Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The reason the likes of him and Hugh Hendry etc fuck up, I think, is because they haven't accepted the new paradigm, that this really has been different. 

 

What goes up still has to come down, but as we've now learned, you can keep those plates spinning a hell of a lot longer than anyone thought possible. 

 

Remember on TOS when everyone used to mockingly say "hey, maybe it's different this time!"? 

 

Turns out it was. 

 

And I thought the same so I'm not being captain hindsight. 

agree, and everyone saying "The property market is about to crash, they can keep it going much longer"...and guess what...ten years (plus) later we all know they could!

[MrXxxx]

43 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

one thing march showed, you are gonna have to be positioned ahead of time if you expect a huge drop, doing it during doesnt really cut it.

Yep, if you aren't quick enough you are better 'waiting it out'

[Bricks & Mortar]

Dave on bonds.

 

 

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

What goes up still has to come down, but as we've now learned, you can keep those plates spinning a hell of a lot longer than anyone thought possible.

This is part of the reason the whole shitshow depresses me. I think about this crap more than is healthy, when I ought to be enjoying my three score and ten.

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

one thing march showed, you are gonna have to be positioned ahead of time if you expect a huge drop, doing it during doesnt really cut it.

That's why I want to be in a position where I can hold through a BK and still be able to sleep soundly.

Gor blimey, is it too much to ask?!

[Barnsey]

Things really are different this time!

But in the short term, beware!

 

[harp]

Whitehaven coal mine scrapped??
 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, harp said:

Whitehaven coal mine scrapped??
 

 

This country is so fucked 

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Things really are different this time!

When I read that the Bullshitometer went FSD.

Breaking out of a rut with massive money printing, house prices in rude health, savings in 'good shape' and a booming stock market.

Tesla's for everyone in our glorious carbon-free economy courtesy of the dollar flow to the CCP.

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

DB, what are your thoughts on bonds? Still unchanged? 

I think they should have one last surge higher at some point,but it depends if/when a BK hits and how much more is printed.There is huge liquidity in the system,and governments are whats bust,not companies mostly.The main thing it to avoid anything on sky high multiples.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Why?...I think I know why you are saying this but I would be interested to know your perspective.

Bank bail-ins.  All the necessary plumbing as been put in place for this since this was agreed internationally in 2016 or so.  To be really paranoic, maybe we could just get IOUs in part or in full or whatever for the "protected" cash.

PS: But then printed money is also just a dodgy IOU!

[Bricormortis]

Harley you are quite right re the "plumbing" being in place, and the rules were changed  so that we dont own money that we deposit in a bank, we are classed as " general creditors " of said bank..... how does that sit with the FCA 85k "guarantee" though, I would like to think the govt  just print everyones saving balance back if it dissapears ?

[ThoughtCriminal]

17 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Harley you are quite right re the "plumbing" being in place, and the rules were changed  so that we dont own money that we deposit in a bank, we are classed as " general creditors " of said bank..... how does that sit with the FCA 85k "guarantee" though, I would like to think the govt  just print everyones saving balance back if it dissapears ?

I know I had some fun poked at me for having over 50k in the house, but are we now at the point where faith in the FCA guarantee is like belief in the tooth fairy? 

 

I feel a lot less worried about my money in here than at the mercy of government. 

 

Of course my money is at the mercy of government through inflation, but that's another story......... 

[Bricormortis]

Make sure mice cant get at it.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Bank bail-ins.  All the necessary plumbing as been put in place for this since this was agreed internationally in 2016 or so.  To be really paranoic, maybe we could just get IOUs in part or in full or whatever for the "protected" cash.

PS: But then printed money is also just a dodgy IOU!

As I thought....do you think they would clobber all or just those above a certain limit I.e FSCS?

[dgul]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Bank bail-ins.  All the necessary plumbing as been put in place for this since this was agreed internationally in 2016 or so.  To be really paranoic, maybe we could just get IOUs in part or in full or whatever for the "protected" cash.

PS: But then printed money is also just a dodgy IOU!

Everything is set up for the banks, because it was such a disaster in 2008.

But this time I'd have thought that the failures will be in governments.  Nothing has been set up for this eventuality.

I'd imagine the consequences will be people losing money through taxation, cuts in welfare (because of) and inflation (because of the money printing).  I'd also imagine that pension funds will be ravaged to pay for it (increases in 'compulsory' bond holdings).

[AWW]

42 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

As I thought....do you think they would clobber all or just those above a certain limit I.e FSCS?

If Cyprus is the model, no sum was safe. They took 7% of anything under 100k, despite it supposedly being safe, and 10% of anything above.

[JREWING]

18 minutes ago, AWW said:

If Cyprus is the model, no sum was safe. They took 7% of anything under 100k, despite it supposedly being safe, and 10% of anything above.

Out of interest. Just an observation.

Why hold cash in a bank unless you require it during the coming months.

Just hold oil and miners shares. I understand the capital fluctuation values. But surely the yields over a 36 month window more than compensates.

RDSB & BP ~ 6%. 

Centamin ~ 7.5% 

Holding anything yielding less than 4% is making your poorer.

[AWW]

5 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Why hold cash in a bank unless you require it during the coming months.

I've started to wonder why hold anything other than your next 3 months of expenses as cash in a bank.

And I've worked for banks for the last 15 years.

[leonardratso]

surely theyll just freeze and take any assets they can, including shares and bonds?

[AWW]

There's a huge leap from a bank bail-in to general confiscation of assets.

[Democorruptcy]

19 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Out of interest. Just an observation.

Why hold cash in a bank unless you require it during the coming months.

Just hold oil and miners shares. I understand the capital fluctuation values. But surely the yields over a 36 month window more than compensates.

RDSB & BP ~ 6%. 

Centamin ~ 7.5% 

Holding anything yielding less than 4% is making your poorer.

I got excited for four letters.

[wherebee]

15 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

surely theyll just freeze and take any assets they can, including shares and bonds?

bail ins of cash tend not to affect the 1% that much.  most of their assets are tied up in instruments and assets in a non cash form.  

therefore, a cash balance bail in in always preferred to the other options.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, wherebee said:

bail ins of cash tend not to affect the 1% that much.  most of their assets are tied up in instruments and assets in a non cash form.  

therefore, a cash balance bail in in always preferred to the other options.

Of course, they see cash as their property.  They're just good enough to let you use it 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

Holding anything yielding less than 4% is making your poorer.

Well said in that bail-ins are a bit of an extreme event but having your cash gradually eroded is not.  Plus, as also said, plenty of instruments to hold your money other than cash such as short term bonds.  Alas, I do hold cash in a SIPP, etc and have done for too long.  More fool me.  I have been moving to a more fully balanced portfolio but that 25% bond holding is hard to action.  I need more faith, and maybe doing so now, for a last bond hurrah, may mean I better dodge a bullet, or more likely only get a flesh wound rather than an inscription!  Risks of variable likelihood and proportionate responses for me.

[Barnsey]

Quite the stat...