Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

As a general observation about the times we're in, and for scale:

Current market cap of BTC is less than 6% than that of gold.

Current gold market cap is circa 30% of the US stock market cap alone.

Now, YouTube is obviously very useful for disseminating alternative information to help people financially and provide different political views.

Max Keiser gets on average, say, 40k views with the occasional 300-400k on BTC.

The gold channels get up to 100k views.

Financial info from the likes of Di Martino Booth or Grant Williams get tens of thousands.

Videos of timelapse paintings or reinvigorating rusted chains get 24m views.

There will be no uprising. Just the next set of controls.

[Lightscribe]

36 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

I heard there are around 7500 different alt coins presently so BTC is 1 story  but a lot of ‘the kids’ are more interested in what the other crypto’s are upto.

Often the next big thing (currently Cardano, Polkadot, Theta etc) are backed by big players.

Putting small punts on some of the smaller cap coins can be fruitless or 100 baggers not dissimilar to buying penny stocks plus sorting the wheat from the chaff is a lot easier via YT research etc than it was when I first lost my shirt years ago on a scamcoin.

Worth gambling 0.5% of your net worth in to ensure you don’t miss out if you have time to do the research but you do need an easy come, easy go outlook.

First you really have to understand the crypto space. Lots of different cryptos with different aims and white papers. ERC-20, BEP-2 etc are all different token types. Yes 99% are shitcoins out there.

Defi exchanges and tokens (YFI etc) is the real danger that governments will look to nip in the bud. You can swap any token without the need for a central exchange with the likes of iDEX or Uniswap completely independently.

https://uniswap.org
 

Most shitcoin crypto is essentially a cash and grab to get more BTC. 

Just stick to the main volume cryptocurrencies if unfamiliar within crypto that will survive as long as BTC survives. BTC, ETH (framework), LINK (oracle, smart contracts). XRP (if it survives the SEC lawsuit) and the corresponding upcoming FLARE network in unison. ADA (Cardino) as you mention is another competing ecosystem.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/the-missing-link-between-blockchain-and-existing-systems/

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think I have experienced a 40 year cycle, I was 14 in 1979/80 and used to venture on dilapidated trains into Liverpool once a month by myself to trawl around the record shops of that once great musical city. The whole place was rapidly turning into a seedy shit tip of decayed buildings and shops the pinnacle of which was probe records.

Then it was regenerated following 'the garden festival' on the back of easy credit and falling interest rates while all around the outskirts large manufacturing businesses continued to close.

I suspect 40 years later we are on the cusp of dilapidation and dereliction again at 0% with nowhere to go and little domestic manufacturing.

A service economy with no real money to service it.

Edit: Never noticed but it said 'Enterprise House' on the step in paint

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/liverpool/hi/people_and_places/newsid_8917000/8917746.stm

Low to 0% IRs are great when you've got a young, growing population.

They are fucking cancer when you have an aging, old, shrinking population.

Doubly so, as the few young are on the hook to pay for the benefits promised to the old but not paid for.

 

 

[kibuc]

41 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Why is BTC better than the other 8000+ coins?

Genuine question. I don't know.

For starters, BTC seems to be the only one you recognize  Brand strength, adoption rate, first-mover advantage or whatever else you want to call it, crypto = bitcoin for a huge part of the general public. Even among the crypto crowd there's a recognition of BTC and alt coins - meaning anything other than BTC. I don't know if it's technically the most sound, there are other chains that seem to be more advanced, but BTC is the granddaddy of them all which it's something that shouldn't be discounted.

[Barnsey]

 

[jamtomorrow]

20 minutes ago, kibuc said:

For starters, BTC seems to be the only one you recognize  Brand strength, adoption rate, first-mover advantage or whatever else you want to call it, crypto = bitcoin for a huge part of the general public. Even among the crypto crowd there's a recognition of BTC and alt coins - meaning anything other than BTC. I don't know if it's technically the most sound, there are other chains that seem to be more advanced, but BTC is the granddaddy of them all which it's something that shouldn't be discounted.

I suppose geeks like me would say it has the biggest Metcalfe Effect of all the cryptos, which leads to a winner-takes-all dynamic. Which won't be at all surprising to anyone here familiar with power law distributions in nature, economics etc

23 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Low to 0% IRs are great for ...

This is 100% the only explanation needed for All the Mad Things we're seeing. It'll be very interesting to see how the maddest parts of the madness unravel when meaningful yield returns, but in the meantime the system keeps trying to divide by zero, producing the economic equivalent of a whole series of monkeys with four asses.

[AWW]

56 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Because in a SHTF scenario you can get on a plane or whatever and have ALL your BTC with you in a small file on your laptop, phone or even just several keywords saved in a large document (or your brain!) and then convert this to local fiat or pay for stuff in micro BTC the other end (probably single satoshis).

Also your total amount of BTC could be the equivalent of £100,000s or $1,000,000 etc and is ONLY available to YOU with the correct wallet or password so is very hard to confiscate if you know what you are doing unlike physical metals. BTC is also much more easily divisible than gold... for example a satoshi is currently the smallest unit of the bitcoin currency recorded on the block chain and is a one hundred millionth of a single bitcoin (0.00000001 BTC). If there's a run to Gold then silver will also rise and even 1oz of silver might be $200 or more which will make it hard to pay for smaller things.

At the end of the day I think everyone should have a broad mix of all these things which is why I'm on this thread - it doesn't have to be either or

I do have a small amount of BTC as insurance against it becoming de facto gold.

I've heard the SHTF scenario too. But I fail to see how you would spend BTC in a SHTF scenario. Civilisation needs to be operating near-normally in order for you to have access to the electricity, equipment and connectivity that is required to transact cryptocurrencies. Spending BTC isn't compatible with a SHTF scenario, in my view.

If there are bad people out there taking your gold from you, and BTC has taken on the role of gold, that means extracting your password. I'd much rather have an object that I can give away to satisfy said bad people, than something intangible like a password, because if it's not possible to verify that password right at the point that you give it to them, you can be sure that they'll visit some form of harm on you, to get your attention.

[Sugarlips]

7 minutes ago, AWW said:

I do have a small amount of BTC as insurance against it becoming de facto gold.

I've heard the SHTF scenario too. But I fail to see how you would spend BTC in a SHTF scenario. Civilisation needs to be operating near-normally in order for you to have access to the electricity, equipment and connectivity that is required to transact cryptocurrencies. Spending BTC isn't compatible with a SHTF scenario, in my view.

If there are bad people out there taking your gold from you, and BTC has taken on the role of gold, that means extracting your password. I'd much rather have an object that I can give away to satisfy said bad people, than something intangible like a password, because if it's not possible to verify that password right at the point that you give it to them, you can be sure that they'll visit some form of harm on you, to get your attention.

For those who don’t like passwords and other hassle, as others have observed it’s starting to get a lot easier to get crypto exposure via the stock market. Thread favorite Lyn Alden likes Square for example who bought $50m of BTC a few months back.

https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-expert-view/videos/lyn-aldens-2021-macro-outlook

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

This isn't meant as a slap-down, but to me this is beyond naive.

If those in control feared BTC it would be nailed down already. What they keep in the shadows by not talking about it is gold because that's the only true stake in the heart of the financial system. BTC is setting itself up for collosal failure the higher it goes. And it's confused. It was supposed to be a currency but it's too volatile. It was supposed to be a store of value but is too volatile. I would guess that most people who are on it's coat-tails are clueless about it and have bought it simply because it's going up in undeniably ridiculous and unsustainable increments.

The media are giving BTC the standard treatment of marginalising it whilst at the same time encouraging it to get millions in on it before the clamp-down. Either way it's getting huge exposure that it wouldn't get if it was going to be an actual problem. The MSM know exactly what they're doing. IMO $millions will be lost and never recover, even when it's still only a marginal thing. 

There will be no uprising. The western population is no Myanmar. We've got no collective real-world balls and the skill with which we are manipulated into action or inaction is unmatched. There will not be enough of the population to effect a public coup.

But I wish you genuine good luck in getting out with more fiat that you started with.

I too think bitcoin will have a colossal crash. Its quite something Musk giving bitcoin such a push. The two things that define the current asset bubble are Tesla and Bitcoin. When they implode the carnage will be massive.

[JMD]

12 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

And still the FT and the MSM business news fail to understand why BTC has exploded like it has.

FT article comments today hashing out the same old 2010 fud. Used for drugs/criminality/dark web/electric mining cost/useless with no electricity /not an asset/investment/ponzi/ millennials -gen-z will lose everything etc.

They don’t care and that’s what the MSM doesn’t get just like with GME. They view it as it may be 1 and 0’s but so is digitally created QE money which is devaluing to nothingness. At least you can’t make more BTC.

The younger generation know the game is rigged. They don’t want to work until death funding pensions in traditional financial models for the rest of their lives, knowing they’ll never see it themselves.

They see crypto and defi as they’re only hope of turning the system. Everyone knows that it could/will be regulated to death, but the genie is out the bottle. Governments go digital, use their own crypto and ban BTC now (with the big institutions moving into it) then they show their true colours of fearing it and they’ll be an uprising on their hands.

I think those risks you mention do exist. But it was the prospect of institutional money that eventually persuaded me into looking seriously into buying BTC. Will Elon Musk be a game changer here?                                   I bought late last year - belatedly so (though I've heard it said that 'everyone buys BTC at the price they deserve'; I'm no expert but think that guide-line applied to me). Over time the technical arguments (fintech, scarce asset, network affects, etc) for BTC did begin to make more sense to me.                                                               However to be honest, it was the BTC price action, which happens during each halving cycle (at least so far it has!) - but that its many detractors point to as proof of BTC being merely 'just a bubble' - was actually what tipped me into finally buying. I figured why not buy, wait for expected(?) price rise, then sell original stake in order to get a 'free ride'? Ok nothing is guaranteed, but a main thesis of the thread is one of monetary collapse/reform - so I thought why not at least try to obtain a small risk-free piece of that future monetary 'pie'?    ...of course I could be ordering from the wrong menu or maybe evan sitting in the wrong restaurant, but holding some BTC does certainly make the future, whatever ultimately unfolds, somehow more appetising(bitter or sweet?, we shall see)!!!

[Barnsey]

34 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I too think bitcoin will have a colossal crash. Its quite something Musk giving bitcoin such a push. The two things that define the current asset bubble are Tesla and Bitcoin. When they implode the carnage will be massive.

Kiss of death...

 

[Talking Monkey]

Just now, Barnsey said:

Kiss of death...

 

Kin hell that's some strong language but it's spot on what he says. It's utterly ridiculous companies like tesla doing equity raises then loading up on bitcoin. 

I have to say 'shit faced fool' is a high quality cuss, I didn't know Roubini had it in him. That's the beauty of this thread, you learn something new each day. 

[Noallegiance]

Meanwhile back a little more toward the tangible: Intrepid Potash Inc might be my new favourite stock! Up 15% yesterday and confidently busting $30 from a low of $7 a year ago.

[Talking Monkey]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Meanwhile back a little more toward the tangible: Intrepid Potash Inc might be my new favourite stock! Up 15% yesterday and confidently busting $30 from a low of $7 a year ago.

I wish I'd done more of that bad boy, still nice to see it motoring along. 

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I wish I'd done more of that bad boy, still nice to see it motoring along. 

As it has no yield it's one I'm tempted to trim and buy back after a fall and spread the profits around divi-payers.

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

If Bitcoin goes down massively in a BK event, and lots of Gen Z lose their hard-earned.  It'll be a lot easier to regulate.  The big institutions might well get the nod about the regulation first, and their selling will ensure the collapse.   The media will oblige with wall-to-wall coverage of Brandons and Ashleys who spent their house deposit and ran up 5 grand on credit cards buying half a bitcoin, now worth only a few hundred, and maybe worthless tomorrow.  If only they'd stuck with the safety and security of sterling... ah, the young have been so foolish, and now we must protect them from themselves.

Yes i think it is a big risk not knowing who actually owns the BTC. So I agree that if the large BTC holders, the institutions etc - if they indeed do represent the mass of all ownership - and if they were warned that regulations were on the way, they might arguably move quickly to sell and therefore cause further mass sell offs/crash.                                                                                                                                                        However the flip side of this argument is why are institutions holding BTC in the first place? If it's for insurance/monetary collapse hedge, 'government rumours' etc would only strengthen their reasons to continue holding. After all BTC will typically only be approx. 1% of their fund. Also, I can't see how an effective global joined up regulation by all governments, and it would have to include Russia for example, could be implemented? 

[planit]

I thought I would post this because it points out the difference between companies that can increase prices and ones that can't

 

His response is very negative and doesn't even seem to view raising prices to match input increases an option. (or even one he has thought of LOL)

 

[feed]

8 minutes ago, planit said:

I thought I would post this because it points out the difference between companies that can increase prices and ones that can't

 

His response is very negative and doesn't even seem to view raising prices to match input increases an option. (or even one he has thought of LOL)

 

Just before Christmas, for an ebay casual, shipping card was impossible to find at anything below gouging prices.
I ended up having to use my storage boxes for the shipping card.  It’s eased up a little now.  But if you need packing materials, it’s plan 3 months ahead now, rather than just one.
 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

See here

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/09/britain-secures-trade-partnership-india-investment-will-create/

As iv said way back,India and China will continue to face off and the west will be fronting up India.Britain has a fantastic chance here due to obvious reasons.

I agree deals like this will be great for the UK. It's just a shame the government cant come out and be honest about its (true?) vision for a post-Brexit britain. I think the Boris 'Singapore on Thames' idea is what they are going for, eg free ports and special enterprise zones are now being spoken about. But the idea would be too easily attacked by opposition parties as a 'race to the bottom', the irony in that thinking is that globalisation itself has pretty much achieved that status for nations across the world already.

[planit]

3 minutes ago, feed said:

Just before Christmas, for an ebay casual, shipping card was impossible to find at anything below gouging prices.
I ended up having to use my storage boxes for the shipping card.  It’s eased up a little now.  But if you need packing materials, it’s plan 3 months ahead now, rather than just one.
 

Exactly, which should mean packaging companies are making huge amounts of money at the moment. Demand has outstripped supply so prices have risen, should be the conditions for a packaging company to make lots of money.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

I do have a small amount of BTC as insurance against it becoming de facto gold.

I've heard the SHTF scenario too. But I fail to see how you would spend BTC in a SHTF scenario. Civilisation needs to be operating near-normally in order for you to have access to the electricity, equipment and connectivity that is required to transact cryptocurrencies. Spending BTC isn't compatible with a SHTF scenario, in my view.

If there are bad people out there taking your gold from you, and BTC has taken on the role of gold, that means extracting your password. I'd much rather have an object that I can give away to satisfy said bad people, than something intangible like a password, because if it's not possible to verify that password right at the point that you give it to them, you can be sure that they'll visit some form of harm on you, to get your attention.

Hence invest in the tangible (just in case for SHTF) and non-tangible (just in case brown pants near miss instead).

I’ve got a plenty of tangible UCS retired lego box sets and some Victorian sterling silver candlesticks for SHTF persuasion bribes to jump ahead of the queue. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I too think bitcoin will have a colossal crash. Its quite something Musk giving bitcoin such a push. The two things that define the current asset bubble are Tesla and Bitcoin. When they implode the carnage will be massive.

And they are VERY tightly correlated, which I find hilarious 

[Heart's Ease]

Some numbers - or 'numbers' -from the US. 

 

[feed]

15 minutes ago, planit said:

Exactly, which should mean packaging companies are making huge amounts of money at the moment. Demand has outstripped supply so prices have risen, should be the conditions for a packaging company to make lots of money.

Indeed. 

 

[planit]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And they are VERY tightly correlated, which I find hilarious 

Even more so now LOL