Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Paying customers get priority 

And those who know how to ask and make a cup of tea get Elite status!

[Harley]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Tradesmen [and their long-suffering partners) are not any different....my Aunt waited 10 years for her kitchen to be completely finished by my Uncle who's a builder ! :-)))

I have loads to do but what's the point when you know some other wonker's going to rip it all out too in a few years! 

[Don Coglione]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

I think lightweight is key for everything now......I want a sub 160kg motorbike.......I want a campervan that weighs less than 1500kg; impossible you may think? Just use a French car as a base....actually how about a 2CV campervan? Sounds like an interesting novelty 

Be getting thee one of these:

https://www.husqvarna-motorcycles.com/en-gb/models/vitpilen/vitpilen-701-2020.html

[Don Coglione]

46 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

 For my last effort the other half left me fixing a wobbly toilet seat and came back to find the bathroom suite in the garden, the floor up, and one wall demolished.  It was 6 months until that room was back in action.  Good job she's more patient than me.

Christ, I would struggle to go 6 hours without a shit, never mind 6 months!

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Be getting thee one of these:

https://www.husqvarna-motorcycles.com/en-gb/models/vitpilen/vitpilen-701-2020.html

There I was thinking they only made axes!

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Paying customers get priority 

And he certainly paid for it...ten years of nagging! :-) :-):-)

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

It's a superb way to look at things at the current time.  I need to read up on what that was really like in practice, say in WW2, to as you say, be forewardned and forearmed.

After writing it i think war economy thesis may sound a bit melodramatic, but anyway I'm really just channelling Copley, from his book - The New Total War of the 21st Century. In terms of reading I'd recommend it, as Copley has a good handle on history and uses it to good effect to frame his predictions for the looming politico-economic shanannigans that lay await for us all!

[JMD]

12 hours ago, feed said:

 

I prefer democracy, but I would think hard currency and democracy are probably ultimately incompatible.
That’s the reason we have moved to soft currencies to allow this form of wealth redistribution.

I know this is more what happens after this cycle.  But it starts now, politically, it takes a decade to move populations.  
 

Overall I agree with that sentiment. But my thoughts are I don't think hard money and democracy need be incompatible. If the US (I know it's a republic, not a democracy), but if its founding fathers had stipulated hard money in their constitution then the country would still have its gold standard... Maybe it's (so called) democracies (whatever they are?) and constitutions that are incompatible!? - I'm serious, 'democracy' is a very nebulous concept. Instead, It is the settled rules and constraints that are the decisive factors. 'Democracy' im afraid is a political weapon of mass distraction!                                                                                                           Property rights, rule of law, (the rights/freedoms eventually codified within) The English bill of rights, covers most of what's needed. Hard code all these things on the Blockchain and youd have something epic!! 

[JMD]

The great Felix Zulauf. Brilliant description of our 'new normal' economic paradigm. Well worth the hour listen.

[nirvana]

14 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Be getting thee one of these:

https://www.husqvarna-motorcycles.com/en-gb/models/vitpilen/vitpilen-701-2020.html

christ it's a single

downsizing does work, I have something with 3 cylinders and it goes quite well 

 

[CVG]

Quick shout. Does anyone have a HL ISA? I just did a routine check and my account shows most of my Share positions closed down to about £20 each!!! An apparent loss of £XX K. Transaction history doesn't reflect that so it must be a software glitch. Anyone else?

[AWW]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Maybe it's (so called) democracies (whatever they are?) and constitutions that are incompatible!?

Exactly this, as it makes it very difficult for the demos to change the existing, sacred rules.

This is one of the things that will eventually lead to the collapse of the EU.

[Noallegiance]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Overall I agree with that sentiment. But my thoughts are I don't think hard money and democracy need be incompatible. If the US (I know it's a republic, not a democracy), but if its founding fathers had stipulated hard money in their constitution then the country would still have its gold standard... Maybe it's (so called) democracies (whatever they are?) and constitutions that are incompatible!? - I'm serious, 'democracy' is a very nebulous concept. Instead, It is the settled rules and constraints that are the decisive factors. 'Democracy' im afraid is a political weapon of mass distraction!                                                                                                           Property rights, rule of law, (the rights/freedoms eventually codified within) The English bill of rights, covers most of what's needed. Hard code all these things on the Blockchain and youd have something epic!! 

Hard money is in the US constitution. It's the only constitutional currency.

So any time a comical US politician tries to upend another by claiming they're being 'unconstitutional', laugh because every single one of them advocates highly unconstitutional behaviour every minute of every day.

Democracy is also just a fancy word for mob rule. It's the very reason why we traded fast-moving musket balls with the fledgling US. And why, following breaking away from the commonwealth, America was the go-to land for freedom and choice for a century. No corporate tax. No income tax. That is until the left infiltrated it and started clamping down on people in the name of freedom.

Now, there is nowhere left to run. 

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, CVG said:

Quick shout. Does anyone have a HL ISA? I just did a routine check and my account shows most of my Share positions closed down to about £20 each!!! An apparent loss of £XX K. Transaction history doesn't reflect that so it must be a software glitch. Anyone else?

All looks fine for me on the app

[Bear Hug]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

The great Felix Zulauf. Brilliant description of our 'new normal' economic paradigm. Well worth the hour listen.

This is great. Last 3 minutes provide a summary roadmap for this yeae. Mostly consistent with David Hunter. 

[CVG]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

All looks fine for me on the app

I just logged back in and everything is back to normal! Luckily I took a screenshot to prove that I wasn't going mad.

This is great preparation for how you will feel after the BK. It's just that I was anticipating 80% - not 97%. It is also good to know that my punt on AT&T was indeed the correct choice!

[jamtomorrow]

46 minutes ago, CVG said:

Quick shout. Does anyone have a HL ISA? I just did a routine check and my account shows most of my Share positions closed down to about £20 each!!! An apparent loss of £XX K. Transaction history doesn't reflect that so it must be a software glitch. Anyone else?

HL is an absolute f***ing joke. The statements are so opaque, the only way to check they haven't siphoned anything off is to run a complete set of records yourself. Which shouldn't be necessary.

IWeb much better in that regard, but unfortunately goes to sh*t in a hot market

[CVG]

Just now, jamtomorrow said:

HL is an absolute f***ing joke. The statements are so opaque, the only way to check they haven't siphoned anything off is to run a complete set of records yourself. Which shouldn't be necessary.

IWeb much better in that regard, but unfortunately goes to sh*t in a hot market

I gave them a call to make sure that they were on top of things. Apparently it was a currency conversion issue! That's not an entirely satisfactory answer given that some foreign currency stocks were unaffected, e.g. AT&T. So they probably just don't know. It's probably just the kids playing with Agile again.

[Bricks & Mortar]

8 minutes ago, CVG said:

I just logged back in and everything is back to normal! Luckily I took a screenshot to prove that I wasn't going mad.

This is great preparation for how you will feel after the BK. It's just that I was anticipating 80% - not 97%. It is also good to know that my punt on AT&T was indeed the correct choice!

I've noticed that, every day, for about an hour after the close, the numbers on the screen are complete garbage.   They seem to be okay up to the close, then totally unreliable for about an hour afterward.  Possible that some of the numbers in that hour reflect the opening prices rather than closing, but I haven't nailed wtf is going on. 
I've learned to take my dinner about that time.

[M S E Refugee]

What do people think of Cement Producers in the coming reflation cycle?

I am building a position in Steppe Cement at the moment and I also like LafargeHolcim.

[DurhamBorn]

48 minutes ago, CVG said:

I just logged back in and everything is back to normal! Luckily I took a screenshot to prove that I wasn't going mad.

This is great preparation for how you will feel after the BK. It's just that I was anticipating 80% - not 97%. It is also good to know that my punt on AT&T was indeed the correct choice!

At least the Telcos held up for us 

[feed]

9 hours ago, JMD said:

Overall I agree with that sentiment. But my thoughts are I don't think hard money and democracy need be incompatible. If the US (I know it's a republic, not a democracy), but if its founding fathers had stipulated hard money in their constitution then the country would still have its gold standard... Maybe it's (so called) democracies (whatever they are?) and constitutions that are incompatible!? - I'm serious, 'democracy' is a very nebulous concept. Instead, It is the settled rules and constraints that are the decisive factors. 'Democracy' im afraid is a political weapon of mass distraction!                                                                                                           Property rights, rule of law, (the rights/freedoms eventually codified within) The English bill of rights, covers most of what's needed. Hard code all these things on the Blockchain and youd have something epic!! 

if you go back to the founding fathers it's not democracy.  Because slavery.  

But, i think you need to look at Napiers point about when we really got democracy. The post war era.

Obviously 71 is key, but it was a result of 44, it was inevitable.  The demand on dollars would always overwhelm it. Keynes said as much in 43 i think.  44 was politically expedient at the time, the US was half of the worlds GDP, but it started us down the road of soft currencies.  

i don't know if the world needed democracy after the horrors of the wars and soft currencies were an answer, or it was all a series of unintended consequences after the US took on the roll of the reserve currency.  

but, as always there is that elephant in the room for the late 20th that comes into play. 

Oil.

The anthropologists have a theory, and i'm grossly over simplifying it here, it goes cultural complexity increases with the availability of energy. Such that the greater the abundance of cheap energy the more complex a societies culture will be. 

The US has had more or less free energy for the last 50 years, due to it's reserve status, soft currencies and it's hegemonic dominance.  Democracy and the cult of the individual is an incredible complex and diverse culture. Very difficult to maintain without an abundance. It's a culture that may influence the globe, but certainly isn't universal.  Good luck trying to find trans-waffle in sub Saharan Africa.  

There is a relationship, between cheap energy, soft currencies and cultural complicity & democracies.  I have no idea how they are linked, what leads what or how they move or align.  But, fiat is in it's death throws, energy is about to get much more expensive - which i think leads us back to where most of humanity has existed.

Homogeneous, hard currency controlled societies. And most human societies have been feudalistic some sense, we are hierarchical animals.  Only this time we've developed technologies for control beyond the comprehension of our ancestors. 

And i don't think crypto's are the answer, it's availability is just as much a function of energy, maybe even more so.  And even it is the basis for a hard currency, then it's the owners setting the rules, a new elite, which isn't democracy.  

But these are just my half formed thoughts.  More than happy for someone to explain why it's utter nonsense.   
 

[Bricormortis]

 the Felix Zulauf video posted by JMD above prompted me to have a quick look at Korean ETF's available on the HL website. I thought I would post the top 10 holdings of the following ETF for anyone interested. I dont know why Samsung  are listed twice., some co's I have never heard of on that list also.

Says on the blurb they engage in securities lending, so that sounds totally iffy in the current environment, but the list of stocks is useful for anyone who has the research skills.

 

HSBC ETFS PLC KOREA CAPPED UCITS ETF USD (GBP) (HKOR)

SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO27.43%

SK HYNIX INC5.80%

SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO4.29%

NAVER CORP3.78%

LG CHEM3.72%

SAMSUNG SDI3.65%

HYUNDAI MOTOR CO3.09%

CELLTRION INC2.79%

KAKAO CORP2.27%

KIA MOTORS CORP2.01%

[DoINeedOne]

10 hours ago, JMD said:

The great Felix Zulauf. Brilliant description of our 'new normal' economic paradigm. Well worth the hour listen.

Just sat and watched this, Great video 

[ONC]

Telcos having no problems hiking prices (as predicted by DB)

From dailymail,  “Telcom giants all hike broadband cost at same time”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/bills/article-9450269/Broadband-prices-rise-Heres-cheaper-deal.html