Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

WOW...is that based on the amount of dollars that the FED will print?

those of you looking to pay off your mortgage early, watch out for the bitch*, I mean wife, I paid mine off early and then I got royally fooked.....it was a bloody nice house too 

*your mrs might not be too bad but they all talk shite and scheme over social media and a few glasses bottles of wine so if she has a few bitches for mates you could be in big trouble that way...

Luckily my partner has pretty much zero interest in materialism. As long as she can have my card and spend in Primark she’s happy.

But just in case... have assets that they can’t see the point of or have no interest in, chunks of metal, cars, watches, digital sky coins and yes rare Lego! 

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

But just in case... have assets that they can’t see the point of or have no interest in, chunks of metal, cars, watches, digital sky coins and yes rare Lego! 

she'l take the lot bro.......I fucked it up big time by sticking it all in a flash house (and some flash cars) rather than listening to myself about buttcoin 10 years ago....anyway I'm on it now with daughter no 1, getting prepped to kill the shitcoin market 

[nirvana]

13 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

most certainly not Tether USDT as that will go bust

how can it go bust? it's linked to USD.......do you use kucoin?

@TinglesI see you lurking  you're a smart cookie, what exchanges are you using? what's your thoughts on exchange vs decentralized?

[Lightscribe]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Lightscribe. Lots for me to think about.                                                                                                                   As regards the video, the real scary part for me is the way in which NBC chooses to report the whole China social credit story. The report seems so detached and ambivalent, even throwing in a 10-20 year timeline at the end of the video to prevent their viewers from worrying too much(?). I notice they also kept using the term of 'discrediting' citizens to keep them in line, I wonder if that is a direct translation from the Chinese? Anyway if/when we do get our own similar system here in the West, appears very much like we will be getting our own tech driven/updated form of puritanism... hmm, we've certainly been there before, but there's that history repeating/cycle again!

Just thought I’d reiterate something. When I say about keeping anything on an exchange I mean a decentralised exchange (like Binance has one). You will not have a hope in hell of withdrawing or placing low orders to buy crypto in the result of a crash.

Wallets like Trust wallet, connect to the defi exchange and you can set up orders but the crypto stays on the wallet on your phone. Once the wallet is reconnected and a buy/sell has been carried out, it will then exchange the crypto. As I said the only thing I’d have to transfer to the exchange for is to cash out (who needs fiat going forward anyway )  

If I miss the BK then so be it, so long as I have converted some to GBP to catch those low buy orders in the crash is the most important part for me.

[Lightscribe]

5 minutes ago, nirvana said:

how can it go bust? it's linked to USD.......do you use kucoin?

@TinglesI see you lurking  you're a smart cookie, what exchanges are you using? what's your thoughts on exchange vs decentralized?

USDT is certainly not USD. It’s Tether, a stable coin crypto, 1:1 with the USD and they are certainly not the Fed.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/02/23/tether-is-fined-by-regulators-in-new-york

[nirvana]

i've started a shitcoin rampers thread in stealth if anyone wants to join in 

19 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

1:1 with the USD

exactly, it's only bust if US dollars ie this $ ceases to exist but it's the still the worlds reserve currency last time I checked

edit: ahh i'm reading your link cheers....so it's a con like all other 'monetary systems'? quelle surprise 

and that's an interesting comment 

(By contrast, on Coinbase, a smaller but more transparent exchange that is soon to list on the stockmarket, they are mostly paid for with dollars, euros and sterling.)

Disclaimer: I bought coinbase on friday so you all need to get onboard before it rockets back up to 400 bucks 

[Tingles]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

how can it go bust? it's linked to USD.......do you use kucoin?

@TinglesI see you lurking  you're a smart cookie, what exchanges are you using? what's your thoughts on exchange vs decentralized?

@nirvanaI agree with Lightscribe who is on point with his comments.  As mentioned on a few threads, It is highly important to have strategies to guarantee secure, reliable exchange trade executions during periods of extreme volatility both in terms of selling and buying back in.  Currently using Binance, KuCoin and Uniswap.  Decentralized exchanges preferable both in terms of functionality and philosophy.

Having clear objectives (mine is accumulation) for bull, bear and crash is key.  Also, having structured target buy and sell limits (not necessarily on exchange) is essential as greed control management and timing are just as important as exchange access during high volatility.

Also, generally since the Tether FUD I have been using USDC more in place of Tether when keeping powder dry.  I wouldn't be surprised if Circle tech is deployed as the USCBDC.

Recently I have been very thoughtful about the stages between selling and buying back in.  Particularly regarding gold versus fiat currency and/or stablecoins.

[nirvana]

25 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Binance, KuCoin and Uniswap

thanks for the write up.....do you think coinbase is pants then?

and you're a fan of these? https://www.circle.com/en/

I take it you're a tech guy?

cheers

[Tingles]

36 minutes ago, nirvana said:

thanks for the write up.....do you think coinbase is pants then?

and you're a fan of these? https://www.circle.com/en/

@nirvana  Coinbase Pro and Kraken are fine for GBP pairs but the others mentioned provide a greater choice of cryptos, lower fees and some decentralized exchange facilities. 

Not necessarily a fan, but yes USDC (Circle) is potentially a safer stablecoin option for dry powder than Tether/USDT.  I say this in relative terms as we understand that all of this is just a game of risk management

[Siggy]

3 hours ago, nirvana said:

 

those of you looking to pay off your mortgage early, watch out for the bitch*, I mean wife, I paid mine off early and then I got royally fooked.....it was a bloody nice house too 

*your mrs might not be too bad but they all talk shite and scheme over social media and a few glasses bottles of wine so if she has a few bitches for mates you could be in big trouble that way...

This is a really important point. It's the reason why I'm not trying to pay off the mortgage early on the 'marital' home. It's not a huge amount now (bdw all she knows is the monthly amount) though and as soon as youngest is 16 I will try to pay it off quick.

It's even more important if you think everything is cool and it doesn't apply to your marital situation! Seen so many decent blokes done over who didn't see it coming at all. 

[M S E Refugee]

I went into mainly cash a few weeks ago but I have been redeploying the money back into Mining Shares as I suffer from terrible FOMO, I am putting my faith in the extraordinary David Hunter as he has made some amazing calls recently.

 

[dnb24]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

my target price is $1.4723

Is that approximately?????!!

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Is that approximately?????!!

Ha thats the number i see from liquidity flows,sentiment etc.I dont usually do sterling work,but decided to for interest.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ha thats the number i see from liquidity flows,sentiment etc.I dont usually do sterling work,but decided to for interest.

Thanks for that mate

Imagine the result of dogecoin brute-forced through your models 

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Which miners do you prefer may I ask?

I've been averaging into Fres and Hoc for my silver, and Poly and Cey for my gold allocation. The more they drop, I buy, then on the rise, sell out my highest tranches. Got pretty good averages now.

But I got reading about some political issues in Peru, some Lefty wants to nationalise the mines, I cannot see this happening, but I could see higher taxation coming. Hoc would suffer, as has the share price recently. I think it dropped to 1.82 on ex div day, which did concern me. Anyway, I completely sold out on Friday PM; took a little loss (£600). We'll see tomorrow if I made the right call, if it opens and goes over 2, I hold my hands up, I was wrong. If it plummets to the low 1.9's or lower, I made the right call. There was some heavy selling Friday afternoon/after hours as it climbed after the NonFarmPay numbers were released. Shame I have held and traded Hoc for the past few months. But local politics and overseas companies tend to make me nervous. It might be all hogwash, but I've sold out on rumour, I'll see what the Asian markets open up at Gold and Silver tonight, that will give me a good idea on direction of travel.

I have been buying Jaguar, Sylvania Platinum, Anglo Asian Mining, Polymetal International, Centamin, Central Asian Metals, Shanta Gold and PSLV.

I may buy some Oroco Resource next week.

[Chewing Grass]

Was idly curious about Historical Tax Thresholds as being worker scum the 40% Threshold of Percieved Wealthiness pisses me off when most of the labour is pent on somewhere to live and the means to get to and from work leaving 40% for bills, food and some very modest spends.

The threshold hasn't in reality budged since 2009.

Oh, and don't stick 1990's threshold of £20700 in the B of E Inflation Calculator either.

Doh...

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/rates-of-income-statistics

[AWW]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Was idly curious about Historical Tax Thresholds as being worker scum the 40% Threshold of Percieved Wealthiness pisses me off when most of the labour is pent on somewhere to live and the means to get to and from work leaving 40% for bills, food and some very modest spends.

It's a joke. IR35 reform has pushed me into the 45% "oligarchs" bracket, which in reality is somewhere close to 70% after paying both employers and employees NI as I have to. But in London, with a family to support and Mrs AWW looking after the kids rather than outsourcing it, I don't feel very rich.

[AWW]

The inflation figures are massaged, but not to that extent. Here's the real reason that fags are so expensive now:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tobacco-bulletin/tobacco-duty-rates

[Animal Spirits]

Reverse repo operations have increased in volume recently; lots of deposits.

T bills look like they would continue below zero without intervention. Data is set monthly, so smoothed average:

4 week bill went 0 on 21st April and was 0.01 7th May.

[Noallegiance]

This confused me. Is he disagreeing with the inflation thesis?

https://youtu.be/GcrD1cBlMVA

 

[Animal Spirits]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

This confused me. Is he disagreeing with the inflation thesis?

https://youtu.be/GcrD1cBlMVA

 

David Rosenberg is suggesting continued disinflation/deflation.

[23rdian]

2 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

David Rosenberg is suggesting continued disinflation/deflation.

Watched this yesterday.

 

[lid]

With regards playing the benefits game heard a couple of crackers before ..

Guy who gets the bus to the benefits office in his pyjamas and housecoat.

And another guy who pissed on his keks and put them in the airing cupboard. Then when dry pissed on them again and dried them out again 🤢 Then put them on and butttoned his shirt up wrong and ruffled his hair up like Ken Dodd to go to his appointment.

You can't write this shit

[Lightscribe]

51 minutes ago, lid said:

With regards playing the benefits game heard a couple of crackers before ..

Guy who gets the bus to the benefits office in his pyjamas and housecoat.

And another guy who pissed on his keks and put them in the airing cupboard. Then when dry pissed on them again and dried them out again 🤢 Then put them on and butttoned his shirt up wrong and ruffled his hair up like Ken Dodd to go to his appointment.

You can't write this shit

I thought it sounded like it was going to be the start of an old school joke then. 

I’ll bust one out anyway... 

Three parrots in a pet shop for sale.

They were priced at £170, £150 and £10.

A woman asks the shopkeeper "Why is that parrot so cheap?"

The shopkeeper replies "Because it used to live in a brothel."

The woman finds this amusing so she buys the parrot. On returning home the parrot takes in its new surroundings and says "Fuck me, a new brothel!". The woman laughs.

A few hours later, her two daughters come home and the parrot pipes up once more "Fuck me, new girls!". The woman and her daughters both laugh.

Later that evening, the woman's husband comes in from work and once more the parrot squawks, this time saying "Fuck me Keith, long time no see!"

[JimmyTheBruce]

Sorry folks, I know its been mentioned recently but can't find it via search; did we establish whether it was still possible to get silver coins without VAT?  I used silver-to-go before, but that was a while ago, and their site now makes it clear that VAT is applicable.