Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

This isn't meant as a slap-down, but to me this is beyond naive.

If those in control feared BTC it would be nailed down already. What they keep in the shadows by not talking about it is gold because that's the only true stake in the heart of the financial system. BTC is setting itself up for collosal failure the higher it goes. And it's confused. It was supposed to be a currency but it's too volatile. It was supposed to be a store of value but is too volatile. I would guess that most people who are on it's coat-tails are clueless about it and have bought it simply because it's going up in undeniably ridiculous and unsustainable increments.

The media are giving BTC the standard treatment of marginalising it whilst at the same time encouraging it to get millions in on it before the clamp-down. Either way it's getting huge exposure that it wouldn't get if it was going to be an actual problem. The MSM know exactly what they're doing. IMO $millions will be lost and never recover, even when it's still only a marginal thing. 

There will be no uprising. The western population is no Myanmar. We've got no collective real-world balls and the skill with which we are manipulated into action or inaction is unmatched. There will not be enough of the population to effect a public coup.

But I wish you genuine good luck in getting out with more fiat that you started with.

I too think bitcoin will have a colossal crash. Its quite something Musk giving bitcoin such a push. The two things that define the current asset bubble are Tesla and Bitcoin. When they implode the carnage will be massive.

[JMD]

12 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

And still the FT and the MSM business news fail to understand why BTC has exploded like it has.

FT article comments today hashing out the same old 2010 fud. Used for drugs/criminality/dark web/electric mining cost/useless with no electricity /not an asset/investment/ponzi/ millennials -gen-z will lose everything etc.

They don’t care and that’s what the MSM doesn’t get just like with GME. They view it as it may be 1 and 0’s but so is digitally created QE money which is devaluing to nothingness. At least you can’t make more BTC.

The younger generation know the game is rigged. They don’t want to work until death funding pensions in traditional financial models for the rest of their lives, knowing they’ll never see it themselves.

They see crypto and defi as they’re only hope of turning the system. Everyone knows that it could/will be regulated to death, but the genie is out the bottle. Governments go digital, use their own crypto and ban BTC now (with the big institutions moving into it) then they show their true colours of fearing it and they’ll be an uprising on their hands.

I think those risks you mention do exist. But it was the prospect of institutional money that eventually persuaded me into looking seriously into buying BTC. Will Elon Musk be a game changer here?                                   I bought late last year - belatedly so (though I've heard it said that 'everyone buys BTC at the price they deserve'; I'm no expert but think that guide-line applied to me). Over time the technical arguments (fintech, scarce asset, network affects, etc) for BTC did begin to make more sense to me.                                                               However to be honest, it was the BTC price action, which happens during each halving cycle (at least so far it has!) - but that its many detractors point to as proof of BTC being merely 'just a bubble' - was actually what tipped me into finally buying. I figured why not buy, wait for expected(?) price rise, then sell original stake in order to get a 'free ride'? Ok nothing is guaranteed, but a main thesis of the thread is one of monetary collapse/reform - so I thought why not at least try to obtain a small risk-free piece of that future monetary 'pie'?    ...of course I could be ordering from the wrong menu or maybe evan sitting in the wrong restaurant, but holding some BTC does certainly make the future, whatever ultimately unfolds, somehow more appetising(bitter or sweet?, we shall see)!!!

[Barnsey]

34 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I too think bitcoin will have a colossal crash. Its quite something Musk giving bitcoin such a push. The two things that define the current asset bubble are Tesla and Bitcoin. When they implode the carnage will be massive.

Kiss of death...

 

[Talking Monkey]

Just now, Barnsey said:

Kiss of death...

 

Kin hell that's some strong language but it's spot on what he says. It's utterly ridiculous companies like tesla doing equity raises then loading up on bitcoin. 

I have to say 'shit faced fool' is a high quality cuss, I didn't know Roubini had it in him. That's the beauty of this thread, you learn something new each day. 

[Noallegiance]

Meanwhile back a little more toward the tangible: Intrepid Potash Inc might be my new favourite stock! Up 15% yesterday and confidently busting $30 from a low of $7 a year ago.

[Talking Monkey]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Meanwhile back a little more toward the tangible: Intrepid Potash Inc might be my new favourite stock! Up 15% yesterday and confidently busting $30 from a low of $7 a year ago.

I wish I'd done more of that bad boy, still nice to see it motoring along. 

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I wish I'd done more of that bad boy, still nice to see it motoring along. 

As it has no yield it's one I'm tempted to trim and buy back after a fall and spread the profits around divi-payers.

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

If Bitcoin goes down massively in a BK event, and lots of Gen Z lose their hard-earned.  It'll be a lot easier to regulate.  The big institutions might well get the nod about the regulation first, and their selling will ensure the collapse.   The media will oblige with wall-to-wall coverage of Brandons and Ashleys who spent their house deposit and ran up 5 grand on credit cards buying half a bitcoin, now worth only a few hundred, and maybe worthless tomorrow.  If only they'd stuck with the safety and security of sterling... ah, the young have been so foolish, and now we must protect them from themselves.

Yes i think it is a big risk not knowing who actually owns the BTC. So I agree that if the large BTC holders, the institutions etc - if they indeed do represent the mass of all ownership - and if they were warned that regulations were on the way, they might arguably move quickly to sell and therefore cause further mass sell offs/crash.                                                                                                                                                        However the flip side of this argument is why are institutions holding BTC in the first place? If it's for insurance/monetary collapse hedge, 'government rumours' etc would only strengthen their reasons to continue holding. After all BTC will typically only be approx. 1% of their fund. Also, I can't see how an effective global joined up regulation by all governments, and it would have to include Russia for example, could be implemented? 

[planit]

I thought I would post this because it points out the difference between companies that can increase prices and ones that can't

 

His response is very negative and doesn't even seem to view raising prices to match input increases an option. (or even one he has thought of LOL)

 

[feed]

8 minutes ago, planit said:

I thought I would post this because it points out the difference between companies that can increase prices and ones that can't

 

His response is very negative and doesn't even seem to view raising prices to match input increases an option. (or even one he has thought of LOL)

 

Just before Christmas, for an ebay casual, shipping card was impossible to find at anything below gouging prices.
I ended up having to use my storage boxes for the shipping card.  It’s eased up a little now.  But if you need packing materials, it’s plan 3 months ahead now, rather than just one.
 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

See here

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/09/britain-secures-trade-partnership-india-investment-will-create/

As iv said way back,India and China will continue to face off and the west will be fronting up India.Britain has a fantastic chance here due to obvious reasons.

I agree deals like this will be great for the UK. It's just a shame the government cant come out and be honest about its (true?) vision for a post-Brexit britain. I think the Boris 'Singapore on Thames' idea is what they are going for, eg free ports and special enterprise zones are now being spoken about. But the idea would be too easily attacked by opposition parties as a 'race to the bottom', the irony in that thinking is that globalisation itself has pretty much achieved that status for nations across the world already.

[planit]

3 minutes ago, feed said:

Just before Christmas, for an ebay casual, shipping card was impossible to find at anything below gouging prices.
I ended up having to use my storage boxes for the shipping card.  It’s eased up a little now.  But if you need packing materials, it’s plan 3 months ahead now, rather than just one.
 

Exactly, which should mean packaging companies are making huge amounts of money at the moment. Demand has outstripped supply so prices have risen, should be the conditions for a packaging company to make lots of money.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

I do have a small amount of BTC as insurance against it becoming de facto gold.

I've heard the SHTF scenario too. But I fail to see how you would spend BTC in a SHTF scenario. Civilisation needs to be operating near-normally in order for you to have access to the electricity, equipment and connectivity that is required to transact cryptocurrencies. Spending BTC isn't compatible with a SHTF scenario, in my view.

If there are bad people out there taking your gold from you, and BTC has taken on the role of gold, that means extracting your password. I'd much rather have an object that I can give away to satisfy said bad people, than something intangible like a password, because if it's not possible to verify that password right at the point that you give it to them, you can be sure that they'll visit some form of harm on you, to get your attention.

Hence invest in the tangible (just in case for SHTF) and non-tangible (just in case brown pants near miss instead).

I’ve got a plenty of tangible UCS retired lego box sets and some Victorian sterling silver candlesticks for SHTF persuasion bribes to jump ahead of the queue. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I too think bitcoin will have a colossal crash. Its quite something Musk giving bitcoin such a push. The two things that define the current asset bubble are Tesla and Bitcoin. When they implode the carnage will be massive.

And they are VERY tightly correlated, which I find hilarious 

[Heart's Ease]

Some numbers - or 'numbers' -from the US. 

 

[feed]

15 minutes ago, planit said:

Exactly, which should mean packaging companies are making huge amounts of money at the moment. Demand has outstripped supply so prices have risen, should be the conditions for a packaging company to make lots of money.

Indeed. 

 

[planit]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And they are VERY tightly correlated, which I find hilarious 

Even more so now LOL

[geordie_lurch]

For those still looking at getting some cash into property somewhere Barclays have just reduced their 7 year fixed rate mortgage from 1.62% to 1.49% + £999 fees for new customers or £749 fees for existing customers

I am in the final stages of applying for their 10 year fix at 1.99% but I'm looking to overpay up to the 10% allowed per year with these but might actually swap my application to this one

 

 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

For those still looking at getting some cash into property somewhere Barclays have just reduced their 7 year fixed rate mortgage from 1.62% to 1.49% + £999 fees for new customers or £749 fees for existing customers

I am in the final stages of applying for their 10 year fix at 1.99% but I'm looking to overpay up to the 10% allowed per year with these but might actually swap my application to this one

 

 

My mam and dad are looking to move back to Newcastle, prices there have gone through the roof in the last 12/18 months.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB when you say labor is going to get more of the pie is that from a UK or global perspective. With the headwind of tech and automation I do wonder is that a sustained increase or just a blip over the next say 3 to 5 years then the downward pressure is exerted as automation gathers pace.

It's a good question you ask. But would you agree with me that there is some cognitive dissonance going on here? What I mean is that talking about labour markets and job automation in the same sentence is kinda contradictory. For me, I've come to think that the great challenge is more about how do nations sustain social harmony by 'sharing out' future jobs, whilst keeping the populace as a whole entertained/compliant. At same time governments must raise enough tax from company profits to pay for adequate social programmes.                                                                                                                                                                        Warning, personal rant to follow!!...        To achieve these things unfortunately I think it would  require more government control, eg capital controls, no open borders for job tourists, effective strong company (Amazon?) taxation... But I think last year should give the most simple among us the '2020 vision' (is this the cosmos playing sarcastic jokes!?) a very stark warning of what may lie ahead. Last year the government played fast and loose with facts (plan-demic?) and our freedoms (politicising the police), while the MSM and the Law did nothing but dance to their tune. Yesterday it was announced, by use of secondary legislation so no debate needed, that entrants to this country not self-isolating would get max. 10 year prison sentence - surely a scary indication of where we are heading... 'cruel and unusual punishment' methinks mlord!!   (or am I just overthinking this?)

[Don Coglione]

16 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

For those still looking at getting some cash into property somewhere Barclays have just reduced their 7 year fixed rate mortgage from 1.62% to 1.49% + £999 fees for new customers or £749 fees for existing customers

I am in the final stages of applying for their 10 year fix at 1.99% but I'm looking to overpay up to the 10% allowed per year with these but might actually swap my application to this one

 

 

Natwest has dropped its 5 year fix to 1.37% with a £995 fee, this before I try to play the Premier customer card to see whether that fee can be negotiated. That, my friends, is free money.

Should be exchanging contracts early next week; although a cash purchase, the plan, once settled in, is to take a 50% mortgage and plough the cash into the markets (hopefully timing any dip), even if only for divvies.

I will post on @Sasquatch's thread when the deed is done.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I do think everybody on this board gets this and have agreed with the thesis from the start back when this thread was created in the HPC days.

Yes we’ve been in a disinflation since 1980 for 40 years but I think the actual economic devastation is more akin the Great Depression, so potentially a 100 year cycle.

Im sure back then having come from the First World War, spanish flu, moving away from gold/silver standard (in our currency) they thought too how could the economy survive?

But it is difficult to totally discount that the global economic system is so intertwined in modern day society, global economic impact so big, many countries printing to infinity that there is no way out other than a financial reset. So indeed it may not be a 40 or 100 year cycle, but a much longer cycle transition from the end of an Anglo world power to a a global one.

 

Yes the economic shift from West to East is a new phenomena, never mind the risk of the Thucydides Trap?

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly, an inflection point, every card played, family silver sold off, no tricks left in the hat, no room for manoeuvre. BoE considering negative rates in the face of bubbling inflation flashes red warning signs.

The younger ones I work with, trade on Robin Hood and crypto, with the aim of ‘making it’ getting past a million. I simply say, we’ll all ‘make it’ one day but the real question is what will £1m actually buy?

In future, and If their lucky, a million pound might just buy them half a bit coin!!!!   I joke of course, else I'd break out crying at the craziness all around.

[Hancock]

19 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes the economic shift from West to East is a new phenomena, never mind the risk of the Thucydides Trap?

Not sure what the economic shift has to do with British govts of all colour pricing out its natives from buying a house.

Thats just spiteful and not Chinas fault imho.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

This isn't meant as a slap-down, but to me this is beyond naive.

If those in control feared BTC it would be nailed down already. What they keep in the shadows by not talking about it is gold because that's the only true stake in the heart of the financial system. BTC is setting itself up for collosal failure the higher it goes. And it's confused. It was supposed to be a currency but it's too volatile. It was supposed to be a store of value but is too volatile. I would guess that most people who are on it's coat-tails are clueless about it and have bought it simply because it's going up in undeniably ridiculous and unsustainable increments.

The media are giving BTC the standard treatment of marginalising it whilst at the same time encouraging it to get millions in on it before the clamp-down. Either way it's getting huge exposure that it wouldn't get if it was going to be an actual problem. The MSM know exactly what they're doing. IMO $millions will be lost and never recover, even when it's still only a marginal thing. 

There will be no uprising. The western population is no Myanmar. We've got no collective real-world balls and the skill with which we are manipulated into action or inaction is unmatched. There will not be enough of the population to effect a public coup.

But I wish you genuine good luck in getting out with more fiat that you started with.

Not sure BTC was ever meant to be a currency, too few coins for that, even when split into Satoshi's. I thought it was meant to be more like a fundamental layer, like TCP/IP is to the internet, a building block that other coins can be generated from, it's actually all in the original design ie 'hard forks' (most of the other coins are of course completely pointless, but it is an immature market). The idea is to have other coins/apps running above providing currency/smart contract functionality, etc. Anyway I am no expert, just my ramblings.