Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Majorpain]

11 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Gregory Copley warns that the CCP is deliberately tanking the Chinese economy to manage deflation.

https://outline.com/3UAS3M

https://m.theepochtimes.com/a-window-opens-to-irrational-behavior_3978372.html

I think this is something really worth being aware of- the CCP is central to China- even if millions die- the CCP doesn’t care- they don’t care that they’ve wiped Trillions off the Beijing and Shanghai markets ($1 trillion  alone in August)- it’s a different mindset- bloody minded. It’ll be interesting if they step away from the flexible exchange rate as they continue  “managing the deflation”- that would set the cat among the pigeons.

Very interesting thanks, especially the likes of India which is something ill keep an eye on.  I especially like the following, it was always going to be struggle between free market led mercantilist export China and CCP lead communist China, and one of those has the guns and social credit score system.

Quote

Watch, then, for a massive and deliberate tanking of the Chinese economy as part of Xi’s attempts to re-define the country on Maoist lines. He argues that returning to an “internal circulation” economy is the only way to save the CCP in the wake of rising economic, demographic, and food challenges.

 

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Oh dear...

Great time to raise taxes though eh?

Thank god prices are shooting up and no one can afford a house.

[dnb24]

13 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Very interesting thanks, especially the likes of India which is something ill keep an eye on.  I especially like the following, it was always going to be struggle between free market led mercantilist export China and CCP lead communist China, and one of those has the guns and social credit score system.

 

It’s very interesting as Xi is starting to dress like Mao- everything in China seems  to be moving back to the old Maoist approach. Even the Congress and committee meetings are taking on an air of Maoism- very sombre etc- command economy returns?

[belfastchild]

Being a lefty(ish) I listen to economist David McWilliams podcasts. Met him at a conference in Dublin many many years ago just before the big crash.

His latest podcast is about China and the closedown. Now its from a taiwanese perspective so all the caveats that entails but thought it was interesting as it follows some of the other chinese content recently.

David is very well connected so a lot of his stuff does resonate in a lot of places.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/169-thegreatchineseclosedown

[dnb24]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting that he sees that central to Modi's plan is to go to war with Pakistan to isolate China.WOuld obviosuly bring the West in on India's side non?

I think so, the key part to this is Azad Kashmir- if India can build out from Kashmir and connect into Afghanistan it will link its maritime ports into Central Asia especially Uzbekistan.

With the USA now out of Afghanistan- India will do this independently to what the US says or asks. 

[Democorruptcy]

On 07/09/2021 at 14:00, DurhamBorn said:

BT will be in play i expect,but i really hope it doesnt get taken private.There are cycle long profits to come in the sector and i dont want it giving up to others.  @Harley warned us about everything that creates real profit being taken private so ordinary people cant own assets and it was something i didnt consider.My roadmap is proving superb,but if we get profit and return engines taken off us only 20% along the road its not good at all.We could get it all right yet still lose the lot to inflation by cycle end if we lose the assets so early in the cycle.

Goes without saying of course keep buying the sector.

After all that hoo-ha about Huawei kit causing us a 5G security problem, couldn't BT be nationalised to stop it falling into the wrong hands?

[jamtomorrow]

31 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Oh dear...

Great time to raise taxes though eh?

And therein lies the biggest question of all for where we find ourselves ... what will economic activity do during this re-/inflation? It's why I keep banging on about velocity - you have to allow for changes in money supply to get a metric that is somewhat independent of Central Bank shenanigans.

And 0.1% is *nowhere near* keeping up with money supply.

If it walks like a stagflation, talks like a stagflation ...

[wherebee]

17 hours ago, nirvana said:

thin willow branches are ace for that too! ie ones you can snap easily without doing your knees in.....

helpful hint: use your toilet roll tubes you all horde (I know as good DOSBODDERS you throw nothing away), fill them with the lint you get out of the clothes washer filters, and hey presto, an instant firelighter.  You can store them easily in an empty cereal packet and you have a whole winters worth of firelighters for free!

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

After all that hoo-ha about Huawei kit causing us a 5G security problem, couldn't BT be nationalised to stop it falling into the wrong hands?

It could,but wont be.Im not sure how it would play out,the best fit would be Telefonica,but cant because of o2.Vod isnt out of the question.What the telcos are really doing though and need to is share more of their kit,and use co kit.That way they can stop competing as much.Use say the tower company to charge them all the same high amount,they then all have to pass the costs on,but all get the profit.

Whatever telcos are entering a much nicer cycle for them.It could take a while for value to surface,but it will in time.Inflation used to hit them as people used their landlines less to save money,but now inflation is a real tailwind.If they can pass on 4% inflation pa it should see free cash increase 12%+ ,one of the few areas that can leverage the increases,assuming regulators keep off the case and their debt books are well structured.

[Bricormortis]

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/an-inconsistent-crash-indicator-triggered-giving-fuel-to-bears-194627661.html

 

Worth a read on the hidenburg omen...not an indicator of a crash but it always happens just before a crash.  Happened twice recently

Is anyone selling up ?

[Hancock]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone selling up ?

No, but ive plenty of cash thats being inflated away in relation to the stock market at present.

Thing with these endless graphs and charts, is they're constantly predicting an impending doom.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

No, but ive plenty of cash thats being inflated away in relation to the stock market at present.

Thing with these endless graphs and charts, is they're constantly predicting an impending doom.

It's more the 2 FED blocks selling up that would make me think 

Of course, they wouldn't be that blatant/corrupt/obvious.

Next Fed meeting Sept 21/22

Lets see what happens.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's more the 2 FED blocks selling up that would make me think 

Of course, they wouldn't be that blatant/corrupt/obvious.

Next Fed meeting Sept 21/22

Lets see what happens.

It would be interesting to see what they own and are selling etc,and what their trusts and wives are buying.The liquidity is already out there,so its a matter of where it goes now.

[sancho panza]

Interesting comment from @Cattle Prod the other day ref the next leg in oil coming via a weaker dollar.Luke Gromen et al have argued that Fed ending QE will mean recession,also Fed not ending QE will create price inflation and then recession.The 'hope strategy' lies in not ending QE.

Leaves the Fed at odds with ECB/BoE/BoC et al who have tapered/are planning to taper.But then they can without cratering their economies as they aren't the world's reserve currencies.

Are we on the verge of watching the next leg down in the dollar?If we are then that chimes with historical BK warning signs

I'd be interested if any people with some macro udnerstanding @DurhamBorn ?anyone else? could shed any light on whetehr the Fed doesn't have the room to taper that the otehrs do?I think that's key to me understanding where we are and I'm confussed on that.

Full Wolf post,in bold for skim readers.Fed polciy here is key in terms of timing BK imho.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/09/09/the-process-of-ending-massive-money-printing-has-started/

The Process of Ending Massive Money Printing Has Started

by Wolf Richter • Sep 9, 2021 • 65 Comments

ECB is second giant to taper. Bank of Japan already ended QE. Bank of Canada shed 15% of its assets. Bank of England & Reserve Bank of Australia are tapering. Reserve Bank of New Zealand quit QE cold turkey. Riksbank will end QE this year. What’s taking the Fed so long?

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The ECB has increased the assets on its balance sheet by a monstrous €154 billion ($181 billion) per month so far this year via an alphabet soup of programs, blowing by even the crazed money-printers at the Fed with their average rate of $123 billion a month. While there appears to be consensus at the Fed that “tapering” its asset purchases will begin this year and will be completed in the first half next year, with assets then remaining level, the ECB announced today that it will start tapering its asset purchases now.

And thereby it is way behind the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Reserve Bank of Australia. But ahead of the Fed.

Following in the footsteps of the Bank of England, which had denied in May that its tapering was tapering, and in the footsteps of the Bank of Canada, which had denied last October that its tapering was tapering – though it has since then cut QE to nearly nothing and shed 15% of its assets – ECB President Christine Lagarde also denied at the press conference today that tapering was tapering, and stressed that tapering was instead a “recalibration” of QE.

Markets eagerly swallow these taper denials hook, line, and sinker. Anything but tapering.

In the press release, the ECB said that the pace of net asset purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) would be “moderately lower.” PEPP is the biggie in the alphabet soup of programs, running at about €80 billion ($95 billion) per month recently.

The ECB didn’t specify by how much it would reduce its purchases under PEPP, but said that it would “purchase flexibly according to market conditions.”

The asset purchases under PEPP will continue in diminished form “at least” until March 2022. After that, the balance would be level “at least” until the end of 2023, before the “roll-off” of those bonds might begin. The roll-off means that bonds mature and roll off the balance sheet when they’re redeemed and would not be replaced with new purchases. This has the effect of reducing the bond portfolio over time as bonds mature.

The other programs would go on as before.

The Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO III) will continue. These are loans to Eurozone banks, now with a balance of €2.2 trillion.

The Asset Purchase Program (APP), the now relatively small classic QE program that existed before the pandemic and includes sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, covered bonds, and asset-backed securities, would continue at a monthly rate of €20 billion and would “end shortly before” the ECB starts raising its interest rates.

This is in line with the consensus among central banks, confirmed by the Fed, that QE needs to end before interest rates can be hiked, on the rationale that QE pushes down long-term rates, while raising policy rates pushes up short-term rates, which would wreak havoc on the yield curve.

As of this week, total assets on the ECB’s balance sheet rose to €8.2 trillion ($9.7 trillion), about $1.4 trillion more monstrous than the Fed’s monstrous holdings. The four largest groups of assets on the ECB’s balance sheet are:

• €4.6 trillion in bonds (mostly sovereign bonds, but also corporate bonds, covered bonds, and asset backed securities).
• €2.2 trillion in loans to banks under TLTRO III
• €515 billion in gold and gold receivables
• €477 billion in foreign currency assets

Shrinking its balance sheet is not new for the ECB. It has reduced its assets by one-third over a two-year period, cutting them from €3.1 trillion in late 2012 to €2.0 trillion in late 2014.

In early 2015, it kicked off a massive QE program that ended in late 2018. From then until March 2020, assets remained flat.

Starting in March 2020, the ECB went hog-wild. And now the ECB is trying to figure out how to get out of this without blowing up the Eurozone:

Lagarde said that the decision to taper – oops, I mean, to recalibrate – the asset purchases was unanimous.

Timidly following in the footsteps of:

The Bank of Japan cut its asset purchase to near-zero, without any hoopla, thereby not only ending the pandemic QE binge but also the third leg of the economic religion of Abenomics – namely massive money printing. The current rate of asset purchases is minuscule and the lowest since before Abenomics in 2012:

The Bank of Canada started tapering its purchases of Government of Canada bonds last October, ended its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, and shed its repos and Canada Treasury bills, with the effect of cutting is total assets by 15% since the peak in March:

The Bank of England announced its decision to taper its asset purchases in May, and has since cut its weekly bond purchases, on net, from about £4 billion a week to close to £2 billion a week through the summer:

Reserve Bank of New Zealand ended its asset purchases cold turkey in May without tapering to pull the plug on the #1 housing bubble in the world:

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced in July that it would start tapering its asset purchases from A$5 billion a week to A$4 billion a week. Total assets on its balance sheet declined last week for the first time all year:

The Riksbank of Sweden confirmed that it is going to end QE entirely by late 2021.

And what is taking the Fed so long? No one knows. Amid the most monstrously overstimulated economy and markets ever, the Fed is still printing $120 billion a month, though there appears to a consensus to not fall much further behind the curve than it already is and start tapering its asset purchases this year.

[DurhamBorn]

India v Pakistan v China is going to play out in someway.Its one of the biggest reasons natural gas comes up as one of the best assets to own.These countries will all try to outrun the other.India is miles behind China of course,but in macro it doesnt matter where you start,its the direction that matters.BP is rolling out fuel stations across India for instance,though to the green lobby they are called "convenience stores" 

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting comment from @Cattle Prod the other day ref the next leg in oil coming via a weaker dollar.Luke Gromen et al have argued that Fed ending QE will mean recession,also Fed not ending QE will create price inflation and then recession.The 'hope strategy' lies in not ending QE.

Leaves the Fed at odds with ECB/BoE/BoC et al who have tapered/are planning to taper.But then they can without cratering their economies as they aren't the world's reserve currencies.

Are we on the verge of watching the next leg down in the dollar?If we are then that chimes with historical BK warning signs

I'd be interested if any people with some macro udnerstanding @DurhamBorn ?anyone else? could shed any light on whetehr the Fed doesn't have the room to taper that the otehrs do?I think that's key to me understanding where we are and I'm confussed on that.

Full Wolf post,in bold for skim readers.Fed polciy here is key in terms of timing BK imho.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/09/09/the-process-of-ending-massive-money-printing-has-started/

The Process of Ending Massive Money Printing Has Started

by Wolf Richter • Sep 9, 2021 • 65 Comments

ECB is second giant to taper. Bank of Japan already ended QE. Bank of Canada shed 15% of its assets. Bank of England & Reserve Bank of Australia are tapering. Reserve Bank of New Zealand quit QE cold turkey. Riksbank will end QE this year. What’s taking the Fed so long?

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The ECB has increased the assets on its balance sheet by a monstrous €154 billion ($181 billion) per month so far this year via an alphabet soup of programs, blowing by even the crazed money-printers at the Fed with their average rate of $123 billion a month. While there appears to be consensus at the Fed that “tapering” its asset purchases will begin this year and will be completed in the first half next year, with assets then remaining level, the ECB announced today that it will start tapering its asset purchases now.

And thereby it is way behind the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Reserve Bank of Australia. But ahead of the Fed.

Following in the footsteps of the Bank of England, which had denied in May that its tapering was tapering, and in the footsteps of the Bank of Canada, which had denied last October that its tapering was tapering – though it has since then cut QE to nearly nothing and shed 15% of its assets – ECB President Christine Lagarde also denied at the press conference today that tapering was tapering, and stressed that tapering was instead a “recalibration” of QE.

Markets eagerly swallow these taper denials hook, line, and sinker. Anything but tapering.

In the press release, the ECB said that the pace of net asset purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) would be “moderately lower.” PEPP is the biggie in the alphabet soup of programs, running at about €80 billion ($95 billion) per month recently.

The ECB didn’t specify by how much it would reduce its purchases under PEPP, but said that it would “purchase flexibly according to market conditions.”

The asset purchases under PEPP will continue in diminished form “at least” until March 2022. After that, the balance would be level “at least” until the end of 2023, before the “roll-off” of those bonds might begin. The roll-off means that bonds mature and roll off the balance sheet when they’re redeemed and would not be replaced with new purchases. This has the effect of reducing the bond portfolio over time as bonds mature.

The other programs would go on as before.

The Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO III) will continue. These are loans to Eurozone banks, now with a balance of €2.2 trillion.

The Asset Purchase Program (APP), the now relatively small classic QE program that existed before the pandemic and includes sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, covered bonds, and asset-backed securities, would continue at a monthly rate of €20 billion and would “end shortly before” the ECB starts raising its interest rates.

This is in line with the consensus among central banks, confirmed by the Fed, that QE needs to end before interest rates can be hiked, on the rationale that QE pushes down long-term rates, while raising policy rates pushes up short-term rates, which would wreak havoc on the yield curve.

As of this week, total assets on the ECB’s balance sheet rose to €8.2 trillion ($9.7 trillion), about $1.4 trillion more monstrous than the Fed’s monstrous holdings. The four largest groups of assets on the ECB’s balance sheet are:

• €4.6 trillion in bonds (mostly sovereign bonds, but also corporate bonds, covered bonds, and asset backed securities).
• €2.2 trillion in loans to banks under TLTRO III
• €515 billion in gold and gold receivables
• €477 billion in foreign currency assets

Shrinking its balance sheet is not new for the ECB. It has reduced its assets by one-third over a two-year period, cutting them from €3.1 trillion in late 2012 to €2.0 trillion in late 2014.

In early 2015, it kicked off a massive QE program that ended in late 2018. From then until March 2020, assets remained flat.

Starting in March 2020, the ECB went hog-wild. And now the ECB is trying to figure out how to get out of this without blowing up the Eurozone:

Lagarde said that the decision to taper – oops, I mean, to recalibrate – the asset purchases was unanimous.

Timidly following in the footsteps of:

The Bank of Japan cut its asset purchase to near-zero, without any hoopla, thereby not only ending the pandemic QE binge but also the third leg of the economic religion of Abenomics – namely massive money printing. The current rate of asset purchases is minuscule and the lowest since before Abenomics in 2012:

The Bank of Canada started tapering its purchases of Government of Canada bonds last October, ended its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, and shed its repos and Canada Treasury bills, with the effect of cutting is total assets by 15% since the peak in March:

The Bank of England announced its decision to taper its asset purchases in May, and has since cut its weekly bond purchases, on net, from about £4 billion a week to close to £2 billion a week through the summer:

Reserve Bank of New Zealand ended its asset purchases cold turkey in May without tapering to pull the plug on the #1 housing bubble in the world:

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced in July that it would start tapering its asset purchases from A$5 billion a week to A$4 billion a week. Total assets on its balance sheet declined last week for the first time all year:

The Riksbank of Sweden confirmed that it is going to end QE entirely by late 2021.

And what is taking the Fed so long? No one knows. Amid the most monstrously overstimulated economy and markets ever, the Fed is still printing $120 billion a month, though there appears to a consensus to not fall much further behind the curve than it already is and start tapering its asset purchases this year.

Those charts are off the scale crazy.

You cant tell me there is not more to this whole covid thing.  IMHO it was either used as a great excuse to line the bankers/politicians pockets and/or there was a banking/financial collapse at the end of 2019 and they are keeping very quiet about it.  

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

India v Pakistan v China is going to play out in someway.Its one of the biggest reasons natural gas comes up as one of the best assets to own.These countries will all try to outrun the other.India is miles behind China of course,but in macro it doesnt matter where you start,its the direction that matters.BP is rolling out fuel stations across India for instance,though to the green lobby they are called "convenience stores" 

Dunno if you've seen this before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity_in_India

Water scarcity in India is an ongoing water crisis that affects nearly 1 million people each year.

I came across the issue when working in Indian once, concerns about increasing population and access to usable water

Its a catastrophe in the making.

[dnb24]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Dunno if you've seen this before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity_in_India

Water scarcity in India is an ongoing water crisis that affects nearly 1 million people each year.

I came across the issue when working in Indian once, concerns about increasing population and access to usable water

Its a catastrophe in the making.

If you think that’s bad- look at Chinese potable water- they are in serious trouble- in China it’s a catastrophe now- not in the making.

Kashmir holds a lot of keys- as @Cattle Prodsays- Turkmenistan/Uzbek gas pipeline is one, but it’s also right in the Himalayas- and source of clean water. 
 

China have serious internal problems- more than india- not enough food, not enough water, what water they have is polluted and can’t be used for growing. They have a population that is 60% urbanised, and now significantly ageing.

The actions of the maoists show they understand the problem- and they’ll shut up shop to the west, produce a command economy to try and hold onto power- and screw the millions who die- how this plays out macro wise- I don’t know. 

[sancho panza]

I've been promising myself a re examination of my BK checklist from Sept 20 2020.This is why I'm interested in more Dollar weakness as it will effectively line up with historical precedent

My assessment in red besides item

Second line additions were added March 18 2021

Sept 20 2020

1) oil price rise to $80+-nearly touched $76 Brent monthlies.

2) copper> $3.60-tick

3) GSR <45-got to 60 so far

4)DXY <85-got to 90 thus far

5) cable >$1.65-got to $1.41 so nowhere near

6) UST 10 year >2%-got to $1.74

Mar 18

To which I might add

EUR/USD>1.45(got to $1.23),copper/gold ratio>0.0002(got to 0.00016 so nearly a touch),UST 10yr-2yr yd >1.5(tick hit 1.59 chart below)

 

[Harley]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Wont make any difference,massive demand for workers,way higher than furlough.People have taken the money,but pulled their retirement forward etc and many many others younger have tasted free money from Universal Credit and will do as little as they can.Again today iv had three job offers.In a day.Its nuts.I was chatting to the girl today who rang and she said they were losing people every day.They wanted top money if they had to even travel 45 minutes from home.They almost beg you.

Massive cycle turn underway.Huge liquidity is smashing headlong into structural changes.Every single extended chain that helped prices see deflation is now forcing inflation.The race is on for companies ,the ones who can shorten supply chains and pull more and more production close to base will survive it.Those who dont understand whats happening and are slow will be slaughtered.Road map told me to stick to de-complex assets,but now it really is with bells on.Government has created a monster and is lost,grabbing for tax that will just make things worse.

People wont work unless they get much more than welfare now,and welfare is higher than most jobs for anyone with kids.25% wage increases at the bottom end ,nothing will change that.

A friend is trying to recruit for her job.  On the second attempt.  Loads of applications (so it seems to me) but most of the good ones (those in good jobs) are not interested if the have to do 5 days a week in the office.  Presumably they do that now and want something better.  Two types of CEO atm.  Those who insist people come in the office and those talking about keeping staff and being better about things.  Some stories of employers changing their minds and telling staff they now have to come in more (e.g. from 2 days a month to pretty much 5 days a week).  A real battle it seems to me between the two.

[Harley]

39 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Are we on the verge of watching the next leg down in the dollar?If we are then that chimes with historical BK warning signs

I don't do much macro but looking at the charts for DXY, it looks like it has the chance of running up on the monthly!  DYOR but just call me the happy contrarian!

[jamtomorrow]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

A friend is trying to recruit for her job.  On the second attempt.  Loads of applications (so it seems to me) but most of the good ones (those in good jobs) are not interested if the have to do 5 days a week in the office.  Presumably they do that now and want something better.  Two types of CEO atm.  Those who insist people come in the office and those talking about keeping staff and being better about things.  Some stories of employers changing their minds and telling staff they now have to come in more (e.g. from 2 days a month to pretty much 5 days a week).  A real battle it seems to me between the two.

Yup - the sudden change in the balance of power between capital and labour, consumers and producers, is striking.

Might have to stock up on popcorn, before it gets expensive.

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

What's taking the Fed so long? Is it not that it is the only one of the major economies above doing fiscal stimulus, or handing out printed money to its people? As was pointed out the other day, Trump filled the Treasury account with Fed money early doors in the pandemic, and Biden has now handed most of it out. They are going to need significantly more QE to finance Bidens 'infrastructure' bill, which is mostly 'human infrastructure', i.e. handouts. If the Fed tapers, it means all those assistance programmes also taper. And as you allude to the reason that they can do this and the other countries can't is that they print the worlds reserve currency wich other countries need.

So other currencies should strengthen againt the dollar if they are tapering. You would think. The ECBs balance sheet is much higher as a % of GDP than the Feds, there is lots more room for them yet.

Can't crash things until most are on digital IDs?  Need them for rationing, taking assets, destroying value, playing god with money, etc.

[Bricormortis]

56 minutes ago, Hancock said:

No, but ive plenty of cash thats being inflated away in relation to the stock market at present.

Thing with these endless graphs and charts, is they're constantly predicting an impending doom.

lol that might be because of the impending doom.

Actually personally I take an interest in various indicators, XLU utilities ETF which is a large fund that takes institutional money to move it and is a safety play, also the  russell 2000 indicating how America views the prospects of Main St, and turns down first, American Transportation ETF XTN also, and I have recently become aware of the University of Michegan consumer sentiment index, which is currently dire.  Im not seeing major warning lights coming on just yet based on those I must admit but I dont feel good about where we are.

What indicators do others pay attention to ?

I do come across graphs that shock or inform me, so post them here occasionally for peoples consideration.