Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.ft.com/content/8e69d4da-00d2-4ada-96f0-b5dc5c7ca40a

BP and Shell have the two biggest charging networks now and will wipe out the others by pumping in capital.Those funds are dumping the companies who will end up owning a big chunk of green infrastructure 

 

When you mentioned BP I wondered if they had done better developing their own network from scratch instead of having to buy one. Turns out they bought Chargemaster and the Polar network in 2018. Maybe paid less getting in earlier.

https://www.bppulse.co.uk/about-us

[sancho panza]

An old series I haven't checked in some time.Wolf wrote on the subject a few days back.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/01/22/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-7-7-in-december-another-record-high

 

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

I've sold some MOS (almost doubled since I bought, I'm happy to take profits as dividend potential seems lower than oil) and will reinvest into the oiles if they drop a bit more.

 

I am very overweight in oil now - about 60% of the portfolio.  But it just seems to be so damn good for almost any future.  War?! oil demand.  Inflation?! oil demand Green energy boost?!  Oily companies critical to demand 

I'm wondering what else to diversify into.  Uranium again?

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'll be interested in his answer too. Not sure if they are myself. Three possible I can think of.

1. They believe it is best for the long term if the plebs don't pollute the environment and use resources too quickly.

2. They are proper socialists and want to level everyone beneath down as levelling up isn't possible.

3. We get in their way. Much better if we're stuck in the cities using public transport. We clog up airports, roads, tourist destinations, galleries, museums and countryside that their patrons would rather have to themselves.

The first is the least worst. Likely that 1 is cover for 2 which achieves 3.

DB might have a better idea 

I've posted on this before. The invention of the private car opened the world up to the average person hugely.  Then mass tourism.

The 1% want a turnback to the 1920's and earlier, when mass tourism and movement of the plebs simply did not happen.  My grandfather was the first person in his village to drive a car (part of his job).  Very few people in his village had ever travelled more than 50 miles from their home.  In the cities, the plebs and their kids stayed in their areas, with maybe a trip to the seaside once a year as a big treat.  By railway, of course.

The rich, meanwhile, got to do the grand tour of europe, had a house in the country and one in town, and were much more mobile. 

The hard greens think that the 1% want no cars because of MUH PLANET.  I know they want it because the 1% see it as their planet, not the plebs.

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

I've posted on this before. The invention of the private car opened the world up to the average person hugely.  Then mass tourism.

The 1% want a turnback to the 1920's and earlier, when mass tourism and movement of the plebs simply did not happen.  My grandfather was the first person in his village to drive a car (part of his job).  Very few people in his village had ever travelled more than 50 miles from their home.  In the cities, the plebs and their kids stayed in their areas, with maybe a trip to the seaside once a year as a big treat.  By railway, of course.

The rich, meanwhile, got to do the grand tour of europe, had a house in the country and one in town, and were much more mobile. 

The hard greens think that the 1% want no cars because of MUH PLANET.  I know they want it because the 1% see it as their planet, not the plebs.

 

This.They want to concentrate people in cities and save the resources for themselves.Its pretty obvious whats going on.Or start from a much lower base.

[Barnsey]

"Close and longstanding economic relationship" = watch and learn.

So this is how it's going to end.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Popuplights said:

Yeah, I noticed that too. 

As part of my retirement I get to talk to an IFA. Bloke looked at my portfolio, reckoned it was insanely risky, and then said I ought to sell my tranche of XOM that I got through the share save plan at a massive discount! I will stick to making my own decisions I think, guided by this thread. 

He wants you to buy a 60/40 fund and have 40% of your wealth in gilts and treasuries.Then charge a 1% fee+ platform fees + fund fees etc and see 2% a year gone before you start.Those fees plus and flatline at best over a decade are whats going to kill people in drawdown.

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

...

So this is how it's going to end.

The Big Short Squeeze took down a hedge fund recently

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-casualty-big-short-squeeze-melvin-capital-gets-275bn-bailout-citadel-point72-after

An update on their put positions which they had to disclose...

"Last Friday, in the aftermath of the Gamespot's historic eruption which sent the stock from $40 to the mid-70s (before it doubled again on Monday rising as high as $158), we had a feeling which way the wind was blowing and laid out all the Russell 3000 stocks that had the highest Short Interest (50%> of float)."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-melvin-capitals-crushed-put-positions

Finally as Zerohedge states...

"Bottom line: brace for even more fireworks as WallStreetbets reignites the squeeze, only this time it won't be Melvin but some other hedge fund that will be crushed under the collective weight of a few thousand Robinhood bulls.
...all with the help of a few thousand stimmychecked Gen-Zers."

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

"Close and longstanding economic relationship" = watch and learn.

So this is how it's going to end.

Have you seen the price action in GameStop shares the past two days? Insane.

[wherebee]

14 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Have you seen the price action in GameStop shares the past two days? Insane.

I don't mind that, actually.  Wall Street has had the game sewn up legally for far far too long.  If some Gen Zers and Millenials have worked out a way to fuck them in the back passage, I am all for that.

I'm invested for the long term, no shorts, no leverage, no margin calls possible.  I hope that the financial whizzkids on Wall Street start jumping off buildings...

[Napoleon Dynamite]

13 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

The Big Short Squeeze took down a hedge fund recently

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-casualty-big-short-squeeze-melvin-capital-gets-275bn-bailout-citadel-point72-after

Am update on their put positions too...

"Last Friday, in the aftermath of the Gamespot's historic eruption which sent the stock from $40 to the mid-70s (before it doubled again on Monday rising as high as $158), we had a feeling which way the wind was blowing and laid out all the Russell 3000 stocks that had the highest Short Interest (50%> of float)."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-melvin-capitals-crushed-put-positions

 

Fascinating story that when you look into it.  Surprised there's no mention of Reddit and WallStreetBets (WSB) in there, as I think that's who's driving it.

More detail here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-25/how-wallstreetbets-pushed-gamestop-shares-to-the-moon

From my limited understanding of it: Gamestop's a brick and mortar retailer.  Looked to be in a terminal decline. An investor (Ryan Cohen) sees value in it and starts buying in. 

A mass of retail investors from the Reddit WSB become interested (I think there's 2 million or so subscribers).  They start buying and making leveraged bets from the likes of Robinhood. 

A couple of weeks back a notorious short seller ( https://twitter.com/CitronResearch ) attempts a hit piece on the stock saying he's shorting it. This angers the WSB bet mob who start piling in further pumping the stock even more.

It's now gone on for long enough that big (old money) hedge fund's been damaged by it.

Is an interesting one to watch.

[jamtomorrow]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I don't mind that, actually.  Wall Street has had the game sewn up legally for far far too long.  If some Gen Zers and Millenials have worked out a way to fuck them in the back passage, I am all for that.

I'm invested for the long term, no shorts, no leverage, no margin calls possible.  I hope that the financial whizzkids on Wall Street start jumping off buildings...

Does this mean the kids have finally found an effective form of civil disobedience for the 2020s?

Twas ever thus - it's not enough for the new to take over from the old, the new has to be seen to kill the old.

Turns out the kids are alright, after all.

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

He wants you to buy a 60/40 fund and have 40% of your wealth in gilts and treasuries.Then charge a 1% fee+ platform fees + fund fees etc and see 2% a year gone before you start.Those fees plus and flatline at best over a decade are whats going to kill people in drawdown.

Yep. That's exactly what he wants. I'm very lucky, these investments are not going to have to carry the heavy load, my final salary pension will do that.  I think I will take my chances! I will post more on stealth in the near future, with some numbers, and ask for some opinions. 

[geordie_lurch]

24 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Does this mean the kids have finally found an effective form of civil disobedience for the 2020s?

Twas ever thus - it's not enough for the new to take over from the old, the new has to be seen to kill the old.

Turns out the kids are alright, after all.

Yep that's why I posted some more about it all above as I think such thoughts are VERY important considering how we are all trying to project 5 - 10 years ahead to hopefully protect whatever wealth we currently have.

For example imagine what happens if they all turn their attention properly to supporting Bitcoin etc rather than the "boomers" old gold & silver idea of wealth

If these lot grow up using Robinhood and Bitcoin I really don't think they will mind 10% (or more!) per day swings in order to get ahead as they have very little to lose seeing as a lot of them start life with 50k college / University debts, work prospects are crap and house prices are so high.
 

[jamtomorrow]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep that's why I posted some more about it all above as I think such thoughts are VERY important considering how we are all trying to project 5 - 10 years ahead to hopefully protect whatever wealth we currently have.

For example imagine what happens if they all turn their attention properly to supporting Bitcoin etc rather than the "boomers" old gold & silver idea of wealth

If these lot grow up using Robinhood and Bitcoin I really don't think they will mind 10% per day swings in order to get ahead as they have very little to lose seeing as a lot of them start life with 50k college / University debts
 

It's the possibility of flash-mob disruption to markets through collective action I find interesting.

All us old farts assuming the kids were on RH for the mad gainz. Which is maybe what many of them came for. But then they realise that collectively they might be capable of f*cking the system. 

Which is what kids should be doing. Conforming to the rules and expectations of the previous generation is a terrible waste of a good youth.

[Democorruptcy]

Have we had this BP:

Quote

 

bp has begun to directly supply gas customers in China with gas from liquefied natural gas (LNG) that it has imported into the country. This is the first time that bp has created a fully integrated gas value chain into China, directly connecting upstream resources, transportation and trading with downstream gas customers.

The first cargo of gas delivered under bp’s new terminal usage agreement at the Guangdong Dapeng LNG Company Limited (GDLNG) import terminal in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, arrived on 24 January. Under the agreement, bp has 600,000 tonnes a year tolling regasification capacity at GDLNG.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-completes-integrated-gas-value-chain-in-china-with-delivery-of-lng-for-downstream-customers.html

 

 

[Don Coglione]

49 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep that's why I posted some more about it all above as I think such thoughts are VERY important considering how we are all trying to project 5 - 10 years ahead to hopefully protect whatever wealth we currently have.

For example imagine what happens if they all turn their attention properly to supporting Bitcoin etc rather than the "boomers" old gold & silver idea of wealth

If these lot grow up using Robinhood and Bitcoin I really don't think they will mind 10% (or more!) per day swings in order to get ahead as they have very little to lose seeing as a lot of them start life with 50k college / University debts, work prospects are crap and house prices are so high.
 

I think this is an incredibly prescient post. For Bitcoin, see also Tesla and other rock-star "investments".

The $64 thousand trillion question is whether they have sufficient numbers to affect big oil? Tens, if not hundreds, of millions of woke "investors", combined with moronic fund managers desperately scrabbling to out-woke one another, could mean a lot of pain for many on this thread, at least in the short term.

I had a recent Road to Damascus conversion re wokedom (Netflix, Sex Education, Series 2, if interested). I am starting to wonder whether the morons might win...

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I think this is an incredibly prescient post. For Bitcoin, see also Tesla and other rock-star "investments".

The $64 thousand trillion question is whether they have sufficient numbers to affect big oil? Tens, if not hundreds, of millions of woke "investors", combined with moronic fund managers desperately scrabbling to out-woke one another, could mean a lot of pain for many on this thread, at least in the short term.

I had a recent Road to Damascus conversion re wokedom (Netflix, Sex Education, Series 2, if interested). I am starting to wonder whether the morons might win...

No energy, no Netflix 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Have you seen the price action in GameStop shares the past two days? Insane.

I read an article about oil and gas firms (posted it on here) one was Tellurian. I think it's comparable to yours on the monthly charts. I did a watchlist of all the firms and it's up 265% since I created it 20th Nov. (No I didn't )

[Harley]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Does this mean the kids have finally found an effective form of civil disobedience for the 2020s?

Twas ever thus - it's not enough for the new to take over from the old, the new has to be seen to kill the old.

Turns out the kids are alright, after all.

Market stability, protect Doris, blah, blah, blah.........we must change the rules, oh sorry, I mean regulate!

[Loki]

20 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have we had this BP:

 

Nope, great bit of info that thanks 

[Don Coglione]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

No energy, no Netflix 

Absolutely, but a dozen or more years of indoctrination by a hobbled education system throughout the west has led to an entire generation being utterly incapable of joining the dots.

Perception = reality. 

[BurntBread]

4 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I think this is an incredibly prescient post. For Bitcoin, see also Tesla and other rock-star "investments".

The $64 thousand trillion question is whether they have sufficient numbers to affect big oil? Tens, if not hundreds, of millions of woke "investors", combined with moronic fund managers desperately scrabbling to out-woke one another, could mean a lot of pain for many on this thread, at least in the short term.

I had a recent Road to Damascus conversion re wokedom (Netflix, Sex Education, Series 2, if interested). I am starting to wonder whether the morons might win...

Surely, at worst, investors leaving big oil would put a dent in capital appreciation. However, it would have minimal impact on dividends; and if dividends are unaffected and the share price stays low, the dividend yield would be very high.

Perhaps the lesson here is don't rely on huge capital appreciation of oil stocks. I think DB has indicated this too, when he says that they will keep on shaking out the weak hands, at least until later in the cycle.

Once the dividends get high enough, of course, people's moral righteousness will start to waver. Once it also becomes clear that BP and Shell are the foundations of the green energy infrastructure, then any money that principled investors still have left, after selling Tesla, Zoom, Amazon and Peloton, is likely to end up in big oil & gas, but maybe rather late in the cycle?

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Absolutely, but a dozen or more years of indoctrination by a hobbled education system throughout the west has led to an entire generation being utterly incapable of joining the dots.

Perception = reality. 

Don't forget the contrarian aspect of this thread, although I agree there could be short-term pain due and the reasons why.  Long-term the smart money will just quietly head back into oil and gas.  They can cite National Security, or as with COVID, just start telling the truth (Radical I know) about climate change  Once the goals have been reached it doesn't matter if the plebs know or not.  Game over suckers.  Thanks for playing, points for trying.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

If these lot grow up using Robinhood and Bitcoin I really don't think they will mind 10% (or more!) per day swings in order to get ahead as they have very little to lose seeing as a lot of them start life with 50k college / University debts, work prospects are crap and house prices are so high.

As an oldie, best I mention back in the 1980's+ Japan asset boom the youngsters (similar profile to those elsewhere today) had money but not enough to buy major assets such as houses so would indulge in significant frivolous spending like a craze of sprinkling gold dust on their food.  The economists sort of (needs revision) have a name for this phenomena.  Roll on and maybe the same, only to a far more powerful effect.  We need regulation, we need more non-asset (food, etc) inflation to mop up this dangerous excess!!!!!