Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nowhere to store it,they are closing the fantastic areas in the North Sea at pace.

Hopefully in the future INFA does a McShare 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I hear tales from people of the 70s and they'd quit somewhere on a Friday and find somewhere down the street the next Monday.

Iv had another phone call since that post offering a job.I told them the salary was way to low given how high inflation was and the NI tax increases,but wished them luck.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

DRAX gave us a lovely treble didnt it.This is also going to destroy all the competition to Centrica.I noticed the two that went under the other day the regulator gave Centrica the customers.They are waking up now to their folly.All those small players thought they could win by using the spot market,same as many in Europe on gas,but now they are being slaughtered.Russia will honour contracts but keep spot market tight.Centrica might just reward us yet.

 

The magic word written three times in one post. Times, they are a changin.

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

I told them the salary was way to low given how high inflation was and the NI tax increases,but wished them luck.

Doing more for workers than the government 

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Whats really really pleasing is though is that whats going on shows that the long dis-inflation cycle has meant nobody uses macro anymore.Thats great news for us all on here.

I've just been reflecting on this as a thread running though a number of recent financial posts as well as sociopolitically - peak short termism and bluster supported by disinflation, money printing, new social media toys, etc.  The loss of critical thinking.  Every aspect of life has become a tracker mindlessly and productively following the collective!  Now more than ever is the time for a free mind, critical thinking, imagination, respect for the true data, and basic technical competence.

I've just been listening to an economist.  Blah-blah, inflation versus deflation, binary thought, blah-blah, some have bought the inflation cool aid, monetary economics say this, models say that, the future is just a projection of the past.  Superficial beyond belief.  You can have both!  Indeed one will feed the other.  Sure the toys could become cheap but that's as (even because) money gets sucked into paying for the essentials which are not!

It's like virgin territory.

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv had another phone call since that post offering a job.I told them the salary was way to low given how high inflation was and the NI tax increases,but wished them luck.

Tart!

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

REITS.  Assuming it's good to have property in your portfolio given inflation, etc what's the best?  That is, the devil is in the detail as offices per se may be a bit iffy (if WFH, etc sticks).  So any good areas and companies to look at?  I ask as I've started looking at data centres and an asian one just popped up on my radar.  Any other areas, companies, funds, etc?  

PS:  Oh look...QTS to be acquired by Blackstone!

I think farm land is also good, i'm currently looking at the sector, but finding most good reits/funds are for private/institutional buyers only - a la Blackstone!!

...not actual reits but @DurhamBornmentioned brazil agro and village farms a while back. 

Funny you should mention data-centers as are next on my list to look into. Whats your thinking on them Harley?... i am thinking kinda decomplex and also own assets if the company doesn't carry large debt? 

Yes, specialist reits (though not office ones as you comment) are i think good - how about: Medical Properties Trust (mpw). It is US/global, 5% divi, financials look good, however 122% debt-equity... but it is on my BK/wish list for when/if it gets cheap.

 

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I hear tales from people of the 70s and they'd quit somewhere on a Friday and find somewhere down the street the next Monday.

My dad didn't even bother quitting.  I kid you not.  Went on "holiday" on the Monday, tried the new job, didn't like it, returned to work the following Monday!

[Bobthebuilder]

20 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thats a great point. It's really obviously the case, eh? Kind of reminds me about how NASA lost the how-to-do-it manuals of the Apollo programe, big problem in institutions with passing on knowledge. Humans have lost knowledge over and over again. Now only literally a handful of people know wtf is going on in the economy!

I am starting to notice the same in building trades, more people starting to retire / take it a bit easier, etc. The new kids on the block are getting the basics wrong and messing things up from the start, no experience = losing money.

Looked at a kitchen fit for my builder mate today, young kitchen designer had planned it. Doesn't fit, doesn't work, layout all wrong with no allowances for old rooms not being square etc.

Knowledge not shared is lost.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

".....no allowances for old rooms not being square.....".

Sums it all up really!

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, Starsend said:

How do you know this?

 

I live in place cursed with FHL.

The two main BSes that allow FHL mortgages are Cumberland and Leeds BS.

Pretty much every other bank steer well clear, having be burned in the 90s recession.

Both those banks want some sort of confirmation/indication of property bought.

They'll also might ask for your books to check you are letting it at the agreed rate.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

I agree with @spygirl on this; if my conversation last week is anything to go by, I suspect any funds agreed will be held until you have reached at least the contractual part of your "second home" purchase - which, to be fair, you would expect. No way are they going to say "OK, Starsend, here's £150k, crack on and good luck in your second home." 

Seriously, the depth of questioning even at pre-formal application stage was extensive, almost intrusive. Hence my previous post that the banks are happy to lend against property in some form (here I disagree with Spy), but you have no chance of smuggling their free cash out of the property market; this is merely another prop, albeit seemingly funded via the private sector (if you can call RBS et al private sector...).

Banks will lend *SOME* money to property.

Want to borrow 60% LTV then the banks will roll out the stops - as long as you pass MMR.

However .. at the mo, despite the BS, bank new lending is not keeping up with mortgages being paid off.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

41 minutes ago, JMD said:

I think farm land is also good, i'm currently looking at the sector, but finding most good reits/funds are for private/institutional buyers only - a la Blackstone!!

...not actual reits but @DurhamBornmentioned brazil agro and village farms a while back. 

Funny you should mention data-centers as are next on my list to look into. Whats your thinking on them Harley?... i am thinking kinda decomplex and also own assets if the company doesn't carry large debt? 

Yes, specialist reits (though not office ones as you comment) are i think good - how about: Medical Properties Trust (mpw). It is US/global, 5% divi, financials look good, however 122% debt-equity... but it is on my BK/wish list for when/if it gets cheap.

 

Yes ticker AGRO ,up 17% on them since i bought a few months back,but still look good.

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Fucked. Absolute solar panel, wind turbine, up the shitter, fucked. 

Nuclear may be expensive, but it seriously looks like the UK is going to get a lesson in how expensive running out of generation capacity is going to be.  Save us Rolls Royce!

Cherry on the cake would be the lights going out in the Glasgow NEC during COP 26.

[Starsend]

20 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

I live in place cursed with FHL.

The two main BSes that allow FHL mortgages are Cumberland and Leeds BS.

Pretty much every other bank steer well clear, having be burned in the 90s recession.

Both those banks want some sort of confirmation/indication of property bought.

They'll also might ask for your books to check you are letting it at the agreed rate.

 

 

 

Banks will lend *SOME* money to property.

Want to borrow 60% LTV then the banks will roll out the stops - as long as you pass MMR.

However .. at the mo, despite the BS, bank new lending is not keeping up with mortgages being paid off.

 

 

I'm a bit surprised that you're saying it's so onerous. Haven't people being using their homes as cashpoints to spend on new cars, expensive holidays for the last twenty years? I certainly know many who did exactly this and I don't believe any of them were asked to prove how much they actually paid for the car or the holiday.

Are you saying it's completely changed?

What is FHL?

For clarification I am looking at mortgaging my currently paid for house at about 25% of the value; looking to borrow £100,000 on a £400,000 house.

My income covers the mortgage easily.

There's just about no risk to the bank at all that I can see, so why do they give a fuck? After all they haven't done for the last couple of decades.

I guess I'll just have to see but if it gets intrusive or a pain in the arse then I'll just drop it, not overly bothered alhtough it would have been nice to borrow at 1%.

 

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

I agree with @spygirl on this; if my conversation last week is anything to go by, I suspect any funds agreed will be held until you have reached at least the contractual part of your "second home" purchase - which, to be fair, you would expect. No way are they going to say "OK, Starsend, here's £150k, crack on and good luck in your second home." 

Seriously, the depth of questioning even at pre-formal application stage was extensive, almost intrusive. Hence my previous post that the banks are happy to lend against property in some form (here I disagree with Spy), but you have no chance of smuggling their free cash out of the property market; this is merely another prop, albeit seemingly funded via the private sector (if you can call RBS et al private sector...).

I'm surprised at why they wouldn't to be honest. If it's secured against an asset worth £400k + covered by a salary then there's no risk to them.

If it's as much hassle as you say then I won't be bothering but I'll prob give it a go and report back.

[Don Coglione]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

I'm surprised at why they wouldn't to be honest. If it's secured against an asset worth £400k + covered by a salary then there's no risk to them.

If it's as much hassle as you say then I won't be bothering but I'll prob give it a go and report back.

I too was surprised, hence my conclusion that the banks have been directed to lend this free money in order to prop up the housing market.

Please do report your experience; perhaps I just caught someone having a bad day, but I doubt it.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I'm a bit surprised that you're saying it's so onerous. Haven't people being using their homes as cashpoints to spend on new cars, expensive holidays for the last twenty years? I certainly know many who did exactly this and I don't believe any of them were asked to prove how much they actually paid for the car or the holiday.

Are you saying it's completely changed?

What is FHL?

For clarification I am looking at mortgaging my currently paid for house at about 25% of the value; looking to borrow £100,000 on a £400,000 house.

My income covers the mortgage easily.

There's just about no risk to the bank at all that I can see, so why do they give a fuck? After all they haven't done for the last couple of decades.

I guess I'll just have to see but if it gets intrusive or a pain in the arse then I'll just drop it, not overly bothered alhtough it would have been nice to borrow at 1%.

 

FHL furnished holiday let.

Banks can be funny about remortgages. You need a life equity and be relatively young.

Mortgage market and lenders changed totally after MMR.

You'll need to see what the banks valuer say about the house valuation.

The risk for the bank us that you default and theyve the pita of repoing.

You re likely to borrow at around 1.5%

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Hopefully in the future INFA does a McShare 

They should be called the Irish play.

I'm amazed at how long its taken the Irish govt not to make the final decision. It can only be YES or NO.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

They should be called the Irish play.

I'm amazed at how long its taken the Irish govt not to make the final decision. It can only be YES or NO.

In the face of imminent energy, macro, infrastructure etc changes i wouldn't be surprised if they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory though

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

In the face of imminent energy, macro, infrastructure etc changes i wouldn't be surprised if they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory though

Yes "no" is the easier decision, so maybe they're waiting for an excuse.

I now need it to double to get my money back and get out of there, and thats my intention at the moment.

Irony is it will more than likely quadruple if Island Magee gets the go ahead and they get a few ship building contracts.

[planit]

 

Universal Credit: Cut is two hours extra work for claimants, says Therese Coffey

Asked about the reduction on Monday, Ms Coffey told BBC Breakfast: "I'm conscious that £20 a week is about two hours' extra work every week.

"We will be seeing what we can do to help people perhaps secure those extra hours, but ideally also to make sure they're also in a place to get better paid jobs as well."

But the Resolution Foundation disputed her figures, as claimants who work additional hours see their benefits reduced - or for each £1 they earn, the UC payment falls by 63p.

The charity said a UC claimant earning the National Living Wage - £8.91 an hour - and with an income of at least £6,100 a year, would take home just £6.60 for two hours work due to the taper in the payment, falling to £4.48 if they pay tax and National Insurance.

And they said the actual take home pay would fall to £2.24 an hour once any pension contributions or additional childcare or travel costs were taken into account.

This would mean they would need to work nine extra hours a week to make up for the removal of the £20 uplift

 

 

Seems to me the Resolution Foundation have actually highlighted the problem by mistake.

Giving people taxpayer money not to work with a framework that takes away any benefit from working more.

 

 

[Errol]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ofgen cap going up 13%.

 

Just got to look through inflation though, piece of piss. 

 

Feels like that scene in The Big Short where they realise what's coming and that the masses havent got a fucking clue. 

 

 

It's going to get very nasty:

 

 

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,those idiots will be paying DRAX to run their turbines to use up the energy not produce it.Pumped storage was a no brainer for wind like you say,but they all fell for the we can use batteries as backup lunacy.

Whats really really pleasing is though is that whats going on shows that the long dis-inflation cycle has meant nobody uses macro anymore.Thats great news for us all on here.

Government is in serious trouble now,and i mean serious.Inflation is going to hit hard in all the basics,the UK is now the NHS with a government attached,they cant sustain the state without massive tax increases or massive inflation.The beauty now is these value sucking area like the NHS and welfare will devour each other.Want more NHS,cut welfare,etc.

BOE is running out of road to monetise.Maybe £90billion more max without a BK.

The whole comfortable benefits lifestyle is going away isn't it over the next decade, it'll go back to being a basic safety net as it should be. Have I got that right DB. I see that as the only way to incentivise people to work. 

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

I think farm land is also good, i'm currently looking at the sector, but finding most good reits/funds are for private/institutional buyers only - a la Blackstone!!

...not actual reits but @DurhamBornmentioned brazil agro and village farms a while back. 

Funny you should mention data-centers as are next on my list to look into. Whats your thinking on them Harley?... i am thinking kinda decomplex and also own assets if the company doesn't carry large debt? 

Yes, specialist reits (though not office ones as you comment) are i think good - how about: Medical Properties Trust (mpw). It is US/global, 5% divi, financials look good, however 122% debt-equity... but it is on my BK/wish list for when/if it gets cheap.

 

Yep the debt to equity and current ratios seem a bit uncomfortable for me.  Maybe I need to get used to it.  Lots been bought up or never went public.  Maybe some guys like to keep their data nice and secure!  My initial trawl produced:

SGX:AJBU,NYSE:COR,NASDAQ:CONE,NYSE:DLR,NASDAQ:EQIX,NASDAQ:VPN,AMEX:SRVR,AMEX:ICF,NYSE:CCI,NYSE:AMT,NYSE:FSLY,HKEX:728,TSE:9433,NYSE:VZ,NASDAQ:CYXT,HKEX:762,NASDAQ:VNET,NYSE:LUMN,NYSE:IRM,NYSE:SWCH.

DYOR.  I need to do some deep dives as quite a mix fundamentally and, like everything atm, a bit rich technically.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes ticker AGRO ,up 17% on them since i bought a few months back,but still look good.

Which one is that (i.e. exchange) please?  I get lots listed.