Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

Must say, that's an epic list Harley. Is it from using your screens?

Some look Chinese, but given the geopolitics would you consider buying those ones? (btw, i'm assuming you are buying for long-term hold, but could be wrong?)

You seem to have all of mine, i can double-check if you are wanting more(?), but a couple for the pot might be... Wartsila, hyrdrogen? CAP-XX, battery tech?

A rag bag pulled from some internet articles and maybe an ETF holding.  Several had gone bust and probably some still on the list or about to! 

I did the list prior to screens to be able to validate the results but the trouble with screens is these type of companies are hidden across several industries so needles in a haystay. 

Yes, most foreign, especially HK, such are things. I have exposure to that market but keep it under review even with their man in the Whitehouse!

I doubt long term but who knows.  Plus most/all will almost certainly fail my criteria so that would make them an automatic trade.  But some might come good.

So much more to do before I dive in too much.

PS: I have tickers and markets but could not paste properly.  Thanks for your adds.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

52 minutes ago, Festival said:

There is a very interesting article on the FT today

Vaccines have been oversold as the pandemic exit strategy 

which is behind a paywall so I can’t post but ...

 

As you've been away...YOU now need to catch up & pull ya socks up!

 

STEP BY STEP Tutorial:

 

1/ go to site:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/17c44c96-39f2-4ada-badd-d65815b0a521

 

2/ click the 'refresh' page arrow/icon

 

3/ then QUICKLY press Esc button on ya keyboard

 

VOILA ...YOU can now read for FREE!

 

WELL what you ya expect from a TIGHT-WAD Like me!

 

ALSO thanks go to @Cattle Prod for this CHEAP Trick!

 

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

You know when you're getting too old when you start having the urge to "tut"!!!!!!

Me, I just love the energy!  Hopefully it won't get exploited, as usual!

Is that St Gret'na of (all things) Green? Haven't heard much from her lately. Maybe she is beginning to lose her sparkle, now that she has turned 18 and is therefore no longer a 'child' savant.

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

As you've been away...YOU now need to catch up & pull ya socks up!

 

STEP BY STEP Tutorial:

 

1/ go to site:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/17c44c96-39f2-4ada-badd-d65815b0a521

 

2/ click the 'refresh' page arrow/icon

 

3/ then QUICKLY press Esc button on ya keyboard

 

VOILA ...YOU can now read for FREE!

 

WELL what you ya expect from a TIGHT-WAD Like me!

 

ALSO thanks go to @Cattle Prod for this CHEAP Trick!

 

 

Or you can buy a sub and wish you hadn't unless social campaigning wokery is your gig.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is that St Gret'na of (all things) Green? Haven't heard much from her lately. Maybe she is beginning to lose her sparkle, now that she has turned 18 and is no longer a 'child' savant.

I had to wade through a lot of sickily slick PR photos to find that celebrated one.  She was played but by whom?  Meanwhile the RH guy above was playing his own game, or was he?  And those punks probably didn't come from the slums of London 'cause I was there and those was proper rough!

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is that St Gret'na of (all things) Green? Haven't heard much from her lately. Maybe she is beginning to lose her sparkle, now that she has turned 18 and is therefore no longer a 'child' savant.

Of all the Swedish birds in the world and they had to pick her!

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Popuplights said:

Yep. That's exactly what he wants. I'm very lucky, these investments are not going to have to carry the heavy load, my final salary pension will do that.  I think I will take my chances! I will post more on stealth in the near future, with some numbers, and ask for some opinions. 

 

5 hours ago, CVG said:

Hydrogen investing article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hydrogen-stocks-breakingviews/breakingviews-how-to-pick-the-hydrogen-industrys-future-amazon-idUSKBN29R1HU

I think it going to be one of those see who makes it sectors.

'Shares in $30 billion U.S. fuel-cell specialist Plug Power are up 20-fold since the start of 2020, and are nearly 70 times this year’s expected sales. U.S. rival Bloom Energy and Canada’s Ballard Power Systems, UK group Ceres Power and Norway’s Nel are all up fourfold or more. Britain’s ITM Power, now worth 3.6 billion pounds, trades at over 100 times next year’s revenue.'

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

From upstairs in the "Dark Ages" thread"???????

Hmmm, 'email to UKColumn', do you know about UKColumn Harley? 

I used to think them too conspiratorial, but to be fair haven't read anything from/about them in years... but then Covid happened (well more accurately the 'government response' to Covid happened)... perhaps i should revisit them, just for a laugh?!

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

I own a little of one and will check out the other, along with Buffet's rail holdings which someone posted also benefited from pipeline closure!!!!!!

Harley, if you find a 'buff' railroad, i.e. one with good financials, i'd be very interested to hear.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, feed said:

When was that ever the case.  The big moves (off the 90's bottom) started in 98/99 where i live.  Inflation (RPI) adjusted we still haven’t hit the 2008 peak. 

I remember a conversation with some of our grads a few years ago, their dissatisfaction of not being able to buy a place now they had jobs.  They seemed somewhat perturbed when we all explained that we hadn’t been able to get a place until we were all in our mid/late 30’s. 
 

and with buy, i mean get a mortgage.   

My parents finished up with me (last of 4 children) in their early 30s in beginning of the 80’s (and my mum was considered old compared to other school mums with my child’s mind view at the time).

My father was on a good salary with bonuses for the time, but was basically in a manual job in the metal fabrication industry and my mother didn’t work. 

Their mortgage had already been remortgaged again (re-mortgaging several times was often common) to pay for new doors, windows, and conservatory. In fact some next door neighbours boomers who were so shit with money they couldn’t even get a mobile phone contract. They had re-mortgaged multiple times, and when they sold their house (£400k bought for £40k) they only had a £120k out of it and bought a flat to rent out down the coast while they moved in a caravan park. That boomer cycle situation will never happen again.

I don’t think my background was particularly anecdotal, as a lot of my friends and school mates had similar backgrounds at the time. But the example above is of the boomer generation not really Gen-X.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

I can assure you that Gen X (which is always forgotten in these conversations) also feels pissed off. The life they can have is far removed from that which their parents enjoyed.

Exactly that, which I have now clarified.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, you say you were thinking about Rome's fall... thought you might be interested (might already be aware?) that Camille Paglia (ironically a militant feminist; but i think she is a kind of social barometer for USA) says similar things regarding the end-days of empires which she says are typically marked by political pre-occupation with sexual topics (of all things!) 

In link below, Paglia makes her main point between 4.00-6:00. Ok she perhaps stretches her theory and even manages to weave in ISIS !!; but for me, i think the discussion is very informative, because these are the type of social topics that are dividing America, ie its not just about 'race' - but you'd never know that by listening to MSM here in the UK.  

(i note that Obama's last days as president had him passing bills regarding trans-gender bathrooms - the extroardinary thing is that Biden, seems has learned nothing, and during his first days in office he is enacting more similar legislation (again by executive order no less!))

Lesson from History: Transgender Mania is Sign of Cultural Collapse - Camille Paglia - YouTube

...excuse the off-piste post!!

That was very interesting.If you step back and look at histroy broadly,it's amazing how many indicators of seismic change there are.

Fascinating interview tbh

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

 

Barnsey, interesting graph. Would you know why shipping costs are high coming from China, but still low going from here to China? Or is the differential just a lead/lag thing, however it looks like those costs begun to rise approx 12 months ago which is also surprising?

Sorry if being a pain, but I admit i haven't kept up on the recent thread discussions over the rises in shipping costs. Hoping someone can recap for me on the cost dynamics happening here?

[Noallegiance]

48 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

I think it going to be one of those see who makes it sectors.

'Shares in $30 billion U.S. fuel-cell specialist Plug Power are up 20-fold since the start of 2020, and are nearly 70 times this year’s expected sales. U.S. rival Bloom Energy and Canada’s Ballard Power Systems, UK group Ceres Power and Norway’s Nel are all up fourfold or more. Britain’s ITM Power, now worth 3.6 billion pounds, trades at over 100 times next year’s revenue.'

AFC and Powerhouse getting spanked after their run up

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have no view JMD other than to ask if oil and gas rights means a royalty reserves? Otherwise I'd question their dividend. And if it is, the opportunity would be in how reserves could be reclassified in a higher price environment. Not really my cup of tea, I prefer companies that actively replace and grow their reserves, hence my point about BP.

Thank you for your comments CP. Yes it is royalties from oil/gas company drilling (i confusingly/incorrectly wrote 'rights'). Horizon Kinetic say they own them because they think they are very undervalued, and HK's investment expectation is for big energy price rises, with a resulting subsequent explosion in these companies royalties/cashflows, so i must assume the contracts allow for % energy price increases.

Knowing that HK have very similar thoughts (ie similar to this thread, including dislike of uneconomic shale oil) regarding the big oil opportunity ahead is what led me to believe that these royalty companies might be a good 'hard asset/reflation' play. I ideally wanted to select for the ones with minimal exposure to shale/plus contracts with say big energy co's (Exon, etc). However, doing this might be a bit above my level of knowledge.  

For example, link below is Brigham Minerals annual report (page 15 lists their fields/drilling companies), I shall attempt to read the document and discover how much relevant information it contains.  

Composite.pdf (q4cdn.com)

 

 

[Hardhat]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

AFC and Powerhouse getting spanked after their run up

CWR still going, up 6% today. I'm up 280% so far, target is £20. Currently at £15.60.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Barnsey, interesting graph. Would you know why shipping costs are high coming from China, but still low going from here to China? Or is the differential just a lead/lag thing, however it looks like those costs begun to rise approx 12 months ago which is also surprising?

Sorry if being a pain, but I admit i haven't kept up on the recent thread discussions over the rises in shipping costs. Hoping someone can recap for me on the cost dynamics happening here?

I might be completely wrong here, and there are far more qualified members on here to explain, but my core understanding is that it's mainly down to a shift in consumption, money diverted away from services/experiences because of lockdown into buying tat and tech from China.

[Noallegiance]

8 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

CWR still going, up 6% today. I'm up 280% so far, target is £20. Currently at £15.60.

Nice.

I sold 40% of AFC and PH two days before the correction! I'm not even Irish.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Kiss of death!  Especially if the capital gains policy in the clip below is her idea, quickest way to crash an economy.

 

Why do so many US politicians appear so ancient - or am i just being ageist? And I'm not just referring to sleepy Joe Biddon. What i mean is here in the UK our old politicians are still pretty healthy looking and also mentally agile, whereas in the US they typically look as though they are about to drop dead (there, i said it!). i.e. Yellon is 74 and looks and sounds every one of her very creaky 74 years.

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

It isn't going to happen, but could you imagine the BTL rush to get out the door... or better still to jump off the roof.

[planit]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Why do so many US politicians appear so ancient - or am i just being ageist? And I'm not just referring to sleepy Joe Biddon. What i mean is here in the UK our old politicians are still pretty healthy looking and also mentally agile, whereas in the US they typically look as though they are about to drop dead (there, i said it!). i.e. Yellon is 74 and looks and sounds every one of her very creaky 74 years.

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

Pelosi is 80!

2 of the 3 most powerful politicians in  America 78 and 80

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I think this is an incredibly prescient post. For Bitcoin, see also Tesla and other rock-star "investments".

The $64 thousand trillion question is whether they have sufficient numbers to affect big oil? Tens, if not hundreds, of millions of woke "investors", combined with moronic fund managers desperately scrabbling to out-woke one another, could mean a lot of pain for many on this thread, at least in the short term.

I had a recent Road to Damascus conversion re wokedom (Netflix, Sex Education, Series 2, if interested). I am starting to wonder whether the morons might win...

They will simply all pay for their education.Nothing new about that.Cycle will hit the woke very very hard most likely.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's not the Robinhood traders they're afraid of I think Harley, more the virtue signalling institutional investors led by Larry Fink at Blackrock. Once price signals that there is a supply problem and there's a trade to be had for another 5-10 years, they'll be back in like sharks in bloody water of course. My concern is that BP needs to retain the capacity to react to that.

Exactly.These guys arent stupid.They must see the macro picture growing.Its likely they know the potential and are talking stocks down so they can load up for their families trust funds.Those woke fund managers  are being played by masters of the game.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Barnsey, interesting graph. Would you know why shipping costs are high coming from China, but still low going from here to China? Or is the differential just a lead/lag thing, however it looks like those costs begun to rise approx 12 months ago which is also surprising?

Sorry if being a pain, but I admit i haven't kept up on the recent thread discussions over the rises in shipping costs. Hoping someone can recap for me on the cost dynamics happening here?

Because most go back empty.

[Harley]

 

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Hmmm, 'email to UKColumn', do you know about UKColumn Harley? 

I used to think them too conspiratorial, but to be fair haven't read anything from/about them in years... but then Covid happened (well more accurately the 'government response' to Covid happened)... perhaps i should revisit them, just for a laugh?!

 

I was wondering, a below par performance on my part!