Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

5 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Good video. Thanks for sharing.

I know a lot of people dont rate the Chinks but I think that they are not incompetent. They were starving and couldnt make a decent amount of usable steel in the 60s and now they are throwing folk into their space station.

For the CCP to retain power they need to show progress and they have hundreds of millions of people that they can offer simple upgrades. For example, their first household fridge, their first household car etc

If they can continue to build up their internal market then that alone is 1.5 billion people

Hmm, depends how you measure 'incompetence'. After all many other Asian Tigers had a similar starting point but they have produced far better societies. And that Chinese famine was at least in part, some say mostly, due to useless/incompetent highly centralissed control agri reforms. And have they learnt nothing since? ie Their system is so unstable Xi Jumping has made himself dictator for life, so what happens after he dies? Imho it's not a country, more an empire and ready for breakup.                                                                                                         As for 'throwing folk into space stations'... Sorry, but that don't impress me much. I pay far more attention to where the CCCP are throwing their dissidents. I detest the Chinese/CCP model, let's face it it's medieval with tech characteristics, what else could really be said about it.                                                                                   Apologies if this comes across as a rant (at you reformed nice guy) but casual affectations toward China 'trigger' me! After all we shouldn't want our feckless politicians becoming jealous and casually importing crazy Chinese copycat policies, etc... arriving here to infect us all... after all, once started, it would be rather like an unstoppable virus?!?

[Loki]

 

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Was just saying this to my wife today.

I have friends who have been sat at home on furlough and self-employed grants for the last 15 months or so while also getting bounce back loans and claiming benefits. Now I have done my 2020/2021 tax return, and it asks how much you got and how much you got that you were not entitled to. They now announce that furlough, SEISC payments etc will not be taken into consideration for mortgages etc. Great for them to tell us that now, if they had said that from the word go, no one would have stopped working.

When this covid shit is over, they are going to start to claw everything back. Tax bills, repossessions, evictions, etc.

I fully expect assets such as shares will be in the firing line.

All smoke and mirrors, corrupt and incompetent in equal measure.

Im getting my none means tested JSA now for 6 months.Then il claim my 1 years none means tested ESA.Il tell the quack over the phone iv got mega anxiety etc and want to kill myself ,sick note or as they are called fit note il get the ESA until they manage to arrange a meeting where il score zero points and they will stop it saying nothing wrong with me,but at the moment those arent happening.I might do the odd 3 or 4 months a year down the line,but i might not.

[Hancock]

35 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When this covid shit is over, they are going to start to claw everything back. Tax bills, repossessions, evictions, etc.

 

If you've a Limited Company, once its closed down there is nothing to chase.

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im getting my none means tested JSA now for 6 months.

Is that the new style JSA? Might do that myself, self-employment income has crashed for me since April for whatever reason.

NI contribution paid as well I see.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

If you've a Limited Company, once its closed down there is nothing to chase.

All the ones I know are sole traders. No LTD got SEISS grants. But fair point.

[reformed nice guy]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

If you've a Limited Company, once its closed down there is nothing to chase.

Depends how you get the money out the account. If you buy stuff then thats fine, but if you draw it as a salary you will need to pay income tax but walk away with ~60%. If you draw it as dividends you will need to show a profit. If you took it as a directors loan they will take it back from you.

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, reformed nice guy said:

Depends how you get the money out the account. If you buy stuff then thats fine, but if you draw it as a salary you will need to pay income tax but walk away with ~60%. If you draw it as dividends you will need to show a profit. If you took it as a directors loan they will take it back from you.

 

I didnt get the £50k BBL, in hindsight it was a stupid mistake. It was the once in a lifetime lottery win for many.

[reformed nice guy]

40 minutes ago, JMD said:

Hmm, depends how you measure 'incompetence'. After all many other Asian Tigers had a similar starting point but they have produced far better societies. And that Chinese famine was at least in part, some say mostly, due to useless/incompetent highly centralissed control agri reforms. And have they learnt nothing since? ie Their system is so unstable Xi Jumping has made himself dictator for life, so what happens after he dies? Imho it's not a country, more an empire and ready for breakup.                                                                                                         As for 'throwing folk into space stations'... Sorry, but that don't impress me much. I pay far more attention to where the CCCP are throwing their dissidents. I detest the Chinese/CCP model, let's face it it's medieval with tech characteristics, what else could really be said about it.                                                                                   Apologies if this comes across as a rant (at you reformed nice guy) but casual affectations toward China 'trigger' me! After all we shouldn't want our feckless politicians becoming jealous and casually importing crazy Chinese copycat policies, etc... arriving here to infect us all... after all, once started, it would be rather like an unstoppable virus?!?

I agree that Singapore, Taiwan etc are MUCH better societies. I hate communism, especially Leninism, but they have made great leaps (pardon the pun)

Even back in the 1985, farming was 35% of Chinas economy and mostly for the internal market. Now its about 10% and a massive exporter.

There are people working in cutting edge AI or robotics in China just now whos parents were eating tree bark to survive. That is mind boggling progress.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

£2.15 a pint around here even the expensive places are £2.80.Incredible now how much council managers are getting away with it like crazy now the waste is incredible.I should apply for some job at the council and see how long i can get away with doing nothing at all.

Durham looking ever more attractive. Even a Sammy Smiths pub wants twice that down here.

[Loki]

https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-feds-kashkari-opposed-rate-hikes-least-through-2023-2021-06-18/

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Is that the new style JSA? Might do that myself, self-employment income has crashed for me since April for whatever reason.

NI contribution paid as well I see.

Yes,but you need employed stamp not self employed,you need £6200 from employed earnings per year for 2 years,self employed stamp doesnt count.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,but you need employed stamp not self employed,you need £6200 from employed earnings per year for 2 years,self employed stamp doesnt count.

Bugger.

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Durham looking ever more attractive. Even a Sammy Smiths pub wants twice that down here.

You find a lot up here have two prices,very cheap until 6pm then add 70p on after that.£2.15 is about the lowest now,then lots round £2.30/£2.50.Key is to get a Spoons close by that holds the prices down.Our workmans clubs are actually more expensive than pubs now because most owe money to breweries so cant shop around.One local one took all the loans and grants from covid and paid off the brewery so can now compete.We have "man in the van" as well.Thats a few guys who deliver barrels to pubs out of a transit van.Even the tied pubs run one in four of them through the pumps,no tax,no duty etc.

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Although if I understand him correctly, he does think total global oil demand has hit its peak and will now begin to fall. Hope others on here will listen and comment as energy sector is crucial to this thread I think.       

But what you have to remember is that due to reduced capex/discovery the supply will reduce as well, meaning increased demand for what is available=higher oil prices.

[leonardratso]

11 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

But what you have to remember is that due to reduced capex/discovery the supply will reduce as well, meaning increased demand for what is available=higher oil prices.

might be another whale oil/kerosene type thing

[Innkeeper]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You find a lot up here have two prices,very cheap until 6pm then add 70p on after that.£2.15 is about the lowest now,then lots round £2.30/£2.50.Key is to get a Spoons close by that holds the prices down.Our workmans clubs are actually more expensive than pubs now because most owe money to breweries so cant shop around.One local one took all the loans and grants from covid and paid off the brewery so can now compete.We have "man in the van" as well.Thats a few guys who deliver barrels to pubs out of a transit van.Even the tied pubs run one in four of them through the pumps,no tax,no duty etc.

The tied pubs will have to frig the flow meters to do that   Although they might bank on no brewery inspections cos Covid 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/19/us-raider-plots-55bn-bid-morrisons/

Now i own some Morrisons shares so likely a pay day for me monday on them.I bought them mainly because they are the UKs biggest food producer,a business not many know about.

However this is another example of what @Harley has been warning about over and over.Assets that should be owned by ordinary investors in their pensions etc are slowly being taken private so that all the free cash can go to their rich friends.I hope this deal falls through,or there is a counter offer from someone.

US entities are using the massive dollar liquidity to buy up real assets over and over and our useless government does nothing about it.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I agree that Singapore, Taiwan etc are MUCH better societies. I hate communism, especially Leninism, but they have made great leaps (pardon the pun)

Even back in the 1985, farming was 35% of Chinas economy and mostly for the internal market. Now its about 10% and a massive exporter.

There are people working in cutting edge AI or robotics in China just now whos parents were eating tree bark to survive. That is mind boggling progress.

Perhaps we are going a little off thread. But as I don't invest in China I thought I might elaborate a little more to explain why I don't do so.                                                                                                                                                                  Until a few years ago I thought many of the same things you say above about China. I even thought China and the EU would drift ever closer together, politically and economically, they seemed a tragically close match, until that is, around the time of the 2008 global crash. Even after then the MSM kept plugging on about China 'doing capitalism better than the West'! There were even stories of how retired judges, etc from the West were living and advising the Chinese authorities on how they might reform their legal system. These things increasingly didn't ring true to me. But the global crash, along with increasing internal divisions within China's borders crystallized things. These things panicked China and it set about rapidly turning itself into a security state.                                                                                                                                                        So I disagree that China's progress over the last 40 years has been 'mind boggling'. After all it has been accomplished with great help from the West. And moreover didn't the USSR transform itself over a similar period, without any such cooperation from other nations? In fact by the 60's there was full on East West cold war. All command economies tend to make fast progress but it's usually a mirage, rather like a political Ponzi scheme. I dislike all command economies btw, including the corporatist one we in the West appear to be embarking on.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But what you have to remember is that due to reduced capex/discovery the supply will reduce as well, meaning increased demand for what is available=higher oil prices.

Thanks MrXxxx, the reduced capex point makes sense.

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/19/us-raider-plots-55bn-bid-morrisons/

Now i own some Morrisons shares so likely a pay day for me monday on them.I bought them mainly because they are the UKs biggest food producer,a business not many know about.

However this is another example of what @Harley has been warning about over and over.Assets that should be owned by ordinary investors in their pensions etc are slowly being taken private so that all the free cash can go to their rich friends.I hope this deal falls through,or there is a counter offer from someone.

US entities are using the massive dollar liquidity to buy up real assets over and over and our useless government does nothing about it.

This theme of the rich taking assets private and leaving the rest of us with fewer ways to build wealth is infuriating. Without the option of buying stocks, it's what? Back to taking a massive leveraged bet on the housing market as the only way for the plebs to get ahead.

The trend is a consequence of central bank intervention, right? So much cheap money sloshing around. Do you think it will continue when interest rates start to rise? 

[Sugarlips]

Rick Rule says the silver squeeze is definitely working...

 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

However this is another example of what @Harley has been warning about over and over.

Whoops, sorry!

Morrisons loves the NHS but not me.

Sold, not sorry!

I also checked and they cost more.

PS:  Anyone looked at SUPR?

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Mapper said:

Back to taking a massive leveraged bet on the housing market as the only way for the plebs to get ahead.

But they don't unless they own more than one.  It's a distraction scam while the real assets are taken.  It's also probably a trap.  Like an ambush, funnel everyone there then bang bang.

[geordie_lurch]

16 hours ago, Loki said:

 

Ok that's the final piece in the puzzle of all this for me. China has just bought 10x more corn from the USA as the USA are supposedly about have a really bad yield at the same time as the West is injecting as many of its people with this dangerous 'vaccine'. They are getting ready to batten down the hatches and await the Wests self destruction

Given everything I've read and looked into these last few years and especially since Covid I think the next 12 months are going to be worse than World War 2 in terms of civilian human deaths and suffering (vaccine related) and I wish all on here the very best navigating it all.