Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, feed said:

When was that ever the case.  The big moves (off the 90's bottom) started in 98/99 where i live.  Inflation (RPI) adjusted we still haven’t hit the 2008 peak. 

I remember a conversation with some of our grads a few years ago, their dissatisfaction of not being able to buy a place now they had jobs.  They seemed somewhat perturbed when we all explained that we hadn’t been able to get a place until we were all in our mid/late 30’s. 
 

and with buy, i mean get a mortgage.   

My parents finished up with me (last of 4 children) in their early 30s in beginning of the 80’s (and my mum was considered old compared to other school mums with my child’s mind view at the time).

My father was on a good salary with bonuses for the time, but was basically in a manual job in the metal fabrication industry and my mother didn’t work. 

Their mortgage had already been remortgaged again (re-mortgaging several times was often common) to pay for new doors, windows, and conservatory. In fact some next door neighbours boomers who were so shit with money they couldn’t even get a mobile phone contract. They had re-mortgaged multiple times, and when they sold their house (£400k bought for £40k) they only had a £120k out of it and bought a flat to rent out down the coast while they moved in a caravan park. That boomer cycle situation will never happen again.

I don’t think my background was particularly anecdotal, as a lot of my friends and school mates had similar backgrounds at the time. But the example above is of the boomer generation not really Gen-X.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

I can assure you that Gen X (which is always forgotten in these conversations) also feels pissed off. The life they can have is far removed from that which their parents enjoyed.

Exactly that, which I have now clarified.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, you say you were thinking about Rome's fall... thought you might be interested (might already be aware?) that Camille Paglia (ironically a militant feminist; but i think she is a kind of social barometer for USA) says similar things regarding the end-days of empires which she says are typically marked by political pre-occupation with sexual topics (of all things!) 

In link below, Paglia makes her main point between 4.00-6:00. Ok she perhaps stretches her theory and even manages to weave in ISIS !!; but for me, i think the discussion is very informative, because these are the type of social topics that are dividing America, ie its not just about 'race' - but you'd never know that by listening to MSM here in the UK.  

(i note that Obama's last days as president had him passing bills regarding trans-gender bathrooms - the extroardinary thing is that Biden, seems has learned nothing, and during his first days in office he is enacting more similar legislation (again by executive order no less!))

Lesson from History: Transgender Mania is Sign of Cultural Collapse - Camille Paglia - YouTube

...excuse the off-piste post!!

That was very interesting.If you step back and look at histroy broadly,it's amazing how many indicators of seismic change there are.

Fascinating interview tbh

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

 

Barnsey, interesting graph. Would you know why shipping costs are high coming from China, but still low going from here to China? Or is the differential just a lead/lag thing, however it looks like those costs begun to rise approx 12 months ago which is also surprising?

Sorry if being a pain, but I admit i haven't kept up on the recent thread discussions over the rises in shipping costs. Hoping someone can recap for me on the cost dynamics happening here?

[Noallegiance]

48 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

I think it going to be one of those see who makes it sectors.

'Shares in $30 billion U.S. fuel-cell specialist Plug Power are up 20-fold since the start of 2020, and are nearly 70 times this year’s expected sales. U.S. rival Bloom Energy and Canada’s Ballard Power Systems, UK group Ceres Power and Norway’s Nel are all up fourfold or more. Britain’s ITM Power, now worth 3.6 billion pounds, trades at over 100 times next year’s revenue.'

AFC and Powerhouse getting spanked after their run up

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have no view JMD other than to ask if oil and gas rights means a royalty reserves? Otherwise I'd question their dividend. And if it is, the opportunity would be in how reserves could be reclassified in a higher price environment. Not really my cup of tea, I prefer companies that actively replace and grow their reserves, hence my point about BP.

Thank you for your comments CP. Yes it is royalties from oil/gas company drilling (i confusingly/incorrectly wrote 'rights'). Horizon Kinetic say they own them because they think they are very undervalued, and HK's investment expectation is for big energy price rises, with a resulting subsequent explosion in these companies royalties/cashflows, so i must assume the contracts allow for % energy price increases.

Knowing that HK have very similar thoughts (ie similar to this thread, including dislike of uneconomic shale oil) regarding the big oil opportunity ahead is what led me to believe that these royalty companies might be a good 'hard asset/reflation' play. I ideally wanted to select for the ones with minimal exposure to shale/plus contracts with say big energy co's (Exon, etc). However, doing this might be a bit above my level of knowledge.  

For example, link below is Brigham Minerals annual report (page 15 lists their fields/drilling companies), I shall attempt to read the document and discover how much relevant information it contains.  

Composite.pdf (q4cdn.com)

 

 

[Hardhat]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

AFC and Powerhouse getting spanked after their run up

CWR still going, up 6% today. I'm up 280% so far, target is £20. Currently at £15.60.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Barnsey, interesting graph. Would you know why shipping costs are high coming from China, but still low going from here to China? Or is the differential just a lead/lag thing, however it looks like those costs begun to rise approx 12 months ago which is also surprising?

Sorry if being a pain, but I admit i haven't kept up on the recent thread discussions over the rises in shipping costs. Hoping someone can recap for me on the cost dynamics happening here?

I might be completely wrong here, and there are far more qualified members on here to explain, but my core understanding is that it's mainly down to a shift in consumption, money diverted away from services/experiences because of lockdown into buying tat and tech from China.

[Noallegiance]

8 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

CWR still going, up 6% today. I'm up 280% so far, target is £20. Currently at £15.60.

Nice.

I sold 40% of AFC and PH two days before the correction! I'm not even Irish.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Kiss of death!  Especially if the capital gains policy in the clip below is her idea, quickest way to crash an economy.

 

Why do so many US politicians appear so ancient - or am i just being ageist? And I'm not just referring to sleepy Joe Biddon. What i mean is here in the UK our old politicians are still pretty healthy looking and also mentally agile, whereas in the US they typically look as though they are about to drop dead (there, i said it!). i.e. Yellon is 74 and looks and sounds every one of her very creaky 74 years.

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

It isn't going to happen, but could you imagine the BTL rush to get out the door... or better still to jump off the roof.

[planit]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Why do so many US politicians appear so ancient - or am i just being ageist? And I'm not just referring to sleepy Joe Biddon. What i mean is here in the UK our old politicians are still pretty healthy looking and also mentally agile, whereas in the US they typically look as though they are about to drop dead (there, i said it!). i.e. Yellon is 74 and looks and sounds every one of her very creaky 74 years.

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

Pelosi is 80!

2 of the 3 most powerful politicians in  America 78 and 80

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I think this is an incredibly prescient post. For Bitcoin, see also Tesla and other rock-star "investments".

The $64 thousand trillion question is whether they have sufficient numbers to affect big oil? Tens, if not hundreds, of millions of woke "investors", combined with moronic fund managers desperately scrabbling to out-woke one another, could mean a lot of pain for many on this thread, at least in the short term.

I had a recent Road to Damascus conversion re wokedom (Netflix, Sex Education, Series 2, if interested). I am starting to wonder whether the morons might win...

They will simply all pay for their education.Nothing new about that.Cycle will hit the woke very very hard most likely.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's not the Robinhood traders they're afraid of I think Harley, more the virtue signalling institutional investors led by Larry Fink at Blackrock. Once price signals that there is a supply problem and there's a trade to be had for another 5-10 years, they'll be back in like sharks in bloody water of course. My concern is that BP needs to retain the capacity to react to that.

Exactly.These guys arent stupid.They must see the macro picture growing.Its likely they know the potential and are talking stocks down so they can load up for their families trust funds.Those woke fund managers  are being played by masters of the game.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Barnsey, interesting graph. Would you know why shipping costs are high coming from China, but still low going from here to China? Or is the differential just a lead/lag thing, however it looks like those costs begun to rise approx 12 months ago which is also surprising?

Sorry if being a pain, but I admit i haven't kept up on the recent thread discussions over the rises in shipping costs. Hoping someone can recap for me on the cost dynamics happening here?

Because most go back empty.

[Harley]

 

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Hmmm, 'email to UKColumn', do you know about UKColumn Harley? 

I used to think them too conspiratorial, but to be fair haven't read anything from/about them in years... but then Covid happened (well more accurately the 'government response' to Covid happened)... perhaps i should revisit them, just for a laugh?!

 

I was wondering, a below par performance on my part!

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.These guys arent stupid.They must see the macro picture growing.Its likely they know the potential and are talking stocks down so they can load up for their families trust funds.Those woke fund managers  are being played by masters of the game.

Exactly this DB I'm sure that there are 100s of billions of dollars of genuine smart money within the trillions of dollars of managed money waiting to pounce. Those masters of the game will have breathtaking levels of nuance, guile and finesse in their strategising.

[Castlevania]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly that, which I have now clarified.

Hang on. If you were born early 80’s wouldn’t you qualify as a millennial?

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Hang on. If you were born early 80’s wouldn’t you qualify as a millennial?

On the cusp of Gen-X/millennial. But the first millennials are getting to be old, grey bastards too nowadays, time flies eh? 

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Why do so many US politicians appear so ancient - or am i just being ageist? And I'm not just referring to sleepy Joe Biddon. What i mean is here in the UK our old politicians are still pretty healthy looking and also mentally agile, whereas in the US they typically look as though they are about to drop dead (there, i said it!). i.e. Yellon is 74 and looks and sounds every one of her very creaky 74 years.

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

Yes, Hong Kong does in a way.  If you get share tranches, and they are worth 10k a year you get taxed on that.  Then if the next years tranches comes in and the shares have gone up to 12k in value, you get taxed 2k extra even though you haven't sold anything.

It's a bit stupid, but they do it to expats to stop them getting paid zero whilst in HK, moving away, and then cashing in all the shares.

[Castlevania]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Yes, Hong Kong does in a way.  If you get share tranches, and they are worth 10k a year you get taxed on that.  Then if the next years tranches comes in and the shares have gone up to 12k in value, you get taxed 2k extra even though you haven't sold anything.

It's a bit stupid, but they do it to expats to stop them getting paid zero whilst in HK, moving away, and then cashing in all the shares.

They do something similar in the Netherlands. There’s no specific capital gains, or dividend taxation. Instead you pay an effective 1.6% wealth tax rate (technically it’s 40% on the average bank interest rate, but after interest rates dropped they kept this interest rate at a floored 4%) on all your savings (cash, equities etc) based on it’s value at the start of the year. 

[Barnsey]

Bankrupt company way beyond its sell by date going INTO the S&P 

 

[sancho panza]

Swedish Doctor predicts end of covid

Sancho predicts Sleepy Joe to solve covid crisis in his first 100 days ....you read it here first.

Buckle up for the rollercoatster ride.....

via Lockdown Sceptics

Posted just now

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/01/25/heres-a-graph-they-dont-want-you-to-see/

Here’s a graph that doesn’t get shown in the mass media, and that I’m sure all those who want you to stay fearful of covid don’t want you to see.

There is so much that is interesting about this graph. Like I said, it begins in week 28, in other words in early July, which is around the time the first Swedish covid wave was bottoming out. At the time, I personally thought this was due to enough of the population having developed immunity to covid, but we now know that was wrong. Rather, it was due to seasonality – in other words, summer caused covid to disappear.

Your body generally doesn’t keep producing antibodies forever after an infection, rather they wane. Of course, this doesn’t mean immunity is waning, as I discussed on this blog a while back. Although the actively antibody producing cells disappear, memory cells remain, ready to be activated at short notice if you get re-exposed to the pathogen.

After an initial reduction, the proportion with antibodies stabilized at around 10% in August, and stayed that way until October, when it started to rise, in line with the beginning of the second wave. And it’s literally kept rising by a percentage point or two, every week, all autumn and winter so far. In the second week of January 2021, 40% of those tested in Sweden had antibodies to covid.

Funnily enough, mainstream media has so far shown relatively little interest in publicizing this astounding fact. The trend is real, and cannot be denied.

Apart from that, there is another form of bias that will tend to make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. This is the fact that people who already know they’ve had covid generally don’t keep re-testing themselves to confirm it. This group gets bigger and bigger as more and more people get covid, and this will eventually make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. So at some point, there is an inflection point. In the early pandemic, a larger share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would get from a random sample. In the late stages of the pandemic, a smaller share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would see in a random sample.

In the last few weeks the number of people being treated for covid in hospitals in Sweden has been dropping rapidly, as has the share of PCR-tests that are coming back positive. There is much discussion in the media about what the cause might be. Everyone seems to be very surprised. Is it because people are better at working from home? Or because people aren’t traveling as much? Or because more people are wearing face masks?

No-one is discussing the obvious explanation – that so many people have now had covid, and have developed immunity, that the virus is having difficulty finding new hosts. In other words, Sweden’s oddly controversial “herd immunity” strategy worked.

At the end of the second week of January, 10,323 people had died of/with covid in Sweden. In fact, the real number is probably much lower. A recent study carried out here in Stockholm found that only 17% of those who supposedly died of covid in care homes actually had covid as the primary cause of death.

But let’s assume 10,323 is correct, for the sake of argument. If 40% of Swedes have had covid, that gives an infection fatality rate of 0,25%. It’s a little higher than the global infection fatality rate determined by professor John Ioannidis, which is likely due to the fact that Sweden’s population is older than the global average. But it’s not much higher, and certainly not high enough to motivate the large scale harm imposed on us by the powers that be. That’s why the fear mongers don’t want you to see that graph. And that’s why I hope you will help me spread it far and wide.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Swedish Doctor predicts end of covid

Sancho predicts Sleepy Joe to solve covid crisis in his first 100 days ....you read it here first.

Buckle up for the rollercoatster ride.....

via Lockdown Sceptics

Posted just now

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/01/25/heres-a-graph-they-dont-want-you-to-see/

Here’s a graph that doesn’t get shown in the mass media, and that I’m sure all those who want you to stay fearful of covid don’t want you to see.

There is so much that is interesting about this graph. Like I said, it begins in week 28, in other words in early July, which is around the time the first Swedish covid wave was bottoming out. At the time, I personally thought this was due to enough of the population having developed immunity to covid, but we now know that was wrong. Rather, it was due to seasonality – in other words, summer caused covid to disappear.

Your body generally doesn’t keep producing antibodies forever after an infection, rather they wane. Of course, this doesn’t mean immunity is waning, as I discussed on this blog a while back. Although the actively antibody producing cells disappear, memory cells remain, ready to be activated at short notice if you get re-exposed to the pathogen.

After an initial reduction, the proportion with antibodies stabilized at around 10% in August, and stayed that way until October, when it started to rise, in line with the beginning of the second wave. And it’s literally kept rising by a percentage point or two, every week, all autumn and winter so far. In the second week of January 2021, 40% of those tested in Sweden had antibodies to covid.

Funnily enough, mainstream media has so far shown relatively little interest in publicizing this astounding fact. The trend is real, and cannot be denied.

Apart from that, there is another form of bias that will tend to make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. This is the fact that people who already know they’ve had covid generally don’t keep re-testing themselves to confirm it. This group gets bigger and bigger as more and more people get covid, and this will eventually make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. So at some point, there is an inflection point. In the early pandemic, a larger share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would get from a random sample. In the late stages of the pandemic, a smaller share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would see in a random sample.

In the last few weeks the number of people being treated for covid in hospitals in Sweden has been dropping rapidly, as has the share of PCR-tests that are coming back positive. There is much discussion in the media about what the cause might be. Everyone seems to be very surprised. Is it because people are better at working from home? Or because people aren’t traveling as much? Or because more people are wearing face masks?

No-one is discussing the obvious explanation – that so many people have now had covid, and have developed immunity, that the virus is having difficulty finding new hosts. In other words, Sweden’s oddly controversial “herd immunity” strategy worked.

At the end of the second week of January, 10,323 people had died of/with covid in Sweden. In fact, the real number is probably much lower. A recent study carried out here in Stockholm found that only 17% of those who supposedly died of covid in care homes actually had covid as the primary cause of death.

But let’s assume 10,323 is correct, for the sake of argument. If 40% of Swedes have had covid, that gives an infection fatality rate of 0,25%. It’s a little higher than the global infection fatality rate determined by professor John Ioannidis, which is likely due to the fact that Sweden’s population is older than the global average. But it’s not much higher, and certainly not high enough to motivate the large scale harm imposed on us by the powers that be. That’s why the fear mongers don’t want you to see that graph. And that’s why I hope you will help me spread it far and wide.

Any information on how many people have been tested for antibodies in Sweden? Is it a widespread testing regime? Or is it people who think they've had it?

What antibody testing have we had in this country?

Age range and sex of those with antibodies could also be interesting. I remember a theory that older people were more likely to have an antibody response whilst younger people could often fight it off with T cells.

[geordie_lurch]

34 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Bankrupt company way beyond its sell by date going INTO the S&P 

 

"Update 4:40pm (USA): Well that escalated quickly. Just 20 minutes after Musk's tweet, GME exploded to $240" as explained at Zerohedge here