Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Popuplights said:

Yes, used to stick veg oil into my old Peugeot 806. Easy decision when veg oil was less than a pound a litre. Take a funnel to the supermarket, fill up there and chuck the empties in their bins!!

Still far better than spending your money in the Issa brothers fuel station forecourts, according to the newspapers the brothers are apparently 'billionares' - and are currently buying Asda, but i notice they are now also after Top Shop!!! Something doesn't smell right, me thinks their business model - strange beast that it is emerging to be - is driven mainly by their private equity backers... oh well, that's modern day entrepreneurship i suppose (rant over)!

[ThoughtCriminal]

Vaccine rollout in over 80s is going well 🤦‍♂️

 

 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Now if I were a conspiracy theorist............

[JMD]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Ouch!!... Should we be worried about this story?

Wasn't this the reasoning expressed by the commodity guy Marin Katusa recently - i.e. his concern/prediction was that the borrowing costs for big oil would increase compared to the green energy companies, therefore giving 'green' a big advantage?

I know the arguments about the im-practicalities of green energy supply, but are say the highly indebted oilies (BP, etc) at any particular risk here?

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Viceroy / anyone......

What is Martin Armstrong's track record on forecasting ?

I enjoy reading the snippits you post, but calling his computer Socrates has something of the showman about it and then there is an under tone of hysteria. Combining those 2 traits makes me think of a particular pathology,such as in Freudian terms ( i know i know ) a "genital hysteric" perhaps.

When I first read the latest snippit above I felt he had contradicted himself,   re reading his thoughts im not so sure now. Any ways what are the chances of his calls being correct ?

Having read snippets posted on here of his stuff I just don't buy it. Especially the stuff around how he is some genius level dude who has done some super complex programming to create some clever model that helps him with extremely detailed and long range forecasts. There's the faint impression of the conman, maybe just me not understanding his stuff. I'm happy to be corrected.

On the super clever computer model, why don't goldman or Morgan with their literal armies of quant geniuses develop a similar thing.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

I know its fantastic,shaking out weak hands as expected who think the rise was a one off and Biden will kill them all.The market doesnt want to reward every Tom Dick and Harry and the sectors that will provide the biggest profits will continue to shake people out.All those woke funds will go into the biggest inflation cycle of two generations without inflation loving assets.Hopefully they stay down a while to give more choices for divi's flowing in.Deficits will start to hit next year and build up to 2025 in oil and gas.Massive profits towards the end of the cycle,lots of headfakes along the way.

[DurhamBorn]

 

 

35 minutes ago, JMD said:

Ouch!!... Should we be worried about this story?

Wasn't this the reasoning expressed by the commodity guy Marin Katusa recently - i.e. his concern/prediction was that the borrowing costs for big oil would increase compared to the green energy companies, therefore giving 'green' a big advantage?

I know the arguments about the im-practicalities of green energy supply, but are say the highly indebted oilies (BP, etc) at any particular risk here?

We want all this as contrarians,its part of the massive bull run over the cycle.Big oil can self fund,its the smaller players who will leave the market and that means less oil coming onstream.Green energy isnt a threat to oil or gas,Nuclear is and as long as that remains out of favour we will be laughing.

[Hunty]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

They are only a few % away from the 'stop losses' I set to ditch 50% of BP and Shell just in case they re test the March lows so I can bank some profits in this Stocks and Shares ISA. However I'm fully prepared I might have to buy them again for anything upto 10% more than I sell them for if my gamble doesn't pay off.

The support was at 2.85; it crashed through it as we thought it would do, thus in search of the gap at 2.72.

The bottom of this rising channel is ~265, but it should hold at 270. Should, but could hedge a little lower.

272 on the 50 MA daily and 277 for the  200 MA. The 50 MA should cross the 200 MA soon.

Thus signalling a strong rise in the long run.

The market is shaking out the bed wetter's.

Top up on these dips. Long hold for me.

GL.

 

[planit]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Now if I were a conspiracy theorist............

We need to compare that to 70+ deaths, if there is no divergence on figures then vaccines have made no difference up to now.

 

If they are worse then 

[DoINeedOne]

pension funds in the future 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Hunty said:

The support was at 2.85; it crashed through it as we thought it would do, thus in search of the gap at 2.72.

The bottom of this rising channel is ~265, but it should hold at 270. Should, but could hedge a little lower.

272 on the 50 MA daily and 277 for the  200 MA. The 50 MA should cross the 200 MA soon.

Thus signalling a strong rise in the long run.

The market is shaking out the bed wetter's.

Top up on these dips. Long hold for me.

GL.

 

You (like others) have obviously seen this coming but not sold and re-bought for more units. Temporary weak handed bed wetter and proud of it

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

pension funds in the future 

Even if you thought it was the right call it takes a Gordon Brown level of idiocy to announce you are selling before you do.

Good news for us though. The time to buy more approaches.

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Even if you thought it was the right call it takes a Gordon Brown level of idiocy to announce you are selling before you do.

Good news for us though. The time to buy more approaches.

The woke left mean it,no doubt about that,Pelosi has put $1million into Tesla 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-stock-pelosi-bet-biden-administration

Its incredible to think how corrupt the dems are so they will do all they can to push green energy.They will run up against rising rates once we get into the cycle though.All these funds,Biden,government here,EU governments etc are all placing policy based on fully engaged CBs.Those CBs will stop printing within 18 months,maybe within 12.

Of course the left really wants to remove transport etc from ordinary people,its political,not climate related.2022 to 2025 massive uplift in fossil fuel prices.

[Popuplights]

6 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

This is where the West, especially Germany is going to fall flat on its face as they are too inflexible to even contemplate personalised customisation of product.

Ordnung ist Ordnung. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

6 hours ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

 

59 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Even if you thought it was the right call it takes a Gordon Brown level of idiocy to announce you are selling before you do.

Good news for us though. The time to buy more approaches.

 

@Yadda yadda yaddaTotally AGREE, what caught my eye though was the above from AWW in a round about way, this is a similar CONTRARY moment to that idiot "Gordon Brown SELL GOLD" ... This time OIL!

 

Oh golly Boys & Girls are WE going to CLEAN UP!

 

 

[Popuplights]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Ex-Governor Carney is now on the climate change side.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/12/01/mark-carneys-new-climate-change-job-comes-with-new-clout.html

 

Carney would sell his own mother for a few dollars (CAN)

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.ft.com/content/8e69d4da-00d2-4ada-96f0-b5dc5c7ca40a

BP and Shell have the two biggest charging networks now and will wipe out the others by pumping in capital.Those funds are dumping the companies who will end up owning a big chunk of green infrastructure 

 

[Popuplights]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.ft.com/content/8e69d4da-00d2-4ada-96f0-b5dc5c7ca40a

BP and Shell have the two biggest charging networks now and will wipe out the others by pumping in capital.Those funds are dumping the companies who will end up owning a big chunk of green infrastructure 

 

Yeah, I noticed that too. 

As part of my retirement I get to talk to an IFA. Bloke looked at my portfolio, reckoned it was insanely risky, and then said I ought to sell my tranche of XOM that I got through the share save plan at a massive discount! I will stick to making my own decisions I think, guided by this thread. 

[Talking Monkey]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The woke left mean it,no doubt about that,Pelosi has put $1million into Tesla 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-stock-pelosi-bet-biden-administration

Its incredible to think how corrupt the dems are so they will do all they can to push green energy.They will run up against rising rates once we get into the cycle though.All these funds,Biden,government here,EU governments etc are all placing policy based on fully engaged CBs.Those CBs will stop printing within 18 months,maybe within 12.

Of course the left really wants to remove transport etc from ordinary people,its political,not climate related.2022 to 2025 massive uplift in fossil fuel prices.

DB what's the political driver to want to remove transport from ordinary people

[sancho panza]

On 24/01/2021 at 16:57, dnb24 said:

Might help with direction of travel Over next 5-10 years, CANZUK looks pretty much nailed on - Gregory Copley on this-

https://audioboom.com/posts/7777025-if-biden-abandons-the-uk-its-only-choice-will-be-canzuk-gregory-r-copley-defense-and-foreign?playlist_direction=forward

The political fallout alluded to between UK and USA in the Copley piece is interesting and Douglas Murray also weighs in on this with this piece-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9179953/DOUGLAS-MURRAY-Left-stop-fawning-Joe-Biden-fear-wont-end-well.html

 

Funny you shoudl psot this,I was thinking about the fall of Rome the other day with regard to the USA.End of an era.Just hope we get one more flight to safety in the dollar.

Liked this bit

'There is something of the late Roman empire about this, the arrogance of a ruling elite in terminal decline. The world's most powerful man gets into office at a time of unprecedented crisis and one of his first priorities is to ensure that men who identify as women should be allowed to use female changing rooms and pulverise any woman he comes across in competitive sports. All in the name of equality, obviously.

It didn't end well for Rome, and I fear it won't end well for America.'

 

 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB what's the political driver to want to remove transport from ordinary people

Carbon hysteria, Great Reset, green, etc.  

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Carbon hysteria, Great Reset, green, etc.  

covid in cars (and buses)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

19 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB what's the political driver to want to remove transport from ordinary people

I'll be interested in his answer too. Not sure if they are myself. Three possible I can think of.

1. They believe it is best for the long term if the plebs don't pollute the environment and use resources too quickly.

2. They are proper socialists and want to level everyone beneath down as levelling up isn't possible.

3. We get in their way. Much better if we're stuck in the cities using public transport. We clog up airports, roads, tourist destinations, galleries, museums and countryside that their patrons would rather have to themselves.

The first is the least worst. Likely that 1 is cover for 2 which achieves 3.

DB might have a better idea 

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

covid in cars (and buses)

what you laughing at im serious.

"The woke left mean it,no doubt about that,Pelosi has put $1million into Tesla 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-stock-pelosi-bet-biden-administration"

I notice pelosi isnt too well liked by many people either, Ive no love for her, but mainly because i often wondered what happened to my dads false teeth after he died, i couldnt find them anywhere, but ive got an idea that theyve made it into her old gob by the look of it.

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, Viceroy said:

 

Europe is in trouble. Our capital flow models show movement to the USA for higher yield, but also to the Chinese market with a yield of about 3% and a depth of $16 trillion. This is how China eventually becomes the financial capital of the world. It is a gradual process by post-2032 after the UN and World Economic Forum have undermined Western society, the only rational place will be Asia. China is also working very diligently to expand its own market to reduce its reliance on the US consumer market. Things are changing if you pay attention.

There are many who keep preaching the demise of the dollar and fail utterly to understand even what a reserve currency is and why. All they focus on is debt and prognosticate the doom of the dollar. The IMF has acknowledged the dominance of the dollar as the reserve currency and that it is likely to endure. Yet at the same time, they are looking at a transition to digital currencies and trying to fathom if this will even change the landscape. Others are warning that now that Biden will be president, he will ensure the dollar crumbles because they will be handing out money like crazy.

The real threat to the dollar and will not be a digital currency. Instead, it is the realization that the IMF and the West cannot be trusted. China is moving to a digital currency at lightning speed but it is also setting up through its modern silk-road the alternative to bother the US consumer market and the Western SWIFT world of control. China is developing an alternative to allow it to clear and use its own digital currency in a new world 
The DEMISE of the dollar is underway, but it will take time. It appears the dollar will lose that status by 2028 and it will be gone by 2036. What BigTech is doing right now with their insane censorship is in fact the overthrow of the United States and setting it in fact for the collapse that our Computer has been forecasting for post-2032.

In all my studies, the critical factor has never been the quantity of money. That is always what people point to with hindsight. It is the crack in CONFIDENCE that starts the process and then as governments are confronted by capital fleeing, that is when the debasement begins. It appears that the election of Biden is indeed the crack in confidence we have been waiting for. The markets will reveal their true vote perhaps in February/March.
This election has been the crack in confidence we have been waiting for. Trump came in on the Pi target right to the day - 2017.05 inauguration of Trump. Now the next two waves will be authoritarian and they intend to eliminate "populism" which means ending free elections. Harris will take the presidency from Biden and two terms of 4 years takes her into 2032.

As I've said before Viceroy,Armstrongs real strength as a commentator is when he steps back and uses his not inconsiderable economic historical knowledge to put the current scenario in the widest of timreframes.

Thanks for psoting.

7 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

Interesting sell off in the majors.

given this