Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

No energy, no Netflix 

Dynamos as the most woke of the woke like to cycle!

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I read an article about oil and gas firms (posted it on here) one was Tellurian. I think it's comparable to yours on the monthly charts. I did a watchlist of all the firms and it's up 265% since I created it 20th Nov. (No I didn't )

Oh yes you did, you're just trying to be "sensitive" bless you!

[Don Coglione]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Dynamos as the most woke of the woke like to cycle!

And we are back to Black Mirror! Smart guy, that Charlie Brooker.

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

Nope, great bit of info that thanks 

Another BP:

 

Quote

 

Refinitiv Newscasts – BP all but stops looking for more oil

25 Jan 2021

Click the following link to watch video: https://share.newscasts.refinitiv.com/link?entryId=1_hdboiziv&referenceId=tag:reuters.com,2021:newsml_OVDWPJC0B_930&pageId=RefinitivNewscasts Source: Reuters

Description: UK oil major BP has drastically scaled back the team that looks for more oil as part of its plan to transition to renewable energy sources, according to company insiders. Julian Satterthwaite reports. Short Link: https://refini.tv/3peqK04 Video Transcript:

It was always the engine of profits at BP. But now the UK oil major has drastically scaled back the team that looks for new reserves of crude. Company sources have told Reuters that the unit has been cut to fewer than 100 people. That's down from a peak of more than 700 a few years ago. The firm wouldn't comment on the report. But it's all part of a big upheaval triggered by Chief Executive Bernard Looney.

The world does have a carbon budget. It is finite, and it is running out fast and we need a rapid transition to net zero. Society has got to deliver on the Paris goals.

Over the next decade, he wants to cut BP's oil output by a million barrels per day or about 40%. At the same time, its output of renewable energy is supposed to rise 20-fold. Looney is driving the exploration budget down to around $400 million per year. That's less than a tenth of what it was in 2010. Investment is flowing into new sources of revenue instead. Last year, BP said it had bought a majority stake in Finite Carbon. The US firm pays landowners to manage forests, generating so-called "carbon offset credits" that can be sold to polluters. For all that, oil and gas will remain BP's main source of income until at least 2030. Beyond that date though, it could start to look like a very different company.

 

 

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Perception = reality. 

It's called postmodernism, really!

[jamtomorrow]

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

Market stability, protect Doris, blah, blah, blah.........we must regulate!

Yes, it might get worse before it gets better.

Way I see it, it's the responsibility of the previous generation to lay foundations for the next generation to thrive, with the moral hazard that if/when that doesn't happen it's the responsibility of the next generation to tear down eveything the previous generation holds dear and remake it.

The generational contract has been in default for some time, but I suppose we'll find a way of putting off the inevitable a while longer.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Dynamos as the most woke of the woke like to cycle!

They like you and me to cycle! 

I can charge for a horse and cart (Carbon neutral, sustainable, congestion exempt) to lug tonnes of gear to site on my next job in London I suppose.  Hay extra, no poop scooping priced for.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Oh yes you did, you're just trying to be "sensitive" bless you!

Oh no I didn't, not a penny. In second place is Antero +60% (Not a penny). There's only one big loser NextDecade -41%, don't know how they managed it looking at the list but up 9% yesterday (Not a penny)

[Democorruptcy]

I was wondering who gained from Biden cancelling the Keystone pipeline. BP in there again, you can't keep the little bugger down!

 

Quote

 

RPT – Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline sees fortunes shine after KXL's demise

25 Jan 2021

(Repeats Jan 24 story for additional subscribers; no changes)

By Rod Nickel and Steve Scherer

WINNIPEG/OTTAWA, Jan 24 (Reuters) – The expansion of Canada's government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline assumes greater importance for the oil sector after the cancellation of rival Keystone XL reduced future options to carry crude, potential buyers say.

Trans Mountain Corp TMC.UL , a government corporation, is spending C$12.6 billion ($9.9 billion) to nearly triple capacity to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 14% increase from current total Canadian capacity.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government bought the 68-year-old pipeline in 2018 when previous owner Kinder Morgan faced legal hurdles to expand the 1,150-kilometre (715-mile) line running from Alberta to the British Columbia coast. Ottawa has always said it would find new owners.

This week, U.S. President Joe Biden revoked the presidential permit for TC Energy's Keystone XL pipeline (KXL), undoing efforts by former President Donald Trump to build the line that would have supplied U.S. refiners with 830,000 bpd of Canadian oil. ...

That decision has made the case for completing Trans Mountain's expansion stronger.

"This pipeline is even more valuable now," said Joe Dion, chief executive of Western Indigenous Pipeline Group, one of several First Nations groups interested in buying Trans Mountain.

"Everybody thought Trudeau wasn't going to get things done in Canada, and he's the one who successfully got a pipeline over Trump." Trans Mountain takes on more strategic importance with KXL cancelled, but it does not mean his group would pay more for it, Dion said.

Trans Mountain has completed 22% of the expansion project, called TMX, which is scheduled for service in December 2022. Suncor Energy Inc , Canadian Natural Resources Ltd and BP PLC are among the committed shippers who have secured 80% of its additional capacity long-term.

"All eyes are on TMX," said Delbert Wapass, executive chair of Project Reconciliation, a First Nations coalition that hopes to buy 51% this year.

Sharing Trans Mountain's profits would help improve living conditions on First Nations, he said.

Canadian companies have long struggled to secure top price for their crude as pipeline congestion forced them to sell at a discount.

However reduced fuel demand due to pandemic travel lockdowns and advancing pipeline expansions have eased the flow. Even without KXL, Canada may have surplus export pipeline capacity once TMX enters service, said Matt Taylor, director of infrastructure research at investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt, who expects modest oil production growth to 2025.

Ottawa plans to sell the pipeline once there are fewer risks to completion and consultations wrap up with First Nations, said Finance Ministry spokeswoman Katherine Cuplinskas. TMX has faced stiff opposition over spill concerns.

A second government source said it bought Trans Mountain for its strategic importance, as its Pacific Ocean connection enables shippers to move oil to Asia, as well as the United States, which buys most Canadian crude.

Now its importance is even greater, the source said.

Enbridge Inc , which runs North America's Mainline oil network, also stands to gain from KXL's demise. It intends to sell long-term contracts for most of the Mainline's capacity, pending regulator approval, rather than continue to ration it on the spot market.

KXL's cancellation frees up long-term commitments by shippers who may now sign Mainline contracts, Taylor said. ($1 = 1.2710 Canadian dollars)

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

16 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Refinitiv Newscasts – BP all but stops looking for more oil

25 Jan 2021

Wow that's a great find @Democorruptcy and with a Chief Executive called Bernard Looney

Just repasting the following bit again as will his job be on the line if he doesn't do the following?

"Over the next decade, he wants to cut BP's oil output by a million barrels per day or about 40%. At the same time, its output of renewable energy is supposed to rise 20-fold. Looney is driving the exploration budget down to around $400 million per year. That's less than a tenth of what it was in 2010."

[AWW]

30 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

The $64 thousand trillion question is whether they have sufficient numbers to affect big oil? Tens, if not hundreds, of millions of woke "investors", combined with moronic fund managers desperately scrabbling to out-woke one another, could mean a lot of pain for many on this thread, at least in the short term.

It might mean a lot of bargains. The fundamental case for oil integrateds won't evaporate and the future cash flows that we're all buying will still be there.

If we are about to see the mother of all main street recessions, the footsoldiers of the culture war will soon start caring more about their energy bills and food costs than their CO2 emissions.

Also, those economies with real growth potential aren't going to start caring about CO2 at least until their own local environments are cleaned up. I'll start worrying when the people of Delhi stop shitting in the street.

[CVG]

Hydrogen investing article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hydrogen-stocks-breakingviews/breakingviews-how-to-pick-the-hydrogen-industrys-future-amazon-idUSKBN29R1HU

[AWW]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

youngsters (similar profile to those elsewhere today) had money but not enough to buy major assets such as houses so would indulge in significant frivolous spending like a craze of sprinkling gold dust on their food.  

I think this phenomenon is largely already here. It's not unknown for young 'uns to spend most of their wages leasing a brand new Merc and Instagramming from exclusive villas on Ibiza. Can't blame them when they're expected to work for ten years to save a deposit and then forty more to pay off the mortgage (round my way, I'm aware it's a different equation elsewhere)

[Talking Monkey]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Funny you shoudl psot this,I was thinking about the fall of Rome the other day with regard to the USA.End of an era.Just hope we get one more flight to safety in the dollar.

Liked this bit

'There is something of the late Roman empire about this, the arrogance of a ruling elite in terminal decline. The world's most powerful man gets into office at a time of unprecedented crisis and one of his first priorities is to ensure that men who identify as women should be allowed to use female changing rooms and pulverise any woman he comes across in competitive sports. All in the name of equality, obviously.

It didn't end well for Rome, and I fear it won't end well for America.'

 

 

The USA in the past year has shown the extent of the decay at its core. Definitely echos with the later stages of the Roman empire. It will probably limp on for a fair few decades though

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This.They want to concentrate people in cities and save the resources for themselves.Its pretty obvious whats going on.Or start from a much lower base.

One strand of my strategy is to get out of London by 2025 to a smallish market town. I shudder to think of the chaos that is going to ensue in some of the mega cities in the developing world when food and energy shortages hit.

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, CVG said:

Hydrogen investing article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hydrogen-stocks-breakingviews/breakingviews-how-to-pick-the-hydrogen-industrys-future-amazon-idUSKBN29R1HU

DYOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

.....But you can help with mine!

.....Time to dust down that (very early) WIP spreadsheet of mine. 

.....Further corrections? 

Advanced Battery Technologies-Battery stocks
AFC Energy-Hydrogen, fuel cells
AKASOL AG-Lithium
Albermale-Lithium resources
AMG ADVANCED MET-Lithium
Atlantica Yield-Utilities
Axion Power International-Battery stocks
Ballard Power Systems-Blue hydrogen, fuel cells
BEIJING EASPRI-A-Lithium
BioSolar-Battery stocks
Blink Charging-EV charging
Bloom Energy-Blue hydrogen, fuel cells
Boralex-Utilities
BP-Blue hydrogen
BYD Company-Lithium
Canadian Solar-Solar
CBAK Energy Technology-Battery stocks
Cell Impact AB-Hydrogen, fuel cells
Ceres Power Holdings-Fuel cells
Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Utilities
Companhia Paranaense de Energia-Utilities
Contact Energy-Utilities
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co-Lithium
Cummins-Electrolysis
Dais Analytic-Fuel cells
Daqo New Energy-Information Technology
Doosan Fuel Cell-Industrials
Dresser-Rand Group-Fuel cells
DYNAPACK-Lithium
EDP Renovaveis-Utilities
Eguana Technologies-Battery stocks
Electrovaya-Battery stocks
Encavis-Utilities
Enel-Renewables
Enercon -Wind turbine
EnerSys-Lithium
Enlight Renewable Energy-Utilities
Enphase Energy-Software
EnSync, Inc-Battery stocks
Envision-Wind turbine
Equinor-Blue hydrogen
EVE ENERGY CO LTD-A-Lithium
First Solar-Solar components
Flux Power Holdings, Inc-Battery stocks
FuelCell Energy-Blue hydrogen fuel cells
GALAXY RESOURCES LTD-Lithium
GANFENG LITHIUM CO LTD-A-Lithium
GE-Wind turbine
Graftech International-Fuel cells
GS YUASA CORP-Lithium
Hazer Group Limited-Hydrogen
Highpower International-Fuel cells, battery stocks
HONBRIDGE HOLDINGS LTD-Lithium
HydroPhi Technologies Group, Inc. -Hydrogen
HyperSolar-Hydrogen
ILJIN MATERIALS CO LTD-Lithium
Impact Coatings AB-Fuel cells
Innergex Renewable Energy-Utilities
Invenergy-Wind turbine
Invinity Energy Systems-Battery stocks
IONEER LTD-Lithium
ITM Power-Hydrogen, electrolysis, fuel cells
JinkoSolar-Solar panels
Johnson Controls-Battery stocks
Kemet-Fuel cells
L&F CO LTD-Lithium
LG CHEM LTD-Lithium
Li Auto-EV manufacturing
Lithium Americas-Lithium
Lithium Technology Corporation-Battery stocks
Livent Corporation-Lithium
MagneGas Corporation-Hydrogen
McPhy Energy SA-Hydrogen, electrolysis, fuel cells
Meridian Energy-Utilities
MINERAL RESOURCES LTD-Lithium
MingYang-Wind turbine
mPhase Technologies-Battery stocks
myFC-Hydrogen, fuel cells
Nano One Materials Corp-Battery stocks
NAURA TECH GR -A-Lithium
Neah Power Systems-Fuel cells
NEL-Hydrogen storage
NEMASKA LITHIUM INC-Lithium
Neoen-Utilities
NextEra-Wind, solar
NGK Insulators Ltd-Battery stocks
Nikola Corporation -Hydrogen, fuel cells
Nio-EV manufacturing
Nordex -Wind turbine
OM Group-Battery stocks
Ormat Technologies-Utilities
OROCOBRE LTD-Lithium
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Parker Hannifin-Electrolysis
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Plug Power-Blue hydrogen, fuel cells
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Powercell Sweden-Hydrogen, fuel cells
PowerHouse Energy Group plc-Hydrogen
Powin Energy Corp-Battery stocks
Proton Power Systems-Hydrogen, fuel cells
Quantum Fuel Systems-Hydrogen
QuantumScape-EV lithium batteries
Redflow-Battery stocks
ReneSola-Solar
Renewable Energy Group-Energy
Saft Group-Battery stocks
SAMSUNG SDI CO LTD-Lithium
Scatec Solar-Utilities
SEwind-Wind turbine
SFC Energy AG-Fuel cells
SGRE (Siemens)-Wind turbine, electrolysis
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SHENZHEN CAPCH-A-Lithium
SHENZHEN YINGH-A-Lithium
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SOLARIA ENERGIA Y MEDIO AMBIENTE S-Utilities
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TESLA INC-Lithium
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TIANNENG POWER INTL LTD-Lithium
Ultralife-Battery stocks
Umicore-Fuel cells, battery stocks
VARTA AG-Lithium
Velodyne Lidar-EV components
Vendum Batteries-Battery stocks
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W-SCOPE CORP-Lithium
WUXI LEAD INTE-A-Lithium
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Xinjiang Goldwind-Wind turbine
Xinyi Solar Holdings-Information Technology
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DYOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hancock]

17 minutes ago, AWW said:

I think this phenomenon is largely already here. It's not unknown for young 'uns to spend most of their wages leasing a brand new Merc and Instagramming from exclusive villas on Ibiza. 

Id be willing to be this is done to look cool on Social Media as opposed to a fingers up at the system.

Younglings seem more brainwashed than ever with global warming, BLM and all that shite.

Even their raves look absolutely shite.

[Harley]

55 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Surely, at worst, investors leaving big oil would put a dent in capital appreciation. However, it would have minimal impact on dividends; and if dividends are unaffected and the share price stays low, the dividend yield would be very high.

Perhaps the lesson here is don't rely on huge capital appreciation of oil stocks. I think DB has indicated this too, when he says that they will keep on shaking out the weak hands, at least until later in the cycle.

Once the dividends get high enough, of course, people's moral righteousness will start to waver. Once it also becomes clear that BP and Shell are the foundations of the green energy infrastructure, then any money that principled investors still have left, after selling Tesla, Zoom, Amazon and Peloton, is likely to end up in big oil & gas, but maybe rather late in the cycle?

Time for a bit of perspective.

I suppose they could go always lower:

And that other "sin" stock, which never changed it's product:

[Loki]

I don't post big videos here but this is too relevant and thought-provoking not to.

It raises a very valid question about the independence of central banks. 

It mentions crypto currency controls and government crypto.  It also mentions the Orwellian lack of privacy and behaviour controls that would entail.

Don't worry about the kinda clickbaity thumbnail. The content is sound and not shouty. 

 

[geordie_lurch]

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

Time for a bit of perspective.  I suppose they could go always lower:

What do the 3 lines underneath mean / show in your opinion @Harley as even I can understand the top line?

[wherebee]

26 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

One strand of my strategy is to get out of London by 2025 to a smallish market town. I shudder to think of the chaos that is going to ensue in some of the mega cities in the developing world when food and energy shortages hit.

I was at a presentation by one of the Big US banks about 5 years ago where they mapped out their view of the world for the next 50 years, and investment strategy to go with it.  It was all about megacities growing ever bigger, huge urban populations, and suchlike.

I was the one in the room who asked what would happen in megacities when cheap food stopped, as it would at some point.  Wouldn't all investments get trashed? Never got a coherent answer.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

As an oldie, best I mention back in the 1980's+ Japan asset boom the youngsters (similar profile to those elsewhere today) had money but not enough to buy major assets such as houses so would indulge in significant frivolous spending like a craze of sprinkling gold dust on their food.  The economists sort of (needs revision) have a name for this phenomena.  Roll on and maybe the same, only to a far more powerful effect.  We need regulation, we need more non-asset (food, etc) inflation to mop up this dangerous excess!!!!! 

With the Gen Z’ers I work with, I think they are generally pissed off at the hand of cards they’ve been dealt and rightly so.

Politically I think it’s the same of all youth, the desperation of change and with the onslaught of the mainstream media narrative paving the way (Which has capitalised and infiltrated every avenue of their lives - far more than older generations).

They will never have the opportunity to have a house and a family all wrapped up and paid for at 30-40. They know the system has been stacked against them.

Hence that’s why I smiled at the GameStop debacle. Just a little nudge at the old hedge fund brigade (who’s been comfortable in their domain for ages) that have entered into the digital world. The Gen-Zers aren’t silly and can collaborate when needed and are for more interconnected which can turn things with enough numbers just to say f**k you.

That is also is what concerns me. Cycles, political madness, debt/capital flows, nothing being based on actual asset realisation. If we are truly experiencing the end of the western world power (like the downfall of Rome) and a transfer to a global world power the $ may as well be the Denarius without the precious metal content.

All the average Joe’s like us can do is prepare like we have done and hope for the best. We may still just be arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic however.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

I think this phenomenon is largely already here. It's not unknown for young 'uns to spend most of their wages leasing a brand new Merc and Instagramming from exclusive villas on Ibiza. Can't blame them when they're expected to work for ten years to save a deposit and then forty more to pay off the mortgage (round my way, I'm aware it's a different equation elsewhere)

Maybe a case of "get smart, not angry"?

1980's.....

2020's....

....And hopefully not just....

History rhymes, this or something else will come along....

You know when you're getting too old when you start having the urge to "tut"!!!!!!

Me, I just love the energy!  Hopefully it won't get exploited, as usual!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

....

That said, BP was I think the biggest 'finder' of oil through exploration last year of the western majors. How? Because of their share of Rosneft, who found by far the most worldwide. If their strategy is to 'hide' their organic growth in Russia, fine with me. If they sell their Rosneft stake (how could that sit well with the woke crowd), I'll be selling a chunk too.

Indeed, and how many Robinhood traders, etc have international market access.......!

[feed]

20 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

They will never have the opportunity to have a house and a family all wrapped up and paid for at 30-40. 

When was that ever the case.  The big moves (off the 90's bottom) started in 98/99 where i live.  Inflation (RPI) adjusted we still haven’t hit the 2008 peak. 

I remember a conversation with some of our grads a few years ago, their dissatisfaction of not being able to buy a place now they had jobs.  They seemed somewhat perturbed when we all explained that we hadn’t been able to get a place until we were all in our mid/late 30’s. 
 

and with buy, i mean get a mortgage.