at principle stage unless you applied for another DIP? The fact they only offer £90k on a £28k salary smells fishy. Usually a DIP would go to the max like x 4.75. 

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i can only do 25 year term, that may have been what changed, she said you have had a birthday since we last spoke and 25 years will take you to the 65 year retirement i had previously stated. i said i will retire at 70 and she re ran the calcs.

 

Whenever i search for HTB mortgages i get lots of returns on those who deal with the htb isa and want a mortgage. Never found a definitive list of the banks dealing with htb mortgages. 

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2 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

i can only do 25 year term, that may have been what changed, she said you have had a birthday since we last spoke and 25 years will take you to the 65 year retirement i had previously stated. i said i will retire at 70 and she re ran the calcs.

 

Whenever i search for HTB mortgages i get lots of returns on those who deal with the htb isa and want a mortgage. Never found a definitive list of the banks dealing with htb mortgages. 

Just to name a few:

Barclays

Halifax

NatWest

Santander

Virgin Money

Nationwide Building Society

Post Office

LLoyds

Leeds BS

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1 hour ago, RJT1979 said:

anecdotal: I have a house worth 270k no mortgage. looking to upgrade to another new build for 440k.

Was planning on using 270k as a deposit and using help to buy. Problem is you have to get a mortgage for 25% minimum which is 110k.

On my wage of 28k i was offered 110k mortgage but had another call with TSB last week and they will now offer me 90k max. Computer says no.

I have a GF that earns 60k but not interested in getting her 'involved'. So basically stuck in a 3 up 2 down wanting to move to a detached house 1 hour from London.

Anyone else any anecdotes of the banks turning the taps off? Wish we could have a 50% crash tomorrow and get it over and done with.

Id guess its the initial, followed by more detailed look.

You can get ~4 x earnings on your income -  3 to 4 x 28k = 112k.

They then adjust it with their model/your regular spend.

The challenger banks, being the biggest idiot in town ~12 months ago, are suddenly cranking down as term funding has been shut off and hey are finding it very hard to raise capital.

 

 

51 minutes ago, A_P said:

Seems strange they would change the amount at principle stage unless you applied for another DIP? The fact they only offer £90k on a £28k salary smells fishy. Usually a DIP would go to the max like x 4.75. 

Nope.

They spin it with raw numbers.

Then adjust to model/spending survey.

 

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1 hour ago, RJT1979 said:

It is all madness. Would prefer it if my house was worth what i paid for it. But thing is it is well within affordability for myself but the banks are so thick they dont take certain circumstances into account. They should be happy to lend me 150k, it would be my problem not theirs, but at the same time they will lend 150k each to a couple using help to buy and  a small deposit on a 440k house that they can never afford to repay over 25 years. I have no children, no debts, 2 good degrees, a partner earning 60k. I also have parent with a 1 million house paid off and a 1 million pension pot. People think that the banks are dishing out money but spyguy is right when he states it is not as easy as you would think. I am definitely low risk and they have just knocked another 20k off what they will lend.

All they can look at is your income.

The other stuff have no bearing on how they'll lend. Parents? Thats there money, nothign to do with you. GF? She can run off next week.

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1 hour ago, RJT1979 said:

More interesting, who has the money to buy all these 440k detached houses?? they are building hundreds of them near me. If i am struggling with 270k deposit and help to buy the only people buying are surely london escapees. Just highlighting the madness.

The role of overseas investors in the London new-build residential market May 2017

https://www.london.gov.uk/moderngovmb/documents/s58640/08b2b LSE Overseas Investment report.pdf

 

image.thumb.png.b562b019c9db5713dd1f8919f3e06a4f.png

Someone posted something on the Tos a while ago showing that in some areas over 50% of all purchases were overseas.  

 

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9 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Id guess its the initial, followed by more detailed look.

You can get ~4 x earnings on your income -  3 to 4 x 28k = 112k.

They then adjust it with their model/your regular spend.

The challenger banks, being the biggest idiot in town ~12 months ago, are suddenly cranking down as term funding has been shut off and hey are finding it very hard to raise capital.

 

 

Nope.

They spin it with raw numbers.

Then adjust to model/spending survey.

 

Yes I know how they work. I was inferring to the poster who has a £270k deposit and looking at a 50%+- LTV. If he can't get a DIP of 4.5-4.75 then there is something going on with the spending (or elswhere) considering they are mortgage free. Surely that they would know about, not post on here complaining why he can only get £90k. imo the spending would have to be something quite serious considering....

We've had three DIP's in the past twelve months from three different providers. All individual apps and they all came out at exactly.....4.75. And....when we actually proceeded.....The firm mortgage offer was x 4.5.

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22 minutes ago, feed said:

The role of overseas investors in the London new-build residential market May 2017

https://www.london.gov.uk/moderngovmb/documents/s58640/08b2b LSE Overseas Investment report.pdf

 

image.thumb.png.b562b019c9db5713dd1f8919f3e06a4f.png

Someone posted something on the Tos a while ago showing that in some areas over 50% of all purchases were overseas.  

 

I thought the overseas investor thing had gone down but obviously not.  I suppose the sinking £ has something to do with it.  I don't understand why the government hasn't introduced a tax on overseas buyers buying British property which just goes to show how far they are connected to the house-builders.

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5 minutes ago, janch said:

I thought the overseas investor thing had gone down but obviously not.  I suppose the sinking £ has something to do with it.  I don't understand why the government hasn't introduced a tax on overseas buyers buying British property which just goes to show how far they are connected to the house-builders.

May it has, maybe the 4.4% is related to that. This is 2017 data and there is always going to be a lag.  And 2017 did correspond to a USD priced low 

image.png.3a2e342325c6aad723023fd59c90a763.png

 

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One percent
40 minutes ago, janch said:

I thought the overseas investor thing had gone down but obviously not.  I suppose the sinking £ has something to do with it.  I don't understand why the government hasn't introduced a tax on overseas buyers buying British property which just goes to show how far they are connected to the house-builders.

Especially when the majority of these properties are mothballed. Mind, once the overseas “investors” decide to sell, it’ll be a bloodbath. 

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