Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s exactly it Harley. It’s what I’ve been trying to allude to on this thread for some time (probably not very clearly on my part) whilst trying not to derail it into a crypto thread. This is the catalyst that will enable the next stage.

I notice in the other thread you ask

‘So far the conversation has been very crypto centric which is reasonable but there must be more to the "to be" world in terms of other stores of value.’

The answer is yes, so much more than a store of value or currency. AI and the government blockchains will form the fabric of society from living, manufacturing, agriculture, transport as well as transactions. Hence the 4th industrial revolution.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution

Thanks so much.  There in black and white. 

Ok  I'm in:

"We have established a partnership with the World Economic Forum to shape the global governance of technological innovation".

Lots more like gene editing comments which maybe outs the currrnt vaccine approach into context.

I'll leave it there, using the other thread for more (hopefully get some decent talk going), but I wonder if this is the "real" macro discussion to be had, maybe even not just post BK as we look into the period to 2030 and beyond.  I fear covid has become an accelerant.

PS: As an aside I'm thinking debt jubilee tied to CBDC adoption.

[planit]

Shell To Put Energy Transition Plan To Shareholder Vote

The problem is here:

"Shell is also set to tie the bonuses for its top executive directors more closely to the group’s performance in reaching its net-zero goals, if shareholders approve the plan at the annual general meeting in May"

 

There can't have a situation where directors win bonuses by sabotaging the company profits. The oil companies are now counting Scope 3 emissions - they include those that aren’t produced at a company’s facilities and that customers produce when they burn fossil fuels. So the less oil they produce the lower the emissions.

There will be a small number of vocal activist investors plus all the woke fund managers (where it is not their money) voting this through. I am not sure if I know of another situation where directors are rewarded contrary to company performance.

 

Pretty shocking if this gets voted through, does anyone have any suggestions of companies where this might not happen?

[JimmyTheBruce]

13 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I do wonder with the oil stocks if the market senses to much being spent on the new 'green' initiatives by the likes of BP and Shell???

Got the below through yesterday regarding the Shell AGM.  I do hope it's all just marketing bullshit, but I'll be voting against it anyway.

BOARD REQUESTS SUPPORT FOR ENERGY SECTOR’S FIRST SHAREHOLDER ADVISORY VOTE ON AN ENERGY TRANSITION STRATEGY
Today also marks the publication of Shell’s Energy Transition Strategy, which has been published for submission to a shareholder advisory vote at the 2021 AGM. The document is published simultaneously with the Notice of Meeting and shall be deemed to be incorporated in, and form part of, the Notice of Meeting.

The publication of Shell’s Energy Transition Strategy follows detailed conversations with shareholders and describes Shell’s energy transition strategy as we work towards becoming a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, in step with society’s progress towards the goal of the UN Paris Agreement on climate change, including our emissions targets. The report aims to help investors and wider society gain a better understanding of how we are addressing the risks and opportunities of the energy transition.

We are the first energy company to submit our energy transition strategy to shareholders for an advisory vote and will be publishing an update every three years until 2050. Every year, starting in 2022, we will also seek an advisory vote on our progress towards our plans and targets. The vote is purely advisory and will not be binding on shareholders.

The Shell Energy Transition Strategy is available at www.shell.com/agm.

 

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, planit said:

The oil companies are now counting Scope 3 emissions - they include those that aren’t produced at a company’s facilities and that customers produce when they burn fossil fuels. So the less oil they produce the lower the emissions.

It's a theme.  I know of property leasing and management companies taking responsibility for leasee energy usage.  Presumably things will be written into contracts. 

[JimmyTheBruce]

13 minutes ago, planit said:

Shell To Put Energy Transition Plan To Shareholder Vote

The problem is here:

"Shell is also set to tie the bonuses for its top executive directors more closely to the group’s performance in reaching its net-zero goals, if shareholders approve the plan at the annual general meeting in May"

 

There can't have a situation where directors win bonuses by sabotaging the company profits. The oil companies are now counting Scope 3 emissions - they include those that aren’t produced at a company’s facilities and that customers produce when they burn fossil fuels. So the less oil they produce the lower the emissions.

There will be a small number of vocal activist investors plus all the woke fund managers (where it is not their money) voting this through. I am not sure if I know of another situation where directors are rewarded contrary to company performance.

 

Pretty shocking if this gets voted through, does anyone have any suggestions of companies where this might not happen?

Beat me to it planit!  Come on, let us newbies get a scoop will you 😉

[planit]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's a theme.  I know of property leasing and management companies taking responsibility for leasee energy usage.  Presumably things will be written into contracts. 

I haven't got a problem with including the emissions in their figures per se.

 But in your example I doubt the management company directors could earn more bonus if the property was empty.

[BurntBread]

14 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Got the below through yesterday regarding the Shell AGM.  I do hope it's all just marketing bullshit, but I'll be voting against it anyway.

Apologies for the newbie question. I hold RDSB through Hargreaves Lansdown. Do I have the right to attend the AGM, and to vote? If so, how do I prove I'm a shareholder? I guess you can take your letter along, @JimmyTheBruce, but I haven't seen any communication about any shareholder votes on the HL platform.

[wherebee]

Talking to a builder mate today, does a range of medium size projects across australia.  timber costs up through the roof.  insulation and other supplies from overseas fucked and prices rising. tradie salaries up in some sectors by 50% since mid 2020.

He and I talked about inflation back in 2020, so he bought extra storage space for materials, stocked up, and is now pretty fucking happy with me.  He forward bought timber direct from the sawmills here in Vic and save himself - in his words - 25% minimum on prices this month.

Inflation demon out of the bottle here in Oz.

[M S E Refugee]

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

[JimmyTheBruce]

52 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Apologies for the newbie question. I hold RDSB through Hargreaves Lansdown. Do I have the right to attend the AGM, and to vote? If so, how do I prove I'm a shareholder? I guess you can take your letter along, @JimmyTheBruce, but I haven't seen any communication about any shareholder votes on the HL platform.

Most of my stuff is held with interactive investor.  I think I may have inadvertently changed a setting which means i now get a lot of emails through from the firms that organise the AGMs.  Even in the event that I don't, ii do send me notifications and their platform allows me to vote (and I assume they then consolidate and pass those votes on).  Can't comment on HL as I don't hold anything there, but perhaps one of the other guys knows?

Oh, and pretty much all the meetings are still being done remotely.  I guess its easier to mute the nutcase ranting about crazy wokeness than it is to physically remove him from a building.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Talking to a builder mate today, does a range of medium size projects across australia.  timber costs up through the roof.  insulation and other supplies from overseas fucked and prices rising. tradie salaries up in some sectors by 50% since mid 2020.

He and I talked about inflation back in 2020, so he bought extra storage space for materials, stocked up, and is now pretty fucking happy with me.  He forward bought timber direct from the sawmills here in Vic and save himself - in his words - 25% minimum on prices this month.

Inflation demon out of the bottle here in Oz.

I bought a load of insulation board and timber a year ago.  Still not enough!

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

Interesting the lens you choose to read geo-politics through.  US sanctions on Russia because of say Crimea or Ukraine or Putin's speech at the WEF and his little chat with Merkel?  Probably a bit of everything.  The challenge is to avoid the crossfire.  There are some far better markets out there but suppose our lot pull the plug on us, for our own good of course!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, planit said:

I haven't got a problem with including the emissions in their figures per se.

 But in your example I doubt the management company directors could earn more bonus if the property was empty.

Everyone, CEOs down, are being mandated by those higher up (big shareholders, who in turn.....) to do their bit to impose the agenda.  You want x, you behave like y.  A bit like social media already has done.  It's a broad concerted effort.  Groupthink at least, a lot more sinister at worst.  Best plug that into our Macro models. 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Lots more like gene editing comments which maybe outs the currrnt vaccine approach into context.

I leave these links here for you. Note the timeframe in the first link. Make of them what you will.

European Commission Vaccine passport roadmap 2018-2022:

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2019-2022_roadmap_en.pdf

ID2020 - UK parliament 

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/6355/pdf/

Digital ID and included partners:

https://www.weforum.org/press/2018/01/digital-identity-why-it-matters-and-why-it-s-important-we-get-it-right/

WEF:

https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021/sessions/scaling-up-digital-identity-systems

World Bank paper:

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/199411519691370495/Technology-Landscape-for-Digital-Identification.pdf

[Harley]

47 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

Ultimately, it's not what you make, it's where you put it.  Accumulations can dissapear at a keystroke, even now.

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interesting the lens you choose to read geo-politics through.  US sanctions on Russia because of say Crimea or Ukraine or Putin's speech at the WEF and his little chat with Merkel?  Probably a bit of everything.  The challenge is to avoid the crossfire.  There are some far better markets out there but suppose our lot pull the plug on us, for our own good of course!

The WEF's build back better just sounds like an updated version of Pol Pot's Year Zero.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I leave these links here for you. Note the timeframe in the first link. Make of them what you will.

Vaccine passport roadmap:

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2019-2022_roadmap_en.pdf

ID2020:

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/6355/pdf/

Digital ID and included partners:

https://www.weforum.org/press/2018/01/digital-identity-why-it-matters-and-why-it-s-important-we-get-it-right/

WEF:

https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021/sessions/scaling-up-digital-identity-systems

 

Ta, but I'm in.  Next step is to move on to countermeasures.  See ya in the other threads or PM or Stealth?  I don't want to burden this thread, despite the implications for it.  It's like A Russian doll - dolls within dolls.  Today is one doll, the BK, etc is the next larger doll, this stuff is the next larger one, and so forth.

[M S E Refugee]

New Zealand wants to ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2004 as part of plan to make nation ‘smoke free’ by 2025 https://www.rt.com/news/521201-new-zealand-cigarettes-smoking-ban/

Hope this doesn't catch on, I have a fair bit invested in Tobacco.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The WEF's build back better just sounds like an updated version of Pol Pot's Year Zero.

Very good point mate

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The WEF's build back better just sounds like an updated version of Pol Pot's Year Zero.

History rhymes, usually with the worst stuff, after all, that's what humankind is best at.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

New Zealand wants to ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2004 as part of plan to make nation ‘smoke free’ by 2025 https://www.rt.com/news/521201-new-zealand-cigarettes-smoking-ban/

Hope this doesn't catch on, I have a fair bit invested in Tobacco.

It really is open season now!  I've been banging on about regulation since dot.  Better all catch up with Napier if you haven't yet.  Even I need a refresher.  Try not to be like me, rabbit in the headlights!

[feed]

16 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

New Zealand wants to ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2004 as part of plan to make nation ‘smoke free’ by 2025 https://www.rt.com/news/521201-new-zealand-cigarettes-smoking-ban/

Hope this doesn't catch on, I have a fair bit invested in Tobacco.

Smoke free. 

Evidence indicates that the amount of tobacco products being smuggled into New Zealand has increased substantially in recent years and organised criminal groups are involved in large-scale smuggling

Call me cynical but what products are smoke free and less liable for smuggling.     

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, feed said:

Smoke free. 

Evidence indicates that the amount of tobacco products being smuggled into New Zealand has increased substantially in recent years and organised criminal groups are involved in large-scale smuggling

Call me cynical but what products are smoke free and less liable for smuggling.     

Potatoes?

[feed]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Potatoes?

If you like, or alternatively vaping. 

Traditional tobacco products in developing markets
Vaping and cannabis vaping in developed markets, with state prohibition on “smoke” products as market protectionism.

Imagine the revenue increase on vape products in the UK, if the black market on smuggled cigarettes from Pakistan disappeared tomorrow. 

Feels like NZ (low pop) is going to be a test country.     
 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

Do you not think it'll fall in price if/when there are new sanctions put on Russia.

Applies to all Rusky stocks.