Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DoINeedOne]

12 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

@The Masked Tulip Posted this link on Saturday in the vaccine thread:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/RRr2aeDg50RZ/

Unfortunately human behaviour can be crazy even in advertising it shocks me how easy it can be to change or encourage a certain behaviour from the customer 

 

As for that video I suspect mostly it’s herd mentality people don’t like attention attracted to them in the wrong way so try to blend in with the rest

 

My mum came on a dog walk with me few weeks back after being vaccinated she had a mask on, I asked her why she had a mask on whilst outside walking 

 

She replied similar just so used to it now but took it off and popped in a few days ago without a mask so hopefully she’s started to take note 

 

 

 

[Transistor Man]

10 hours ago, JMD said:

Is this the Nuttal etf?  Any views on his top 10 holdings CP? Not asking for specific investment advise, rather just a summation of what that mix of stocks represents. They all appear to be Canadian small caps?                                                                                                                              https://www.ninepoint.com/funds/ninepoint-energy-fund/

I’ve followed him for a while, and that’s his thing. Canadian small/ mid caps.

[nirvana]

19 hours ago, nirvana said:

hot tip for you guys 

https://www.mosmanoilandgas.com/announcements/£15m-placing-completed-helium-hydrogen-and-hydrocarbon-exploration-ep-145-and-update

up 15% today! YOU snooze and you LOOZE!!! 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are going to get a classic head fake here.Inflation will move up to a new,higher base first,then it will stop increasing much for a window,a window that looks permanent,then it will enter a cycle long increase.The short end isnt pricing inflation its just being used to park liquidity.The Fed is fighting to keep it down as well to force money into investment instead as one policy aim.Key point is that when the 10 year is way below inflation government is getting more in tax than the debt is costing at some point and thats exactly what the Fed is trying to set in place.To remove or actually inject less liquidity the Fed needs the government to see receipts growing faster than spending so they stay solvent,at least in a Fiat system.

As people on the oilies il be holding all mine,the only one il sell is Shell,but not without another 15%+ on them

FYI, the Jeff Goldblum of economics called the swift recovery well before most, and is now saying we've peaked (for now). China clamping down on soaring commodities (look at copper), lumber still heading down, looks like we're entering the pull back phase where everything already seems to be priced in. I'll be buying the dip.

And on yields:

 

[Harley]

13 hours ago, wherebee said:

Who thinks we're getting close to a point for a sale of some oilies?  The shootup in recent weeks has been notable.

I'm thinking of maybe selling all my BP as they seen most woke and fucked at the board level.

edit: up 48% inc divvies.

No change in opinion from my last post.  Momentum has run ahead of average prices so one may give.  A lot at resistance too so could pop for one last run or fail.  Bought a Russki today that fell into my sights.  A bit iffy but still little out there atm.

 

[planit]

13 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

FYI, the Jeff Goldblum of economics called the swift recovery well before most, and is now saying we've peaked (for now). China clamping down on soaring commodities (look at copper), lumber still heading down, looks like we're entering the pull back phase where everything already seems to be priced in. I'll be buying the dip.

 

This could fit in with a worry on the Delta variant.

UK cases are now higher than a lot of other countries and growing exponentially.

US now has 10% of cases as Delta variant and if you extrapolate forwards they could be like the UK in a few weeks. I am not completely sure but I think the vaccine uptake is lower in the US than here so it might affect them more.

 

I just now see a new risk that if this variant starts popping up as a problem in multiple countries including US and China there could be a pull back in markets everywhere. The quarantine procedures between countries have slowed down the progression so the markets have underestimated the risk (and it hasn't completely stopped the Delta variant moving countries)

 

Regarding the selling of oil shares earlier up thread, they are the main stocks I want to hold through the entire cycle so I won't be selling permanently as I want them to quadruple. I will trade in and out of some of my holding to not get too bored.

I suppose the question is: 

Over the next 8 years what shares will you hold? 

If you believe in a long cycle then the movements will be longer and larger. If you are selling out after a year or two then you will need to move into something else or wait for a crash. Just have a plan that looks past your next trade.

 

Lumber drop shows that supply can now come back on line to address demand. This should happen to motor vehicles, chips etc resulting in inflation dropping back.

 Oil price seems to be pricing in return to normal now which must be risky, there is no supply shortage so could have peaked for a while. It might be next year now before flying is back to normal.

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

looks like we're entering the pull back phase where everything already seems to be priced in. I'll be buying the dip.

I'm seeing a possible wobble on BHP and co on the monthlies.  Maybe just follow through from the recent topping or more fundamental.  Fully allocated on most but have room to bite one more stock and hopefully others will come into view.  DYOR.  Do I sell thirds or hold?  The usual tough question.  

[JMD]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Unfortunately human behaviour can be crazy even in advertising it shocks me how easy it can be to change or encourage a certain behaviour from the customer 

Edward Bernays... 'the father of public relations' and advertising (and nephew of Sigmund Freud). However, back in the 1930's companies didn't have PR depts, they called them 'propaganda' depts. How's that for a gotcha moment! 

I agree with you that it is shockingly easy to manipulate people. But the salient point for me is how ill educated people are even after (because of?!) attending 12/15 years of state school/college.     

To be clear, i don't personally think bad-education or manipulative-advertising are conspiracies, i tend not to go in for conspiracies. Its more i think to do with top-heavy/convoluted institutional/corporate decay... yep, a reboot is needed to 'reset'(trigger word to some!) things, controversial maybe, but really that's another topic.    

But in terms of 'manipulation', my opening paragraph could be interpreted as promoting conspiracies. However, as they say, perception and context are everything. So for example, the following short video puts a different slant on Bernays techniques which were/still are so simple to understand, society just needs to be forewarned/educated i think.  

(actually quiet funny video for different reasons... warning, it was a different world back then - i.e. mention of 'ecstatic dancers' (racist!?), and where the simple mention of Proctor&Gamble gets a cheer from the audience!)     

 

 

[Harley]

Funny how most, even me to an extent, at the start of this looked at the masked asians and thought never us.  And now we can't live without them.  More of that to come, to an area of financial interest!  It's all there, in plain view.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks DB. I thought gold and gold miners were beginning to smell something, maybe it's this headfake.

A mixed bag atm.  I've been buying the good div payers despite no very clear technical picture but good enough and plenty of vol(atility).  Like *** (DYOR, not a rec, etc) gapping down 4.52% today having risen 14% last month.  I'm probably a bit early but these companies with their cash flows, divs, and balance sheets are hard to ignore.

[Harley]

Summer doldrums?  The elites still able to get away, etc with the PM ensuring access to their favourites (Cheltenham last year, Wimbledon thus, etc)?

[JMD]

28 minutes ago, planit said:

This could fit in with a worry on the Delta variant.

UK cases are now higher than a lot of other countries and growing exponentially.

US now has 10% of cases as Delta variant and if you extrapolate forwards they could be like the UK in a few weeks. I am not completely sure but I think the vaccine uptake is lower in the US than here so it might affect them more.

I just now see a new risk that if this variant starts popping up as a problem in multiple countries including US and China there could be a pull back in markets everywhere. The quarantine procedures between countries have slowed down the progression so the markets have underestimated the risk (and it hasn't completely stopped the Delta variant moving countries)

I think the various virus variants may become background noise...

The (elephant in the room) bat in the lab!! for me is if/when the US get hold of evidence that Covid was a manufactured virus, and who knows - maybe even if the virus was released on purpose!!

It seems to me this whole story is now beginning to be ramped by US govt and even the MSM. Last week i heard a radio program talking about the erstwhile virus conspiracy story as though it had now turned (mutated) from conspiracy into a real and deep suspicion of the origins of the virus and the Chinese government. GBNews (not msm) had a Chinese virologist dissident now living in the US, she was reinforcing the fact that the corona virus cannot be found anywhere in nature, only in the lab. In fact, the structure of the virus, its cleavage(?), are evidence of gene manipulation techniques. Therefore it was 'man made'. Where does this story go next i wonder?   

 

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

I think the various virus variants may become background noise...

The (elephant in the room) bat in the lab!! for me is if/when the US get hold of evidence that Covid was a manufactured virus, and who knows - maybe even if the virus was released on purpose!!

Pretty crappy virus to release, in that it doesn't kill anyone who wasn't on deaths door anyway.

[TNS]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Summer doldrums?  The elites still able to get away, etc with the PM ensuring access to their favourites (Cheltenham last year, Wimbledon thus, etc)?

Royal Ascot going ahead i see too!

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Can anyone explain to me why 10 year breakeven inflation rates have been dropping for the last month?!

Definition:

I guess it means that market participants currently expect inflation to have peaked, or is transitory? Strange, with the CPI numbers coming in the way they are, but markets are not rational I suppose. What could make them change their views...I suppose Powell's comments at FOMC.

 

Much along the lines of what @DurhamBorn was saying ref liquidity but with a picture.10 yr breakeven measures 10 yr contant maturity versus 10 yr TIPS(not insulting anyone ehre jsut establishing parameters.).Problem is that the bond market has become a poor measure of infaltion expectations,not becuase it can't but because it's being used for parking money.

See from last year 10 yr TIPS has been negative.......so plenty inflation expectations(the deeper it goes negative,the higher they expect infaltion going out ten yrs) but due to Fed interventions most likely,10 year constatn maturity not reflecting that.In a weird way the 10 yr break even is covering a stroy that 10 year tips is expecting inflation 10 yr constnat isn't.go figure but Alden was saying as much in that piece I put up yesterday.

It's worth noting that the 10 year tips yield peaked mar 18 2021 and the 10 yr constant May 12...they're not moving in sync.So recent downturn is more from tips yield dropping longer and harder than 10 yr constant.

 

 

on another matter CP,I was thinking about that Eric Nuttall psot I put up yesterday.He was reiterating a lot of the sutff you've taught us ref US shale/OPEC supply etc etc.He come across as a perma bull(which makes me one I guess).How realsitc do you think he is and do you have a view on his commentary-is it hyperbolic to talk about oilies returning to 7 times enterprise value?

No pressure if you'd rathyer not say.

1 hour ago, planit said:

This could fit in with a worry on the Delta variant.

UK cases are now higher than a lot of other countries and growing exponentially.

US now has 10% of cases as Delta variant and if you extrapolate forwards they could be like the UK in a few weeks. I am not completely sure but I think the vaccine uptake is lower in the US than here so it might affect them more.

 

I just now see a new risk that if this variant starts popping up as a problem in multiple countries including US and China there could be a pull back in markets everywhere. The quarantine procedures between countries have slowed down the progression so the markets have underestimated the risk (and it hasn't completely stopped the Delta variant moving countries)

 

Regarding the selling of oil shares earlier up thread, they are the main stocks I want to hold through the entire cycle so I won't be selling permanently as I want them to quadruple. I will trade in and out of some of my holding to not get too bored.

I suppose the question is: 

Over the next 8 years what shares will you hold? 

If you believe in a long cycle then the movements will be longer and larger. If you are selling out after a year or two then you will need to move into something else or wait for a crash. Just have a plan that looks past your next trade.

 

Lumber drop shows that supply can now come back on line to address demand. This should happen to motor vehicles, chips etc resulting in inflation dropping back.

 Oil price seems to be pricing in return to normal now which must be risky, there is no supply shortage so could have peaked for a while. It might be next year now before flying is back to normal.

 

 

We'll be holding for a decade with possibly a big sale ahead of a BK if I can see the wave coming in.

Otherwise,they look like a great way to protect yourself.

This new variant is a reason to keep us locked down.No more no less.The real NHS crisis is in cancer care,mental health,untreated heart disease etc as we're now witnessing record waiting lists form what I've read.

[janch]

15 hours ago, wherebee said:

Who thinks we're getting close to a point for a sale of some oilies?  The shootup in recent weeks has been notable.

I'm thinking of maybe selling all my BP as they seen most woke and fucked at the board level.

edit: up 48% inc divvies.

I've top-sliced BP and Repsol and I tend to do this with anything that seems to get ahead of itself so to speak.  I will keep an eye open and buy more if there are decent pullbacks.  Otherwise I'll sit on the cash and wait for the biggie.

Top-slicing as a strategy works for me as I have been known to sell a share completely and then annoyingly watch it continue to go up.  If the share I've top-sliced continues to rise then I still have skin in the game but if it falls I won't lose so much and I've already banked some profit.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have  a similar feeling about Repsol, up 60% so far, what to do with it?

Talking my book here but have a check of the oilies chart I psoted Bob.I think there's some mileage in selling the odd runner and sticking it on one of the underperformers.Hence I sold EQNR and roebought shell and some telecoms.

Having said that,markets can be irrational and that trade might not work out but for me EQNR has run ahead of the pack to the point where selling it for rdsb made sense-to me at least.(it was way above pre covid price).

2 hours ago, planit said:

Lumber drop shows that supply can now come back on line to address demand. This should happen to motor vehicles, chips etc resulting in inflation dropping back.

 Oil price seems to be pricing in return to normal now which must be risky, there is no supply shortage so could have peaked for a while. It might be next year now before flying is back to normal.

 

 

Lumber looked like a short squeeze in type.I'd love to see one in oil when perception of supply stops matching demand.

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Pretty crappy virus to release, in that it doesn't kill anyone who wasn't on deaths door anyway.

Not if the intention was to put enough fear into your enemies so they rush out an experimental 'vaccine' to 'protect' against what the Chinese said was the genetic make up of the virus? I hope myself and a lot of very clever and brave true scientists are wrong on all this but the inventor of mRNA 'vaccine' technology (some 30 years ago and NEVER trialled in humans as all the animals in trials died) certainly thinks it should never have been used for generating a spike protein to "lessen serious symptoms" for Covid. There's also a great deal of evidence being published weekly that it's the spike proteins themselves and which in those who have had the jab the 'vaccines' are generating that will actually cause many more deaths than the original Covid. I won't clog up this thread with more as there are several great threads on here about all this but at the end of the day if people are serious at trying to keep ahead of things via macro economics but haven't seen this clear and present danger to humanity then our ISAs and investments won't be much use to any of us

 

[Hancock]

44 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Not if the intention was to put enough fear into your enemies so they rush out an experimental 'vaccine' to 'protect

There is no way, that the Chinese or anyone could have predicted the reaction from western govts, even if SAGE were bought and paid for by the Chinese as opposed to Gates!

 

[geordie_lurch]

51 minutes ago, Hancock said:

There is no way, that the Chinese or anyone could have predicted the reaction from western govts, even if SAGE were bought and paid for by the Chinese as opposed to Gates!

Go look how quickly these new 'vaccines' were developed...

"Moderna designed its vaccine in just two days in January, before some people had even heard of the coronavirus."

And from this link

"You may be surprised to learn that of the trio of long-awaited coronavirus vaccines, the most promising, Moderna’s mRNA-1273, which reported a 94.5 percent efficacy rate on November 16, had been designed by January 13. This was just two days after the genetic sequence had been made public in an act of scientific and humanitarian generosity that resulted in China’s Yong-Zhen Zhang’s being temporarily forced out of his lab. In Massachusetts, the Moderna vaccine design took all of one weekend. It was completed before China had even acknowledged that the disease could be transmitted from human to human, more than a week before the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States. By the time the first American death was announced a month later, the vaccine had already been manufactured and shipped to the National Institutes of Health for the beginning of its Phase I clinical trial."

However as I say there are lots of other threads on here such as here and here for anyone that is at least slightly suspicious of what the Governments around the world have been telling us in a co-ordinated 'Great Reset' style

 

[Lightscribe]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-11/china-s-buying-so-much-corn-that-its-ports-are-getting-clogged
 

Looks like China’s preparing for supply line disruptions later this year, good timing too just as inflation hits and possible food shortages next year.

I have a feeling that the ‘just in time’ distribution chain is going to be ripped a new one. Britain could easily be made an example of, as we’re a sitting target. We hardly make anything ourselves anymore, and what we do we rely on other labour for.

If we do start to suffer logistically in this country, the Tax credit Tracy’s are hardly going to jump into their local factories to ‘Dig For Victory’. 

[wherebee]

Well, I took profits on BP and sold all but a small lump.  Up over 50% on the original price.

I'd rather have money in the bank than see a further 10% rise and then a 35% fall.  That's my BK prep done!

[CVG]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

Well, I took profits on BP and sold all but a small lump.  Up over 50% on the original price.

I'd rather have money in the bank than see a further 10% rise and then a 35% fall.  That's my BK prep done!

I'm looking to take a similar approach as some others here, i.e. take some money off the table in advance of the potential BK.

But what is your strategy in the event that we go 3/6/9 mo's with no BK? I'm thinking that I'll leave it in cash for 6mo and then just start drip-feeding back in month by month.

[jamtomorrow]

15 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm looking to take a similar approach as some others here, i.e. take some money off the table in advance of the potential BK.

But what is your strategy in the event that we go 3/6/9 mo's with no BK? I'm thinking that I'll leave it in cash for 6mo and then just start drip-feeding back in month by month.

My approach in all this: what metrics or indicators can we look at to understand the *stability* of the monetary system?

Price action seems weak in this respect - I don't doubt it will swing around wildly if/when instability surfaces, but it's a lagging indicator at best.

I'm yet to find a convincing stability proxy, so my equity pot is still sat 50/50 allocated vs cash.

[wherebee]

55 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm looking to take a similar approach as some others here, i.e. take some money off the table in advance of the potential BK.

But what is your strategy in the event that we go 3/6/9 mo's with no BK? I'm thinking that I'll leave it in cash for 6mo and then just start drip-feeding back in month by month.

I have a need for free cash in the next 6 months, hence the extra drive to take profits.  I probably won't feed in unless there is a nice dip.