Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

47 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

Ultimately, it's not what you make, it's where you put it.  Accumulations can dissapear at a keystroke, even now.

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interesting the lens you choose to read geo-politics through.  US sanctions on Russia because of say Crimea or Ukraine or Putin's speech at the WEF and his little chat with Merkel?  Probably a bit of everything.  The challenge is to avoid the crossfire.  There are some far better markets out there but suppose our lot pull the plug on us, for our own good of course!

The WEF's build back better just sounds like an updated version of Pol Pot's Year Zero.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I leave these links here for you. Note the timeframe in the first link. Make of them what you will.

Vaccine passport roadmap:

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2019-2022_roadmap_en.pdf

ID2020:

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/6355/pdf/

Digital ID and included partners:

https://www.weforum.org/press/2018/01/digital-identity-why-it-matters-and-why-it-s-important-we-get-it-right/

WEF:

https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021/sessions/scaling-up-digital-identity-systems

 

Ta, but I'm in.  Next step is to move on to countermeasures.  See ya in the other threads or PM or Stealth?  I don't want to burden this thread, despite the implications for it.  It's like A Russian doll - dolls within dolls.  Today is one doll, the BK, etc is the next larger doll, this stuff is the next larger one, and so forth.

[M S E Refugee]

New Zealand wants to ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2004 as part of plan to make nation ‘smoke free’ by 2025 https://www.rt.com/news/521201-new-zealand-cigarettes-smoking-ban/

Hope this doesn't catch on, I have a fair bit invested in Tobacco.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The WEF's build back better just sounds like an updated version of Pol Pot's Year Zero.

Very good point mate

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The WEF's build back better just sounds like an updated version of Pol Pot's Year Zero.

History rhymes, usually with the worst stuff, after all, that's what humankind is best at.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

New Zealand wants to ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2004 as part of plan to make nation ‘smoke free’ by 2025 https://www.rt.com/news/521201-new-zealand-cigarettes-smoking-ban/

Hope this doesn't catch on, I have a fair bit invested in Tobacco.

It really is open season now!  I've been banging on about regulation since dot.  Better all catch up with Napier if you haven't yet.  Even I need a refresher.  Try not to be like me, rabbit in the headlights!

[feed]

16 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

New Zealand wants to ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2004 as part of plan to make nation ‘smoke free’ by 2025 https://www.rt.com/news/521201-new-zealand-cigarettes-smoking-ban/

Hope this doesn't catch on, I have a fair bit invested in Tobacco.

Smoke free. 

Evidence indicates that the amount of tobacco products being smuggled into New Zealand has increased substantially in recent years and organised criminal groups are involved in large-scale smuggling

Call me cynical but what products are smoke free and less liable for smuggling.     

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, feed said:

Smoke free. 

Evidence indicates that the amount of tobacco products being smuggled into New Zealand has increased substantially in recent years and organised criminal groups are involved in large-scale smuggling

Call me cynical but what products are smoke free and less liable for smuggling.     

Potatoes?

[feed]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Potatoes?

If you like, or alternatively vaping. 

Traditional tobacco products in developing markets
Vaping and cannabis vaping in developed markets, with state prohibition on “smoke” products as market protectionism.

Imagine the revenue increase on vape products in the UK, if the black market on smuggled cigarettes from Pakistan disappeared tomorrow. 

Feels like NZ (low pop) is going to be a test country.     
 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

Do you not think it'll fall in price if/when there are new sanctions put on Russia.

Applies to all Rusky stocks.

[sancho panza]

 @Cattle Prod Pictures  back up what you're saying/have been predicting for some months,slow decline of US shale(worse to come as wells drilled early 2020 come offline,inventories back within historical norms....

[DurhamBorn]

54 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

New Zealand wants to ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2004 as part of plan to make nation ‘smoke free’ by 2025 https://www.rt.com/news/521201-new-zealand-cigarettes-smoking-ban/

Hope this doesn't catch on, I have a fair bit invested in Tobacco.

Be able to make a fortune smuggling.One of my best mates had a lovely business importing cheap doors from Spain stuffed with fags.Lovely down his lock up in winter burning all the doors  .New Zealand looks like woke hell already.

[sancho panza]

Jsut reading teh April 1st report

Consumption forecasts to lead production hgiher.Be interested to know  @Cattle Prod if you're seeing their US shale calls correctly and whether Saudi has the capacity to keep the blue line close to the brown line?

It wouldn't take much for this to end up one hell of a bull.

Decl: long oilies

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

• EIA estimates that the world consumed 96.0 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels in March, an increase of 4.7 million b/d from March 2020. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is up by 5.5 million b/d from 2020. We forecast that consumption will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d. We revised growth in global liquid fuels consumption in 2021 higher from last STEO. The higher forecast is primarily a result of higher global GDP growth forecasts from Oxford Economics, which increased 0.4 percentage points from the March STEO to 6.2% for 2021.

• According to EIA’s most recent data, U.S. domestic crude oil production averaged 11.1 million b/d in January 2021. We estimate that U.S. domestic crude oil production declined by 0.8 million b/d in February, mostly because of cold temperatures that affected much of the country, particularly Texas. We forecast crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in the second quarter of 2021 and increase to almost 11.4 million b/d by the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million b/d in 2022. The forecast of rising U.S. crude oil production is the result of our expectation that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will remain above $55/b through the forecast period.

[M S E Refugee]

18 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Do you not think it'll fall in price if/when there are new sanctions put on Russia.

Applies to all Rusky stocks.

I have only invested in Lukoil so far and I am sure the Russians can find a market to sell their Oil.

Western Countries are putting sanctions on themselves by closing down their economies.

[sancho panza]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Be able to make a fortune smuggling.One of my best mates had a lovely business importing cheap doors from Spain stuffed with fags.Lovely down his lock up in winter burning all the doors  .New Zealand looks like woke hell already.

It's funny how all these Marxist types hate discrimination unless it's the kind they agree with.It's going to be ridiculous in NZ watching 20 year olds hanging corner shops asking the old biddies to buy them fags.

Word from South Africa is that some heavily connected ANC politicians have been involved with tobacco smuggling during their recent covid inspried tobacco ban.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Do you not think it'll fall in price if/when there are new sanctions put on Russia.

Applies to all Rusky stocks.

The US did it to China recently.  My broker sent a list of shares Americans could no longer deal in.  I must go back and see what impact that had.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/still-own-blacklisted-chinese-stocks-why-investors-may-be-in-limbo-for-a-while-51612015200

https://www.barrons.com/articles/delisting-chinese-companies-could-be-bad-for-investors-but-its-the-right-thing-to-do-51607728480

[Talking Monkey]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Looks like @201p is already on the case and deserves more traction/support:

I like the link in his opening post that the Great Reset might already have happened!  Makes you do a 180 and exercise some mental agility!

The thread deserves more attention and a far larger discussion than just about Bitcoin.  It all works for me and my "burning building" metaphor. 

Maybe our BK is a distraction in the bigger picture or is a key part (milestone) of the bigger picture.  Again, context is everything as prepping for the BK might look a bit different.

We are in danger of thinking walking with a red flag in front of this threatening new horseless carriage will be sufficient.

Defo food for thought on the BK being a distraction if not a key milestone. If we here see the inevitability of a BK, that miniscule ultra elite will too and have plans on how to fully exploit it.

[nirvana]

hat tip to @JREWINGfor flagging up Centamin....chugging along nicely, any news on the 150p takeover?

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It's funny how all these Marxist types hate discrimination unless it's the kind they agree with.It's going to be ridiculous in NZ watching 20 year olds hanging corner shops asking the old biddies to buy them fags.

Word from South Africa is that some heavily connected ANC politicians have been involved with tobacco smuggling during their recent covid inspried tobacco ban.

Every time i go abroad (hardly ever since i stopped going to Amsterdam) i get stopped and searched at customs."known associate" marked on my file  .None of my mates ever got done though,too sharp. 

[planit]

Quote

We forecast that consumption will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d. 

 

Thanks for those posts Sancho, I was wanting a prediction of oil consumption over the nearer term

I am wondering where the extra oil will come from as US production will probably stay 2mbpd below 2019 but demand within 18 months needs to be 1.5mbpd higher than 2019.

This means there is a 3.5mbpd increase needed from somewhere but I have seen no mention of a country that can meet this without oil at $120 per barrel making investment in shale start again (and even then it's a stretch). 

This article suggests the US is already producing as much as they can to try to make their finances look better for returning value to depressed investors. The investors are not even willing to reinvest their profits.

US oil drillers ‘dying on the vine’ as PE flight prompts funding drought

Quote

  Just 11 funds closed last year and only $4.5bn was raised as oil prices crashed, according to Preqin. Production plunged and remains around 11m b/d now.

“What’s different this time is there’s very little new private equity going into forming new private companies, because they don’t have capital to deploy,” said Kimmeridge’s Dell. “They are not confident they can raise more capital.”

Some private oil operators are spending an unexpected bounty from higher oil prices into more drilling, hoping extra output will lift valuations and attract buyers — a “last gasp” effort to secure a profitable exit, said Van Loh

Shale investment needs confidence of consistent high oil prices but I can't see this environment coming along soon. Oil prices will have to get so high the investment becomes a no-brainer.
 

[Hancock]

20 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have only invested in Lukoil so far and I am sure the Russians can find a market to sell their Oil.

Western Countries are putting sanctions on themselves by closing down their economies.

I agree with that, just if sanctions are put on the Russians if history repeats what happened a few years ago then their currency and company prices will take a considerable hit.

[Calcutta]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Every time i go abroad (hardly ever since i stopped going to Amsterdam) i get stopped and searched at customs."known associate" marked on my file  .None of my mates ever got done though,too sharp. 

I've never been charged, never even been arrested. But for some bloody reason I've been dragged out of every fucking airport I've ever been in and stripped, made to squat, explosive swabbed, it's a nightmare. 

Tel Aviv was the worst, the lad who searched me was sound but when we got back out to the check in desks these bitch girls had torn my bag to shreds and were individually x-raying every item in there, my shit was spread all over the fucking floor. 

[Hancock]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Every time i go abroad (hardly ever since i stopped going to Amsterdam) i get stopped and searched at customs."known associate" marked on my file  .None of my mates ever got done though,too sharp. 

Those border guards at Schiphol like a good grope of your bits more than any other i've come across, dirty cunts!

Good thing is since Brexit i've been told that the Dutch are no longer hiring Brit contractors so i'll hopefully never have to bite the bullet and visit that 2nd Division Germany esq country again. 

[sancho panza]

18 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm tempted to say gold is good for a run here, but I won't . Actually I've noticed a really good sentiment indicator in myself. When something I'm invested leveraged in has completed a long consolidation, I'm apathetic about it, exhausted of it, all sentiment washed out, and had to force myself to hold on. I wish I could be as Zen as DB, Kibuc and others here, but I'm just not made that way.

So gold finally is up decently today, whatever. Wake me up at new ATHs . 

Oil is irritating me too, which could be a good sign. China upping it's buying from Iran has upset the physical market a bit, so my supply calcs are be pushed out a few weeks. There may be another washout, f u oil  but market likes inventory drawdowns. Let's see what next week's inventory says.

I'm looking to redeploy some previous profits taken into the goldies here.But that was pre yesterday.It'll jsut be options exposure but will also allow some leverage as I think the certain goldies have oversold the market.Because we're using options then some companies are off the table due to volatility being priced in eg EGO.

Howver,I'm liking the look of barrick,YamanaB2G,KGC.

I finsihed off the coma scores for the sector on the back of your prompt.Some eye wateringly solid balance sheets and FCF in this sector.Nowehere near as good value as when DB started steering the one eyed basement dwellers like myself towards it in the heady days of 2018 when the commercials went net long in August

dyodd natch

Company	Share price	Date	Chart	Inc	BS	CF	Sector	SCS
Agnico	USD 60.61	23/02/21	1	2	4	2	4	13
Alamos	USD 7.55	03/03/21	3	3	5	3	4	18
Anglogold	USD 20.89	23/02/21	3	4	3	4	4	18
B2Gold	USD 4.55	03/03/21	2	5	5	5	4	21
Barrick	USD 18.67	01/03/21	3	3	4	4	4	18
Buenaventura	USD 10.65	16/04/21	4	1	4	2	4	15
Centamin	GBP 1.13	16/04/21	3	4	5	5	4	21
Centerra	CAD11.88	03/03/21	2	5	5	5	4	21
Eldorado	USD 11.01	03/03/21	3	3	5	5	4	20
FNV	USD 136.52	16/03/21	1	2	5	2	4	14
Freeport	USD 37.55	23/02/21	1	2	2	2	4	11
Fresnillo	GBP 9.42	03/03/21	3	3	4	3	4	17
Gold fields	USD 8.69	23/02/21	2	4	3	3	4	16
Gold resource	USD 2.69	01/03/21	4	1	5	3	4	17
Harmony	USD 4.05	23/02/21	4	1	3	2	4	14
Hochschild	GBP 2.13	01/03/21	4	2	3	4	4	17
IAM gold	USD 3.02	01/03/21	3	2	4	2	4	15
Kinross	USD 6.73	23/02/21	3	5	4	5	4	21
Kirkland	USD 33.24	01/03/21	2	3	5	3	4	17
New gold	USD 1.65	01/03/21	4	1	2	1	4	12
Newcrest	USD 20.04	23/02/21	3	3	4	3	4	17
Newmont	USD 54.52	01/03/21	1	3	4	4	4	16
Oceana	CAD 1.78	01/03/21	4	1	4	1	4	14
Osisko Gold Royalty	USD 9.80	01/03/21	3	2	4	1	4	14
Pan African	GBP 00.184	23/02/21	2	5	3	3	4	17
Pan American	USD 32.18	01/03/21	1	3	5	3	4	16
Petropavlosk	GBP0.2596	16/03/21	3	2	3	1	4	13
Polymetal	GBP 14.57	05/03/21	2	4	3	3	4	16
Royal Gold	USD 103.29	01/03/21	1	2	5	2	4	14
Sandstorm	USD 6.07	01/03/21	3	2	5	3	4	17
Sibanye	USD 18.91	01/03/21	1	2	3	4	4	14
SSR	USD 13.87	01/03/21	3	3	4	3	4	17
Wesdome	CAD 9.85	16/03/21	2	2	5	1	4	14
Wheaton	USD 42.03	16/03/21	1	2	5	5	4	17
Yamana	USD 4.015	01/03/21	4	3	3	4	4	18