Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

last year was a one off lol, it's actually over double what it was, 0.6% to 1.33% but that's still well believe the long term average which is good cos them dum yanks can't afford their debts in anycase 

I added to that post, I think it's out of the yanks hands now.....over to the hypocrites in red.....

So what are you expecting, market crash, black Monday?

[nirvana]

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

So what are you expecting, market crash, black Monday?

depends which big banks are holding masses of Evergrande bonds

I've heard

- UBS - HSBC - Royal Bank of Canada - BlackRock

oops, I think the chinky government halted bond trading for the time being lol

I'd laugh my tits off if they took someone like HSBC out

like I said, depends if they can contain it or not...

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

depends which big banks are holding masses of Evergrande bonds

I've heard

- UBS - HSBC - Royal Bank of Canada - BlackRock

oops, I think the chinky government halted bond trading for the time being lol

I'd laugh my tits off if they took someone like HSBC out

like I said, depends if they can contain it or not...

 

Talk about covering all your bases!

My guess is that nothing happens

Nothing ever happens.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Nothing ever happens.

of course it's all realtive lol

posted a pic in Evergrande thread, HSBC are in the shit!!! 

[Loki]

Just now, nirvana said:

of course it's all realtive lol

posted a pic in Evergrande thread, HSBC are in the shit!!! 

I expect another economy-saving fiscal-stasis variant imminently then! 

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

I expect another economy-saving fiscal-stasis variant imminently then! 

well that works till it doesn't, reminder of 'the race to the bottom' story

if the chinkies have to print zillions of yuan to bail themselves out, they'll export global deflation on a massive scale, I think I read about that one a few years ago lol

[Boon]

19 minutes ago, nirvana said:

well that works till it doesn't, reminder of 'the race to the bottom' story

if the chinkies have to print zillions of yuan to bail themselves out, they'll export global deflation on a massive scale, I think I read about that one a few years ago lol

If they tell all the foreign banks to go fuck themselves and print the money to reimburse their own citizens, maybe that would work?
Probably would only need to make $100bn, which is chicken feed compared to what the US are planning.

[Loki]

BP managed to finish the day down, amazing. 

[Errol]

 

[nirvana]

25 minutes ago, Boon said:

If they tell all the foreign banks to go fuck themselves and print the money to reimburse their own citizens, maybe that would work?
Probably would only need to make $100bn, which is chicken feed compared to what the US are planning.

well apparently the bondholders have chosen their lawyers so let battle commence! lol

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

depends which big banks are holding masses of Evergrande bonds

I've heard

- UBS - HSBC - Royal Bank of Canada - BlackRock

oops, I think the chinky government halted bond trading for the time being lol

I'd laugh my tits off if they took someone like HSBC out

like I said, depends if they can contain it or not...

 

War is coming...invest in lead

[ThoughtCriminal]

My new investment strategy.

 

Day 1................ 

[Chewing Grass]

Word of mouth got round at work that I 'knew what I was talking about' at work with regard to Pensions.

Just had the second engineer this month ask me to explain their fresh pension 'statement', what it was worth and what they could do.

Today's is 59 and needs the money, its in a BAE Systems scheme which is unfathomably complex and appears to be some hybrid between final salary and money purchase.

The one earlier in the month was a private scheme that the engineer drifted into when his employer was privatised and is again so good he wants the money now.

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

Completely agree, many cannot see the point in pushing any more. Time to relax.

It's a complete mess.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Trouble is those non-speculative, defensive, income generating companies typically carry a lot of debt and/or negative equity net of intangibles (particularly goodwill).  That is, they have been hollowed out.   Not just the utilities, by a long way.

More of the Asian and Russian ones tend to be better on this score, as do several energy companies generally, but it's going to be tough in the US in particular if people do care (which a few solvency blow ups would encourage). 

Again, potentially points to a stock pickers market if going that way (some sages say just stay out and trade the options).  At least I hope so because I've passed on enought profits on fundamentally weak companies bid up by those who don't care!

Agreed. I should mention that I only use a proxy for judging debt, basically debt/equity ratio, tangible vs intangible assets, and fcf for debt payment affordability. Not ideal, I'd prefer to do a full debt profile including knowing loan bond duration and rates but unfortunately would take me too long.                                                                    There are some sectors with low debt, chemicals and farm land come to mind. However I bet institutions will move their ex-bond money big time into the carbon credit market, open to us retail also of course but I can't find enough independent commentators, apart from Marin Katusa, in order for me to properly evaluate this market.                                                                                                                                                     I also agree what you say about the options market. Actually I would like to try out options at some point but would only do so if/when we get a subscription advice type service here in UK, such as the US operation (can't recall their name, that we spoke about previously) that is apparently coming here soon. I just think Id personally need some 'hand-holding' for say couple years and would be willing to pay for this (approx 2k/annum I believe).

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Love me some Chevron. Old school.

Top.  I own Chevron.  I now know why I liked their financials with a guy like that at the helm.  I have indeed planted my own trees, about 400, and have invested in solar so it's a good match!  Makes the muppets look like, well, muppets!

[Bobthebuilder]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Makes the muppets look like, well, muppets!

 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Word of mouth got round at work that I 'knew what I was talking about' at work with regard to Pensions.

Just had the second engineer this month ask me to explain their fresh pension 'statement', what it was worth and what they could do.

Today's is 59 and needs the money, its in a BAE Systems scheme which is unfathomably complex and appears to be some hybrid between final salary and money purchase.

The one earlier in the month was a private scheme that the engineer drifted into when his employer was privatised and is again so good he wants the money now.

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

Did hey say what they wanted the money for?

Odds on its properdee. Odds on its a nagging wife, counting the rent, forgetting  the voids and costs.

Nuts, as they cannot get the yield.

 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Word of mouth got round at work that I 'knew what I was talking about' at work with regard to Pensions.

Just had the second engineer this month ask me to explain their fresh pension 'statement', what it was worth and what they could do.

Today's is 59 and needs the money, its in a BAE Systems scheme which is unfathomably complex and appears to be some hybrid between final salary and money purchase.

The one earlier in the month was a private scheme that the engineer drifted into when his employer was privatised and is again so good he wants the money now.

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

The currencies have been debased.

CB fault.

If they maintained a low yield then there would not be this problem.

The FED understands this, being closer to money markets.

No such thing in the UK, bar BS savings, which have been destroyed.

Not sure how the BoE can respond - other than having to put up IRs more.

The UK inflation is now showign that the BoE has lost it.

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Did hey say what they wanted the money for?

Odds on its properdee. Odds on its a nagging wife, counting the rent, forgetting  the voids and costs.

Nuts, as they cannot get the yield.

 

No, he has just been on the receiving end of a divorce and is worn out and skint, lives in a rented terrace house.

Think the only thing that keeps him going are his school age kids.

The other one needs the money to fix his gable end wall and roof on his end terrace, high-skill jobs in the Engineering Sector for those that do (rather than manage) don't pay that much compared to 30 plus years ago.

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

No, he has just been on the receiving end of a divorce and is worn out and skint, lives in a rented terrace house.

Think the only thing that keeps him going are his school age kids.

The other one needs the money to fix his gable end wall and roof on his end terrace, high-skill jobs in the Engineering Sector for those that do (rather than manage) don't pay that much compared to 30 plus years ago.

Iv always has lots of people asking for help around finances,pension more the last few years.Iv found there are lots of people who worked far too long.One guy hated work with a passion,58,with a transfer he had £400k ,but his wife already had an £800 a month final salary pension in payment and both had full state pensions.His wife had a part time job as well.It was fear and lack of understanding  that stopped him.

Whats certain now though is lots more are deciding to pack in early and access pensions.Its one of the factors in employers not being able to get staff.

I noticed today a few big empoyers out in the sticks Quorn been one are all wanting staff,obvious their eastern European destroy local wages slaves havent returned.They are even offering to bus you in from Redcar.

[GTM]

Sleazy Joe is coming to sort oil and gas prices out:

So politicians have spent the last couple of decades kicking the oil companies in the bollocks and stealing their lunch money. They finally get a well deserved punch in the face back and they go crying to mummy. That boy isn't sharing they say through pathetic sobs.

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv always has lots of people asking for help around finances,pension more the last few years.Iv found there are lots of people who worked far too long.One guy hated work with a passion,58,with a transfer he had £400k ,but his wife already had an £800 a month final salary pension in payment and both had full state pensions.His wife had a part time job as well.It was fear and lack of understanding  that stopped him.

Whats certain now though is lots more are deciding to pack in early and access pensions.Its one of the factors in employers not being able to get staff.

I noticed today a few big empoyers out in the sticks Quorn been one are all wanting staff,obvious their eastern European destroy local wages slaves havent returned.They are even offering to bus you in from Redcar.

I cashed some in, knowing the risks.  Not a lot though.  I value optionality.  Earmarked for cost saving non financial investments.

24 minutes ago, GTM said:

Sleazy Joe is coming to sort oil and gas prices out:

So politicians have spent the last couple of decades kicking the oil companies in the bollocks and stealing their lunch money. They finally get a well deserved punch in the face back and they go crying to mummy. That boy isn't sharing they say through pathetic sobs.

We have sooo been here before in history!

[Harley]

Reduced my HKD (stocks and cash) holdings as well as HSBC exposure overnight.  Kept some gooduns though.  What with this noise, Johnathan Davis' warning, and us getting into bed with our own version of North Korea, I'm cautious.  Ready to buy back in if and when but with risk funds.  Now on to deal with potential ripples!

[StrugglingMillennial]

Apparently Evergrande has been delaying wages to their staff, I'm starting to now think about how many suppliers they would wipe out when they don't pay them as well.

It does make you wonder just how much of an impact this could have on the global market.