Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, macca said:

What's happening to VODafone? 

Share price continues to tumble?

Good buy? or run and scream? 

VOD is creeping higher,today was ex divi day.

[Barnsey]

 

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57600757

 

UK deaths outnumber births for first time in 40 years

[DurhamBorn]

28 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57600757

 

UK deaths outnumber births for first time in 40 years

2 child benefit cap.

[23rdian]

22 hours ago, TheNickos said:

Just picked up some FRES and IMB. Fancied some silver/miners and tobacco is generally a winner dividend wise. 

Just bought a bit more POLY and VIV for the first time. Will get some more FRES with my July trading credit I think.

Still can't quite bring myself to invest/encourage the cancer stocks.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Saddle up Boys, we're ready for the home straight. 

80% down after this melt up he's saying. 

[Hardhat]

27 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Saddle up Boys, we're ready for the home straight. 

80% down after this melt up he's saying. 

I just want PMs to run!

Actually been selling out / taking profits from quite a few positions (anything over 100% up) lately to de-risk myself a bit.

Anecdotally though work (construction) is going mad at the moment. Everyone sorting out their premises anticipating return to work in offices.

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

2 child benefit cap.

I was trying to find a shorter time period chart. Failed.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/vitalstatisticspopulationandhealthreferencetables

• In 2019, there were 712,680 live births in the UK, a decrease of 2.5% from 731,213 in 2018 and the lowest number of live births since 2004.

2 child limit started in Apr 2017.

Ive done a post on the affect to Mrs Spy school (2021 - 2017 = 4 = age kids start reception).

Classes have dropped from ~30 -> ~25.

TCv1 came in 2003.

TCv2 the lucrative ones started in ~2007, after the news was filled up with single mums owing ~10k to HMRC.

 

Youve also go to allow a a lot of EUers fucking off home wit he furlough money and bennies.

 

 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Saddle up Boys, we're ready for the home straight. 

80% down after this melt up he's saying. 

Mmm, but when to cash out eh?...I have a workplace pension currently invested in stocks/bonds but have the option to move within the provider to cash type investments, but at the moment the return is pitiful....but safe in a BK.

[DurhamBorn]

What i would say with David is that he is looking at the US mostly and the bubbles there.He has zero interest or work on the UK.He would say rightly everything will be pulled down,but the scale is very much in question.Most relies on the debt markets and the derivative side and if there is systemic risk.

[Democorruptcy]

On 24/06/2021 at 14:39, planit said:

Not sure what you mean, there was about 2 months warning that there was a pandemic coming before stock markets got trashed. My whole point is being before the market.

See the risk before the market - position for the risk

Market moves in reaction to events or it's own perception to the risk - make new decision on current risks and market position.

 

We see this here all the time, there are two mentions at the moment where DOSBODS was ahead of the curve

1) oil prices up hugely, now the press is reporting oil might go to $100 but comments on here are talking about a correction.

2) inflation move April-June was seen on here before hand but now everyone is calling inflation to the moon 

 

It is impossible to get this right all the time (perhaps even less than 50%) but a profit is not likely if you position for inflation when the MSM is shouting we have a serious inflation problem.

Covid has driven the markets the last 15 months and it still has the potential to affect them.

 

Not to be underestimated re covid whether you think the thing is real or not. The faces who pull the strings of the puppets are doing very well out of it.

Billionaires see fortunes rise by 27% during the pandemic

'Wealth increase of 10 men during pandemic could buy vaccines for all'

[BurntBread]

The David Hunter interview with Mark Moss is very interesting, not so much for the first part, where he reiterates his targets for indices etc. that we have heard before, but because he elaborates a little on the collapse at the end of the 20's / start of the 30's.

Previously, he has just said he expects a system collapse and a "totalitarian response". This time he calls it out explicitly as communism, and that the ESG extremists are "useful idiots" for ushering it in. He is clear that there would be such a collapse anyway, without that kind of ideology, because we will be at the end of the super-cycle, but that for some reason "they" want to bring in global communism. He doesn't know why, and doesn't name any names, but rather shockingly, he attributes it to evil, rather than something more rational.

Maybe someone should invite him to dosbods and the Q thread (if he doesn't post here already)?

[JMD]

On 22/06/2021 at 16:29, sancho panza said:

This is a key point that people forget.The old 'gold is an inflation hedge' mantra gets trotted out so often it becomes a truth without anyone examining the basis of it.

Reality is that gold was an awful inflation hedge 1980 to 2003/4/5.Gold holders got burned in real terms.Hugely so.

Gold to me is a hedge against the central banks losing control and solvency risk.As you rightly point out,there are far better ways to hedge infaltion.

SP, interesting comment ref. gold/inflation. It reminds me of the following, it's an extract from this years' 'In Gold We Trust' report (just completed reading the report, and the passage reminded me of your post, ... he seems to agree with your points).

It's from an interview with FOFOA ("Friend of Friend of Another", not sure if you rate him? He has been mentioned several times on the thread before). He does have very interesting thoughts on (Free)gold, its future ‘market re-priced’ value of $55k!!, and its ultimate new role following the monetary reset. 

Excerpt: 

‘I need to explain a simple concept about gold, however, before I tell you what I see. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is right around USD 55,000 per coin, which is a number that I have long used for Freegold. Meanwhile, gold is down more than 15% from its high last August. So something I’m hearing a lot is that Bitcoin has done what gold was supposed to do; therefore Bitcoin is the new gold, or something along those lines. I see this flawed premise everywhere: “Look at gold, it’s down, it’s not doing what it’s supposed to do, which is rise against all this printing and monetary inflation like commodities and other inflation hedges.” But if we look back at history, that’s not how gold works. And it’s not what Freegold predicts.

Historically, gold does its best work at transition points, not in day-to-day price movements. For example, when it was being used as part of the money supply, it didn’t track price inflation, but every 40–50 years or so it would have to be repriced, or it would jump in price due to some sort of transition or crisis (e.g., 1934 and the 1970s). It has never really worked well as an inflation hedge. Everyone assumes it should, but I think that’s a flawed premise, at least in the current system. It’s more of a transition hedge, or a singularity hedge.

This is what I see coming on the other side of the 2nd Singularity. I think we’re going to have a collapse, a reset, and a grand liquidation that will lead to a period of rebuilding, which will last perhaps decades. But it won’t be the “Great Reset” agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF). The collapse is going to include the collapse of such oversized, centralized thinking as the WEF, and the reset is going to usher in a more localized, resilient way of thinking. As Another put it, the old ideas of building solid, enduring, long-term wealth will return.

The collapse will be a collapse of the US dollar system, the financial system, and the paper gold market, and the reset will include the repricing of physical gold. I don’t see the repricing as something that someone needs to enact, but more of a natural and obvious outcome of the collapse. The “grand liquidation” will effectively pass economic assets from the old guard to the new generation, at fire-sale prices that will make them profitable once again, and the rebuilding of a more real and more robust economy will commence. You might even call it a renaissance, or my preference, a new golden age.'

Link  to full interview...

My View of the Nixon Shock – Exclusive Interview with FOFOA | ingoldwetrust.report : ingoldwetrust.report

 

 

 

[JMD]

If we do get 'our' BK, i'd really like to get some exposure to the hydrogen battery manufactures. Does anyone have views (good or bad) on the following ones? Or perhaps alternatives? Asking because all/most of them have been mentioned on here before, but i missed out on buying any as previously i didn't have the funds.

These are all small players, and financials are not good, but i am viewing them as high risk... kinda like the junior gold miners. Plus i would only buy if they go down say 50%+ (i.e. after a BK event).

Power Cell Sweden, Ceres Power, AFC Energy, ITM Power, Ballard Power Systems, McPhy Energy SA, Plug Power.

[Loki]

29 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

The David Hunter interview with Mark Moss is very interesting, not so much for the first part, where he reiterates his targets for indices etc. that we have heard before, but because he elaborates a little on the collapse at the end of the 20's / start of the 30's.

Previously, he has just said he expects a system collapse and a "totalitarian response". This time he calls it out explicitly as communism, and that the ESG extremists are "useful idiots" for ushering it in. He is clear that there would be such a collapse anyway, without that kind of ideology, because we will be at the end of the super-cycle, but that for some reason "they" want to bring in global communism. He doesn't know why, and doesn't name any names, but rather shockingly, he attributes it to evil, rather than something more rational.

Maybe someone should invite him to dosbods and the Q thread (if he doesn't post here already)?

I've posted somewhere on here ages ago about 'money men' only seeing in numbers.  I thought it was interesting (I wanted to say great but that's not the right word) he eluded to some of the thoughts us more TFH plebs are having.  (I include myself firmly and totally in that group)

It just felt nice to have an expert come and say it at last. 

[leonardratso]

TFH?

[leonardratso]

ah tin foil hat

[King Penda]

On 14/06/2021 at 12:48, JMD said:

Important as this topic is... Whenever the subject of road stats/traffic policy come up - my mind frequently wanders to a Mad Max dystopian vision of the future... along with 'Barter-Town', where silver coins, cigarettes, unopened lego-sets and even pizza recipes(?) are traded!!

...but the question remains, who is Master Blaster? 

 

Just been a children’s party in burton on Trent this is how dad fills his time loads of these Lego sets and he has built his own Ironman outfit .

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Today, the US rig count declined, at ~$74 WTI. And not just the crappier stuff, but the Permian too. Some poor gimp has had to tell the CEOs that there are much fewer drilling targets when you actually need a return on your capital. Knowing a few Texan CEO types, I hope they didn't get shot!

I'm really hoping for a technical correction here in price, but fundamentals really are set up for another run into autumn. A ~10% correction here will guarantee it.

It's a long way from minus $35, or even plus $35, in a short time. But as ever, the cure for low prices is low prices. Have a good weekend.

A lot of sentiment is at play now as well where almost everyone thinks oil companies are dead money and only fools would invest in them.I wish those idiots at BP would hurry up and start buying back shares though while they still can cheap.What are they waiting for?,they can hedge some production now to ensure cash flow is locked in.Instead of telling the market 3 months ahead about buying a few % they should be at it now.I still think $200 oil is likely this cycle with $300 a maybe.

Its incredible really how auto makers are all going electric,yet there is nowhere near the infrastructure for it.I was looking at all the different wind farms in the UK as well and they all go up and down together with huge periods of nothing at all.Gas is going to be in massive demand without more nuclear.

Its going to be an incredible bull market that just runs and runs.

 

 

[Barnsey]

 

[jamtomorrow]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its incredible really how auto makers are all going electric,yet there is nowhere near the infrastructure for it.I was looking at all the different wind farms in the UK as well and they all go up and down together with huge periods of nothing at all.Gas is going to be in massive demand without more nuclear.

Generation and distribution infrastructure for overnight charging is already there, in the form of excess overnight capacity. *Almost* a no-brainer to take advantage of that - some structural changes to the generating market, some changes to the maintenance and duty-cycle assumptions for gas generation, more nuclear in the long term (perfect for steadier demand with smaller night/day cycles).

It's the last 100 yards where the problems are today. There simply aren't enough qualified chargepoint installers. 2 close friends recently got their first EVs, and have now been waiting months for a home chargepoint (one has already melted the plug on their granny cable).

Ordinarily, you'd expect Mr. Market to work his magic and drag a generation of school leavers into the game through price signals. But these are not ordinary times.

The situation with rapids is definitely improving in fits and starts, although it's patchy. There are now several rapids within 5 minutes of the sleepy Midlands village where I live. Morrisons have got one. You can even get a rapid charge on up at the driving range.

Still patchy nationally. Mid-Wales is a complete dead loss. But gaps are being filled all the time e.g. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news-environment/electric-highways-opens-uk’s-largest-ev-motorway-charging-station

350kW is incredible - that'll charge in excess of 1000mph for most EVs, which is getting *much* closer to ballpark of dinofuelling rates.

All this to say: to my mind the generation and distribution infrastructure is a non-issue (edit to add: although I do agree the existing infrastructure will have to generate more leccy overall, mostly from gas initially). And the local infrastructure looks like it's tracking the adoption curve, more or less. Except for this installer shortage, which is *definitely* "different".

[Hardhat]

16 hours ago, JMD said:

If we do get 'our' BK, i'd really like to get some exposure to the hydrogen battery manufactures. Does anyone have views (good or bad) on the following ones? Or perhaps alternatives? Asking because all/most of them have been mentioned on here before, but i missed out on buying any as previously i didn't have the funds.

These are all small players, and financials are not good, but i am viewing them as high risk... kinda like the junior gold miners. Plus i would only buy if they go down say 50%+ (i.e. after a BK event).

Power Cell Sweden, Ceres Power, AFC Energy, ITM Power, Ballard Power Systems, McPhy Energy SA, Plug Power.

I've held Ceres / CWR for almost 2 years and it's been a multi bagger for me. I recently sold 60% of my holding as it hasn't gone anywhere in 6 months and I want to "de risk" it a bit. I track the sector, CWR, AFC and ITM tend to go up and down together.

 

The difference with CWR is that it is not a "hydrogen energy" company so much as it has designed solid oxide fuel cells - for use in e.g. haulage vehicles. The company's revenue largely comes from licensing of their designs for these fuel cells rather than energy generation, so I basically see it as a "future of transport" play, although it tends to get lumped in with the "hydrogen" companies.

SP wise 1000p is pretty much the main support for CWR at the moment, it has tested that level a lot recently and doesn't ever dip far below it. Who knows when the next run up will be, or if it will come. I was sure this would go to 2000p earlier this year, but the hydrogen sector in general feels a bit unloved at the moment.

[MvR]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

All this to say: to my mind the generation and distribution infrastructure is a non-issue (edit to add: although I do agree the existing infrastructure will have to generate more leccy overall, mostly from gas initially). And the local infrastructure looks like it's tracking the adoption curve, more or less. Except for this installer shortage, which is *definitely* "different".

I wonder how cars parked on the road will charge?  Most residential streets without drives are chock full of parked cars. There would need to be a charging point for every space...

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Generation and distribution infrastructure for overnight charging is already there, in the form of excess overnight capacity. *Almost* a no-brainer to take advantage of that - some structural changes to the generating market, some changes to the maintenance and duty-cycle assumptions for gas generation, more nuclear in the long term (perfect for steadier demand with smaller night/day cycles).

It's the last 100 yards where the problems are today. There simply aren't enough qualified chargepoint installers. 2 close friends recently got their first EVs, and have now been waiting months for a home chargepoint (one has already melted the plug on their granny cable).

Ordinarily, you'd expect Mr. Market to work his magic and drag a generation of school leavers into the game through price signals. But these are not ordinary times.

The situation with rapids is definitely improving in fits and starts, although it's patchy. There are now several rapids within 5 minutes of the sleepy Midlands village where I live. Morrisons have got one. You can even get a rapid charge on up at the driving range.

Still patchy nationally. Mid-Wales is a complete dead loss. But gaps are being filled all the time e.g. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news-environment/electric-highways-opens-uk’s-largest-ev-motorway-charging-station

350kW is incredible - that'll charge in excess of 1000mph for most EVs, which is getting *much* closer to ballpark of dinofuelling rates.

All this to say: to my mind the generation and distribution infrastructure is a non-issue (edit to add: although I do agree the existing infrastructure will have to generate more leccy overall, mostly from gas initially). And the local infrastructure looks like it's tracking the adoption curve, more or less. Except for this installer shortage, which is *definitely* "different".

Iv been looking at all the windfarms in the UK,the main offshore,Hornsea,East Anglia,Beatrice,Racebank,Dudgeon and Walney and they have a more than 70% correlation on when they produce.For instance from the 12th May until  20th of May they were under 500mw as a group.Walney is the only one with a better profile of producing when others arent.Maybe why BP were interested in paying more for that areas leases.

Solar of course can produce during the day,but not at night,and most EVs will be charging at night,and for weeks on end without massive expansion of gas or nuclear there will be no energy.

One area that is certain to do well is power switching,where people can produce when cheap etc and a reason i still think hydrogen has a big future.

Fast charging is going to have to grow hugely,and that could be a real boon to supermarkets as they have the best land for doing it.Maybe Morrisons shareholders should turn these bids down after all.

[jamtomorrow]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Solar of course can produce during the day,but not at night,and most EVs will be charging at night,and for weeks on end without massive expansion of gas or nuclear there will be no energy.

Existing gas and nuclear will certainly need to generate more, but there's no need for much - if any - new *capacity* to service cars. Even if the entire UK car fleet magically switched to EV overnight, we'd need an extra 6GW of generation, most of that overnight - that's well within the existing day/night variation for UK grid.

Transports are a different matter, but still not 100% clear whether they'll go battery or hydrogen.