Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I pin no colours to the mast with this post.

I simply make the observation - what is it with the start of the 1980s?!

I maintain that we are all linked in ways that we haven't even begun to comprehend. Earth, sea, sky, solar system, universe. 

Cyclical changes in weather, the moon, solar flares and human behaviour. There will be a link/links somewhere.

What this got me thinking, if a 1 degree rise in temperature sets us up for " climate catastrophy", were doomed any way because temperatures fluctuate over time. Makes Extinction Rebellion seem a bit similar in mindset to King Canute.

I think global warming is a thing, but wrong on time frames as evidenced by the predictions on poles melting by 2010 and so on. In any event realistically nothing much we can do about it short term, its a result of population growth.

[Barnsey]

There we are, fairly predictable.

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

They withheld 26.5% on my last Orange dividend. 😭  It's not in an ISA or SIPP.

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Tight rope is getting narrower, Stagflation on side and deflation on the other?  I can't shake the feeling that its all bad choices from here.

nice description there MP.

Check this out....what mispricing of risk....???

This is going to be horrendous when it blows

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

A decent 20 with the proviso that the balance sheet has Scottish Play type aspects.BS score in red means 75% of net assets are goodwill,green means more than 50%.I've had a quick reassess and the system doesn't allow me to give them a higher score than 5 but the FCF yield is 16% on the full year results....

Same with a lot of these though balance sheet wise but if you dig deeper then you may find they are priced at very advantageous terms for the company.

Reality is they were kicking off a lot of FCF last year.

Company	Share price	Date	Chart	Inc	BS	CF	Sector	SCS
Airtel Africa	GBP 0.7785	10/06/21	3	4	1	5	4	17
Americ Movil	MXN 15.78	10/06/21	1	3	1	5	4	14
AT&T	USD 30.04	17/03/21	3	1	2	5	4	15
BT	GBP 1.75	01/06/21	4	4	2	3	4	17
Deutsche tel	E 16.655	17/03/21	1	3	1	3	4	12
Drillisch	E26.36	10/06/21	3	3	5	3	4	18
KDDI	Y 3632	10/06/21	1	3	3	5	4	16
Koninklijke	E 2.923	17/03/21	4	3	2	5	4	18
KT	Korea 26900	17/03/21	3	4	3	5	4	19
LM Ericsson B	Skr 115.80	18/03/21	2	3	2	3	4	14
MTN	ZAR 8809	18/03/21	3	4	2	5	4	18
Nippon Telegraph	Y2874	10/06/21	4	4	3	4	4	19
Nokia	E 3.505	18/03/21	4	1	3	3	4	15
Orange	E9.42	20/07/21	4	5	2	5	4	20
Proximus	E 18.29	18/03/21	4	4	2	3	4	17
Singtel	S$ 2.43	01/06/21	4	2	4	4	4	18
SK Telecom	KRW 334000	11/06/21	1	4	3	4	4	16
Swisscom	CHF 489.1	18/03/21	2	3	3	3	4	15
Telecom Italia	E 0.4646	18/03/21	4	5	2	5	4	20
Telefonica	E 4.077	18/03/21	5	3	2	5	4	19
Telefonica Brazil	BRL 47.45	10/06/21	5	3	4	5	4	21
Telefonica Deutsch	E2.264	10/06/21	5	3	3	5	4	20
Telenor	Nkr 151.05	18/03/21	2	4	1	2	4	13
Telia	Skr 37.06	18/03/21	3	1	2	4	4	14
Telkom Indonesia	IDR 3480	10/06/21	1	3	3
Telstra	AUD 3.19	18/03/21	4	3	2	4	4	17
TIM SA	YSD 12.83	10/06/21	4	3	4	5	4	20
Telus
T-Mobile	USD 146.89	10/06/21	1	2	2	1	4	10
Turkcell	USD 5.55	18/03/21	5	5	2	5	4	21
Verizon	USD 55.83	18/03/21	1	3	2	3	4	13
Vodafone	GBP 1.28	01/06/21	5	2	3	5	4	19

 

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, headrow said:

I was going to pull the trigger on BAG a while ago but then found they had lost the contract with Rockstar for the cans of energy drinks , i worked in retail for 20 years and when we ordered from Barr back then cans of Rockstar were easily a good 50% of the order. It spooked me and i didn't buy. 

 

I live off my dividends so that is the number one criteria to me when investing , i would never buy anything without a yield but Barr have promised they are coming back. I have a few in my portfolio who aren't paying at the moment , Carnival , Centrica , Go Ahead and Stagecoach. I really should dump them but hopefully in 2/3 years time they too are in a position to resume payouts. Last year i took a 10k haircut on what i earn from my dividends but with the amount of shares i bought at the lows of Spring 2020 i am well on the way to recouping that this tax year. I only work cash in hand jobs now if i have to and the amount of work i get offered is unbelievable , helping a builder last week , £100 for 4 hours work 9 till 1. Tesco is about the only place left taking cash so i've been going in and spending £100 on booze every day. I retired 5 years ago at 48 , being single there was no point in carrying on working , i have no intentions of spending shitloads doing up a house , driving a fancy car , expensive holidays. I live very frugally and love it , i deleted my CV 5 years ago and haven't regretted it once. I would say i am totally unemployable in a job that involves dealing with people now. Which is a great comfort to me.

This section of the forum isn't hidden, people don't even need to be members and logged in to read it. Cut a bit out of the quote.

Ditto the unemployable now and glad about it. CV already had gaps to try explain but nothing now for 18 years!

[leonardratso]

uncle dave inbound;

 

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Measured from the 1960's low I think you're making the point that greta won't make in her and her people's grab for global power.

Wow

[JFK]

I'll be the first to admit that I understand economics only a very rudimentary level and certain not the extent of some of the posters on this thread but thought I'd share a very interesting observation about the current financial landscape of the USA and fed regarding money printing, inflation and their strategy, copying and pasting from a forum post and linking a video.

It suggests that the Fed is going to try and use the Reverse Repo market to fight inflation, what are people's thoughts?
 

Quote

How the FED is going to fight Inflation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8NaWeRZzk

I'm linking to this video from George Gammon regarding how the Reverse Repo market is being used by the FED to create deflationary pressure to offset inflation.

I've previously explained in videos and elsewhere how the FED was created to allow the government to tax people without them realizing they're being taxed so that the people don't riot as the government struggles to pay for the Welfare State. As the Welfare State goes bankrupt and the government has to pay for more and more spending via inflation, the new risk isn't of riots, but of high inflation causing panics and riots themselves.

So the FED now has to add another layer onto the "trick" to get the people to pay for their own shit without rioting or panicking, and this is the Reverse Repo Market where the banks give their money to the FED because interest rates are so low that they can't make anything on their deposits, which removed money from the financial system and serves to reverse the increased money supply that causes inflation.

I'll break it down...

1. The government needs money to pay for welfare, but it can't raise taxes or cut spending, so it prints money to pay for it.

2. The increase in the money supply causes inflation.

3. The inflation gets bad and people demand the government lower prices.

3A: If the government listens to the people and institute price controls, it will cause famine and an economic and social collapse.

3B: The FED can use reverse-repo to shrink the money supply which will reverse-inflation (hopefully) without raising interest rates! This has never been attempted on this scale before.

4. If this works, the FED has done the impossible, by creating a new "magic trick" to fool the retarded welfare-demanding masses into paying for their welfare with inflation, but preventing hyperinflation and famine as so many countries have fallen prey to in the past.

5. However, if this doesn't work. The lack of liquidity in the banking system could cause an economic collapse on its own as people won't have access to credit, even with low interest rates. Note: You're seeing this happening right now with real estate. There are people trying to get real-estate who are being turned down for mortgages because they have less-than-perfect credit despite rates being at historic lows. This is what the future might look like: extremely low rates, but extremely high lending standards due to a limited supply of dollars.

6. The end result will likely be the nationalization of the banking system similarly to how student loans were nationalized. When nobody can qualify for a loan, the people will demand the government take over the system and give them free money, which will undo the little magic trick the FED successfully created.

7. Alternatively, the FED can use the new cryptocurrency they're making to replace the current banking system with a digital one that eliminates commercial banks, and where everything is run through the FED and the government.

8. At this point, the United States is now China with a Fascist economy, with two classes: The ruling class, and the dependent slave class.

I haven't worked out exactly what the play is here, as this is largely uncharted waters, and if the entire economy goes down or is nationalized, there is no asset class that you can buy that will protect you. I'm working on it, but if you guys have any ideas or thoughts, let me know.

 

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

I mentioned upthread that the tax on my Total Energies seemed to be 30%!  I've got a note that it is 28%.  So to ensure parity on the divs with say the UK, would need to be 4.17% versus 3%.  Good if someone could confirm.

Indeed confirm the following I prepared for my use (as it could easily be wrong):

[MrXxxx]

Quick Newbie question regarding Stop Loss and Stop Limit orders.

1. I know that a disadvantage with Stop Loss orders is that if the market volatile they can be triggered [and sold] at a price below that specified, how often and by how much [%] does it usually happen?

2. I assume that whilst the advantage of a Stop Limit order is that it avoids the issue in 1. above, is the disadvantage that in such a situation your stock is not sold as it didn't 'stop' at your Limit price?

3. Do most brokers usually charge for these type of orders and how are they usually charged i.e. % or fixed fee, and how long can they remain active for?

Thanks.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I mentioned upthread that the tax on my Total Energies seemed to be 30%!  I've got a note that it is 28%.  So to ensure parity on the divs with say the UK, would need to be 4.17% versus 3%.  Good if someone could confirm.

Indeed confirm the following I prepared for my use (as it could easily be wrong):

Can we clarify if these apply within ISA/SIPPS or is it just a standard trading account?

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Can we clarify if these apply within ISA/SIPPS or is it just a standard trading account?

A good catch. 

Basically a trading account with no available exemptions applied except the WBEN for the US (this and maybe the Canadian equivalent being the only ones most brokers would support (i.e. do for you)).  I may have done the same for Canada as I show 15% (I can't remember).  The 15% for the US could be 0% in a SIPP as I understand the US Tax folk accept a SIPP as a US equivalent pension.  The other country rates could be reduced if you could claim the tax back via the countries' tax authorities but I don't bother so have sought to show them gross.  Then there is a potential tax reclaim (offset) within your UK tax return for WHT but obviously not if the dividends came from stocks held in a tax wrapper like a SIPP or ISA.  The list however is just WHT rates so ignores all that UK tax side of things.

This is not tax advice and such details are unique to an individual's circumstances so people would need to work this out for themselves and not rely on this post.  The list was meant to show the basic "vanilla" rates I could find on the internet and I posted it for validation purposes as this is a difficult task, especially as what documentation I could find often talks about intercompany, etc dividends rather than specifically dividends to retail investors.  I'm keen to hear from people who have actually received dividends from these countries (note by countries, I understand the general rule is the domicile of the company rather than the stock exchange through which it was purchased, something else to confirm).  There are also variations like receiving scrip rather than a cash dividend which may change the tax position but I have not looked into these aspects.

There are probably other considerations I've missed.  The aim for me is to be aware of relative broad likely WHT rates as my stock selection criteria includes a minimum 3% yield and clearly that is potentially quite different between countries once WHT is considered.  It also highlights the need to consider what type of account to hold what and (given restricted funds in the various accounts), in what priority order.  In that, I find the need to hold only GBP in ISAs a major impediment given the Forex costs but that's another topic.

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

This seems right for WHT as @JimmyTheBruce says 26.5 for France on his divi and thats the same here.Palestine is zero,whats their telco called, TT-CASS ( two tin cans and some string )

[Harley]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Quick Newbie question regarding Stop Loss and Stop Limit orders.

1. I know that a disadvantage with Stop Loss orders is that if the market volatile they can be triggered [and sold] at a price below that specified, how often and by how much [%] does it usually happen?

2. I assume that whilst the advantage of a Stop Limit order is that it avoids the issue in 1. above, is the disadvantage that in such a situation your stock is not sold as it didn't 'stop' at your Limit price?

3. Do most brokers usually charge for these type of orders and how are they usually charged i.e. % or fixed fee, and how long can they remain active for?

Thanks.

My guesses:

1.  Depends very much on the individual stock.

2.  It's usually an AND condition in effect during the main trading hours (although some brokers offer variants) and does what it says on the tin so no disadvantage unless you don't want what's written on the tin!.

3. Mine don't.  That used to be more common but IME less so now.

Important is that the details can vary between brokers.  IB for example offer a slew of configuration options, HL probably not.  There is no standard set of terms so you'll need to read the small print rather than assume things because of their names.

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

This seems right for WHT as @JimmyTheBruce says 26.5 for France on his divi and thats the same here.Palestine is zero,whats their telco called, TT-CASS ( two tin cans and some string )

Thanks for that.  I've updated my list for the changes.  I assume this is for a UK investor, although am worried to see 20% on UK REITs.  It also reminded me that there was talk about some implications from Brexit as the EU was seeking to harmonize rates so there was no discrimination between residents in each member state, something the UK is no longer.

PS:  I think it's for US investors so there may be differences for the UK investor.

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

This seems right for WHT as @JimmyTheBruce says 26.5 for France on his divi and thats the same here.Palestine is zero,whats their telco called, TT-CASS ( two tin cans and some string )

Yes, my recent Total Energies WHT was 26.5%.  In an ISA so I can't claim some of the tax back in my UK return (if I did one) and apparently a bugger to get out of the French.  Plus the forex hit given it's an ISA.  So a cost of doing business to me so something defo to account for when comparing companies domiciled in different countries.

PS:  Total used to offer scrip so this is the first cash div?  At least the div is currently 7.57% (or so depending on where you look!).

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

Many of my stocks are down that sort of amount too (but was a lot worse in March).  However a number of new resource stocks (including US ones) have appeared on my radar (so a material break in price) so I'm just waiting for them to bottom.  At 30% of my portfolio value invested in equity, I'm happy with that!

[feed]

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Yes, my recent Total Energies WHT was 26.5%.  In an ISA so I can't claim some of the tax back in my UK return (if I did one) and apparently a bugger to get out of the French.  Plus the forex hit given it's an ISA.  So a cost of doing business to me so something defo to account for when comparing companies domiciled in different countries.

PS:  Total used to offer scrip so this is the first cash div?  At least the div is currently 7.57% (or so depending on where you look!).

I try to avoid where the tax is high and the fees etc ,but on Orange today i think even after the tax im looking at around 5.45% divi and that will do nicely,if they hold it,but looks fine unless disaster hits.I sold a chunk of Potash today on an average 95% gain over 16 months.I love the sector,but its done really well for me and wanted to broaden out.Iv picked up a few more Telefonica Brasil as well.Plus on Orange i could buy direct shares,no ADR or Crest etc,so a small,but added bonus.

[JMD]

On 19/07/2021 at 18:26, Harley said:

As I mentioned a few days ago - watch the narratives being played.  There's data and there's meta data (data about data).  Same with the news.  There's news and there's news about the news!

I reckon they're trying to pull people back from the ledge and normalise.  Maybe a collection of reasons but surely they went too far with the psyops, partly because they wanted to play with their new toys (like others did with the new "vaccine" tech) and partly because they did not appreciate how inherently malleable the general populace was.  There will be general smoke but that's the guts of it.  Also fits with the characteristic of the Boris regime ("court") of people being able to go off on one only to be reigned in much later.

That farce narrative with the pilot nonsense seemed more of a lead by example play to capture the anger and dissipate it by then yielding.  Takes the sting out of people.  Aka "a controlled demolition"!  Of course you need more than one narrative so I'll add a switch today in giving air time to a differences in talk between Starmer and the Cons.  The news actually played a soundbite of Starmer about being premature with the "relaxing" of lockdown, something that hasn't happened for a while.  Again, fosters a sense of normality (the old discourse).  I could also add the emerging psyops narratives themselves and the demonisation of the "Independent" SAGE, etc, plus the airtime given to Sir Ian Brady.

I'd like to see it as I have seen a few times in a prior life with the accountants moving in to deal with a failed newish CEO (Boris) who's run out of road but sadly that may just be a hope of mine.  It could equally be just a freeze-thaw-repeat tactic to wear down the populace (plus some more destabilising hypernormalisation).  It could also be quieting down one front in order to open a new one - the financial one!

We only get the news (narratives) they want us to get.  The trick is to reverse engineer that while staying sane!

Could someone please enlighten me as to the point of (so-called) 'Independent' SAGE? ie Their messaging appears even more confusing than the SAGE 'Classic' version!!

...Also, not wishing to alarm anyone, but i now read that this outfit (Indi Sage) is apparently intending to continue on post-pandemic. However, their remit will then widen to cover climate change... and the real kicker is that senior reps from the IEA will be on the executive board... all this looks very worrying? ...Any so any hope for future debate about climate change/alternatives/policies is about to be extinguished forever, and ever, Amen!!

[Sugarlips]

Lyn on top form as usual, suggests scooping up cheap hard assets here whilst the market is having a tantrum (silver, BTC, oil etc) so long as you have a 3-5 year timeline.

 

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Lyn on top form as usual, suggests scooping up cheap hard assets here whilst the market is having a tantrum (silver, BTC, oil etc) so long as you have a 3-5 year timeline.

 

yes, but I think that if we are right re the increasing uselessness of the vaccines in doing what governments have claimed, we'll see another shit the bed moment @JoeDavola once market fear kicks in.

Let alone what happens if ADE or widespread side effects start to rampage in autumn/winter in Europe and the North Americas.  My prediction right now is that we are on a knife edge re reality imposing itself over the media and government propaganda re the real impact of the vaccines and the virus, and once that becomes clearer there will be a panic, then a recovery as a new lie is set in place, and then the mother of all panicks once one government breaks ranks and starts to tell the truth - the virus cannot be contained by vaccines and has to be treated as endemic.  Singapore already did this to some extent.  

Add to that increasing civil unrest over the fascistic controls being introduced, and it could be a very interesting 9 months ahead.  What I do believe though is that the mother of all booms will happen once reality/good guys win, and that's where the oilies will become multi baggers in line with DB's long term thesis.

I think I'll buy back in with the cash float if XOM hits 40-45ish, GDXJ 35, etc etc.  Then hopefully in spring, a run up to new highs before - if the end of the world starts - a sell off of miners and the like before the BK.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

yes, but I think that if we are right re the increasing uselessness of the vaccines in doing what governments have claimed, we'll see another shit the bed moment @JoeDavola once market fear kicks in.

Let alone what happens if ADE or widespread side effects start to rampage in autumn/winter in Europe and the North Americas.  My prediction right now is that we are on a knife edge re reality imposing itself over the media and government propaganda re the real impact of the vaccines and the virus, and once that becomes clearer there will be a panic, then a recovery as a new lie is set in place, and then the mother of all panicks once one government breaks ranks and starts to tell the truth - the virus cannot be contained by vaccines and has to be treated as endemic.  Singapore already did this to some extent.  

Add to that increasing civil unrest over the fascistic controls being introduced, and it could be a very interesting 9 months ahead.  What I do believe though is that the mother of all booms will happen once reality/good guys win, and that's where the oilies will become multi baggers in line with DB's long term thesis.

I think I'll buy back in with the cash float if XOM hits 40-45ish, GDXJ 35, etc etc.  Then hopefully in spring, a run up to new highs before - if the end of the world starts - a sell off of miners and the like before the BK.

Conversely from what I can gather the vaccines are working. They don’t completely stop you from catching Covid but they do reduce the symptoms. Hospitalisations and deaths have fallen off a cliff. It’s now a very contagious but fairly mild flu and is being treated as such. 

[wherebee]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Conversely from what I can gather the vaccines are working. They don’t completely stop you from catching Covid but they do reduce the symptoms. Hospitalisations and deaths have fallen off a cliff. It’s now a very contagious but fairly mild flu and is being treated as such. 

I agree 100% that they are reducing symptoms for current variants.  However, I am not sure that the markets, or most people, will see a situation where the vaccines do not reduce your chance of infection compared with unvaxxed, but do reduce symptoms, as what they were sold.  If, as some doctors are saying, the vaxxed will also be more vulnerable to variants in future (as they evolve to infect the largest pool of victims, which is now the vaxxed in the UK), that will again hit perceptions of 'winning'.

Add into that the side effects are growing in number and knowledge.

Add into that the possibility for ADE (which I don't known enough about to know if it is a real risk).

In short, the market recovered from 2020 based on 'vaccines = beating the virus and back to normal'.  It looks to me like the story is 'vaccines = you have less chance of death but you'll still be unable to travel or spend money like you used to' and it's all a bit market destroying.

[dnb24]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Conversely from what I can gather the vaccines are working. They don’t completely stop you from catching Covid but they do reduce the symptoms. Hospitalisations and deaths have fallen off a cliff. It’s now a very contagious but fairly mild flu and is being treated as such. 

Compare this year to last year- hospitalisation and deaths fell off a cliff during summer too in 2020. This Autumn/winter will be the acid test of vaccines- however conclusions on their effectiveness will Have to take into account the “dry tinder” that was taken out of the population last year, and the “herd immunity”. 
If there is anything approaching normal excess deaths this winter or exceed normal excess deaths then conclusion on the vaccines would indicate they were useless or they are actually causing people to die.