Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DoINeedOne]

Abit off topic but like @Bobthebuilder has talked about heat-pumps are aload of bollocks

 

[headrow]

8 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

BAG has been one of my best performers, and when everyone was cutting/stopping their divis in 2020 it continued to yield...aa long as they don't put bottles of IrnBru in the press briefings when Ronaldo comes to visit we should be OK :-)

I was going to pull the trigger on BAG a while ago but then found they had lost the contract with Rockstar for the cans of energy drinks , i worked in retail for 20 years and when we ordered from Barr back then cans of Rockstar were easily a good 50% of the order. It spooked me and i didn't buy. 

 

I live off my dividends so that is the number one criteria to me when investing , i would never buy anything without a yield but Barr have promised they are coming back. I have a few in my portfolio who aren't paying at the moment , Carnival , Centrica , Go Ahead and Stagecoach. I really should dump them but hopefully in 2/3 years time they too are in a position to resume payouts. Last year i took a 10k haircut on what i earn from my dividends but with the amount of shares i bought at the lows of Spring 2020 i am well on the way to recouping that this tax year. I only work cash in hand jobs now if i have to and the amount of work i get offered is unbelievable , helping a builder last week , £100 for 4 hours work 9 till 1. Tesco is about the only place left taking cash so i've been going in and spending £100 on booze every day , they have some great compost at 2 bags for £6 as well , mix a bit of grit in with it and my cannabis plants thrive in it. I retired 5 years ago at 48 , being single there was no point in carrying on working , i have no intentions of spending shitloads doing up a house , driving a fancy car , expensive holidays. I live very frugally and love it , i deleted my CV 5 years ago and haven't regretted it once. I would say i am totally unemployable in a job that involves dealing with people now. Which is a great comfort to me.

[headrow]

15 hours ago, Harley said:

Not me, I never give tips!  I'm already 1.9% total portfolio value so I'm now in the deckchair for that one.  There was a buy signal in May21 on the daily, Jun21 on the weekly, and Jul21 on the monthly.  That's 12%, 12%, and 6%.  So I lost 6% playing the more certain monthly.  Not good so review time to consider going back to weekly data.  What I really need is a laddering approach based on the interplay between the weekly and monthly data.  As the the macro reasons why, not a clue but that's the way it is and a reason will be along soon!  Data is your friend.  Talk is cheap!

PS: VGOV and IBGL a little less clear but want to follow.  Key is to understand the underlying currency movements.

I've had 4 bites at it , 363p , 365p , 368p and 370p. I don't know why i didn't just buy it all in one go. Sometimes i just have to buy something!

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

This is the problem I have with dividend data.  Investing.com, yahoo, HL, etc all show a zero dividend for BAG.  Even their own investor pages are out of date:

https://www.agbarr.co.uk/investors/⠀⠀dividends/

It seems you have to buy the bloody thing to actually find out for sure... or believe a bunch of weirdos in a basement on the Internet.....😉

Here you go, I think this is what you are looking for [about half way down]

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/BAG

[MrXxxx]

45 minutes ago, headrow said:

I live off my dividends so that is the number one criteria to me when investing , i would never buy anything without a yield but Barr have promised they are coming back. I have a few in my portfolio who aren't paying at the moment , Carnival , Centrica , Go Ahead and Stagecoach. I really should dump them but hopefully in 2/3 years time they too are in a position to resume payouts

I think this is the point...2020 showed us all that dividends are not guaranteed and can be pulled at any time. When this happens you don't have an Income share, just a poorly performing Growth share!

[MrXxxx]

48 minutes ago, headrow said:

I retired 5 years ago at 48 , being single there was no point in carrying on working , i have no intentions of spending shitloads doing up a house , driving a fancy car , expensive holidays. I live very frugally and love it , i deleted my CV 5 years ago and haven't regretted it once.

I wish I had come to the same realization as you ten years ago....its only when 'events' happen that you realize a career, peer group status, possessions, and more than a basic income count for very little in the 'scheme of things'...I think others on here have come to the same realization or like me are 'late arrivals at the party' and are just starting to 'dance' :-)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Abit off topic but like @Bobthebuilder has talked about heat-pumps are aload of bollocks

 

I've always liked the guy.  Been very useful.  I totally agree having looked at all this in detail over several months several years ago.  Fine if you build a house around the pump(!) but no way as a retrofit for many properties.

[Hardhat]

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

[Barnsey]

So the question is, what next for policy?

[Noallegiance]

16 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

I'll be interested to see if it's another sign of the volatility and short sharp corrections in a melt up. 

Trying to let it play.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Abit off topic but like @Bobthebuilder has talked about heat-pumps are aload of bollocks

 

The only problem with 'Heated jackets' is when you want to shower...or procreate! :-)

[Bricormortis]

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

me too.  But I am OK with that, as I got 10k in oilies out before the drop and will buy back in if they go down to a level I like the smell of.

[HousePriceMania]

18 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

The schools around us last week or two have been sending classes by the truck load home.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-more-than-one-million-children-in-england-absent-from-school-last-week-over-virus-data-shows-12359744

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

So the question is, what next for policy?

Tight rope is getting narrower, Stagflation on side and deflation on the other?  I can't shake the feeling that its all bad choices from here.

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

My ISA had been flat or minor drops for a while. SIPP rocketed ahead thanks to Peabody. Trading 212 NASDAQ CFD had been doing very nicely

[sancho panza]

16 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

A timely reminder that the average drawdown in times of oil backwardation is 18.7%. 14.3% on this one so far, and well overdue. Spreads have dropped a lot, but we are still in backwardation. Let's see what happens next...

Real yields broke that resistance. What say you, gold?

That's a really interesting chart ref backwardation/contango.I'll declare early in this psot we're buying some call options today,particualrly BP and XOM if I can get good prices,intersting to see XOM off it's lows yesterday.

I'll set two or three ladders as we could bounce hard here

I checked Q2 results due for Shell 27 july,XOM 30/7 BP 3/aug.

They've had a few motnhs of $75 oil..........I'll take my chances.

Ref the futures,I jsut don't know why -even allowing for population growth and an increase in demand from China/Indian mifddle classes-anyone would price 2026 at $51 given that the marginal supply of US shale will only kick in at $70/$80/we haevn't had a big find since guyana and all the other evidence you've citred off saudi not having more than 5mn bbpd of spare capacity and that's only for a few motnhs due to coning issues.

I've had a couple of successful squeezes on the options thus far,I'm looking at this and wondering if I'm the only thinking what I'm thinking.

Just closed out some XOM $57.50s last week,effectively buying them back for free....why wouldn't I?

 

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The case for a run up in the yellow stuff is well made here.Ill take my chances.....or idle hands will do some damage.

Look at the bottom Aug 20 which coincided with  $2000-...5th jan 21 was $1957

Measured from the Aug 7th high

 

decl:long the miners.

[Noallegiance]

I pin no colours to the mast with this post.

I simply make the observation - what is it with the start of the 1980s?!

I maintain that we are all linked in ways that we haven't even begun to comprehend. Earth, sea, sky, solar system, universe. 

Cyclical changes in weather, the moon, solar flares and human behaviour. There will be a link/links somewhere.

[Barnsey]

45 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Tight rope is getting narrower, Stagflation on side and deflation on the other?  I can't shake the feeling that its all bad choices from here.

I honestly don't know, the plunge in UST 10yr has been quite something. Refinance going to boom over the pond yet again after its brief hiatus...

 

[planit]

I feel that this wave will be over quicker than everyone thinks. Within a week we will see the beginning of reversal in cases. It might take a week extra for the 7 day average to turn down.

Government still lying, one of those people that stand up at the podiums said their model is showing a peak or a plateau of cases. What complete crap, show me any way anywhere where the cases go up exponentially and then stay there (new paradigm LOL) meaning their 'model' would not predict that.

 

Anyway, the world will be watching the UK so once our peak looks to be turning down with no Armageddon, it will give the markets and rest of the world confidence that there is nothing to worry about.

If I hadn't f**ked up so much last week I would have bought back in earlier today 

[DurhamBorn]

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

[planit]

15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I pin no colours to the mast with this post.

I simply make the observation - what is it with the start of the 1980s?!

I maintain that we are all linked in ways that we haven't even begun to comprehend. Earth, sea, sky, solar system, universe. 

Cyclical changes in weather, the moon, solar flares and human behaviour. There will be a link/links somewhere.

 

This line might be a representation of world urban development more than anything else if it's true the temperature changes are not adjusted properly for changes in environmental development as is suggested.

Perhaps the rebuilding after the second world war stopped new development or something similar. Early 80's widespread recession?

[Barnsey]

32 minutes ago, planit said:

I feel that this wave will be over quicker than everyone thinks. Within a week we will see the beginning of reversal in cases. It might take a week extra for the 7 day average to turn down.

Government still lying, one of those people that stand up at the podiums said their model is showing a peak or a plateau of cases. What complete crap, show me any way anywhere where the cases go up exponentially and then stay there (new paradigm LOL) meaning their 'model' would not predict that.

 

Anyway, the world will be watching the UK so once our peak looks to be turning down with no Armageddon, it will give the markets and rest of the world confidence that there is nothing to worry about.

If I hadn't f**ked up so much last week I would have bought back in earlier today 

Really hope you're right, standing by to cancel my early Oct U.S. trip like...

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Measured from the 1960's low I think you're making the point that greta won't make in her and her people's grab for global power.