Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Three take aways from all this:

. This is part of a larger trend underway in stocks and elsewhere:  the privatisation (prole exclusion) from wealth and its creation.

. The Government has no qualms about interferring in anything, indeed they immediately see it as their duty

. Yet again, people are boiling frogs living solely in the now who will sign away so much without much forethought.  This latest is just a continuation of an existing pattern of abuse.

This is more that just about sport but most will pretend or believe that is all it is.

 

Indeed,and what i find interesting is the fact football hasnt cared about fans for 15 years+.Its just an argument over who the parasite sucking the blood should be now.Though i admit iv never understood why people watch it anyway.

It seems now they can control private wealth through legislation.Notice today in the governments latest green targets it mentions people need to walk and cycle more.Of course it means ordinary people,not them.

In the US the annual rumour about legislation on nicotine levels.They might try for it this time and iv heard it every year since 1994 .

As more people rely on the state for income,less people care about the theft and destruction of capital.

[Mapper]

1 hour ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

According to the lead story on the BBC this morning, the proles are busy making banners about some fellas kicking a ball about

Can't even rely on the proles these days!

Time to invest in Greggs and Chipperfield's.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Another poke in the eye for tobacco.....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/cigarette-makers-plunge-on-news-that-us-may-curb-nicotine/ar-BB1fPg9b

Might buy some more BATS 

 

I first bought BAT around the time the first report on this came out in 1994 .Its an annual thing,though they might try to get it in with the Biden lot.Years of legal wrangling though,maybe decades.Tobacco companies are used to all this.FDA controls things and they are evidence based.Iv dealt with them in pharma and they are very very careful.

[M S E Refugee]

12 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Another poke in the eye for tobacco.....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/cigarette-makers-plunge-on-news-that-us-may-curb-nicotine/ar-BB1fPg9b

Might buy some more BATS 

 

I just sold out of all them yesterday!

It is open season on any business that isn't Woke.

 

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Wife also heard on the radio yesterday that retail footfall last week was 80% up on the week before

Here we go, that's how things will be presented.  80% up on something that was down say 80%, is still down x% from the original level.  This is what I keep telling myself when I hold my nose and buy stocks that have bounced.

PS:  Sorry, can't be arsed to do the mathematics and not that important. 

[Fully Detached]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Here we go, that's how things will be presented.  80% up on something that was down say 80%, is still down x% from the original level.  This is what I keep telling myself when I hold my nose and buy stocks that have bounced.

PS:  Sorry, can't be arsed to do the mathematics and not that important. 

Yep, every time I look at a stock that gets mentioned on here it looks overpriced until you switch to the 5 year chart. t which point it looks a lot more attractive.

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I first bought BAT around the time the first report on this came out in 1994 .Its an annual thing,though they might try to get it in with the Biden lot.Years of legal wrangling though,maybe decades.Tobacco companies are used to all this.FDA controls things and they are evidence based.Iv dealt with them in pharma and they are very very careful.

Haven't read the article but wouldn't people just, er, buy more ciggies!  .  Funny, my system suggested the latested uptick in tobacco stocks was fake.  A1!  Might be able to buy some overseas stocks if this is a general rout, but not that Japanese one as this won't help improve their balance sheet!

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just sold out of all them yesterday!

It is open season on any business that isn't Woke.

 

Question is whether that's just in the "Kingdoms of Wokeness" or also in the far off "Lands of Old"!  And will the "Dark Lords of Woke" prevent us little people in our perilous journey for real precious!

[Hancock]

30 minutes ago, Harley said:

. The Government has no qualms about interferring in anything, indeed they immediately see it as their duty.  Plus they want to condition you to think it's good and provide cover for what they really want to do.

The govt/CB's got involved to hand JP Morgan all these billions via the printing press, so the govt (pretend) to get involved to stop their bosses (JP Morgan) ruining the preferred sport of the masses.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Question is whether that's just in the "Kingdoms of Wokeness" or also in the far off "Lands of Old"!  And will the "Dark Lords of Woke" prevent us little people in our perilous journey for real precious!

I have used some of my Tobacco profits to buy some precious.

I've bought a little Centamin and Shanta Gold.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Shanta Gold

Whya nota, although yesa, maya hava further to a falla! 

[Mr X]

2 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

According to the lead story on the BBC this morning, the proles are busy making banners about some fellas kicking a ball about.  Seems the PM and parliament also have it high on their agenda.  Why do I feel like my attention is intentionally being diverted from something that is actually important 🤔

I'll keep watching, I'm sure the piece on inflation, CBDCs, creeping socialism, and the impending implosion of the economy will be on next.......

Nailed. This is sheeple distraction

So, what's coming?

1. Another lockdown?

2. Fascist Vax Passports

[Noallegiance]

They're a hated sector again!

Tobacco stocks drop on report Biden is planning to limit cigarette nicotine (cnbc.com)

[Lightscribe]

https://www.newsweek.com/dogecoin-gets-support-newegg-snickers-milky-way-doge-day-1584885?amp=1

And if you needed any more proof of peak cycle clown world...

A digital meme coin with a dog on with no white paper or technical roadmap becomes official currency.

Due to the 130 billon circulating supply if it continues to increase in value, you can see why economies like Turkey want crypto banned. Maybe it will be allowed to continue to be the ‘straw’ that breaks the camels back for regulation.

You could argue is it any more silly than a plastic promise note with the queens head on I suppose. 

[NogintheNog]

Was watching the BBC last night on Greta Thunberg;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p099f5jp/greta-thunberg-a-year-to-change-the-world-series-1-episode-2

At 36:45 Dr Ajay Gambhir from Imperial college London stated that mankind has discovered up to 15 times more fossil fuels than we can burn to stay within our climate goals on Carbon dioxide release into the environment.

I think it's sad but true that developing nations with large populations are going to likely pay lip service to these goals, something along the lines of "You've burnt your quota, now it's our turn!"

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

Was watching the BBC last night on Greta Thunberg;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p099f5jp/greta-thunberg-a-year-to-change-the-world-series-1-episode-2

At 36:45 Dr Ajay Gambhir from Imperial college London stated that mankind has discovered up to 15 times more fossil fuels than we can burn to stay within our climate goals on Carbon dioxide release into the environment.

I think it's sad but true that developing nations with large populations are going to likely pay lip service to these goals, something along the lines of "You've burnt your quota, now it's our turn!"

Just checked, the entire UK windmill fleet are producing less than 1% of our power today.Drax biomass is doing nearly 8%,gas 56%.Still the lads running the windmills can go and have a fag break at least,or two fags if they reduce the nicotine in them 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

In theory yes. But there lies the point, will it *actually* be completely transparent or will they use a separate blockchain? 

Marketed as socialism but in reality would it really just be Neo-feudalism. History of human nature has proven that there has always been one set of rules for those at the top and another for the masses.

As others have said on here, would all this bring about a barter economy? Maybe, unless people wouldn’t want to risk stepping outside of the lines. China could be the template as they already control nearly 20% of the world’s population.

The question remains however, could the westernised world transition to a similar format and live under similar government control? There would have to be major shift in westernised behaviour and people would have to be reliant on government for everything, UBI, feed family etc. What could cause that? Hard times, global depression, war, food shortages etc.

Maybe that’s what’s already been gradually happening over the years. How many grew their own food and made everything from scratch 70 years ago until now. Self sufficiency becoming less and less as time goes on.

Lightscribe, right or wrong, I have slowly built my own 'base case' (Lynn Alden phrase), over the last 10 years and although my base-case of course changes I still find it useful for orienting myself for future investment trends/decision making, or to help interpret current events. Anyway, In terms of what you say above, my take is that after we all get issued our (covid?) digital id's, I would then next expect all internet access to be controlled via personal logins (the 'panic justification' will be China/Russia security concerns). So, in a flash, anonymity will be cancelled! Given blockchains (public or private) are immutable I certainly wouldn't want to attempt to commit company tax fraud using one.                                                                           And before anyone should respond by going full Gretta T. on me, ie- '...how dare you!!'. Please remember I am merely reading aloud from my personal 'crystal ball', so please (if so inclined) attack the ball and not the man. That's to say I neither say these things are good or bad, just that I expect them to happen. I say this because this thread is for helping decide investment choices, not to impune the character of our Lizard Overlords!?!              

[Loki]

25 minutes ago, JMD said:

the 'panic justification' will be China/Russia security concerns

Ties in with the cyber polygon "prediction" of a big event. Like event 201 predicted a "pandemic"

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

This is not good news.

The ability for unproductive bloated government to increase the amount of wealth it can steal from the private sector is not to be celebrated, IMO.

I bet governments don't Blockchain themselves so we cans we what they're doing.

Small government leaving us the fuck alone is what I'm after.

Just for clarification. I'm all for small government, I am a libertarian. I wasn't passing judgement and was certainly not celebrating. However this thread is about what we expect to happen over the next 10 years or so, and mainly in terms of the effects on our wealth and strategies for keeping hold of it. 

[Loki]

With the knowledge from this thread i was mostly stoic about what the next decade holds but now i worry if it will be enough.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

Was watching the BBC last night on Greta Thunberg;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p099f5jp/greta-thunberg-a-year-to-change-the-world-series-1-episode-2

At 36:45 Dr Ajay Gambhir from Imperial college London stated that mankind has discovered up to 15 times more fossil fuels than we can burn to stay within our climate goals on Carbon dioxide release into the environment.

I think it's sad but true that developing nations with large populations are going to likely pay lip service to these goals, something along the lines of "You've burnt your quota, now it's our turn!"

I also saw it. I'm not sure how to interpret the '15x' and 'mankind' bit (I expect Dr Ajay would have trouble explaining also!). But as I understand it each nation has its own allocated carbon budget which it must not exceed before 2030, else global extinction, etc, etc!! But does anyone know how economically 'limiting' the UK carbon budget actually is? After all, I thought the long running criticism, by the greens, was that the targets from the Paris climate accord were pretty generous and/or meaningless. 

[Chewing Grass]

This interested me whilst observing everything in the red today.

Meanwhile, economic data showed that Britain's unemployment rate fell for a second month in a row to 4.9% while employment levels declined less than forecast. However, the jobs report also showed that the number of employees on company payrolls fell by 56,000 between February and March, the economic inactivity rate increased and the employment rate continued to fall.

So unemployment falls but the number of employees falls along with employment rate and economic inactivity increasing.

Seems a load of people have statistically 'disappeared'.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

Was watching the BBC last night on Greta Thunberg;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p099f5jp/greta-thunberg-a-year-to-change-the-world-series-1-episode-2

At 36:45 Dr Ajay Gambhir from Imperial college London stated that mankind has discovered up to 15 times more fossil fuels than we can burn to stay within our climate goals on Carbon dioxide release into the environment.

I think it's sad but true that developing nations with large populations are going to likely pay lip service to these goals, something along the lines of "You've burnt your quota, now it's our turn!"

I forgot to mention the best bit for me in that TV program, was when they found what must be the only existing woke  miners in Poland, who then all clamoured for selfies with their hero Gretta... The unbiased BBC at its best!!

[Inigo]

18 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Oi.

Want your boiler fixed? Pay me in tobacco if you want a good price.

Tobacco would become a currency itself in that scenario. Why bother with money? cut out the middle man, go straight to the product/services. Rubbish fiat.

A friend spent some time in Bosnia just after the war.  He said that you could buy just about anything with 200 Marlboro.

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, Inigo said:

A friend spent some time in Bosnia just after the war.  He said that you could buy just about anything with 200 Marlboro.

I did think in feb 20 of buying 400 cigs and sticking them in the roof.  I read somewhere cigs never degrade if in the wrapper, and they are barterful in the extreme.